Trades before the deadline?

[User Name]

I would say that Workman's performance this year has changed his projection and value. I've always thought of him as a fringe back end of the rotation/relief pitcher until this year.

 

That's pretty much still what he projects to be. His ceiling, per talent evaluators, has always been "mid-rotation starter". Realizing that potential just means he reached his ceiling. That would be pretty good though, since most prospects never fulfill their ceiling.

[Standing Room]

That's pretty much still what he projects to be. His ceiling, per talent evaluators, has always been "mid-rotation starter". Realizing that potential just means he reached his ceiling. That would be pretty good though, since most prospects never fulfill their ceiling.

 

I always thought of him as a 6th starter, long man. Being a potential mid-rotation starter is significant improvement from that. And look at the cost of a mid-rotation starter these days, Dempster is making $13 million per year.

[a700hitter]

Gallardo didn't do anything today to add to his market value.

[italstallianion]

I don't think Peavy did much either.

[Orange Juiced]

But i never implied he couldn't be, which is why i said what i said. Whether or not he's improving in the minors does not change his ceiling (mid rotation starter) or his value to other teams (possible mid rotation starter). It really is what it is.

 

I don't understand this line of thinking. Some pitchers aren't rated highly because they have average velocity or only one plus pitch. Yet as they get older and move through the system, their velocity increases or they add a plus pitch or they finally "get it" and develop pinpoint control, or whatever.

 

I don't care what his projections are. The statement that he is what he is implies that he can't be a good major league pitcher because scouts didn't project him that high. I just don't get that.

[User Name]

I don't understand this line of thinking. Some pitchers aren't rated highly because they have average velocity or only one plus pitch. Yet as they get older and move through the system, their velocity increases or they add a plus pitch or they finally "get it" and develop pinpoint control, or whatever.

 

I don't care what his projections are. The statement that he is what he is implies that he can't be a good major league pitcher because scouts didn't project him that high. I just don't get that.

 

Projections change on a year-to-year basis. His has remained steady. It's true that some players "figure it out" and outplay their projections, but how often does that really happen? And if you were another team looking at Workman as part of a package for one of your players, would you value him based on the possibility of a breakthrough, or based on evaluation and projections? That's why "it is what it is".

[Orange Juiced]

Projections change on a year-to-year basis. His has remained steady. It's true that some players "figure it out" and outplay their projections, but how often does that really happen? And if you were another team looking at Workman as part of a package for one of your players, would you value him based on the possibility of a breakthrough, or based on evaluation and projections? That's why "it is what it is".

 

I would look at what the scouts tell me, but I'd also look at his actual production throughout his career, and I would certainly take notice of a guy that has improved significantly as he has moved up the system.

[User Name]

I would look at what the scouts tell me, but I'd also look at his actual production throughout his career, and I would certainly take notice of a guy that has improved significantly as he has moved up the system.

 

Yeah, but significant improvement in production or significant improvement in tools and performance? It's really not that simple. The amount of factors involved in prospect evaluation are many, and not all of them hinge on the player's production. Numbers can be influenced by luck/league strength/stadium etc. but tools are tools.

[Orange Juiced]

Yeah, but significant improvement in production or significant improvement in tools and performance? It's really not that simple. The amount of factors involved in prospect evaluation are many, and not all of them hinge on the player's production. Numbers can be influenced by luck/league strength/stadium etc. but tools are tools.

 

Sure, I agree with that totally. There are many factors to consider. But just as some players have great tools but just don't end up being very good real-life players, other guys have decent tools but just turn out to be really good real-life players. That's why you have to look at everything.

 

As Brad Pitt playing Billy Beane said to his team of scouts in Moneyball, if he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?

[User Name]

Sure, I agree with that totally. There are many factors to consider. But just as some players have great tools but just don't end up being very good real-life players, other guys have decent tools but just turn out to be really good real-life players. That's why you have to look at everything.

 

As Brad Pitt playing Billy Beane said to his team of scouts in Moneyball, if he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?

 

I agree with it as well, but physical tools have a lot of value for a reason. There's also the fact that scouts are pretty good at spotting guys who have the ability to "outperform" their tools because of their approach to the game, poise (which is actually a tool scouts rate for pitchers), concentration etc.

 

The best example of this is Pedroia, who didn't have much in the way of "physical tools" but most scouts projected to be an above-average hitter because of his approach.

[Orange Juiced]

I agree with it as well, but physical tools have a lot of value for a reason. There's also the fact that scouts are pretty good at spotting guys who have the ability to "outperform" their tools because of their approach to the game, poise (which is actually a tool scouts rate for pitchers), concentration etc.

 

The best example of this is Pedroia, who didn't have much in the way of "physical tools" but most scouts projected to be an above-average hitter because of his approach.

 

Of course. So I entered this conversation wondering what you meant when you said, he is what he is. Bottom line: you think what we see is what we get...a decent pitcher with a mediocre ceiling, and there's no reason you see for that evaluation to change.

