Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[a700hitter]

5/75 is a fantasy. He is a lead off hitter who plays CF with elite base stealing capability. Essentially add 50--60 to his double category because that is what he gives you with his stolen bases. I think that he will get substantially more.

[Orange Juiced]

5/75 is a fantasy. He is a lead off hitter who plays CF with elite base stealing capability. Essentially add 50--60 to his double category because that is what he gives you with his stolen bases. I think that he will get substantially more.

 

I'm with you. Like I said, I think the true price will be more like 6/120.

[Orange Juiced]

Actually, an interesting question would be this. It's a little game of chicken for Jacoby/Boras. If he thinks that at age 33, Jacoby will still be in line for one more big contract, then maybe what the Sox could do - since they will have the money to do it - is offer him a 3-year, $75 million deal. $25m per year as an AAV would likely blow any other offer out of the water. But you get (theoretically) the best 3 years of his contract, and then Jacoby, after putting up (hopefully) great numbers those three years, can go out and pursue another deal, and then let's say he gets a 4-year deal after that worth about $64 million - that means he ends up with a 7-year, $140 million deal.

 

The risk is that after those three years maybe he *won't* get another good contract. But at 33, there's still a pretty good bet that he will, I would think. He'd end up with more money this way than he would banking on a big deal now, perhaps. And yes, $25m is more than I think he's worth, but it would probably actually be a pretty nice situation for the Sox. Let JBJ and Gomes share LF, with JBJ picking up games and AB for Jacoby and Victorino when they need time off - you can probably get JBJ about 300-400 AB that way. Gomes does his thing. Nava is the spare outfield part, and Carp is the backup 1b (once they hopefully sign the Cuban 1b Abreu) and 5th OF.

[sk7326]

Actually, an interesting question would be this. It's a little game of chicken for Jacoby/Boras. If he thinks that at age 33, Jacoby will still be in line for one more big contract, then maybe what the Sox could do - since they will have the money to do it - is offer him a 3-year, $75 million deal. $25m per year as an AAV would likely blow any other offer out of the water. But you get (theoretically) the best 3 years of his contract, and then Jacoby, after putting up (hopefully) great numbers those three years, can go out and pursue another deal, and then let's say he gets a 4-year deal after that worth about $64 million - that means he ends up with a 7-year, $140 million deal.

 

The risk is that after those three years maybe he *won't* get another good contract. But at 33, there's still a pretty good bet that he will, I would think. He'd end up with more money this way than he would banking on a big deal now, perhaps. And yes, $25m is more than I think he's worth, but it would probably actually be a pretty nice situation for the Sox. Let JBJ and Gomes share LF, with JBJ picking up games and AB for Jacoby and Victorino when they need time off - you can probably get JBJ about 300-400 AB that way. Gomes does his thing. Nava is the spare outfield part, and Carp is the backup 1b (once they hopefully sign the Cuban 1b Abreu) and 5th OF.

 

I could see the Sox making an offer like that, 3 years premium value, maybe a no-trade.

[User Name]

Boras would never take that risk. He'll sucker someone into going 6/120 without having to cater to any shenanigans.

[dupree]

I don't think your opinion on JBJ is warranted. Mainly because of the fact that he's almost a sure bet to post a better OBP than Ellsbury right off the bat since he has a much better approach at the plate, and just needs more experience. I have a hard time fathoming what makes you think Ellsbury is a better bet to sustain a high OBP than Bradley.

If JBJ was the end all be all phenomenal player you think he can be, why has the Red Sox shown interest in Shin-Soo Choo? That just shows me that the FO dont have all the confidence in the kid. If Ells walks and we have Choo or JBJ in center or Vic moves over i see that as a downgrade from this years current team. I have a hard time fathoming that JBJ will be an upgrade or produce to anywhere close to what Ells would do if he is resigned.

