Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[SoxFanForsyth]

I do not like the 'at this point' argument. Manny has HOF numbers so you have to be careful comparing a youngster to a player with a full body of work. Is Mike Trout better than Willy Mays ... Mickey Mantel ... Jim Rice etc.

 

Mike Trout has certainly shown nothing short of being a generational talent. He's put up back to back 10 fWAR seasons. That's pretty outrageous, so yeah, as of right now, he's on pace to be as good as any of them.

[Palodios]

It's 4 players, all of which are either blocked or have a surplus of talent along with them.

 

The beauty of having a surplus of talent is if some don't pan out or get injured, you're still in good shape. Look at how small-mid market teams have built their franchises. They hold onto their chips. We've seen the Red Sox and Yankees get shafted on so many trades. They're the best team in baseball right now, and they have superstars in the making in the farm system. Why not wait?

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not comparing this to the Dodgers. I'm comparing Stanton to Gonzalez, and surely you must see why it is a valid comparison.

 

Gonzalez was 1. One year away from FA, and 2. Six (!!!!) years older than Stanton when we traded for him.

 

With 2 fewer years of control.

[marklmw]

Because he's not hitting FA until 2017? You're getting 3 extra years of a cost controlled 40+ HR corner outfielder?

 

No doubt that many teams would love to have Stanton's bat ... no so much his glove. I have 2 questions for you. They are:

1. What players will the Sox have to part with to get Stanton?

2. What will our starting 9 look like next season should they accept your deal ... including the signings of any free agents?

[SoxFanForsyth]

The beauty of having a surplus of talent is if some don't pan out or get injured, you're still in good shape. Look at how small-mid market teams have built their franchises. They hold onto their chips. We've seen the Red Sox and Yankees get shafted on so many trades. They're the best team in baseball right now, and they have superstars in the making in the farm system. Why not wait?

 

Because waiting lets someone else swoop in and steal a future MVP bat in the outfield away from you.

 

With Stanton and Bogaerts on this team, you've got a chance of having two perennial MVP candidates on your team.

 

And the beauty of having surplus talent is trading the pieces while they're still valuable and turning them into a Stanton type player.

[Palodios]

Gonzalez was 1. One year away from FA, and 2. Six (!!!!) years older than Stanton when we traded for him.

 

With 2 fewer years of control.

 

Sure, but you're also giving up a considerably larger number and quality of prospects here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No doubt that many teams would love to have Stanton's bat ... no so much his glove. I have 2 questions for you. They are:

1. What players will the Sox have to part with to get Stanton?

2. What will our starting 9 look like next season should they accept your deal ... including the signings of any free agents?

 

1. My suggested package is Cecchini, Ranaudo, Swihart, and Betts. 1 top 20, 2 top 50's, and a top 100 (likely top 75, maybe top 50). You can absolutely get Stanton without giving up Bogaerts or Bradley, that's how deep the system is right now.

 

2. First off, getting stanton doesn't even really affect this because he's under team control until 2017, so you don't have to give him 25mm a year. But I would have Salty or McCann at C, Abreu (4/60) at 1B or Napoli (1/13) if you can't get Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Stanton (LF), Bradley (CF), Victorino (RF).

 

Lineup: Victorino - Pedroia - Stanton - Ortiz - Abreu/Nap - Salty/McCann - Middlebrooks - Bogaerts - Bradley

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sure, but you're also giving up a considerably larger number and quality of prospects here.

 

Not really.

 

Per BA, pre-2011 Rankings:

 

Kelly: 31

Rizzo: 75

Fuentes: Unranked, 2009 1st rounder.

 

The Sox still gave up a lot of talent for Adrian Gonzalez. But you're certainly going to have to give up a bit more for a 23 year old superstar corner OF.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Plus the Sox farm pre-2011 was much weaker than it is now. Much much thinner.

[marklmw]

1. My suggested package is Cecchini, Ranaudo, Swihart, and Betts. 1 top 20, 2 top 50's, and a top 100 (likely top 75, maybe top 50). You can absolutely get Stanton without giving up Bogaerts or Bradley, that's how deep the system is right now.

