Changing Your Expectations?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Coming into this season, very few people thought this was a playoff team. Even fewer thought this team would compete for a division title.

 

We're 67 games into the year now, and the Sox are 15 games over .500. They've been playing a a 99-100 win pace now for over 41% of the season.

 

Obviously everyone loves (or should love) this team right now, they're playing well, they're 8-3 in the most difficult month on the schedule, and they're up by 3 games in the division.

 

So, how have your feelings and expectations changed from February to June? Have you gone from expecting them to be a .500 team to now expecting them to win a WC slot? Or would a WC slot be disappointing at this point, have you gotten greedy and now expect a division title? Or are you the Goldman Sachs of Sox fans and now expect a deep, deep playoff run well into October?

[Palodios]

While I would be disappointed if the Sox don't take the division, I think there is a pretty good chance they take one of the Wild card spots.

 

With Buchholz getting worn down, and Lester in a rut, I have concerns with the top of the rotation. I don't know about anyone else, but I've been pleasantly surprised about what the system's depth has given us for production -- Carp, Wilson, Aceves, Iggy, Bradley and even Jose la Torre have all contributed in big ways. Still, I'm doubtful that they will be able to hold off the Yankees once they've got a real lineup again.

[Thunder]

I expected them to at least contend for a playoff spot. If my expectations have changed at all, they have gone up. Especially with the current Yankees slide over the past 2-3 weeks, I think the Sox can easily win the division by 5 or so games over the Yankees and Orioles.

 

This team is different. Even on nights when they face pitchers like Price, Sabathia, and Lee (just using actual games from this season), they get them out of the game by the 7th, giving them a chance to come back. The reason why they are in these games s their own pitching. Buchholz is the AL Cy Young, no doubt about it. Lester has been primarily good, but with some bad starts. Lackey has a low ERA, but no run support. Dempster and Doubront have been good when they need to be. Even Aceves has come up big in the spot starts he has made. Pitching has kept the Sox in games, giving their offense a chance, even when they are not having a bad night. Take last Thursday against the Rangers as an example. The Sox left 10 men on base through 6, but Lester had a quality start to keep them in the game, and Ortiz eventually won it. Last year, that never would have happened.

 

That is why this team is winning games. They know they're not perfect, so they play to they're strengths. It has been ridiculously fun to watch so far.

[SoxFanForsyth]

While I would be disappointed if the Sox don't take the division, I think there is a pretty good chance they take one of the Wild card spots.

 

With Buchholz getting worn down, and Lester in a rut, I have enough concerns with the top of the rotation. I don't know about anyone else, but I've been pleasantly surprised about what the system's depth has given us from production -- Carp, Wilson, Aceves, Iggy, Bradley and even Jose la Torre have all contributed in big ways. Still, I'm concerned that they won't be able to hold off the Yankees once they've got a real lineup again.

 

I think, after the past 2-3 years, I have come to realize that about 95% of the time, major-injured (i.e. Tex, Grandy, ARod, Jeter, etc) players come back and perform well below their career norm for the majority of the season.

 

I understand it's nice for the Yanks to get those names back in the lineup, but really, that's all they are, names.

 

Not only that, but their replacements right now (Brignac/Nix, Youkilis, Wells, etc) are all starting to find their water level. And it's not like Grandy/ARod/Jeter are due back anytime soon. All the while, Tex is hitting .184/.245/.409 since he's come back, so he's hardly bolstered the lineup.

 

Nix is hitting .250/.316/.302, Youk is hitting .235/.318/.367, and Wells has completely fallen off a cliff and has the exact same OPS as he did last year at this point (keep in mind his OPS on the morning of 5/1 was .911. He's down to .682.

 

The Yankees offense has been nothing short of putrid, and even with the returning guys, Tex and Youk (.176/.263/.265 since returning from DL) have shown that you're not guaranteed to get much production from them either.

[BSN07]

I predicted they be a playoff team and still think they will be. When they are playing good they are one of the better teams in the Majors. When they are off it's kind of ugly. But they seem to be on more then off and have racked up a good amount of series wins thus far. Whether they take the division or not, it's still to far out to say. We have seen major collapses and epic comebacks in September across the Majors recently. All we can hope for is that the division is within reach come September and go from there.

[a700hitter]

At the beginning of the season, I just wanted them to be competitve. I was hopeful that if things broke righrt for us that we could compete for a wild card. I did not think think there was a chance to win the division. I know expect them to be right in the hunt for the wild card spots right until the end and I am hopeful for a division title, but I will not suck myself into expecting that. If the starters remain healthy throughout the season making 30+ starts each, we have a great chance. I do not expect this, because it hasn't happened since 2004. My biggest fear is if we lose a pitcher or 2 for a prolonged period. I have some confidence that Aceves could be ML average as a starter, but I don't see any reliable depth after him.

