2013 Pennant Chase

[SoxFanForsyth]

September is going to be a big month for the Sox and the AL East.

 

Discuss any and all activity that affects the race here.

 

Sox are 1.0 games up right now (about to move to 1.5 if the Rays lose today).

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Rays lose 11-1! Got to win the O's series and sweep the White Sox the series after. I will not settle for a WC.

[rjortiz]

Clay Buchholz pitched on Sunday for Lowell. Threw 38 pitches over an inning. He allowed three runs on a hit, and three walks. I'm not reading a lot into this start, seeing as it was his first since his injury. He makes one more rehab start, and is projected to come off the DL against the Tigers on September 4th. Matt Moore is coming off the DL on September 3rd against the Angels.

 

Buchholz will likely bump Dempster, and Moore will likely bump Hernandez. A big factor in deciding the race could be which starter returns to form the fastest. BP has the Red Sox at 93.5 wins, and a 60% chance to win the division. It has the Rays at 92.6 wins, with a 37% chance to win the division. Fangraphs is at 94 wins for Boston, 93 for Tampa. It's possible we could see a one-game playoff to determine who wins the East.

[rjortiz]

Also, my book has the Red Sox at -120, and the Rays at EVEN money to win the East. Might want to place a wager on that line, although I love the Red Sox at 9/1 to win the whole thing.

[sk7326]

Tie considerations:

 

A division winner or a tie for WC #2, only cases where we get a tiebreaker game ...

 

Tiebreakers:

 

2-way

 

1. Head to Head

2. Division Record

3. Record in last 81 non-interleague games

4. Record in last 81+X non-interleague games (X = as many games not involving the two tied teams as needed to break the tie)

 

Three way tie: Teams A, B and C ... game 1: A hosts B, game 2: winner of game 1 hosts C. Team that wins tiebreaker chooses which team they want to be. (host 2 games, or win one road game). Order of draw determined by a process similar to 2 team and not worth getting into

[SoxFanForsyth]

Man, how good would it be if the A's won the West, Tigers Central, Sox East, and then you got to see Price vs Darvish for a 1 game play in?

 

And then you got to see the Tigers and Rays battle it out while the Sox took on the A's.

 

That would be a beautifully set up AL Postseason.

[Thunder]

Man, how good would it be if the A's won the West, Tigers Central, Sox East, and then you got to see Price vs Darvish for a 1 game play in?

 

And then you got to see the Tigers and Rays battle it out while the Sox took on the A's.

 

That would be a beautifully set up AL Postseason.

That matchup may not happen. Assuming the seeding comes down to game 162, managers may not rest their aces for that one game playoff.

[Thunder]

With the Rays loss today, they tie the Sox in the L column. That's huge for us.

[a700hitter]

With the Rays loss today, they tie the Sox in the L column. That's huge for us.

We are back in control of our own destiny.

[rjortiz]

They'll never get rid of divisions, but it seems unfair that a better team out of the East will have to play in a playoff game, whereas the Rangers/A's get to feast on the Mariners and Astros 19 times a year.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

They'll never get rid of divisions, but it seems unfair that a better team out of the East will have to play in a playoff game, whereas the Rangers/A's get to feast on the Mariners and Astros 19 times a year.

 

They really need to just even out the schedule. Playing 18 games or whatever against each team in your division sucks. I don't know when that started but I bet it was based on capitalizing on the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. I don't care to see them so many times a year, or the Orioles, or Rays. It'd be nice to see other teams more often.

[User Name]

Yankees-Red Sox is not the only important rivalry that the MLB saw as a cash-cow.

 

Dodgers-Giants, Braves-Mets (when the Mets weren't sucking), Cards-Cubs, Mets-Phils have all been, at one point or another, veritable cash cows for MLB.

[sk7326]

the sport would benefit by more balanced schedules. For instance, 13 vs division, 8 against everyone else = 52 + 80 = 132 + 30 against other league. Could end up making it series' vs 10 teams instead of just 5. Basically means everybody in the AL will have 142 of the 162 games be the same - which is a large improvement over the current situatons.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure is nice when you pick up ground on an off day. Yankees lost too.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I vote for keeping the schedule the way it is for every team except the Sox, who should play 162 games against the Astros.

[Bellhorn04]

I vote for keeping the schedule the way it is for every team except the Sox, who should play 162 games against the Astros.

 

That sounds good, but every loss would create panic and hysteria in the Nation. Even moreso than losses do now.

[Youk Of The Nation]

True, true. Plus that f***ing hill.

[SoxFanForsyth]

ESPN has a nice additional option to their MLB Standings called "Hunt for October", which outlines what each team has left in terms of home games vs away games, opponents combined W%, etc.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/huntforoctober

 

As of today, the Sox have 30 games left, 18 home, 12 away, with a combined opponent W% of .517. ESPN projects them to win 95 games (18-12 in final 30 games, a .600 W%).