 

2. First off, getting stanton doesn't even really affect this because he's under team control until 2017, so you don't have to give him 25mm a year. But I would have Salty or McCann at C, Abreu (4/60) at 1B or Napoli (1/13) if you can't get Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Stanton (LF), Bradley (CF), Victorino (RF).

 

Lineup: Victorino - Pedroia - Stanton - Ortiz - Abreu/Nap - Salty/McCann - Middlebrooks - Bogaerts - Bradley

 

I like it. The numbers I am seeing for Abreu are 60m / 6.

[Dojji]

i really expect the Braves and McCann to get something done. if not, I still want no part of McCann. He's not a bad catcher certainly but he's about to be on the wrong side of 30 and he's got a lot of mileage on his knees.

 

I like the idea of the flier on Abreu, I think that's low risk high reward and we can eat the consequences if it fails it's a good move for a big market to flex its muscles because its upside still outweighs the cost.

 

Love the idea of bringing in Choo, he's an ideal Fenway type player.

 

I do not think that the Red Sox are prepared to pay what it will take to bring in Giancarlo Stanton. I think it would cost Bogaerts, simply because the Marlins are in a position with some pretty solid leverage and what they're trading is Just That Good (which is why we all want it). Even if not, it's still going to cost us a lot of our talent, and while we have a lot of talent, we don't have a ton in the upper minors just now. Not everyone who looks expendable is.

 

Besides I just don't get the vibe that he's on Cherington's radar the way Adrian Gonzalez was on Theo's, and given the misfortune we ran into in the wake of the Gonzalez acquisition the "go big or go home" faction in the Red Sox FO is likely still in the doghouse a bit.

 

would not mind a short years flier on Carlos Beltran if we really decide we need an additional upgrade. Beltran still has it and this team has no problem laying out some money on short year deals, this may be where we can put our footprint and get something done in FA to upgrade the team and manage risk.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dojji

[Palodios]

Not really.

 

Per BA, pre-2011 Rankings:

 

Kelly: 31

Rizzo: 75

Fuentes: Unranked, 2009 1st rounder.

 

The Sox still gave up a lot of talent for Adrian Gonzalez. But you're certainly going to have to give up a bit more for a 23 year old superstar corner OF.

 

You're essentially adding 1 top 20 prospect and 1 top 50 prospect. That's considerably more talent.

 

We're also talking about a Corner OF here. This is a guy whose fWar this year was 2.3 because he was a butcher in the field. If you pull in Stanton, he's going to have to replace the Nava/Gomes platoon in LF. Nava had a .880 OPS against righties this year, with a .400 OBP. Gomes has been hovering around .775 against lefties, but he's been at his best in clutch appearances. Hell, why not get Shin-Soo Choo for half the financial cost, and take his .390 OBP and .850 OPS AND your prospects?

 

There are just so many better ways to improve the team.

[User Name]

SFF is missing the forest because of the trees. The Red Sox lead the league this year in every meaningful offensive category except HR's, even though Ortiz missed a month, Drew was atrocious after being rushed back from a concusion, and WMB struggled badly.

 

Upgrading a corner OF position is not a need, and even less so sacrificing a significant portion of the farm. Stanton is not a fit. This type of "it's a big name, so let's go get it" mentality is the reason 2012 happened.

Edited September 25, 2013 by User Name?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I'd rather re-sign Salty and wait for catcher help from within.

 

Honestly big boppers are overrated. Lineup depth is more important than having a couple of juggernauts. We're leading the majors in run scored this year without anyone over 30 HR (yet, Ortiz has 29). The 98 Yankees won 114 games and scored almost 1000 runs without a single guy over 30 HR. If we give up 3-4 decent prospects for Stanton, fine, because Ellsbury needs replacing anyway, but after that I'd rather take the money we'd have to spend on Abreu (unproven) and McCann (expensive and about to hit 30) and binge on bullpen arms, maybe find a better fifth starter, re-sign a few of our own guys, then go find more Jonny Gomes' and Mike Carps as necessary.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Jacoby_Ellsbury

[sk7326]

Choo makes a ton of sense - yeah he is a little older than what you'd want to give 4-5 years to, but skillset is durable and he has been excellent playing out of position this year. Put him in LF, and no worries. Re-signing Salty is fine with me. Neither he nor McCann are great defensive catchers - and Salty is a better receiver (it's just the arm that has been a problem, and slowing the running game is a Red Sox issue forever). He will get a contract which will be a bit stunning, but there are literally no catchers with starting level talent available outside of those two. Salty is a legit starter - yeah you could use a righty partner to go with him, or just tell him to do what Victorino has done and just say F it - but he has legitimately developed over the last two seasons.

