Mike Napoli performance thread.

[rjortiz]

Well, here's my proposed team for 2014:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16627-Where-to-Spend-the-Money-Next-Year

 

Primary Lineup:

CF Ellsbury

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Abreu

C McCann

3b Middlebrooks

LF Bradley/Gomes

SS Bogaerts

 

That's a 1,000 run team.

 

It's a good team, but the Sox would have to go over the luxury tax to field it. Also, while it would be an elite offense, the 2003 Red Sox couldn't even manage 1000 runs. Very hard to manage that accomplishment.

[rjortiz]

How many of those teams have big name 1B already though? NYY has Tex, Orioles have Davis, Nationals have Laroche. The Tigers have Fielder, the Angels have Trumbo, the Dodgers have Gonzalez, the Cubs have Rizzo. I just don't think there are many teams looking for a 1B, and the ones that are probably can't bid that high.

 

Tex or Davis move to DH. LaRoche is awful, and I didn't mention any of the other teams. Detriot could possibly move Fielder to DH, although I think they don't have that much available to spend.

[Palodios]

Tex or Davis move to DH. LaRoche is awful, and I didn't mention any of the other teams. Detriot could possibly move Fielder to DH, although I think they don't have that much available to spend.

 

Laroche is a 20 HR hitter, and I doubt the Nats want him to sit on the bench with that salary. Tex can't move to DH if Jeter (2014) and Arod (2015-) are at that position. Detroit has Vmart at DH. You didn't mention the other teams, but those are a few of the only teams who can probably afford a monster contract here.

 

Teams don't just bend over backwards to overpay for a guy with no major league experience. If they have a spot, they'll make bids, but all of the big spenders either have players already at the position, or would have to seriously inconvenience themselves to get Abreu here.

[Orange Juiced]

It's a good team, but the Sox would have to go over the luxury tax to field it. Also, while it would be an elite offense, the 2003 Red Sox couldn't even manage 1000 runs. Very hard to manage that accomplishment.

 

If you click on that link you'll see exactly how I think the Sox CAN afford that team and stay under the luxury tax threshold.

[rjortiz]

If you click on that link you'll see exactly how I think the Sox CAN afford that team and stay under the luxury tax threshold.

 

You aren't counting the 1/30 benefit share, and you aren't counting the salaries of 40 man roster players. That's at least $15-$17 million dollars.

[User Name]

People are projecting Abreu way too optimistically. And people are also speaking with some certainty that the Sox will be able to sign him without much trouble. Both stances are very much unreasonable.

[Palodios]

People are projecting Abreu way too optimistically. And people are also speaking with some certainty that the Sox will be able to sign him without much trouble. Both stances are very much unreasonable.

 

Who do you see capable of outbidding the Red Sox? Most of the top spending teams are locked in with players or have controllable players at the position. Of the top 15 spenders, only the White Sox, Rangers, Nationals and Red Sox seem like fits.

[User Name]

Who do you see capable of outbidding the Red Sox? Most of the top spending teams are locked in with players or have controllable players at the position. Of the top 15 spenders, only the White Sox, Rangers, Nationals and Red Sox seem like fits.

 

Because "who's capable of outspending" is not how it works. They will assign a value to Abreu based on what they think his production will be worth, and will not budge from it. If you look at it from that perspective instead of "We're the Red Sox, and we'll make the highest bid because we can", the playing field for any target becomes a lot more even.

[Palodios]

Because "who's capable of outspending" is not how it works. They will assign a value to Abreu based on what they think his production will be worth, and will not budge from it. If you look at it from that perspective instead of "We're the Red Sox, and we'll make the highest bid because we can", the playing field for any target becomes a lot more even.

 

What I am saying is that IF he is their guy, they can get him. Only they can make the determination on what that number will be.

[User Name]

What I am saying is that IF he is their guy, they can get him. Only they can make the determination on what that number will be.

 

Of course they can get him. But after they set that value, the result is completely out of their hands. You're contradicting your earlier argument about mid-market team making splashy moves with the extra money they may have or are bound to receive. And unlike Stephen Drew, who's a mid-tier FA, Abreu could be (emphasis on could) a franchise-altering bat. Who'd have thought the A's, of all teams, would end up with Cespedes?

[sk7326]

Who do you see capable of outbidding the Red Sox? Most of the top spending teams are locked in with players or have controllable players at the position. Of the top 15 spenders, only the White Sox, Rangers, Nationals and Red Sox seem like fits.