 

The other teams (Yanks, O's and Tampa) have had a bumpy ride thus far. The Rays scare me if they can get the back end of the rotation in order.

 

Yes, my expectations are up. Baseball is fun again.

[a700hitter]

At the beginning of the season, I just wanted them to be competitve. I was hopeful that if things broke righrt for us that we could compete for a wild card. I did not think think there was a chance to win the division. I know expect them to be right in the hunt for the wild card spots right until the end and I am hopeful for a division title, but I will not suck myself into expecting that. If the starters remain healthy throughout the season making 30+ starts each, we have a great chance. I do not expect this, because it hasn't happened since 2004. My biggest fear is if we lose a pitcher or 2 for a prolonged period. I have some confidence that Aceves could be ML average as a starter, but I don't see any reliable depth after him.

 

The other teams (Yanks, O's and Tampa) have had a bumpy ride thus far. The Rays scare me if they can get the back end of the rotation in order.

 

Yes, my expectations are up. Baseball is fun again.

[mvp 78]

I still expect about 87 wins and to compete, but miss, the final WC spot. I'm expecting one or two significant injuries, Nava to come back to earth, Iggy to stop hitting, and for the pitch to slide a bit.

 

^polyanna

[a700hitter]

There have been so many unexpected things this season. Nava's great performance heads the list. Who could have expected 2 1/2 months like this. Iglesias hitting. He has not had a ton of playing time, but his numbers a way beyond expectations. Carp has been tearing the cover off the ball in limited playing time. Salty has been extremely adequate maybe even good on both sides of the ball. On the disappointing side, I thought that Middlebrooks was a budding star who would have a monster year, especially after the 3 HR game. He is hitting under .200. Gomes has exceeded my expectations as a fielder, but he has been a non factor offensively.

[Standing Room]

It's still really early, but I would be disappointed if the Red Sox did not at least get a wild card spot. Not only have we been really good this year, but we have tons of depth. Iglesias, Carp, Gomes and Ross make up one of the best benches in baseball. Bradley, Webster, De La Rosa, Ranaudo, Britton, Wilson, Vazquez and possibly even Bogaerts are performing at a level in the upper minors that suggests they could be helpful to the team at some point this year. For every guy like Lester, who is struggling, there's a guy like Doubront who has pitched four quality starts in a row with an ERA of 3. Or a guy like Dempster, who's pitched three quality starts in a row since dealing with a groin injury.

[Standing Room]

There have been so many unexpected things this season. Nava's great performance heads the list. Who could have expected 2 1/2 months like this. Iglesias hitting. He has not had a ton of playing time, but his numbers a way beyond expectations. Carp has been tearing the cover off the ball in limited playing time. Salty has been extremely adequate maybe even good on both sides of the ball. On the disappointing side, I thought that Middlebrooks was a budding star who would have a monster year, especially after the 3 HR game. He is hitting under .200. Gomes has exceeded my expectations as a fielder, but he has been a non factor offensively.

 

Personally, I would say Lackey's been the biggest surprise. I didn't expect anything from him this year.

[Dojji]

I agree. Nava's emergence was at least not completely unprecedented, since he'd shown good plate discipline at the big league level last year. lackey's return to his old form after several years of injury and suckage came right out of nowhere and I'm absolutely delighted that it did.

[Standing Room]

I think we're legitimately the best offensive team in baseball. We lead the majors in runs scored, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, position player WAR, etc. And while we've gotten above average production from our bench players, we've also gotten virtually no production from Middlebrooks and Gomes, who were expected to be two of our starting position players.

[Dojji]

I'll be honest. I never expected Gomes to be one of our starting position players. I wasn't sure if it would be Nava or Bradley or someone else, but the kind of guy Gomes is never seems to play up to their ability at Fenway. Cody Ross was the exception by a lot.

 

Middlebrooks on the other hand, I have no idea what's going on there. Thank God for Iglesias.

[SoxFanForsyth]

One weakness this team has, that I've seen so far, is that we just need 1 more power arm in the bullpen. We have Taz, Uehara, Breslow, Miller, and Bailey. But the 7-8-9 combo can't go everyday, though Breslow has been able to slot in and be effective against RHP and LHP.

 

I really think that right around the trade deadline, the Sox are going to give De La Rosa a call and put him in the bullpen. That will really, really bolster the pen and it keeps his innings down for the 2nd half of the season. His FB will be in the triple digits out of the pen, too.

 

I disagree with a700 on the SP depth. I love our SP depth right now. With Aceves, Morales, Webster, Workman, and Hernandez, the Sox have the ability to take some bumps in the road to the SP staff. And with the offense we have, we can outscore a lot of teams.

[Dojji]

I think that putting de la Rosa in the bullpen during a season where they're trying to stretch him out after some health-related downtime is a spectacularly bad idea.

 

I would have no problem with calling up Webster for that kind of duty though.

