Xander Bogaerts

[Behindenemylines]

Probably too soon for Bogaerts--but not for Middlebrooks. He should be playing 3B right now. I don't care what he hits. He's needed on the field. Holt isn't a 3rd baseman. He's a SS-2B guy.

 

Synder's error on Saturday shows that he is not going to be the 3B that is going to help get you to the playoffs. He is a nice fill in, but not the solution. Middlebrooks makes that play and the Sox win the series. Sox either bring WM back up (Like the Mets did with Davis), or make a trade for someone like Michael Young. The division is ours for the taking this season.

[Standing Room]

It's not that he could adjust to AA. It's that he CRUSHED AA at age 20. You really think that doesn't mean anything at the big league level? Because the Red Sox have demonstrated for about 7 years now that they disagree with you.

 

The fact that Bogaerts is 20 years old and adjusted well to AA does not mean he'll be able to adjust easily to major league pitching right now, it just means he's developing well in the minor leagues and will hopefully be able to adjust well to major league pitching in the future. Don't give me bullsit about the Red Sox believing Bogaerts is ready to hit major league pitching because they called up Jed Lowrie for a week when they needed an infielder, and then sent him back down to continue his development. If the Red Sox thought Bogaerts was ready, he would have been called up. There's an endless list of players who adjusted well to AA and were never able to adjust to major league pitching. Lars Anderson ring any bells? He crushed AA pitching as a 20 year old as well.

[User Name]

Dojji, your argument is the definition of logical fallacy.

[jung]

Suggesting the Sox "know" or even could guess that XB is ready to hit ML pitching today would suggest they have a hard working, properly calibrated crystal ball. That is about the only thing that could help them make such a judgement at this stage of events.

[Standing Room]

Suggesting the Sox "know" or even could guess that XB is ready to hit ML pitching today would suggest they have a hard working, properly calibrated crystal ball. That is about the only thing that could help them make such a judgement at this stage of events.

 

But he hit AA pitching, what's the difference?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Suggesting the Sox "know" or even could guess that XB is ready to hit ML pitching today would suggest they have a hard working, properly calibrated crystal ball. That is about the only thing that could help them make such a judgement at this stage of events.

 

But he hit AA pitching, what's the difference?

 

They don't "know that he could hit MLB pitching".

 

They "know" that he has the ability to make the proper adjustments to hit MLB pitching. Kind of like JBJ, who struggled initially, but also shows the perpetual ability to adjust to what pitchers are featuring, and become productive.

 

I'm not sure how people don't understand this concept. The point is, he made the biggest adjustment in the minor leagues (A+ to AA), which indicates that he is ready to make the adjustment from AA to MLB. AAA is kind of a tweener in the development phase. Once you reach AAA, you're either organizational depth or you're ready to help the MLB team. Very little development occurs in AAA, and by the time a player reaches AAA, you generally know if they are organizational depth or an MLB option.

 

I don't understand how this is so confusing. Once you have made enough of an adjustment to post a .900+ OPS against AA pitching at the ripe age of 20, you've got the tools to make the same adjustments at the MLB level and help the big club, regardless of time spent in AAA.

 

AAA is not a development stage. It's a stage where you stay sharp.

[jung]

The difference in a practical sense is that ML pitchers can take a hitter's weakness and turn it into an 0-30 in the blink of an eye. You just do not see the steady stream of good to excellent pitching at the AA level that you do in the ML's. You see more polished pitchers in AAA but they are not up to a ML standard either and that is the problem, particularly in a year when you are trying to make a run.

 

Look at what has just happened to the Sox themselves, a team full of ML class everyday players. Stick a few pitchers in a row that are all in the upper half of the league's pitchers and what do ya' get....what 4 runs in 29 innings up till last night. That is my general comment about hitting in AA vs the ML's.

 

As for the specifics regarding XB;

What the Sox need out of a 3rd baseman is standard league average defense attached to a bat with some real pop and with the lack of HR pop in their lineup that means HR power.

 

XB has got 6 HR in 219 AB's in Portland this year. He has got a nice collection of doubles and some triples. So his slugging %'s are pretty good in spite of the lack of HR pop. However I don't see how that makes him the equivalent at this stage of WMB if WMB comes back right. WMB has 6 HR's in 81 AB's at Pawtucket while struggling to regain his confidence and changing his approach at the plate. The longer WMB goes at Pawtucket the more I think what we really see is him back in a Sox uni after the ASB.

 

If WMB still cannot lay off that low and outside slider, the one that is usually heading lower and farther outside, then there is no sense in seeing him back here. Others suggest that WMB must learn to take that pitch the other way. Good luck with that one. I think WMB is past saving in that regard and even if I am wrong, that is a shift that would likely take an offseason to realize at least relative to ML pitching. Before WMB was sent down even the balls he was hitting to RF and RCF were not efforts to go that way and if you would look at slow-mo of his swing at that time, you would easily see why. WMB "says" he is doing better now cause he is getting ahead in counts and getting more FB's to hit. Well in fact the only way to do that would be to lay off that s*** that he refused to lay off of. So, maybe I have the answer to my own question.