[sk7326]

If JBJ was the end all be all phenomenal player you think he can be, why has the Red Sox shown interest in Shin-Soo Choo? That just shows me that the FO dont have all the confidence in the kid. If Ells walks and we have Choo or JBJ in center or Vic moves over i see that as a downgrade from this years current team. I have a hard time fathoming that JBJ will be an upgrade or produce to anywhere close to what Ells would do if he is resigned.

 

Choo is one of the league's best OBP guys ... that is more of a lack of confidence in Nava than in Ellsbury. Choo would not be playing CF here.

 

Bradley for Ellsbury WOULD be a downgrade, no doubt. But it is a 6 year age difference, and Bradley will be a capable starter from day 1. His glove is very good and his approach at the plate is so good that he can allow a .240 BA not to really be a problem.

[User Name]

If JBJ was the end all be all phenomenal player you think he can be, why has the Red Sox shown interest in Shin-Soo Choo? That just shows me that the FO dont have all the confidence in the kid. If Ells walks and we have Choo or JBJ in center or Vic moves over i see that as a downgrade from this years current team. I have a hard time fathoming that JBJ will be an upgrade or produce to anywhere close to what Ells would do if he is resigned.

 

Choo and JBJ are not mutually exclusive. This makes zero sense. Choo is not a CF, he's a corner OF. If they signed Choo, it would simply create a Choo-JBJ-Victorino alignment. You are grasping at straws.

 

And i don't see why you have a hard time fathoming Bradley putting up similar/better numbers than Ellsbury long term. He's not that good offensively save for the stolen bases. (Unless he were to rekindle some of his 2011 magic). This goes to show you how overrated Ellsbury really is, mainly on the basis of hope the for a repeat of what was clearly a fluke season.

[dupree]

Choo and JBJ are not mutually exclusive. This makes zero sense. Choo is not a CF, he's a corner OF. If they signed Choo, it would simply create a Choo-JBJ-Victorino alignment. You are grasping at straws.

 

And i don't see why you have a hard time fathoming Bradley putting up similar/better numbers than Ellsbury long term. He's not that good offensively save for the stolen bases. (Unless he were to rekindle some of his 2011 magic). This goes to show you how overrated Ellsbury really is, mainly on the basis of hope the for a repeat of what was clearly a fluke season.

Yes 2011 as it appears to be a fluke. And the seasons of injuries may have taken his ability to produce a season like 2011, but i still think he would be better suited in CF at Fenway for years to come. This offseason will be interesting to say the least. I dont think any of us thought 2013 would be a year to potentially contend for a championship and thru all the injuries still be in the thick of things and not having 2013 as a rebuilding year. Its a blessing that we can be discussing how to spend the teams money come this offseason than saying how to rip the team apart for poor performances. Ben has done a great job this past offseason and lets just hope he keeps working his magic and make all the right moves this offseason again.

[User Name]

Don't get me wrong, i like Ellsbury. What i don't like is Ellsbury at Boras' price.

[mvp 78]

Don't get me wrong, i like Ellsbury. What i don't like is Ellsbury at Boras' price.

 

I think this is how most people feel about him. He's a great player for the immediate future, but commands too much money.

[dupree]

I think this is how most people feel about him. He's a great player for the immediate future, but commands too much money.

Agreed. If Boras' wasnt his agent more people would be saying to resign him. Maybe we luck up and Ells tells Boras he wants to be a Red Sox for his career and go out and get him the most $ out of the FO as he can.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll say one thing, that was some impressive s*** by Ellsbury in the 7th inning last night-the stolen base followed by scoring from second on Pedroia's single. A slower player might still have been on second base after that single, instead of in the dugout with the tying run on the board.

[Orange Juiced]

I'll say one thing, that was some impressive s*** by Ellsbury in the 7th inning last night-the stolen base followed by scoring from second on Pedroia's single. A slower player might still have been on second base after that single, instead of in the dugout with the tying run on the board.

 

A slower player might have been thrown out at first by Hardy. It would have been a nice play, but if that was Napoli, Hardy would have gunned him out.