 

Here is the thing with the Red Sox moves at 1B. 1B is an easy position to fill. Adam LaRoche level production is not difficult to find - and you can cobble together a platoon for dirt cheap that effectively manages that. Look - the Red Sox have managed to basically get (if you use the $6M figure Fangraphs uses per win) $36 million of production for 1B/LF out of Mike Napoli and a couple of minimum salary-ish guys (Nava and Carp). If they think Abreu is a legit solution, they can set a price. Yes they'll pay a winner's curse premium (as you do for all free agents) - but if the bidding gets crazy, they have a very viable alternatiive. That is why QO'ing Napoli is a no-brainer here - he has been a very effective 1B here, and there is no reason to think they can't get another quality year of production from him. (in fact, going a year at a time with him would be ideal)

[marklmw]

Of course they can get him. But after they set that value, the result is completely out of their hands. You're contradicting your earlier argument about mid-market team making splashy moves with the extra money they may have or are bound to receive. And unlike Stephen Drew, who's a mid-tier FA, Abreu could be (emphasis on could) a franchise-altering bat. Who'd have thought the A's, of all teams, would end up with Cespedes?

 

Cespedes contract is 36M / 4 while Abreu is going will probably project at 14m per. At the time the A's needed Cespedes more than the Sox need Abreu now. I just feel that the stars are aligned with the Abreu situation as the Sox dealt Gonzalez to dump the contracts of Beckett and Crawford and now they have an opportunity to replace Gonzalez with a player that may out preform Gonzalez and for less money. Gonzalez was also being overpaid based on his numbers for 2012 and 2013. Sox will get by with or without Abreu but you have to admit Abreu should make the Sox better than they are now.

[marklmw]

Laroche is a 20 HR hitter, and I doubt the Nats want him to sit on the bench with that salary. Tex can't move to DH if Jeter (2014) and Arod (2015-) are at that position. Detroit has Vmart at DH. You didn't mention the other teams, but those are a few of the only teams who can probably afford a monster contract here.

 

Teams don't just bend over backwards to overpay for a guy with no major league experience. If they have a spot, they'll make bids, but all of the big spenders either have players already at the position, or would have to seriously inconvenience themselves to get Abreu here.

 

Palodios you make perfect sense to me.

[Behindenemylines]

If Nap continues into the post season like he has been hitting in September it will be hard for the Sox not to bring him back. The numbers he put up against the $panks this year also are a plus for him. He hasn't hurt them at first base like some have thought. I think you know what you will get from him. Though Abreu has a lot of potential, sometimes the Cuban potential doesn't translate to MLB. Cespedes has struggled in Oakland this year, and Puig has his issues with the Dodgers. I guess a lot will depend on how the post season plays out and how much of an impact Nap has.

[SoxSport]

I think they might stick with the current chemistry, unless Napoli gets blown away with a multi year offer. If they get deep into the playoffs, he and others will probably want to come back anyways.

[marklmw]

If Nap continues into the post season like he has been hitting in September it will be hard for the Sox not to bring him back. The numbers he put up against the $panks this year also are a plus for him. He hasn't hurt them at first base like some have thought. I think you know what you will get from him. Though Abreu has a lot of potential, sometimes the Cuban potential doesn't translate to MLB. Cespedes has struggled in Oakland this year, and Puig has his issues with the Dodgers. I guess a lot will depend on how the post season plays out and how much of an impact Nap has.

 

I believe that it will be very hard for Boston to pass on Abreu especially if they can sign him in the general neighborhood as Cespedes and Puig. Only 26 years old, not given up a draft pick or any top prospects, Power Hitter. I have a feeling that his price tag will be in the 13-14m range but the Sox had no issues signing Napoli for 39m / 3 until his health issues were brought to light. I happen to like Napoli and what he has brought to this team .... in the clubhouse, at the plate, in the field but an opportunity is an opportunity.

[a700hitter]

If Napoli finishes strong and produces in the post season, he will probably be the better value than Abreu. I can't imagine that Napoli will command a very long term contract with his hip condition.

[dupree]

I could see the Sox offering Nap 2 / 26 deal with the same incentives and terms as this years deal. Nap will prolly want more garunteed money but that is to be expected and i think the Sox finish up the same money deal as last offseason with more garunteed money but still a performance based contract.

[sk7326]

Sox will absolutely give Nap a QO. His contribution this year clearly justifies a 1/14. I think it's not at all bad idea for them - with Nap - to be content for another year. He has old man skills - and if his bat speed goes down another notch or so he is unplayable - so I'd hesitate to go more than a year or two at a time with him.

 

On a team with terrific approaches, his might be the best. What was it Buster Olney showed - Boston leads the ML in Pitches seen - by such a wide margin that 2nd place (Minnesota) is closer to 18th place than 1st (or something)

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox don't re-sign Nap it's not inconceivable that the Yankees could be interested in him as DH/backup 1B.

 

Nap's career line vs. NYY 342/457/651

Nap's career line vs. Bos 288/379/696

 

Signing Nap away from from Sox would be an excellent, spiteful PR move, pissing off their hated rivals, getting a player who murders them and also has great numbers vs. us.

 

As for his cost, well, they did pay Youkilis $12 million to be a stopgap for A-Rod.

[marklmw]

If the Sox don't re-sign Nap it's not inconceivable that the Yankees could be interested in him as DH/backup 1B.