 

Also as of today, the Rays have 33 games left, 14 home, 19 away, with a combined opponent W% of .504. ESPN projects them to win 92 games (18-15 in their final 33, a .545 W%).

[Thunder]

ESPN has a nice additional option to their MLB Standings called "Hunt for October", which outlines what each team has left in terms of home games vs away games, opponents combined W%, etc.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/huntforoctober

 

As of today, the Sox have 30 games left, 18 home, 12 away, with a combined opponent W% of .517. ESPN projects them to win 95 games (18-12 in final 30 games, a .600 W%).

 

Also as of today, the Rays have 33 games left, 14 home, 19 away, with a combined opponent W% of .504. ESPN projects them to win 92 games (18-15 in their final 33, a .545 W%).

 

Great find. That's actually a really interesting feature.

[Behindenemylines]

Clay Buchholz pitched on Sunday for Lowell. Threw 38 pitches over an inning. He allowed three runs on a hit, and three walks. I'm not reading a lot into this start, seeing as it was his first since his injury. He makes one more rehab start, and is projected to come off the DL against the Tigers on September 4th. Matt Moore is coming off the DL on September 3rd against the Angels.

 

Buchholz will likely bump Dempster, and Moore will likely bump Hernandez. A big factor in deciding the race could be which starter returns to form the fastest. BP has the Red Sox at 93.5 wins, and a 60% chance to win the division. It has the Rays at 92.6 wins, with a 37% chance to win the division. Fangraphs is at 94 wins for Boston, 93 for Tampa. It's possible we could see a one-game playoff to determine who wins the East.

 

I agree. The teams are pretty close and the difference could come down to which team gets more out of their returning starter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fangraphs has added a Playoff Odds section to their site -

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

I'm not sure if it's exactly a replica of Coolstandings, or if they add some of their own stuff in there. Either way, they have the Red Sox with a 81.8% probability of winning the division, a 98.2% probability of making the post season, a 32.4% chance of making the ALCS, and an 18.1% chance of making the world series.

 

Oddly enough, the 18.1% chance of making the world series is the highest probability of any team in baseball. The Tigers (17.7% probability) are second.

[BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life]

Trying to work out who did that Maths?? one of the most optimistic of us. The % chance of winning div is somewhere in mid-high 60's now(%).

 

The playoff stuff seems much more solid. But the division maths for our division is crazy, they have the O's at

 

But you come up with some great resources RFF.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Rays now have 32 games left, of which 19 are away.

 

They blew a win last night in one of their very few home games left this season, which is going to put more pressure on them to win on the road.

 

With 32 games in 33 days, and a busted up bullpen from the KC game on Monday, they're getting lucky to have the rosters expand. Otherwise their bullpen arms could be shot.

 

Then again, who knows how well some of their rookies are going to come up and throw. You can't put too much reliance on them, particularly not in a pressure environment.

[BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life]

People are saying that Tampa have a good schedule because of the lowest opponents % but frankly , 4 games V LAA away is not exactly a "cake walk"

[Bellhorn04]

People are saying that Tampa have a good schedule because of the lowest opponents % but frankly , 4 games V LAA away is not exactly a "cake walk"

 

Yeah the Angels could give the Rays a hard time. The Halos have had a terrible season, obviously, and they're out of it, but they still have talented players and now they have nothing to lose. Just the kind of team that can be a real pain in the ass.

[Behindenemylines]

People are saying that Tampa have a good schedule because of the lowest opponents % but frankly , 4 games V LAA away is not exactly a "cake walk"

 

They have the whole 10 game west coast trip. Besides the Angels they also get the A's and Mariners. You know the A's will be tough because they still can win their division, and with Seattle you hope they get King Felix in one of those games. This is not an easy trip for the Rays.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Boy the A's have really hit their straps recently. Scoring a ton of runs.

 

Nice to see since the Rays are heading out there tomorrow.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Rays lose. 3 back (as of now, Sox have a chance to make it 3.5 with a win tonight) with almost 2/3 of their final games on the road.

[Thunder]

Rays didn't need Rodney to blow it today.

 

My goal is that the Sox be at least 3 games ahead of the Rays when their 3 game series in TB starts in 2 weeks. That is the last meeting. The Sox could put them out of the race essentially, but they have insurance. If they happen to get swept, they still have a lead.

[jung]

The team really under the gun in today's games are the O's. If they lose three games to the all important -column to the Sox they are about done. That is exactly what will happen if they go down tonight.

 

Buck was funny last night....just about emptied the pen. He does not seem to realize that he is just playing into the Sox hands as eventually he is left with nobody to go to while the guy on the mound slowly turns into a meat popsicle.