Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[sk7326]

Ruiz, Salty, McCann, Pierzynski. Catcher is actually one of the strongest areas in the FA market this offseason.

 

Pierzynsi and Ruiz are old ... not multi year solutions ... it's really a 2 man market with a dropoff. If Salty promised to stop pretending he can hit righthanded, I'd be happy to give him 3 years. (at a market reasonable price)

Edited September 26, 2013 by sk7326

[sk7326]

McCann vs. Salty ... I think Salty will be re-signed. His defense seems to be improving ... throwing wise ... I have no facts to support this but in a recent game he threw out 3 runners. If he and his family enjoy living in the Boston Area will play a big role. Ortiz is an exceptional DH and perhaps the best ever but I would rather not have a full time DH and use the extra roster sport for a position player or arm. DH can be a great way to give some guys a day off and also bat right against left and visa versa.

 

Throwing he is not good, but he is a solid receiver otherwise - at least as good defensively as McCann - if he just went all Victorino and gave up switch hitting he'd be much more valuable despite the clear developmental leaps forward he has made the last 2 seasons.

[marklmw]

Throwing he is not good, but he is a solid receiver otherwise - at least as good defensively as McCann - if he just went all Victorino and gave up switch hitting he'd be much more valuable despite the clear developmental leaps forward he has made the last 2 seasons.

 

I agree ... Nava might be better off hitting from the left full time.

[User Name]

Throwing he is not good, but he is a solid receiver otherwise - at least as good defensively as McCann - if he just went all Victorino and gave up switch hitting he'd be much more valuable despite the clear developmental leaps forward he has made the last 2 seasons.

 

What do you base this on? By all accounts, Mcann's defense is rated as way better than Salty's.

[sk7326]

What do you base this on? By all accounts, Mcann's defense is rated as way better than Salty's.

 

Over the career - sure. But he has a lot more miles (despite close in age) - and the results have slipped. Both are probably middle of the pack by now - which is fine. McCann's reputation is stellar, but his ability to catch is on the decline in a way that Salty's ain't.

[User Name]

Over the career - sure. But he has a lot more miles (despite close in age) - and the results have slipped. Both are probably middle of the pack by now - which is fine. McCann's reputation is stellar, but his ability to catch is on the decline in a way that Salty's ain't.

 

Again, what do you base this on? Can you give me some evidence as to this occurrence? Because from simple observation, Salty's gone from "awful" to "palatable" and McCann has gone from "excellent" to "very good" even though he was recovering from an injury, and doing some research reaffirms this notion. You are terribly overrating Salty and underrating McCann.

[Palodios]

He'll be 33 coming off a broken wrist and playing in a park with a huge RF.

 

I'm not interested in Grandy.

 

You want a power hitter. Why not get the guy who has been averaging 34 home runs a year since 2009, all at a premier position?

He had freak injuries, contact-related, not durability injuries. If he could be had for 4/50, what's not to like?

[sk7326]

Again, what do you base this on? Can you give me some evidence as to this occurrence? Because from simple observation, Salty's gone from "awful" to "palatable" and McCann has gone from "excellent" to "very good" even though he was recovering from an injury, and doing some research reaffirms this notion. You are terribly overrating Salty and underrating McCann.

 

I doubt I am - I certainly don't think Salty's better. But for the price and the years - sure. Salty has been more durable, has been roughly McCann's equal this year, and projects to be a 120 start guy for longer. Metrics this year on the two were roughly the same - Salty's arm is much inferior for sure, but neither is any sort of Molina here. Let's put it this way - he has made a lot of improvement across the board, enough to be a legitimate starter for the next 3 years - and there are precious few catchers out there who can say that. Trading Salty's next 3 years for McCann's is not a slam dunk at all - especially on a per dollar basis.

[Palodios]

Anyone notice that Lavarnway has quietly been having a good season? .311/.342/.446/.788 and still not that many games under his belt. It would be phenominal to see him bring his .284/.373/.471/.844 career line in AAA to the majors.

