Mike Napoli performance thread.

[Dojji]

Nava as the regular 1B? LOL.

 

Reread what I said and tell me where I said Nava as a regular 1B was a good idea.

 

It's just a better idea than Middlebrooks.

[User Name]

Bro, you're delusional. First off, neither should be an option, but if it comes to that, WMB would be the better option. Not that you'd ever concede that point because of your obnoxious Nava mancrush.

[Dojji]

You're too fixated on home run power. Middlebrooks is not consistent, and until he shows some consistency, he isn't even as good a prospect as Nava was. That lack of OBP is not a minor flaw, and it's not going to allow him to be OFFENSIVELY effective in the big leagues until he gets it fixed. And until he does, I'll take the OBP guy, thankyewverymuch.

 

Realistically, Carp's in line before either one. But for all Middlebrooks' power, a .280 season OBP is not going to cut it at first base in Boston. It doesn't give him enough of a chance to have a useful at bat in a given trip to the plate, to allow his power to be more than an interesting curiosity. We saw the same thing back a few years with Wily Mo, and we'll see it plenty with other future power hitters that have no idea how to take an at bat. Give me a guy with plate discipline, even if he's less flashy or exciting, and I expect to win with that guy over Jonny Bigswing 7 times out of 10. The other 3 times representing the roughly 30% chance he actually does something useful at the plate

 

I mean hell UN, who did we win both of our World Series with at first base? OBP guys. Millar was great in 2003 but for his career he was a 15-20 guy with a .350 OBP, and we won with Youk before he broke out, when we thought he was a 15-20 guy with a million doubles and great defense. There's a lot to be said for an OBP guy at first base, if you're not so narrowminded you can't get past the caveman mindset of "him have power, him play first base."

 

I'm not even saying put Nava at first base. But if for some reason the FO did? It would not remotely be the first time they made that decision, and the last few times they tried it with a similar type player it worked out in our favor. So yes, your deeply-entrenched hatred for any idea put forward by myself notwitstnading, you really are going to need to make a case why your free-swinger is a better idea.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

Napoli has been had a .921 OPS since the All-Star break. Who is to say that maybe he just took some time to adjust to the park and his new surroundings. If he can hit that well going forward, what better do you think you'll find in Abreu?

 

I am not buying the 'adjusting to the park' theory. The Sox went after Napoli because he had always killed the ball at Fenway and his swing is suited to the park. You cannot double count the positives. I like Napoli ... but nothing has changed from his 2013 signing ... has it? If Napoli were 26 without any health issues I would sign him to a 60 / 6 contract immediately. Napoli might have 1 more good season left or 5 ... but the smart money may look at the opportunity with Abreu.

[sk7326]

A .280 OBP is unacceptable. But a .310 one with serious power isn't. After all, the latter is 2012 Josh Reddick ... the question is not whether WMB will be a high OBP guy - he won't be. But can he get on base enough to get to his power. That is entirely possible, and given his career so far clearly his power is not left in batting practice (unlike say Ryan Sweeney). He is also 25 and a terrific athlete - and those are generally guys worth buying some stock in.

 

Let's put it this way, his September slash is .283/.317/.500 ... that works, or at least is not worth giving up when a 25 year old ath-a-lete is doing it. After his return from Pawtucket clearly his approach was cleaner, there is some hope from a scouting perspective.

[jung]

There is some hope in WMB's case. The fact remains that he still simply cannot see the low, outer third of the plate slider for what it is...a pitch that is likely heading off the plate and a pitch that he can't really do anything with even if he could hit it because of his swing. Worse, pitchers have started feeding him that pitch AGAIN. I just don't know how much more incentive the kid has to have to stop swinging at that stupid thing and he still won't stop. IMO, he won't stop because he just cannot see the damned thing. His pitch recognition is just terrible for someone at the ML level. Once pitchers have him swinging at that, he even becomes vulnerable inside, his true strength at the plate. At best he should swing at that thing when he has two strikes and has to protect the plate. Other than that he should never, ever swing at anything that leaves the pitchers hand aimed below his belt line, on the outer half, spinning like a breaking pitch.

 

Once we get to the post season if pitchers have any sense what-so-ever, they will show him inside off the plate and chew him up with low outside sliders, also off the plate. I hate to say it but he will likely wear a path back to the dugout from the batters box once we get to post season play where everything everybody has learned about you as a hitter all year long comes into play every time you step to the plate. Once you are post season, any and every weakness you have as a hitter is exposed and exploited. Nobody gives a damn if that means you are left at home plate with your pants around your ankles.

