2013 Pennant Chase

[sk7326]

The team really under the gun in today's games are the O's. If they lose three games to the all important -column to the Sox they are about done. That is exactly what will happen if they go down tonight.

 

Buck was funny last night....just about emptied the pen. He does not seem to realize that he is just playing into the Sox hands as eventually he is left with nobody to go to while the guy on the mound slowly turns into a meat popsicle.

 

Tillman has been a puzzle for the Sox all season, so it'll be fun to see if they make any headway this time. Also good to see if Lester figured something out or was the last couple of starts a pitcher-park driven illusion.

[jung]

Fenway is such a tough place for LH pitchers to pitch. We might end up having to look at something other than whether Lester is a dominating force tonight if we are looking for fluke vs no fluke.

 

I will want to see Lester attack again tonight. If he attacks again, then I am convinced that unless he has nothing to offer tonight, he will pitch well. He may not dominate. He may not even win. But if he attacks, he will pitch well and for me, that will be enough.

 

Somehow when he does not attack he ends up not even distinguishing between hitters and he ends up picking at the corners pitching to some 125 lb soaking wet, 2nd baseman that simply does not pose a threat in the classic sense.

[rjortiz]

Fangraphs gives us a 91% chance to win the division as of this morning. I'm starting to think our focus should be on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs now. Tigers are projected to finish with 95 wins, the Red Sox at 96. Hopefully, we can take 2/3 to get some breathing room.

[Thunder]

I was listening to ESPN radio last night, and all of their experts agree that the Sox win the East by at least 3 games.

[Palodios]

Fangraphs gives us a 91% chance to win the division as of this morning. I'm starting to think our focus should be on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs now. Tigers are projected to finish with 95 wins, the Red Sox at 96. Hopefully, we can take 2/3 to get some breathing room.

 

It isn't just home-field advantage. Its also about being able to play a first round team who doesn't have their ace.

[Bellhorn04]

I was listening to ESPN radio last night, and all of their experts agree that the Sox win the East by at least 3 games.

 

There's still a long way to go.

[rjortiz]

It isn't just home-field advantage. Its also about being able to play a first round team who doesn't have their ace.

 

That's very true.

[Bellhorn04]

It isn't just home-field advantage. Its also about being able to play a first round team who doesn't have their ace.

 

? That's all luck of the draw. If you look at last year's wild card games you'll see most of the starters weren't the aces. The wild card teams can't really set things up like that. But you do have a better chance of facing a team whose rotation is messed up.

[Palodios]

? That's all luck of the draw. If you look at last year's wild card games you'll see most of the starters weren't the aces. The wild card teams can't really set things up like that. But you do have a better chance of facing a team whose rotation is messed up.

 

This is more or less what I meant. Either you're facing a team who went balls to the wall to get into the playoffs, and had the best guy available to pitch the wild card, or the team is firm in the wildcard slot and had their best pitcher start the wild card game. Either way, it is a big advantage that the #1 seed has over the #2 seed.

[Bellhorn04]

This is more or less what I meant. Either you're facing a team who went balls to the wall to get into the playoffs, and had the best guy available to pitch the wild card, or the team is firm in the wildcard slot and had their best pitcher start the wild card game. Either way, it is a big advantage that the #1 seed has over the #2 seed.

 

In theory, it is a sizable advantage. In reality, I'm not so sure it is. Last year the wild card winners were Baltimore and St. Louis. Baltimore lost to the Yankees in 5 games, the last 4 of which were ridiculously close. St. Louis knocked off Washington and had a 3-1 lead on the Giants before blowing it.

 

The wild card winners may be a little more tired than the teams they play in the LDS, but they may be sharper too because they've played more meaningful games recently. I think most of it washes out.

[rjortiz]

In theory, it is a sizable advantage. In reality, I'm not so sure it is. Last year the wild card winners were Baltimore and St. Louis. Baltimore lost to the Yankees in 5 games, the last 4 of which were ridiculously close. St. Louis knocked off Washington and had a 3-1 lead on the Giants before blowing it.