 

Nap's career line vs. NYY 342/457/651

Nap's career line vs. Bos 288/379/696

 

Signing Nap away from from Sox would be an excellent, spiteful PR move, pissing off their hated rivals, getting a player who murders them and also has great numbers vs. us.

 

As for his cost, well, they did pay Youkilis $12 million to be a stopgap for A-Rod.

 

As I said before I like Napoli and Boston obviously did when they offered him 39m / 3. Boston knew the Napoli's numbers against them and in retrospect they got the right guy. Look at the turnaround this season. Amazing. Napoli is a key player and so his obviously deserves credit for where the Sox are today.

 

The reason why the Sox will sign Abreu is because signing Abreu now might be the equivalent of having another Big Papi for the next 8+ seasons. Papi is in his 11th season with Boston and he has been a monster. Napoli might have a couple more seasons left but that is it. If you can sign Abreu for Napoli type money and sign him for 8 years that will take him to age 34. Years 3-8 are years that the Sox cannot get from Napoli.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't give $100M (8 years @ Napoli $) to a guy who has never swung a bat in MLB.

 

It'd be better to overpay and shorten the years to 3 just in case he flops.

[marklmw]

I wouldn't give $100M (8 years @ Napoli $) to a guy who has never swung a bat in MLB.

 

It'd be better to overpay and shorten the years to 3 just in case he flops.

 

Well it is called risk reward. If Abreu meets or exceeds his expectations than 14m in years 5-8 will seem like a bargain and free up money for other needs.

[kapsis21]

Well it is called risk reward. If Abreu meets or exceeds his expectations than 14m in years 5-8 will seem like a bargain and free up money for other needs.

 

Rotation of Carp, Nava and Gomes > Napoli everyday

 

I don't care how much he's making, it's just disgusting watching him at the plate. They should avoid using him as much as they can, until he gets into some kind of grove.

 

I posted this in the game thread today, but in the last 15 games he has 23 K's and 42 LOB. He's a number 5 hitter, it's killing the team. Napoli probably couldn't hit a beach ball if he wanted to.

You want to take all that back don't you.. he killed the yankees and there is no better red sox than someone who can kill the yankees

[Dojji]

Napoli is what he is, He's a patient hitter who runs into the ball enough times despite his mediocre batspeed that he can maintain good end of year numbers. No one is going to mistake him for a great hitter, but he can atone for his mistakes with raw power most of the time.

 

From what I've heard about Abreu, he's going to be the same type.

[sk7326]

Napoli is what he is, He's a patient hitter who runs into the ball enough times despite his mediocre batspeed that he can maintain good end of year numbers. No one is going to mistake him for a great hitter, but he can atone for his mistakes with raw power most of the time.

 

From what I've heard about Abreu, he's going to be the same type.

 

Well, power and on-base percentage. The patience thing for a guy like him can't be overstated. Even when his ability to make contact went into the tank, he was STILL getting on base at a .300ish sort of clip - which is not good, but playable for a guy in a slump. He is a good hitter from the standpoint that he has a game plan and doesn't give at-bats away. Obviously if his "batted ball" skill were more like 2008 Kevin Youkilis, he'd be one of the dozen or so best hitters in baseball (like Yook was). But this is plenty good.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

You want to take all that back don't you.. he killed the yankees and there is no better red sox than someone who can kill the yankees

 

No, I actually don't. Yeah he kills the Yankees, but last time I checked there's 28 more teams. I enjoy watching him crush them, but Napoli isn't good enough to overcome 3 role players.

[kapsis21]

No, I actually don't. Yeah he kills the Yankees, but last time I checked there's 28 more teams. I enjoy watching him crush them, but Napoli isn't good enough to overcome 3 role players.

He is good in my books because with his approach its either a grand slam or a strike out. Now granted the grand slam in yankee stadium was a bitch hit but thats the bandbox... neways lets see if cherrington brings him back or not

[sk7326]

No, I actually don't. Yeah he kills the Yankees, but last time I checked there's 28 more teams. I enjoy watching him crush them, but Napoli isn't good enough to overcome 3 role players.

 

Oh he is ... no significant platoon spirit, gets on base at a good clip - obviously most raw power on the team. He is a bit of a "three true outcomes" sort of guy - but from a hitter's perspective, how you make outs really doesn't matter at all.

[marklmw]

Napoli is what he is, He's a patient hitter who runs into the ball enough times despite his mediocre batspeed that he can maintain good end of year numbers. No one is going to mistake him for a great hitter, but he can atone for his mistakes with raw power most of the time.

 

From what I've heard about Abreu, he's going to be the same type.

 

I think you had better do a search on Abreu ... Granted that he has not played one game in MLB but his upside is off the charts. No MLB team is going to show their cards with respect to Abreu but most wish that they were in Boston's shoes.

We can talk all day about Napoli but Napoli is not going to take the same contact that he had this season. He has done enough good things and any QO will not be incentive based like this 2013 contract. Sox will sign Abreu and that leaves Napoli off the team.