 

Once he finds a way to lay off that pitch, he is a real deal, ML hitter with a legit chance at being something like a Joey Bats. Until then, he is meat on a platter waiting for the barbecue.

[marklmw]

There is some hope in WMB's case. The fact remains that he still simply cannot see the low, outer third of the plate slider for what it is...a pitch that is likely heading off the plate and a pitch that he can't really do anything with even if he could hit it because of his swing. Worse, pitchers have started feeding him that pitch AGAIN. I just don't know how much more incentive the kid has to have to stop swinging at that stupid thing and he still won't stop. IMO, he won't stop because he just cannot see the damned thing. His pitch recognition is just terrible for someone at the ML level. Once pitchers have him swinging at that, he even becomes vulnerable inside, his true strength at the plate. At best he should swing at that thing when he has two strikes and has to protect the plate. Other than that he should never, ever swing at anything that leaves the pitchers hand aimed below his belt line, on the outer half, spinning like a breaking pitch.

 

Once we get to the post season if pitchers have any sense what-so-ever, they will show him inside off the plate and chew him up with low outside sliders, also off the plate. I hate to say it but he will likely wear a path back to the dugout from the batters box once we get to post season play where everything everybody has learned about you as a hitter all year long comes into play every time you step to the plate. Once you are post season, any and every weakness you have as a hitter is exposed and exploited. Nobody gives a damn if that means you are left at home plate with your pants around your ankles.

 

Once he finds a way to lay off that pitch, he is a real deal, ML hitter with a legit chance at being something like a Joey Bats. Until then, he is meat on a platter waiting for the barbecue.

 

I agree with your about Middlebrooks chasing low sliders off the plate. Maybe he has to strap on the big elbow protector and crowd the plate like Victorino. I have also noticed that he has been taking first strikes on a consistent basis ... I mean balls right down the pipe. He may want to mix that up as well since he is a good fast ball hitter. Either way he is starting to revert as of late to his early season form. The off season will be as interesting as ever now that the fan expectations are once again sky high.

[dupree]

Now that the White Sox are about the sign Abreu, Mike Napoli will be back in a Sox uniform next year. So fear the beard in 2014 again.

[sk7326]

White Sox were pro-active. Good for them. Abreu from the scouting that you see - average bat speed, great resume - but already Cespedes' age. Lacks the athleticism of Puig or Cespedes. Basically you are getting a true 1B sort - not necessarily a ton of defensive value. He could be good - but Napoli will be fine for another year. Clearly, his raw power has not dipped. Wow.

[marklmw]

White Sox were pro-active. Good for them. Abreu from the scouting that you see - average bat speed, great resume - but already Cespedes' age. Lacks the athleticism of Puig or Cespedes. Basically you are getting a true 1B sort - not necessarily a ton of defensive value. He could be good - but Napoli will be fine for another year. Clearly, his raw power has not dipped. Wow.

 

White Sox did alright with Thomas and Konerko and now Abreu ... I wanted him.

[Station 13]

Now that the White Sox are about the sign Abreu, Mike Napoli will be back in a Sox uniform next year. So fear the beard in 2014 again.

 

If anything, it gives Napoli a lot leverage with the 1B market being absolutely horrendous. They might have to give him his original contract to retain his service.

[sk7326]

If anything, it gives Napoli a lot leverage with the 1B market being absolutely horrendous. They might have to give him his original contract to retain his service.

 

I don't think Abreu affected their view of Napoli either way. After all if Abreu warranted (to them) an aggressive sign, they would have laid out. 6/68 is a cheap price for the next Frank Thomas (which is probably a fair indicator of whether that is in fact true).

 

Napoli was going to be the top 1B in the market regardless ... he certainly warranted a QO. Now that's probably what happens - where he gets a QO while they work on a 1 + option sort of deal that makes sense for all. In particular defensively he has been kind of a revelation. Nobody will confuse him with Keith Hernandez or JT Snow or anything ... but he is clearly a good defensive player at that spot (which he never was as a catcher).

[seabeachfred]

Now that the White Sox are about the sign Abreu, Mike Napoli will be back in a Sox uniform next year. So fear the beard in 2014 again.