 

Finally, if we were to bring XB here, where do you think he would bat....8th, maybe 9th??? Do we really need another 8 or 9 hitter up here?

[mvp 78]

When will they know if WMB is able to adjust to MLB pitchers?

[jung]

When will they know if WMB is able to adjust to MLB pitchers?

 

You don't ever know until you see it but if WMB has been able to lay off that pitch at AAA I would be willing to believe he has a very good chance to lay off it in the ML's. If that were the case, I would bet on that before I would bet on XB.

[italstallianion]

When will they know if WMB is able to adjust to MLB pitchers?

 

When it's too late to do anything about it.

[Standing Room]

Suggesting the Sox "know" or even could guess that XB is ready to hit ML pitching today would suggest they have a hard working, properly calibrated crystal ball.

 

They "know" that he has the ability to make the proper adjustments to hit MLB pitching.

 

Huh? So they do have a crystal ball?

[Dojji]

Sure, if you want to cherry-pick SFF's post and ignore all the several different ways in which he made his actual point abundantly clear.

[Standing Room]

I'm not sure how people don't understand this concept. The point is, he made the biggest adjustment in the minor leagues (A+ to AA), which indicates that he is ready to make the adjustment from AA to MLB.

 

No, it doesn't. The jump from AA to MLB is a much bigger jump than the jump from A to AA.

 

I don't understand how this is so confusing. Once you have made enough of an adjustment to post a .900+ OPS against AA pitching at the ripe age of 20, you've got the tools to make the same adjustments at the MLB level and help the big club, regardless of time spent in AAA.

 

It's not confusing at all, you're just making assumptions that I'm not willing to make. Lars Anderson had a .962 OPS at AA as a 20 year old and he clearly did not have the tools to make adjustments and help the big club.

[mvp 78]

Sure, if you want to cherry-pick SFF's post and ignore all the several different ways in which he made his actual point abundantly clear.

 

Cherry picking? It's the very beginning of the post not some random sentence thrown in the middle.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No, it doesn't. The jump from AA to MLB is a much bigger jump than the jump from A to AA.

 

 

 

It's not confusing at all, you're just making assumptions that I'm not willing to make. Lars Anderson had a .962 OPS at AA as a 20 year old and he clearly did not have the tools to make adjustments and help the big club.

 

*sigh*

 

You don't listen to me. I said when he made the adjustment from A to AA, it showed that he's got the tools to make the adjustment from AA to MLB. He's able to adjust to pitching. Nobody is guaranteeing that he's going to bash MLB pitching right now. I have no idea where you get that connotation. The absolute only thing that anyone is saying is that once he is promoted to AAA, he's ready to be called up to the MLB. He doesn't have to sit and develop in AAA, so the argument that "You can't promote him, he's only been in AAA for 2 weeks" isn't valid because the development in AAA is minimal.

 

And please. About Lars. He had 41 good games in AA as a 20 year old. A total of 163 AB. By the time he had the same sample size as Bogaerts in AA (355 PA), he had a total AA line of .276/.377/.462, for an OPS of .839. Bogaerts, spending the time there as a 19 and 20 year old, had a line of .315/.392/.531, an OPS of .922, which is nearly 100 points higher than that of Lars.

 

Not to mention, as the league started to catch up to Bogaerts, he started hitting even better (.364/.472/.625/1.097 in final 110 PA at AA) whereas the league caught up to Lars, and he wasn't able to....wait for it.....adjust , hitting .194/.314/.371 in that same span.

 

It's not a good comparison. Bogaerts is a year younger, and adjusted properly.

[Standing Room]

I said when he made the adjustment from A to AA, it showed that he's got the tools to make the adjustment from AA to MLB. He's able to adjust to pitching. Nobody is guaranteeing that he's going to bash MLB pitching right now. I have no idea where you get that connotation. The absolute only thing that anyone is saying is that once he is promoted to AAA, he's ready to be called up to the MLB. He doesn't have to sit and develop in AAA, so the argument that "You can't promote him, he's only been in AAA for 2 weeks" isn't valid because the development in AAA is minimal.

 

Again, you're making assumptions. There's no way to know whether someone has to tools or not to make adjustments to major league pitching until they face major league pitching. And while AAA isn't a significant jump in talent, it does have some developmental value. The level of competition does increase slightly. When Cherington said it was a "warming" stage, he didn't say it had no value.

 

And please. About Lars. He had 41 good games in AA as a 20 year old. A total of 163 AB. By the time he had the same sample size as Bogaerts in AA (355 PA), he had a total AA line of .276/.377/.462, for an OPS of .839. Bogaerts, spending the time there as a 19 and 20 year old, had a line of .315/.392/.531, an OPS of .922, which is nearly 100 points higher than that of Lars.

 

Not to mention, as the league started to catch up to Bogaerts, he started hitting even better (.364/.472/.625/1.097 in final 110 PA at AA) whereas the league caught up to Lars, and he wasn't able to....wait for it.....adjust , hitting .194/.314/.371 in that same span.

