Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[dupree]

I just dont see McCann leaving ATL. So Salty will be our C next year as you had stated in your other thread. Id like to have McCann i just doont know if he will leave. If he does sign him if not im ok with Salty going forward. And i agree the Sox will have the money to go after Ells and i just hope they do. The next 3 years of Ells in center should be exciting to watch and maybe he can throw in a couple years like 2011 to get his cristics off his back.

[User Name]

Except that it's almost a certainty that Ellsbury won't repeat 2011 or even come close to it, and the criticism is warranted. Some of you on the Ellsbury bandwagon need to join the rest of us in reality.

[sk7326]

if Ells can put together more seasons like 2013 that'd be sufficient. If he put together 2011 repeatedly he'd be a hall of famer ...

[rjortiz]

Ok, so I just ran the numbers based on b-ref's figures. Here's the formula for TOTAL BASES:

 

Batting total bases + stolen bases + bases taken (advancing on a fly ball, etc.) - caught stealing - out on the bases (out trying to take an extra base, etc.)

 

Here are the TOTAL BASE figures for these 13 guys:

 

1. Jones - 294

2. Ellsbury - 284

3. McCutchen - 266

4. Gomez - 253

5. Choo - 236

6. Gardner - 220

7. Span - 207

8. Jennings - 204

9. Rasmus - 194

10. Jackson - 193

11. Jay - 186

12. Fowler - 181

13. Bourn - 173

 

So this is a different way of looking at it other than my silly adjusted ops. And it STILL shows Ellsbury as much higher up the rankings as a traditional stat might show.

 

So don't miss the forest for the trees here. Whatever flawed method I use, the fact remains that his offensive contribution is much greater than numbers like OBP and OPS might suggest, because he is so dynamic on the base paths.

 

You could look at BsR, or WAR.

[Navafan29]

I want a re-vote after we win the WS (and with the title having "re-sign" instead of the confusing "resign"). Gotta get the championship team back together. You can't just play 100% moneyball by changing the entire team every year. There's value in having veterans around. Makes the team feel like our team.

[Bellhorn04]

I want a re-vote after we win the WS (and with the title having "re-sign" instead of the confusing "resign"). Gotta get the championship team back together. You can't just play 100% moneyball by changing the entire team every year. There's value in having veterans around. Makes the team feel like our team.

 

It's a funny thing. Theo Epstein tried it both ways: after 2004 he tried to remake the team, letting Pedro, D-Lowe and Cabrera go. After 2007 he tried to keep it together, re-signing Schilling and Lowell.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I'd love to have Napoli and Drew back next year. I'd like to have Ellsbury back too, of course, but re-signing him doesn't make sense economically. Just hope that JBJ is the real deal.

[jung]

Even the very same group of guys is not likely to produce the same result and bringing back everybody just never happens anymore anyway. Fans have got to get used to things being as they are in MLB. You get the team you get for a season and that is about it. That is one reason why I think fans should just enjoy what they have for the time they have it. There are a couple of guys on this team that will likely get offers that the Sox would be insane to match.

[User Name]

It happened for the Giants, and they didn't even make the playoffs.

[Orange Juiced]

Personally I'd love to have Napoli and Drew back next year. I'd like to have Ellsbury back too, of course, but re-signing him doesn't make sense economically. Just hope that JBJ is the real deal.

 

Ellsbury is still most likely going to get an offer that is just the opposite of what the Sox have been interested in doing - something along the lines of 6/120 or even bigger. I do not see Boston matching or surpassing what he'll get on the open market.

[sk7326]

A little bit of turnover is a healthy thing ... after all, not everybody who gets a lot of run is going to keep improving. Some will just age, some will plateau ... also the competition will work to close the gap. Management has to do stuff to keep "been there, done that" complacency from setting in, especially during the marathon. Injecting some youth - adding players (not just for the sake of change, there has to be a baseball reason obviously) can do that.

 

Especially now, with baseball cracking down on amateur bonuses while the industry is simultaneously drowning in cash ... a lot of teams have money and there are few ways to spend it aside from on free agents. The market will seem inflated, but it's not - but the Red Sox (or the Yankees) will not just be able to put the winning bid on whomever they want. There is just an excess of supply.

[Dojji]

It's a funny thing. Theo Epstein tried it both ways: after 2004 he tried to remake the team, letting Pedro, D-Lowe and Cabrera go. After 2007 he tried to keep it together, re-signing Schilling and Lowell.

 

Ellsbury is younger than any one of Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, Lowell, and Cabrera were when those decisions were made.

 

Personally I'd love to have Napoli and Drew back next year. I'd like to have Ellsbury back too, of course, but re-signing him doesn't make sense economically. Just hope that JBJ is the real deal.

 

JBJ still has some things to prove as far as I'm concerned, especially offensively, and he could be an adequate CF and still represent a major downgrade since he's not anywhere near the basepath monster Ellsbury is.