 

Let's certainly hope so Dupree. The Red Sox seem to always be mentioned when some hot shot prospect from another country is up for grabs. The fact is Abreu has holes in his swing, a slow bat and described as a hitter who can feast on No. 4 and 5, do ok against a No. 3. but be over matched by a No 1 or 2. Napoli, meanwhile, showed what he can do against a No. 1 and No. 2 already in this series. He wants to stay in Boston very badly and we need to keep him. Strikeouts or not he is a premium power hitter and run producer and, face it, he has been better at first base than a lot of us thought he would be. I'll post on a few more threads before I head for the airport.

 

Tomorrow is the 6th game of the ALCS and the anniversary of the "Bloody Sock". Can we use this as some mojo for the game?

[Dojji]

I'm happy with Napoli. I'd gladly take another year or two of that level of production at first base. And the way the contract is set up is pretty much a dream for us so great work Cherington.

 

That said, I hope we hang onto Mike Carp. Carp is a good platoonmate for Napoli, and as a lefty with no small level of power himself, is a nice guy to have in case Napoli's hip does give out at some point.

[dupree]

I'm happy with Napoli. I'd gladly take another year or two of that level of production at first base. And the way the contract is set up is pretty much a dream for us so great work Cherington.

 

That said, I hope we hang onto Mike Carp. Carp is a good platoonmate for Napoli, and as a lefty with no small level of power himself, is a nice guy to have in case Napoli's hip does give out at some point.

Napoli with be offered a QO for a fact. Then it very well might take a 3yr/39mil to retain him. And im ok with that. As soon as this season is over Ben will have to be busy. 1B, CF, & C are top priority. Id like to retain all current Sox at those positions. Nap,Ells, and Salty all need to come back for the next few years. All havethe their flaws but still it would be nice to have them back. I think Drew will be the odd man out in the free agents.

 

One more position id like to go on the look out for is LF. Thats after the top three priorities are filled. A right handed power bat to slot into the lineup behind Ortiz. I like the platoon of Nava Gomes and Carp in LF dont get me wrong, but id like to look into options out there.

 

As far as pitching this offseason, We can never have enough pitching. If a good arm is on the market i think the Sox needs to look into it. And im sure Ben will.

 

Just hope all the guys gets hot for the rest of the year and bring a Championship back to Boston.

[sk7326]

Keith Law's evaluation on the Abreu signing - obviously only one "prospect guy" view - excerpted for "fair use" reasons. Full story on Insider here: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=1419

 

I'm not surprised at all that Cuban star Jose Abreu received a huge payday, given this year's free-agent class and the increasingly limited ways for MLB teams to spend their money; he's one of the only potential impact bats available this offseason, and signing him won't cost a draft pick. However, the White Sox are a peculiar fit for him given what else is on their roster and where they are in the success cycle at this point.

 

Abreu has enormous raw power, probably a 70 or perhaps higher, on the 20-80 scale. The power is evident in BP and should translate to 25-35 homers a year in the majors. The concerns about him revolve around his bat speed and his conditioning, only one of which can be fixed or improved at this point.

 

The conditioning is a smaller issue; he's not a great athlete and has been heavy when scouts have seen him, although the same was true of Yasiel Puig last summer, and he worked to get his body into shape after signing, resulting in the player we saw this year in Los Angeles. Abreu is a below-average runner with the hands to play first base if he slims down, but otherwise is limited on defense and could end up at DH.

 

The bigger concern scouts have about Abreu is that he might have more of a “slider-speed” bat that will struggle with velocity, especially on the inner half. He's extremely balanced at the plate and very strong, with a setup like a right-handed David Ortiz, and very good follow-through for power to all fields. He hasn't faced many pitchers with plus fastballs, and between his size and the questionable bat speed, several scouts indicated to me that they're concerned that major league pitchers will eat him up with velocity on the inner half.

 

He's got a quiet approach at the plate, like Puig's, but he doesn't explode to the ball in the same way as Puig or current Cubs prospect Jorge Soler do, and Abreu's pitch recognition and plate discipline are largely unknown, putting a wide variance on his potential production in the majors. The fact that the swing is good is a strong positive, but he's coming to face the best pitching in the world and it would be disingenuous to forecast a big batting average based on all of these other question marks.

[Dojji]

As soon as this season is over Ben will have to be busy. 1B, CF, & C are top priority. Id like to retain all current Sox at those positions. Nap,Ells, and Salty all need to come back for the next few years. All havethe their flaws but still it would be nice to have them back. I think Drew will be the odd man out in the free agents.

i

 

they may be the priority, but I don't think they're equal in concern.