[SoxSport]

Salty could be a top notch catcher if he could improve his defense the way he has improved his hitting. But he has limited quickness behind the plate because of his size, and he doesn't frame the corners enough.

[User Name]

The thing that concerns me with Bradley, is that the team seems to be using Bradley as a chip in the Ellsbury contract dispute, discussion, whatever word you want to use, rather than actually assessing Bradley as bradley. They're building a narrative about Bradley being able to replace Ellsbury right now, without actually proving that he can or has done, which makes me nervous that they might be overselling the kid. They've done it before.

 

What on earth are you talking about? This is a whole bunch of nonsense. Terrible, just terrible.

[Dojji]

Wow you surrrrre convinced me

[sk7326]

Will Bradley approximate Ellsbury 2013 in 2014? No. Will he be good enough that the Red Sox need not have to look at someone like Marlon Byrd or other marginally above replacement level fodder? Given the defense and approach - like the chances. What you look for is constant improvement - not going to get a finished product certainly.

[SoxFanForsyth]

JBJ isn't going to be as good as Ellsbury next year, but you can certainly bet that in 2-3 years, Bradley is going to be as good or better than Ellsbury is, and that is why you don't resign Ellsbury but you do go with your young talent that has 6-8 cheap years of high caliber, prime seasons remaining vs 2-3 excessively expensive prime seasons remaining.

 

It's a no brainer.

[sk7326]

JBJ isn't going to be as good as Ellsbury next year, but you can certainly bet that in 2-3 years, Bradley is going to be as good or better than Ellsbury is, and that is why you don't resign Ellsbury but you do go with your young talent that has 6-8 cheap years of high caliber, prime seasons remaining vs 2-3 excessively expensive prime seasons remaining.

 

It's a no brainer.

 

For me, I see Bradley's peak as good to very good glove, .350 OBP, 20+ steals, double digit homeruns ... while not Trout/McCutchen/Kemp ... at least Michael Bourn which ain't too shabby

[User Name]

I think that, with his approach, a .350 OBP for Bradley during his prime should be his floor, not his ceiling.

[sk7326]

I think that, with his approach, a .350 OBP for Bradley during his prime should be his floor, not his ceiling.

 

Certainly possible if not probable ...

[mvp 78]

I've heard him compared to Ken Griffey Sr. Not a bad comp.

[Dojji]

I think that, with his approach, a .350 OBP for Bradley during his prime should be his floor, not his ceiling.

 

Comes down to batting average. I'm just not convinced Bradley's going to reach the level of contact skill people are projecting for him. His contact rates in the minors are not absurdly high.

 

Sure he's young, but he's hit in the .270's range in the minors in both AA and AAA, and he's struck out quite a bit for a kid with only average to somewhat above average power. Throughout his run in the minors Bradley has struck out quite a bit for the type of hitter he is. Despite his good plate approach his strikeout to walk ratio is nearly 1:2. Not bad, but not exactly overwhelmingly good either. When you're a speed guy, making contact is the most important thing you can do to improve your ability to be useful. Bradley's contact tool is not advanced compared to some of his other skills, and that;s not a good area to be trailing in.

 

Again, I'm not saying Bradley's going to suck. If I had to put money down on him, I'd say put him in the Coco Crisp 06-07 level of offensive performance, but without quite Coco's range on the defensive end. Expecting much more from him than that is ambitious, especially in his first 3-4 years in the major leagues.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

How important is batting average really going to be if he gets on base at an above-average clip? For that reason alone, the Crisp comparison is moot. They're somewhat similar in skillsets but vastly different in approach.

[sk7326]

Comes down to batting average. I'm just not convinced Bradley's going to reach the level of contact skill people are projecting for him. His contact rates in the minors are not absurdly high.

 

Sure he's young, but he's hit in the .270's range in the minors in both AA and AAA, and he's struck out quite a bit for a kid with only average to somewhat above average power. Throughout his run in the minors Bradley has struck out quite a bit for the type of hitter he is. Despite his good plate approach his strikeout to walk ratio is nearly 1:2. Not bad, but not exactly overwhelmingly good either. When you're a speed guy, making contact is the most important thing you can do to improve your ability to be useful. Bradley's contact tool is not advanced compared to some of his other skills, and that;s not a good area to be trailing in.