 

I think people are hoping on JBJ more because he represents an alternative to a guy like Ellsbury who has flaws that displease them, than because of any evaluation of JBJ's own skill. I think that's extremely dangerous thinking and as likely to run a team into trouble as a stay-the-course mentality right now.

 

At the moment, I look at JBJ and see David Dejesus, unless that power comes through at least a little bit more. At his peak Dejesus was a very proficient centerfielder, but I'm not throwing Ells overboard for David Dejesus.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

I think folks look at Bradley and see an advanced approach at the plate, an above average CF - 2 things Ellsbury did not have as a 23 year old ... and a 7 year age advantage. There is also the track record of consistent improvement and achievement at each level of baseball.

 

You will lose the ability to steal 2nd with Bradley ... there is a pretty good chance you will have improved your ability to get to first base though.

[Dojji]

Not by all that much. Ellsbury is not exactly an OBP chump. Losing the dynamism of that speed is a lot bigger a blow than it looks on the surface. An extra .020 OBP isn't going to make up for it.

 

Again, replacing a guy who can do what Ellsbury can do with David Dejsus is not a trade-off. It is a straight-up downgrade, and will need to be compensated for in other areas if we don't want to see an overall team dropoff.

 

Not trying to insult Bradley with the Dejesus comparison by the way. I actually really like what Dejesus was at his peak and wouldn't mind too too much if we had a guy like that manning center for us for the next several years if that's the level he advances to. But that's what I see as Bradley's ceiling based on the observed skillset, and IMHO he needs to improve his plate approach, and more specifically his contact rates (cutting down on strikeouts) to get there from here. No matter how advanced your approach is, strikeouts are wasted at bats, and if you do that once in 6 times or more, it's going to be hard to get on base as consistently as you need to.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Dojji

[redsoxrules]

Ellsbury in a few years won't be able to steal bases like he's doing now. I would like to keep him around for a few years but NWIH I would give him a 100M contract. That would be another CC bust waiting to happen.

[Bellhorn04]

Ellsbury in a few years won't be able to steal bases like he's doing now. I would like to keep him around for a few years but NWIH I would give him a 100M contract. That would be another CC bust waiting to happen.

 

Well this is it. Bradley may not be able to replicate Ellsbury, but the cost savings will be enormous, and the money will be needed elsewhere.

[sk7326]

if you take Ellsbury's 2011 out of the equation ... .355 has been on-base high water mark. Now if he keeps this up (that was good enough for 19th in the AL this year) - that is a good player.

 

Bradley's 2013 was a rough introduction - he was promoted aggressively due to his spring ... so small sample size warnings abound. BUT, you break his batting down:

 

18 hits in 107 plate appearances ... 10 walks, 31 Ks, 2 HBP, 3 homeruns. So - you do the requisite BABIP calculations, and it comes out to .246.**

 

** Now things like BABIP are shaky statistics if the player has truly substandard ability, but from watching Bradley IMO this is a non-issue. (You or I step into the batter's box against a big leaguer - and a standard BABIP interpretation will make it look like you and I have a prayer of being major league hitters.)

 

So what if BABIP luck improves to something closer to .300 - a fairly average result? And what if he cuts his strikeouts down from 29% to 20% - basically to the level he had in the minors. You put those together, and suddenly his slash line moves to .245/.336. This is without any prediction of improvement in Bradley - which flies in the face of what we expect from a 23 year old at the level of baseball he has been in. The 3 HRs over this small sample for what its worth translates to 15-20 HRs over a season.

 

David Dejesus aims much too low for a comp since the glove matters - Bernie Williams might be a better one.

[User Name]

Not by all that much. Ellsbury is not exactly an OBP chump. Losing the dynamism of that speed is a lot bigger a blow than it looks on the surface. An extra .020 OBP isn't going to make up for it.

 

Again, replacing a guy who can do what Ellsbury can do with David Dejsus is not a trade-off. It is a straight-up downgrade, and will need to be compensated for in other areas if we don't want to see an overall team dropoff.

 

Not trying to insult Bradley with the Dejesus comparison by the way. I actually really like what Dejesus was at his peak and wouldn't mind too too much if we had a guy like that manning center for us for the next several years if that's the level he advances to. But that's what I see as Bradley's ceiling based on the observed skillset, and IMHO he needs to improve his plate approach, and more specifically his contact rates (cutting down on strikeouts) to get there from here. No matter how advanced your approach is, strikeouts are wasted at bats, and if you do that once in 6 times or more, it's going to be hard to get on base as consistently as you need to.

 

Are you seriously saying that Bradley's ceiling is David Dejesus? If you're basing this on "observed skillset" you need to buy some better glasses. You used to be the straight-up youth movement guy, and now that they've actually got some pieces to promote, you come up with these silly rationalizations and downright lackluster evaluations as to why Bradley/Bogaerts shouldn't be given a shot. At least be consistent on your arguments and use available data and projections instead of your awfully biased opinion.