 

I think Napoli is going to be a relatively easy resigning and we do have Carp who's worth a shot if push comes to shove. We're not overloaded with depth at first base, and the solution everyone clamors for (moving Middlebrooks to first) is absurd because of how much it hides his strengths and plays to his weaknesses, but we do have a few options.

 

As for Catcher, that one is going to be interesting to follow. Salty has a pileup of talent behind him. Lavarnway, Vazquez, and possibly even Dan Butler are worth a look and with the Sox love of aging veteran backups, none of them are really likely to get much of one while Salty's here. Longer term, which you have to think about when extending Saltalamacchia, you also have Swihart to think about as well. It's hard to project kids in A ball but I have the feeling Swihart is going to be a keeper. There's so much talent behind Salty that it's not going to be hard for him to price himself out of Boston. If he moves on and Lavarnway becomes the next starter, exactly what have we lost? sure, we lose some experience, but replacing the worst defensive catcher in major league baseball with a mediocre defensive catcher is otherwise called an "upgrade." I don't hate Salty, but if his price is out of step with the team's needs I wouldn't sweat losing him too badly either.

 

Centerfield is the only one of the three that I'd term a priority that ought to eat a lot of Cherington's time. We don't have a lot there besides Bradley, and I'm not sold on Bradley quite yet, I tthink he may adjust to the majors slowly and with many consistency issues, due to some problems I see with his hit tool. For a speed guy, Bradley's not much of a contact hitter and I think he's going to show some weaknesses for big league pitchers to exploit in his first several seasons, likely yielding disappointing results offensively. The team put Quintin Berry into a spot Bradley could have easily won, so I think they're seeing many of the same things I am, and made the call to send Mr. Bradley a little message as a result.

 

We may not have a choice, but I definitely don't love the idea of throwing Bradley in as the starting CF with no backup plan. We can slide Victorino over, but we lose a lot of defensive value in our outfield, even if the only other outfielder able to butcher right field was not Daniel Nava, who should probably never see right field again in his life. Either way, we're giving up something that really helped us to get to where we are right now, and I don't like that bargain.

 

In short, the moving pieces as things stand right now look worst of all in center, kinda dicey at first, and really not too bad behind the plate if you're willing to tolerate a bit of inexperience. Since Beltran and Choo could factor into the solution in center, I'd contemplate all our options in the outfield before worrying too too much about first base or catcher. I think those problems are relatively solvable.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Dojji

[jung]

I don't think the Berry decision is really a referendum on JBJ. The Sox want Berry in place with a very specific task in mind. I don't expect to see Mr. Berry much if at all outside of that task.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Catcher, that one is going to be interesting to follow. Salty has a pileup of talent behind him. Lavarnway, Vazquez, and possibly even Dan Butler are worth a look and with the Sox love of aging veteran backups, none of them are really likely to get much of one while Salty's here. Longer term, which you have to think about when extending Saltalamacchia, you also have Swihart to think about as well. It's hard to project kids in A ball but I have the feeling Swihart is going to be a keeper. There's so much talent behind Salty that it's not going to be hard for him to price himself out of Boston. If he moves on and Lavarnway becomes the next starter, exactly what have we lost? sure, we lose some experience, but replacing the worst defensive catcher in major league baseball with a mediocre defensive catcher is otherwise called an "upgrade." I don't hate Salty, but if his price is out of step with the team's needs I wouldn't sweat losing him too badly either.

 

Wait...what...what in the name of God are you talking about?

 

I trust this is based 100% on your personal observations, since it has no relationship to any numbers.

 

Seriously, Dojji, that was brutal.

[User Name]

Salty may not even be the worst defensive catcher on the Red Sox. He's better than Lavarnway.

 

Also, i see Dojji has found a new binky in Carp.

[sk7326]

Wait...what...what in the name of God are you talking about?

 

I trust this is based 100% on your personal observations, since it has no relationship to any numbers.

 

Seriously, Dojji, that was brutal.

 

Brutal and extremely wrong. Salty has put a lot of work in and it shows. Yeah, he's not touching a Molina, but he's fine - somewhere in the middle of the pack.

[jung]

Much as I hate to admit it, I have to agree....Salty has not only done a tremendous amount of work to improve, he has in fact improved. I had credited him at the beginning of the year with improving his throwing which he has even if only marginally. His targets still leave something to be desired and he can still be kinda' stone handed behind the plate as well as stone chested, stone calved, thighed, forearmed...you get the picture. But even there he has done better this year. He has not so often been on safari for pop-ups, an area where he was really bad at one point. In addition he appears to have narrowed the gap a bit between him and the acknowledged better handlers of pitchers from behind the plate. If you went back about 20 years, well then Salty would be laughable as an everyday catcher. There were many better catchers back then and almost for all of baseball history before then. However based on today's standards, if Salty can keep his bat working per norm for him, he is passable as an everyday catcher. Never thought I would be saying that about Salty.