 

Again, I'm not saying Bradley's going to suck. If I had to put money down on him, I'd say put him in the Coco Crisp 06-07 level of offensive performance, but without quite Coco's range on the defensive end. Expecting much more from him than that is ambitious, especially in his first 3-4 years in the major leagues.

 

Strikeouts (from a hitters view, pitchers entirely different) aren't really that much worse than other outs, especially if he is getting on base at a decent clip (you are probably better off just using straight percentage of PAs). And if he's not really compromising his extra base hits, then the ways you get to 1st base are fairly unimportant. Indeed, Rickey Henderson - and no, I'm not saying Bradley is going to be one of the top dozen or so players ever - was not a contact maven by any stretch.

[Spitball]

Bradley has gotten on base at a .404 rate in 989 minor league at bats. That seems to be a pretty good indicator that he can handle the lead off spot.

 

There are no guarantees when building a team or replacing players. The Red Sox have replaced Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez with considerably cheaper parts...and have been a better team. It is now time to replace Jacoby Ellsbury with a considerably cheaper part. It makes nooo sense to pay him the kind of money Boras will want him to make.

[Spitball]

I agree about the strikeouts.

 

Here is an interesting point. Ichiro Suzuki is greatly admired for his high batting averages, but he rarely walks. Adam Dunn is usually criticized for his high number of strikeouts and low batting averages, but he walks a lot. It simply amazed me when I realized Adam Dunn has a high career OBP at .366 than Ichiro does at .361. Dunn has a much higher OPS at .861 to Ichiro's .775.

 

Ichiro has long been overrated in my opinion and Dunn underrated. Strikeouts are not all that important and batting averages are not as important as OPS.

[marklmw]

I agree about the strikeouts.

 

Here is an interesting point. Ichiro Suzuki is greatly admired for his high batting averages, but he rarely walks. Adam Dunn is usually criticized for his high number of strikeouts and low batting averages, but he walks a lot. It simply amazed me when I realized Adam Dunn has a high career OBP at .366 than Ichiro does at .361. Dunn has a much higher OPS at .861 to Ichiro's .775.

 

Ichiro has long been overrated in my opinion and Dunn underrated. Strikeouts are not all that important and batting averages are not as important as OPS.

 

I agree with you. It would be nice if OPS replaced avg. when players step to the plate.

[marklmw]

JBJ isn't going to be as good as Ellsbury next year, but you can certainly bet that in 2-3 years, Bradley is going to be as good or better than Ellsbury is, and that is why you don't resign Ellsbury but you do go with your young talent that has 6-8 cheap years of high caliber, prime seasons remaining vs 2-3 excessively expensive prime seasons remaining.

 

It's a no brainer.

 

I'll take that bet ... you name the amount.

[marklmw]

For me, I see Bradley's peak as good to very good glove, .350 OBP, 20+ steals, double digit homeruns ... while not Trout/McCutchen/Kemp ... at least Michael Bourn which ain't too shabby

 

I am curious were the 20+ steals come from. He is having 0% success in AAA.

[marklmw]

I've heard him compared to Ken Griffey Sr. Not a bad comp.

 

Seriously ... who compares anyone to KGJ ... if that were the case his numbers in AAA would be much better. Who exactly compared him to KGJ?

[Bellhorn04]

I am curious were the 20+ steals come from. He is having 0% success in AAA.

 

His steal #s this year are surprisingly bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously ... who compares anyone to KGJ ... if that were the case his numbers in AAA would be much better. Who exactly compared him to KGJ?

 

The comparison was to Ken Senior.

[sk7326]

I am curious were the 20+ steals come from. He is having 0% success in AAA.

 

Just a ballpark number as he gets better at stuff - I don't expect him to be a "green light, anytime" guy by any stretch. But opportunistic, has good enough speed - high baseball IQ. It will get better. Doesn't really affect my view that much - steals are awesome to have but not at all essential to good offense.