 

Stanton is a fun name - and a good player, and the sort of guy that makes sense for a longer commitment. All of that is true. But for the Red Sox, you can find enough corner production without selling the farm, and there is not much marginal sacrifice. He is not a transformational sort of guy - like say Felix Hernandez (imo at least).

 

BTW: Not saying a King Felix trade is realistic at all, but if you are going to sell the future, THAT is what you are talking about.

Edited September 25, 2013 by sk7326

[Palodios]

Stanton is a fun name - and a good player, and the sort of guy that makes sense for a longer commitment. All of that is true. But for the Red Sox, you can find enough corner production without selling the farm, and there is not much marginal sacrifice. He is not a transformational sort of guy - like say Felix Hernandez (imo at least).

 

Chris Sale is probably the only top tier starter who will be available, and he'd be pretty difficult to pry away as well.

[marklmw]

Stanton is an interesting play but he really is not a fit at this time. Victorino is Bostons right fielder for the next 2 seasons. If Boston manages its payroll well they can go after Stanton in 2018 when he is a free agent. What the Sox need to do this off season is:

1. Go out and get Marahiro Tanaka (IFA) Sox keep draft picks and prospects

2. Go out and Get Abreu (IFA) Sox keep draft picks and prospects.

Puig signed for 42/7. Abreu can might be signed for 60/7

3. Sign Salty to a 27/3 year deal.

4. Sign Ellsbury to a 85/5 year deal.

Edited September 25, 2013 by marklmw

[jung]

IMO what the Sox have done this year is at least as hard as dealing with a couple of juggernauts. It really takes a special bunch of modern baseball players, most of them with guaranteed contracts to have been as steadfastly dedicated to this process of generating offense. I would not take what we have seen this year and use it to determine that simply plugging in more mid-tier players will work as well.

 

Sox will probably be left having to determine if even they can continue like this in 2014 or beyond...... a thousand more pitches looked at than the next best team in that regard...are you kidding me???? A guy being a mid-tier player is no guarantee that he will sign up and agree to buy into what has been an almost team-wide adherence to a process and a plate approach. Not sure there is a formula for what they are doing....they surely did not expect it either.

[sk7326]

Chris Sale is probably the only top tier starter who will be available, and he'd be pretty difficult to pry away as well.

 

Sale's delivery raises serious questions about future durability ... it's not impossible that he retains the value, but he is a risky get. Hernandez is effectively unavailable I imagine for fan reasons at least, but if you are going to go wit a basket of prospects (Bogaerts included) ... and Seattle has almost nobody who they can turn into a meaningful path to being respectable again - there is at least a conversation to be had there. Arguably best pitcher in baseball, flawless mechanics, 2 years younger than Jon Lester ... I know, it's a dream and there is too much risk aversion among all parties to do something that big.

[Spitball]

Like Ellbury, Choo is represented by Boras and will be too expensive for a guy who does not hit lefties particularly well and has a history of injuries.

 

Boras Targeting $100MM+ For Shin-Soo Choo

 

By Zach Links [september 25 at 4:34pm CST]

 

Last month, one MLB executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that Shin-Soo Choo could fetch $90-$100MM on the open market this winter. It's a number that probably seems high to many, but agent Scott Boras thinks that figure is actually on the low side.

 

 

"As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market," Boras told Heyman. "I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."

 

Heyman checked in with three other execs on guesses for Choo - two said $75MM over five years and one threw out $56MM for four. Two of the executives were probably using B.J. Upton's $75.5MM, five-year deal as a comp, and the other was likely looking at Michael Bourn's four-year, $48MM pact with the Guardians (and possibly Nick Swisher's four-year, $56MM contract as well). Boras argues that none of those estimates are on the mark because, in part, they are working off of the assumption that five years is as high as a club will go.