[a700hitter]

I disagree with a700 on the SP depth. I love our SP depth right now. With Aceves, Morales, Webster, Workman, and Hernandez, the Sox have the ability to take some bumps in the road to the SP staff. And with the offense we have, we can outscore a lot of teams.

You lose me here. If we have to go down the stretch or any prolonged period of starts with someone other than Aceves regularly taking the ball, we will be in trouble and the bullpen will get more overworked and exposed.

[Dojji]

I disagree: Alan Webster is an excellent young SP prospect who's pitched well in a cameo here already, de la Rosa has some serious talent, and that's before we even dip into the actual replacements.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think that putting de la Rosa in the bullpen during a season where they're trying to stretch him out after some health-related downtime is a spectacularly bad idea.

 

I would have no problem with calling up Webster for that kind of duty though.

 

If he's at 60 IP by July 31 and his limit is 80 IP this year, I don't see why it's a bad idea?

 

EDIT: Nevermind - I thought he was sitting on a much lower innings limit than is actually the case.

 

Speier is saying (in an old article from this past February) that RDLR is aiming toward ~130 IP. If that's the case, he should be able to be a spot starter, not a BP guy.

 

I'd be fine putting him in the bullpen in September, though.

[rjortiz]

We may have the depth, but I don't think we have the front of the line starters to match up with Detroit.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We may have the depth, but I don't think we have the front of the line starters to match up with Detroit.

 

Yeah the Tigers would be a really tough team to beat in any series.

 

If the Sox can go out and trade for Cliff Lee, I think the Sox would have the edge. Buchholz is throwing as well as Verlander this year. Lee could match up well with Sanchez. And Lester could match up with Scherzer. Lackey could probably go toe to toe with Porcello/Fister.

 

But if they don't have that extra top of the rotation guy, I don't like Lester vs Sanchez or Lackey vs Scherzer.

[Dewey Evans]

At seasons start i picked them for 83 wins .Just having Farrell replace BV one of the worst mgrs the game has seen was good for 14 wins.But after seeing how this bunch has played for each other i will say they should get into the 90s.

[MANNYHOF24]

This team is far more talented then anyone wanted to give them credit for to start the season.

[MANNYHOF24]

Yeah the Tigers would be a really tough team to beat in any series.

 

If the Sox can go out and trade for Cliff Lee, I think the Sox would have the edge. Buchholz is better than Verlander this year or at any point of Verlander's career. Lee could match up well with Sanchez. And Lester could match up with Scherzer. Lackey could probably go toe to toe with Porcello/Fister.

 

But if they don't have that extra top of the rotation guy, I don't like Lester vs Sanchez or Lackey vs Scherzer.

 

Fixed!

 

 

Also, if Lester can get his mechanics back he is better than Sanchez, Scherzer is having a great season, he might be a mismatch but I want to see how Lackey pitches the rest of the season, because he has been pretty awesome so far this year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They're 15 games over .500 through 67 right now.

 

If they go 50-45 over the rest of the season (.526 ball, 85 win pace), that puts them at 91 wins. That's certainly a WC position, and could well win the division.

 

My guess is that they end up between 94-96 wins. Probably go 53-42 or 54-41.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fixed!

 

 

Also, if Lester can get his mechanics back he is better than Sanchez, Scherzer is having a great season, he might be a mismatch but I want to see how Lackey pitches the rest of the season, because he has been pretty awesome so far this year.

 

That's true. If you go by ERA, the Sox have the better top 2 (Lackey and Buchholz).

[Bellhorn04]

Before the season I said 84 wins on paper, 90 wins if we're really fortunate, 78 wins if we're really unfortunate.

 

Now of course I'm hoping for at least 90 wins and the division. But it's a long long season.

 

What I'm really happy about is that this team seems to have great intangibles. It seems to be a team that shows up to play every game and bounces back from adversity.

[User Name]

Yeah the Tigers would be a really tough team to beat in any series.

 

If the Sox can go out and trade for Cliff Lee, I think the Sox would have the edge. Buchholz is throwing as well as Verlander this year. Lee could match up well with Sanchez. And Lester could match up with Scherzer. Lackey could probably go toe to toe with Porcello/Fister.

 

But if they don't have that extra top of the rotation guy, I don't like Lester vs Sanchez or Lackey vs Scherzer.

 

Seriously underestimating Scherzer. He has been their best starter this year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Seriously underestimating Scherzer. He has been their best starter this year.

 

Scherzer has not been better than Sanchez by any measure. Sanchez has a better K/9, WAR, FIP, xFIP, the same BB/9, and Sanchez has been doing all of this with a .325 BABIP while Scherzer has a .243 BABIP.

[User Name]

Scherzer has not been better than Sanchez by any measure. Sanchez has a better K/9, WAR, FIP, xFIP, the same BB/9, and Sanchez has been doing all of this with a .325 BABIP while Scherzer has a .243 BABIP.

 

Fair enough. Better than Verlander then.