[User Name]

Here's the general consensus on Bradley using the 20-80 scale:

 

Hit: 60, Power: 45, Speed: 50, Arm: 55, Glove: 70

 

That is right now, as a 23-year-old just getting his feet wet in MLB.

[iortiz]

BJ got 70+ M contract last year. I expect Ells getting nothing below 100 M. Right now he's one of the best lead off players in the majors. Problem with Ells is that he is made of glass. I would offer him something around 80 M/4y plus incentives which he could reach something around 110 M.

[BSN07]

Always been a huge Ellsbury but I'm not sold on his price tag. I've said before if it were Michael Bourn money I'd consider it. But If it's BJ Upton money + no thanks. I read something recently about some GM's saying they think he will get 100-150M. F that mess.

[Dojji]

Here's the general consensus on Bradley using the 20-80 scale:

 

Hit: 60, Power: 45, Speed: 50, Arm: 55, Glove: 70

 

That is right now, as a 23-year-old just getting his feet wet in MLB.

 

I think that hit tool is an overrate, and if you look at Dejesus' numbers at his peak, they're what I'd expect that player to be doing.

 

Over what Dejesus used to be, Bradley has few advantages. I think we forget that at his peak, Dejesus was one very solid centerfielder, even if his best playing years were lost playing on an obscure team in the middle of nowhere. If anything Dejesus had the advantage in contact and plate approach, and that's even without considering the lineups he hit in where there wasn't a lot of protection or support.

 

I'm sorry if not every prospect is a bona fide instant supahstahhh, but them's the breaks. If we get Dejesus out of Bradley, we're doing pretty darned well for ourselves. Personally I think Dejesus is a really good comp for Bradley -- and an optimistic one, and I'm comfortable standing by it.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Dojji

[yankthis]

"Gee, here we are going into game 6 of the world series with a lead. Maybe we should try something different next year?" The idea of letting Ellsbury walk is more absurd than any price he may command; when it comes to proven commodities, it's time to either pay up or shut up.

[User Name]

"Gee, here we are going into game 6 of the world series with a lead. Maybe we should try something different next year?" The idea of letting Ellsbury walk is more absurd than any price he may command; when it comes to proven commodities, it's time to either pay up or shut up.

 

This is a dumb thought process, and part of what created the monster known as 2012. The Red Sox need to avoid overpaying for talent unless that talent is about to enter its prime, not leave it halfway through the contract.

[redsoxrules]

BJ got 70+ M contract last year. I expect Ells getting nothing below 100 M. Right now he's one of the best lead off players in the majors. Problem with Ells is that he is made of glass. I would offer him something around 80 M/4y plus incentives which he could reach something around 110 M.

 

BJ got 70 + MIL because the Atlanta FO was quite stupid to do so. That's not a reason to give Ells over 100MIL

[User Name]

The problem isn't AAV, it's contract length. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox pay Ellsbury 100/4, since he's likely to perform at elite levels for at least three of those four years. Anything longer than that, and all bets should be off.

[sk7326]

"Gee, here we are going into game 6 of the world series with a lead. Maybe we should try something different next year?" The idea of letting Ellsbury walk is more absurd than any price he may command; when it comes to proven commodities, it's time to either pay up or shut up.

 

Teams without turnover are the ones you worry about. We have the best team in baseball for 2013 - almost assuredly that will not get better for 2014 without some change. There are more players leaving their peak years than entering ... and the opponents will add talent

[Bellhorn04]

The problem isn't AAV, it's contract length. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox pay Ellsbury 100/4, since he's likely to perform at elite levels for at least three of those four years. Anything longer than that, and all bets should be off.

 

Even $100/4 would hamstring the budget for next year though. Taking into account Peavy's 2014 full salary and Lester's option, the Sox are not going to have a huge amount of room under the $189 M threshold. Much also depends on what they do about Napoli, Salty & Drew of course.

 

They will have so much more flexibility by letting Ellsbury walk.

[User Name]

Food for thought:

 

Player A: 2.9 WAR, $14 million value, 20 million cap hit.

 

Player B: 2.8 WAR, $14 million value, 22 million cap hit.

 

Player C: 0.0 WAR, 0.5 million value, 17 million cap hit.

 

These three players combined to provide less than half of their salary in the (notably generous) Fangraphs value category.

 

This is a clear example of how big-money contracts for flawed, nearly-past-prime players can come back to bite teams in the ass.

[jung]

Plus as we have discussed here before, somebody is going to put a premium on Ells because he can become the face of the franchise for some team. We already have that guy.....Pedey. The Sox will end up looking at the dif between what Ells is worth at most in today's market just as a ballplayer and will likely have difficulty even with that with JBJ as close as he is to playing for us. Add the "face of the franchise" premium and that will just be too high a price for the Sox to be willing to pay. IMO, they will pass and will be justified in doing so.