 

It's not a good comparison. Bogaerts is a year younger, and adjusted properly.

 

I was using your criteria for someone who had the tools to adjust to major league pitching.

 

Once you have made enough of an adjustment to post a .900+ OPS against AA pitching at the ripe age of 20, you've got the tools to make the same adjustments at the MLB level and help the big club, regardless of time spent in AAA.

 

Lars Anderson had an OPS over .900 in AA as a 20 year old. And Lars Anderson is only one of many examples of hitters who adjusted to AA and weren't able to adjust to major league pitching. Not every Red Sox prospect to come through the system is a sure thing just because they hit well in AA, even if they're as highly regarded as Bogaerts. They're called prospects for a reason.

[win red sox]

xander crushed another homerun tonight, that's 6 in 97 ab's in pawtucket. last ten games his ops is .951

[Dojji]

Cherry picking? It's the very beginning of the post not some random sentence thrown in the middle.

 

And when you strip away all the clarification that comes afterwards and impose your own interpretation of the thesis, that, my friend, is cherry-picking.

[Standing Room]

And when you strip away all the clarification that comes afterwards and impose your own interpretation of the thesis, that, my friend, is cherry-picking.

 

It was a joke about a crystal ball, lighten up. I addressed his other points as well.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lars had 41 games in AA as a 20 year old. It was after that when the pitchers found his weakness, exploited it, and he struggled. Pitchers tried to find Bogaerts weakness, exploit it, and Bogaerts adjusted.

 

That's why Lars struggled mightily in his 21 year old season in AA. He didn't make the adjustments.

 

Nobody knows if anyone is going to be able to make the adjustments in the MLB. What I'm saying is that the test to see if a player is capable of making those adjustments is his jump from A to AA. If he is able to pass that test, then he's ready for the next big test, which is MLB pitching.

[jung]

Well now I am not sure what we are talking about which could be my fault. So, I am not blaming anybody else. But to me, deciding that the next big test for XB is MLB and determining that the chances are good that the player will pass that test are two different things.

 

All players are different for one thing. I said in the winter and in the spring that to me, Iggy was the kind of player that would no longer improve at any level of minor league ball and that the Sox or some team would have to risk it and bring him up to MLB for him to shine. There are some players that are like that just like there are some football players that suck in practice but are terrific on game day. Being here has instilled in Iggy a desire, more like a necessity to get on base any way he can. I think we would all acknowledge that the change he made in his swing, combined with that necessity in his own mind is what has made all the dif in the world. Iggy has decided that he will not allow Farrell to open the door even a crack to sending him back down again.

 

Maybe the biggest problem for me in discussions about XB is that we have WMB and if WMB continues to progress and you gave me the choice between XB and WMB because the Sox decide they need somebody better than Holt or Snyder playing 3rd and want to push Iggy to SS full time, I take WMB. I might not make that decision in a year when we were not leading the division but in fact we are leading the division.

[Standing Room]

Nobody knows if anyone is going to be able to make the adjustments in the MLB. What I'm saying is that the test to see if a player is capable of making those adjustments is his jump from A to AA. If he is able to pass that test, then he's ready for the next big test, which is MLB pitching.

 

This statement is ridiculous. The test to see if a player can adjust to major league pitchers is facing major league pitchers. There are hitters that make a career out of playing at AAA and never learn to adjust to major league pitching.

[Standing Room]

Another reason Bogaerts is in the minors still is because he just started to get some playing time at positions other than shortstop so that he could be more helpful to the team once he eventually is called up. Bogaerts learning multiple positions helps the team in multiple ways. It allows Iglesias to play shortstop full-time, and it allows us to have three of Iglesias, Drew, Bogaerts and Middlebrooks all on the roster at the same time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

All this kid does is mash. Another HR last night. Now OPS'ing .832 after a tough start. Hitting .324/.419/.568 in July.

 

He's 20.

[rjortiz]

Apparently he's going to be on Dave Cameron's top 50 trade value list.

[User Name]

If he does not exhaust his rookie status this year, i'll be surprised if he's not the consensus top prospect in baseball.

[Standing Room]

If he does not exhaust his rookie status this year, i'll be surprised if he's not the consensus top prospect in baseball.

 

Byron Buxton should be the best prospect in baseball. He doesn't have the power of Bogaerts, but he's a legit 5 tool player with plus speed.

[User Name]

Buxton plays OF, and positional value is important in prospect evaluation. We'll see.

[redsoxbeatz]

if Drew could just go to the 60 Day DL by the end of July or Early August that would be AWESOME!

 

Xander promoted to SS. Iggy to 3b.

[mvp 78]

This statement is ridiculous. The test to see if a player can adjust to major league pitchers is facing major league pitchers. There are hitters that make a career out of playing at AAA and never learn to adjust to major league pitching.

 

Prime example.

 

Edit: It's a really tiny pic of Rick Lancelotti.