 

The wild card winners may be a little more tired than the teams they play in the LDS, but they may be sharper too because they've played more meaningful games recently. I think most of it washes out.

 

I think that has more to do with baseball being a crapshoot in general, not that the theory is incorrect. Not facing an ace twice improves your chances of winning the series, but I think too many people ridiculously inflate the winning probability when an ace is on the mound.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that has more to do with baseball being a crapshoot in general, not that the theory is incorrect. Not facing an ace twice improves your chances of winning the series, but I think too many people ridiculously inflate the winning probability when an ace is on the mound.

 

Seems about right.

[Palodios]

In theory, it is a sizable advantage. In reality, I'm not so sure it is. Last year the wild card winners were Baltimore and St. Louis. Baltimore lost to the Yankees in 5 games, the last 4 of which were ridiculously close. St. Louis knocked off Washington and had a 3-1 lead on the Giants before blowing it.

 

The wild card winners may be a little more tired than the teams they play in the LDS, but they may be sharper too because they've played more meaningful games recently. I think most of it washes out.

 

You're referring to a very small sample size. If the Red Sox face the Rays without Price, The A's without Colon, the Yankees without Kuroda, the Royals without Shields.... the playoffs are a crapshoot, but filtering out a team's best pitcher will always go in a team's favor.

[Bellhorn04]

You're referring to a very small sample size. If the Red Sox face the Rays without Price, The A's without Colon, the Yankees without Kuroda, the Royals without Shields.... the playoffs are a crapshoot, but filtering out a team's best pitcher will always go in a team's favor.

 

You're still going to see their ace on regular rest even if it's not in Game One though. There's an off day before the wild card game, one before the LDS and one during the series.

Edited September 2, 2013 by Bellhorn04

[Thunder]

We miss CC this weekend, but get Kuroda.

[sk7326]

I think that has more to do with baseball being a crapshoot in general, not that the theory is incorrect. Not facing an ace twice improves your chances of winning the series, but I think too many people ridiculously inflate the winning probability when an ace is on the mound.

 

It's not the pitcher advantage that makes the WC round such a big deal ... it is simply having to play a single elimination game, and having to win more games to win the world series. Division winners have to win 11 games to win it all, WC 12 and play an extra round. Once you get to the ALDS, then I think the other factors even out more or less - especially with a chance to reset the roster for the round.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not the pitcher advantage that makes the WC round such a big deal ... it is simply having to play a single elimination game, and having to win more games to win the world series. Division winners have to win 11 games to win it all, WC 12 and play an extra round. Once you get to the ALDS, then I think the other factors even out more or less - especially with a chance to reset the roster for the round.

 

That's the way I see it too. Being a wild card team is obviously very dicey because there's a 50/50 chance you're going to be done right away. But the winner of that game has just as good a chance as a wild card team under the old format did.

[rjortiz]

It's not the pitcher advantage that makes the WC round such a big deal ... it is simply having to play a single elimination game, and having to win more games to win the world series. Division winners have to win 11 games to win it all, WC 12 and play an extra round. Once you get to the ALDS, then I think the other factors even out more or less - especially with a chance to reset the roster for the round.

 

I agree with this. I assumed that this was already known, and was more interested in the impact of pitching probables on winning a series.

[sk7326]

I agree with this. I assumed that this was already known, and was more interested in the impact of pitching probables on winning a series.

 

I suspect if you can pitch your #1 guy twice it is obviously a good thing. Although I wonder how much of that is tempered by the randomness of a 1v1 matchup. I wonder if getting your #1 guy off the other guys #1 to a game you don't have to worry about would be better.

 

That is, let's say the other team has a true ace and three #3/#4 caliber guys ... would it make more sense to pitch your #1 against the ace, or would it be better to try to move one of the other matchups into a very high probability and let the randomness of baseball run its course with the Game 1 guy.