[sk7326]

Much as I hate to admit it, I have to agree....Salty has not only done a tremendous amount of work to improve, he has in fact improved. I had credited him at the beginning of the year with improving his throwing which he has even if only marginally. His targets still leave something to be desired and he can still be kinda' stone handed behind the plate as well as stone chested, stone calved, thighed, forearmed...you get the picture. But even there he has done better this year. He has not so often been on safari for pop-ups, an area where he was really bad at one point. In addition he appears to have narrowed the gap a bit between him and the acknowledged better handlers of pitchers from behind the plate. If you went back about 20 years, well then Salty would be laughable as an everyday catcher. There were many better catchers back then and almost for all of baseball history before then. However based on today's standards, if Salty can keep his bat working per norm for him, he is passable as an everyday catcher. Never thought I would be saying that about Salty.

 

If he gave up hitting right handed, I am convinced he would be a legitimately top shelf starting catcher (let's top 8-12 area). Considering the scouting reports in his Atlanta days, where most expected him to not be able to stay behind the plate, he has really done a good job making himself into a true legit guy.

[Palodios]

I just heard that Mike Napoli led the majors in UZR, and went to run and check. What? Seriously?

 

Re-sign the man.

[BornToRun]

I just heard that Mike Napoli led the majors in UZR, and went to run and check. What? Seriously?

 

Re-sign the man.

 

Yeah, he really got screwed out of a GG. The one thing I thought I was going to really miss about Gonzo was his defense but Napoli came in and was amazing with the glove all year.

[a700hitter]

I just heard that Mike Napoli led the majors in UZR, and went to run and check. What? Seriously?

 

Re-sign the man.

Napoli's fielding was one of the season's pleasant surprises. His fielding was consistently excellent, but even after watching him for the entire season, I am still surprised at his UZR. His durability was a pleasant surprise especially in light of his hip condition.

[seabeachfred]

Napoli's fielding was one of the season's pleasant surprises. His fielding was consistently excellent, but even after watching him for the entire season, I am still surprised at his UZR. His durability was a pleasant surprise especially in light of his hip condition.

 

Sign Napoli to an extension. He is too valuable for us to see leave. Salty? Who knows! Drew is most likely gone and Ells is as good as gone. I don't like that one either. Good and effective leadoff men are hard to find and I just believe that we will need one very badly next season. The most logical choice is JBjr but he strikes out too much and while he has a good knowledge of the strike zone, his strikeout totals legislate into a potential low OBA---and he doesn't possess that rare foot speed that can rattle a pitcher or be a catalyst for an offense, and I still wonder if he can hit Major League pitching on a consistent basis. I would like to see Jacoby resigned.

[Behindenemylines]

I have heard that the Sox have a multi-year offer to Nap, and he has said he wants to see what is out there. The Sox in turn have quickly become interested in Carlos Beltron. A Sox signing of him would end Naps stay in Boston. It is amusing to see both sides find a way to use signing elsewhere, or signing someone else against each other.

[seabeachfred]

I have heard that the Sox have a multi-year offer to Nap, and he has said he wants to see what is out there. The Sox in turn have quickly become interested in Carlos Beltron. A Sox signing of him would end Naps stay in Boston. It is amusing to see both sides find a way to use signing elsewhere, or signing someone else against each other.

 

And personally I think that would be a major mistake. First of all Napoli is a great fit for Boston, has produced here and wants to stay here. He is also a good defensive first baseman. Beltran is an outfielder with declining speed and range and is almost six year older than Napoli. We would become weaker in two positions...right field and first base. I think the Red Sox had better think very hard on this one. Beltran is a talented ballplayer but he wants a three or four year contract and being 38 next season that is insane. There is no reason to think that he would be a positive influence in the clubhouse as Mike has been since he's been a gun slinger for hire the past few seasons going from one team to the other. Cherington should know by now that we need Napoli and he deserves a nice new three year contract.

[jung]

I am not sure if the Sox are just trying to test how far off his lofty horse Beltran is willing to go but that guy scares me. I really would not want to see him in a Sox uni unless on a very short deal. Even then, I would have to think he would represent some sort of stop gap measure for the Sox and nothing more.