[sk7326]

Yes 2011 as it appears to be a fluke. And the seasons of injuries may have taken his ability to produce a season like 2011, but i still think he would be better suited in CF at Fenway for years to come. This offseason will be interesting to say the least. I dont think any of us thought 2013 would be a year to potentially contend for a championship and thru all the injuries still be in the thick of things and not having 2013 as a rebuilding year. Its a blessing that we can be discussing how to spend the teams money come this offseason than saying how to rip the team apart for poor performances. Ben has done a great job this past offseason and lets just hope he keeps working his magic and make all the right moves this offseason again.

 

Ellsbury has been good. I like his 2013, love it - he's our best position player. A guy who plays a quality CF with his speed and power - yes 2011 is a fluke but he is no slap hitter either - is extremely valuable. But the price and age combination is very dicey. Can he play CF at an acceptable level into his mid 30s? If so, he can slide down to 75% of his production and still be a 4 win player - not a bargain but very much a plus. But the odds against that are high - just as the odds against him increasing his production enough when he is forced to a corner position.

[Orange Juiced]

Choo and JBJ are not mutually exclusive. This makes zero sense. Choo is not a CF, he's a corner OF. If they signed Choo, it would simply create a Choo-JBJ-Victorino alignment. You are grasping at straws.

 

And i don't see why you have a hard time fathoming Bradley putting up similar/better numbers than Ellsbury long term. He's not that good offensively save for the stolen bases. (Unless he were to rekindle some of his 2011 magic). This goes to show you how overrated Ellsbury really is, mainly on the basis of hope the for a repeat of what was clearly a fluke season.

 

Currently, Ellsbury ranks #7 among all qualified CF in baseball with a .777 ops. He ranks 4th with a .356 obp. He ranks #1 (far and away) with 49 sb and a +45 sb/cs number.

 

Now, 700 made a good point about Ellsbury stealing so many bases, which is like getting doubles. So I took all the qualified CF in the majors (there are 13 of them), and I looked at their numbers and redid them. I took the sb/cs number (so you get penalized for your cs) and then turned that number of singles into doubles. So for Ellsbury, the numbers look like this:

 

Original:

534 ab, 159 h, 29 2b, 8 3b, 7 hr, 44 bb, +45 sb, .298/.356/.421/.777

 

Revamped:

534 ab, 159 h, 74 2b, 8 3b, 7 hr, 44 bb, .298/.356/.506/.862

 

So you can see that, wow, Ellsbury's ops suddenly looks MUCH better. Here's the list of all the 13 qualified CF. I won't give you all the stats...just their original ops and adjusted ops after doing this math:

 

1. McCutchen - .910 - .947

2. Choo - .863 - .873

3. Gomez - .848 - .906

4. Jones - .826 - .846

5. Rasmus - .817 - .815

6. Fowler - .780 - .800

7. Ellsbury - .777 - .862

8. Jackson - .753 - .758

9. Gardner - .753 - .782

10. Jay - .727 - .735

11. Jennings - .720 - .742

12. Span - .698 - .708

13. Bourn - .672 - .691

 

So based on these adjusted numbers, Ellsbury would be 4th among all qualified MLB CF in ops. Yes, the impact of his stolen bases (and stolen base success rate) is very significant.

[mvp 78]

Stealing second isn't the same as hitting a double. Your adjusted OPS is silly.

[User Name]

Ellsbury has been good. I like his 2013, love it - he's our best position player. A guy who plays a quality CF with his speed and power - yes 2011 is a fluke but he is no slap hitter either - is extremely valuable. But the price and age combination is very dicey. Can he play CF at an acceptable level into his mid 30s? If so, he can slide down to 75% of his production and still be a 4 win player - not a bargain but very much a plus. But the odds against that are high - just as the odds against him increasing his production enough when he is forced to a corner position.

 

Two words: Dustin Pedroia.

[User Name]

Stealing second isn't the same as hitting a double. Your adjusted OPS is silly.

 

^This

[Orange Juiced]

Stealing second isn't the same as hitting a double. Your adjusted OPS is silly.