[rjortiz]

I suspect if you can pitch your #1 guy twice it is obviously a good thing. Although I wonder how much of that is tempered by the randomness of a 1v1 matchup. I wonder if getting your #1 guy off the other guys #1 to a game you don't have to worry about would be better.

 

That is, let's say the other team has a true ace and three #3/#4 caliber guys ... would it make more sense to pitch your #1 against the ace, or would it be better to try to move one of the other matchups into a very high probability and let the randomness of baseball run its course with the Game 1 guy.

 

I think that it would be banking too much on a win the day your ace pitches. If by some chance he loses that start, then there's a good chance that he doesn't make another one in a five game series, and even if he did it would most likely be against the other team's ace on full rest.

[sk7326]

I think that it would be banking too much on a win the day your ace pitches. If by some chance he loses that start, then there's a good chance that he doesn't make another one in a five game series, and even if he did it would most likely be against the other team's ace on full rest.

 

Really I think it often evens out, just musing on the possibilities. After all, even the most blatant mismatches (like some of those Yankees-Twins series from yore, or the 2007 World Series) were never really much more than 60-40. This isn't college football fortunately. Also there is the variable of the bullpen - both in actual ability (which is essentially random - few bullpens are good year to year), and how the manager deploys the pitchers. The managing of the bullpen is one of the few truly tangible differences a manager can make to affect on field success. It's one of the things Bruce Bochy did for SF despite being nothing special in a lot of other ways.

[rjortiz]

Really I think it often evens out, just musing on the possibilities. After all, even the most blatant mismatches (like some of those Yankees-Twins series from yore, or the 2007 World Series) were never really much more than 60-40. This isn't college football fortunately. Also there is the variable of the bullpen - both in actual ability (which is essentially random - few bullpens are good year to year), and how the manager deploys the pitchers. The managing of the bullpen is one of the few truly tangible differences a manager can make to affect on field success. It's one of the things Bruce Bochy did for SF despite being nothing special in a lot of other ways.

 

I wonder when we'll see a team that forgoes the starting pitcher and goes all bullpen. It's arguable that a team like the Rangers would be better off not using their fourth starter, and starting the game with their bullpen.

[Behindenemylines]

Sox schedule the next few weeks is a killer. Tigers - $panks - Rays - $panks again - then Baltimore. Even with the 5 game lead the Sox are going to have to beat all teams that are in the playoff chase.

[rjortiz]

Sox schedule the next few weeks is a killer. Tigers - $panks - Rays - $panks again - then Baltimore. Even with the 5 game lead the Sox are going to have to beat all teams that are in the playoff chase.

 

$panks? Why not just call the Rays the Gays while you're at it?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well the Sox also get Buchholz (or for the immature crowd, Buttholz) back in the Rays series, and have Lackey Lester Peavy and Doubront going against the Yankees. Then Buch Lackey Lester against the Rays, and Peavy Doubront Buch against the Yankees.

 

In that 10 game stretch, I expect the Sox to win 7

[mvp 78]

Buttholz is going to get pounded his first few appearances. He better bring the KY and have a stiff drink ready the way those teams can swing their sticks. He's definitely not going to have any clean innings. Might need to have some baby wipes on hand.

[Behindenemylines]

$panks? Why not just call the Rays the Gays while you're at it?

 

What a closet Yankee fan? Your team is winning today.

[rjortiz]

What a closet Yankee fan? Your team is winning today.

 

FU Dead $ux fan. Hope you like cheering on Big Poopy, and Shane Dickorino!

[rjortiz]

Buttholz is going to get pounded his first few appearances. He better bring the KY and have a stiff drink ready the way those teams can swing their sticks. He's definitely not going to have any clean innings. Might need to have some baby wipes on hand.

 

Really depends on his next rehab start. Apparently he was at 94 his last one, so that is an encouraging sign. He also didn't walk anyone.

[sk7326]

The results on the rehab outings have not been encouraging - but have to take the results with a giant lump of salt. Clearly he is working things out, make sure his arm remains attached to his body, that his pitches still work. We don't know what actual instructions he had for his rehab outing.