 

The agent notes that Werth got seven years from the Nationals, and while Choo isn't exactly a spring chicken, he is the same age (31) that Werth was when he inked his deal. Choo also actually boasts a slightly better career slash line than Werth. He adds that Choo's value could also get a boost thanks to his ability to play center field and bat leadoff (though a look at defensive metrics like UZR and DRS indicate that Choo is clearly not cut out for center field).

 

If Choo's next deal is worth $100MM or more, it would be more than just surprising, it would be historical. Of the 43 players that have received nine-figure deals, only six - Werth, Zack Greinke, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Hampton, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran - had just one All-Star selection before putting pen to paper. Choo, meanwhile, has never made an All-Star team.

 

So far, Choo has already been linked to the Mets and Cubs, and he should have plenty of other suitors this offseason. Choo reportedly "loves" Cincinnati, but GM Walt Jocketty was candid earlier in the year in expressing that it would likely be difficult for the team to afford Choo beyond 2013.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In regards to Nava, you're paying for future performance, not past, and it's not even debatable that Stanton will be a substantially better hitter going forward than Nava, particularly out of Miami and into Fenway.

 

His defense is also extremely overblown. He has had a positive UZR in 2 of his 4 seasons. Plus sticking him in LF alleviates the issue.

 

Yes. You do need him. In 1 year, Ortiz is likely going to be done. This team needs to build a young, powerful middle of the order both for next year, and for years after that. Having Bogaerts, Stanton, and Middlebrooks gives you 3 30 HR bats in the middle of your order for the next 4-6 years.

 

This isn't a '2014' move. The reason you pay so much is so that you have that cornerstone bat that you need when Ortiz leaves.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF is missing the forest because of the trees. The Red Sox lead the league this year in every meaningful offensive category except HR's, even though Ortiz missed a month, Drew was atrocious after being rushed back from a concusion, and WMB struggled badly.

 

Upgrading a corner OF position is not a need, and even less so sacrificing a significant portion of the farm. Stanton is not a fit. This type of "it's a big name, so let's go get it" mentality is the reason 2012 happened.

 

Please, tell me how I'm missing the forest for the trees.

 

You have ONE more year of David Ortiz. Then what? Outside of Bogaerts, there are no big power bats to step in and solidify the middle of this order.

 

Who are you going to use to solidify the #3 or #4 slot?

[User Name]

Please, tell me how I'm missing the forest for the trees.

 

You have ONE more year of David Ortiz. Then what? Outside of Bogaerts, there are no big power bats to step in and solidify the middle of this order.

 

Who are you going to use to solidify the #3 or #4 slot?

 

This borders on the ridiculous. You can re-sign Ortiz or explore other options, of which there are plenty. We get it, you like Stanton, but he's not a need.

[User Name]

Please, tell me how I'm missing the forest for the trees.

 

You have ONE more year of David Ortiz. Then what? Outside of Bogaerts, there are no big power bats to step in and solidify the middle of this order.

 

Who are you going to use to solidify the #3 or #4 slot?

 

This borders on the ridiculous. You can re-sign Ortiz or explore other options, of which there are plenty. We get it, you like Stanton, but he's not a need.

[mvp 78]

SFF is missing the forest because of the trees.

 

UN? has a new catchphrase!

[User Name]

UN? has a new catchphrase!

 

"Please stop". Was getting old. I had to change things up.

[mvp 78]

"Please stop". Was getting old. I had to change things up.

 

I'm ok with it. Kind of a mouthful though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This borders on the ridiculous. You can re-sign Ortiz or explore other options, of which there are plenty. We get it, you like Stanton, but he's not a need.

 

You can only resign a 40 year old so many times.

 

You're getting one of the best hitters in the game at the age of 23 and building around him and Bogaerts, along w WMB and Bradley.

 

I don't see how looking 1 year in the future is ridiculous.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

"Please stop". Was getting old. I had to change things up.

I think I'm gonna start posting 'fail' again. You should too!

 

Talksox throwback mojo.

[Youk Of The Nation]

If that starts again I will be...displeased.