 

Of course it's not the exact same. It's just one attempt to show how much of an impact stolen bases can have, and that Ellsbury's huge number of SB's, and corresponding success rate, are a major part of his value that traditional ops numbers don't account for.

 

I could just look at TOTAL BASES if you want me to - as I kind of outline in this post here: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16620-How-to-score-a-lot-of-runs?p=868454&viewfull=1#post868454. You'd still see Ellsbury's offensive value go up considerably in comparison to these other CFs.

[Bellhorn04]

Right now Ellsbury, Pedroia and Victorino are in a virtual dead heat in 2013 WAR values.

[sk7326]

Right now Ellsbury, Pedroia and Victorino are in a virtual dead heat in 2013 WAR values.

 

Ellsbury 5.0 fwar, Victorino 4.7, Pedroia 4.6 ... I'll knock Victorino down slightly just because so much of his WAR is coming from defense (which is just a flimsier metric than offense at this point). Victorino's season has been absolutely stunning for anybody who saw his corpse hop around last season.

[mvp 78]

^This

 

Ricky Henderson in 1982 had 154 doubles!

[Orange Juiced]

Ok, so I just ran the numbers based on b-ref's figures. Here's the formula for TOTAL BASES:

 

Batting total bases + stolen bases + bases taken (advancing on a fly ball, etc.) - caught stealing - out on the bases (out trying to take an extra base, etc.)

 

Here are the TOTAL BASE figures for these 13 guys:

 

1. Jones - 294

2. Ellsbury - 284

3. McCutchen - 266

4. Gomez - 253

5. Choo - 236

6. Gardner - 220

7. Span - 207

8. Jennings - 204

9. Rasmus - 194

10. Jackson - 193

11. Jay - 186

12. Fowler - 181

13. Bourn - 173

 

So this is a different way of looking at it other than my silly adjusted ops. And it STILL shows Ellsbury as much higher up the rankings as a traditional stat might show.

 

So don't miss the forest for the trees here. Whatever flawed method I use, the fact remains that his offensive contribution is much greater than numbers like OBP and OPS might suggest, because he is so dynamic on the base paths.

[User Name]

Stolen bases are nice, but come on.

[Orange Juiced]

Stolen bases are nice, but come on.

 

Stolen bases are pretty important. Jacoby doesn't score last night without the stolen base. I agree a single + sb is not the same as hitting a double. Just like a single is not the same thing as a walk. In terms of total bases accumulated it is, but not in terms of what it might be able to drive in. I know that, obviously.

 

But sometimes we think about stolen bases and taking extra bases on groundouts or flyouts or singles to right as just these extra things that really aren't that important. Players and teams that consistently do those things well will have a huge advantage over teams that don't. I'm just trying to make the case that Ellsbury's offensive contribution is much greater than his batting stats would indicate.

[User Name]

But not 6/120 good with JBJ waiting in the wings, which is the only topic of contention. And the supposed impact of his SB's would be much higher if he wasn't hitting for mediocre power.

[Orange Juiced]

But not 6/120 good with JBJ waiting in the wings, which is the only topic of contention. And the supposed impact of his SB's would be much higher if he wasn't hitting for mediocre power.

 

In my scenario I paint in the where to spend the money thread, I tried to make the case that the Sox could afford to keep Ellsbury at 6/120, get Abreu, and sign McCann. It would leave 300-400 at-bats for JBJ as the platoon guy in LF and the primary backup OF in center and right. That's a lot of at-bats for a rookie.

[User Name]

Ellsbury at 6/120 is an albatross. Stupid contracts are exactly what the Red Sox should be avoiding.

[Orange Juiced]

Ellsbury at 6/120 is an albatross. Stupid contracts are exactly what the Red Sox should be avoiding.

 

I actually recommend the Sox try to get Ellsbury to sign for 3/75. Yes, it's a crazy amount per year, but I think he'll be excellent the next three years and then they can let him go as JBJ enters his prime. They can afford this kind of short-term contract.