[User Name]

Of course. So I entered this conversation wondering what you meant when you said, he is what he is. Bottom line: you think what we see is what we get...a decent pitcher with a mediocre ceiling, and there's no reason you see for that evaluation to change.

 

Not quickly enough to change his value as it pertains to the current trade deadline. I made the initial comments refuting Palodios' notion that the couple decent starts he's made at the ML level have enhanced his value.

[SoxSport]

Interesting comments from Lucchino. By that same logic, I imagine we'd be interested in Brian Wilson.

 

I wouldn't expect them to show their cards in this press conference--not a week before the trade deadline. We'll see what they do in the next few days.

[Orange Juiced]

Not quickly enough to change his value as it pertains to the current trade deadline. I made the initial comments refuting Palodios' notion that the couple decent starts he's made at the ML level have enhanced his value.

 

Ok...gotcha. Thanks for that clarification. It's why I asked the question in the first place.

 

And here you thought I was just arguing for the sake of arguing!

[Standing Room]

Ok...gotcha. Thanks for that clarification. It's why I asked the question in the first place.

 

And here you thought I was just arguing for the sake of arguing!

 

You feelin lucky... punk?

[a700hitter]

Last night's injury to Tim Hudson created another buyer and competition for Norris and Peavy.

 

Braves Seek Rotation Upgrades; Pursuing Bud Norris

By Steve Adams [July 25 at 10:00pm CST]

 

10:00pm: The Braves are among the teams that are actively pursuing Astros right-hander Bud Norris, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).

 

Norris, 28, has a 3.93 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 126 1/3 innings for the Astros this season. He carries a significant platoon split, as lefties have rocked him at a .306/.365/.494 clip. Despite his struggles against lefties, Norris has drawn interest from multiple teams, including the Red Sox, Pirates, Phillies, Rangers, Giants and Dodgers throughout the summer.

 

2:37pm: In the wake of Tim Hudson's season-ending ankle injury last night, the Braves will consider making a trade to upgrade their rotation, writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journa-Constitution. O'Brien was among the reporters who spoke with general manager Frank Wren today, who told the media:

 

“A lot of thoughts have gone through my mind since last night. It’s created a lot more (trade) discussions, there’s no question.”

 

It wasn't long ago that the Braves looked to have an enviable surplus of starting pitching with Hudson, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Paul Maholm and Kris Medlen in the rotation and a returning Brandon Beachy on the horizon. However, the team has seen Maholm and Medlen struggle tremendously lately, and Maholm is slated to miss his next three starts with a sprained left wrist. The Braves feel that Beachy is ready to return, and rookie Alex Wood presents another option, but he didn't escape the fifth inning today. Wood lasted just three frames in his only other start for the Braves this season.

 

Wren and his top assistants will convene over the weekend to discuss their options, O'Brien writes. That group will try to determine if there's a starting option on the market who can improve the team significantly without costing too much in terms of young talent. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that Wren, like most general managers, is waiting to see if the asking prices on available starters drops as the deadline nears. O'Brien adds that the Braves are not in the mix for Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez.

 

Earlier today it was reported that the Braves will be one of the many teams scouting Jake Peavy's start against the Tigers in Chicago. The team also remains in the market for a left-handed reliever to fortify its bullpen after losing Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty to Tommy John surgery.

[Orange Juiced]

Peavy is, IMO, better than Norris (obviously his career track record is much, much better, but I'm talking about the two of them *right now*). But Norris, though I'm not super-high on him, intrigues me more. A few reasons:

 

(1) Age. He's several years younger.

(2) Health. Norris doesn't have Peavy's injury history.

(3) Upside. I think Peavy has already reached his peak and is on the way down. Norris is still trending up.

(4) Cost. Norris' contract is WAY cheaper than Peavy's.

 

And yet, because Norris is more of an unknown, and Peavy is more of a big-time name, the asking price for Peavy may still be higher. Obviously I don't know this for sure, but often times people go after big names because of the comfort level and familiarity they have with that bigger name player. So the more suitors, the more demand, and the price goes up.

 

Norris the last 3 seasons:

 

2011: 3.77 era, 100 era+, 1.33 whip, 8.5 k/9

2012: 4.65 era, 87 era+, 1.37 whip, 8.8 k/9

2013: 3.93 era, 105 era+, 1.41 whip, 6.4 k/9

 

So the k/9 and whip numbers aren't encouraging, but the era and era+ numbers are. Especially given that he's moved to the American League. For anyone interested, here's a pretty cool scouting report on Norris from a couple of years ago, tracking him as he moved through the Astros system.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/2/2/1289269/not-a-rookie-bud-norris

[mvp 78]

Norris seems like a #4 to me. The Sox need someone with the potential to be a 1 or 2. Peavy has been dominant in the past and could maybe give you lightning in a bottle. Not sure Norris could. Edited July 26, 2013 by mvp 78

[Palodios]

The Red Sox have scouts watching Norris, but I don't think he's a realistic option for them. Whoever gets Norris will need to overpay him in talent because his contract is so palatable. Peavy's contract prices him out for a good number of teams. At the end of the day, would you rather give a guy like Middlebrooks for a consistent #5 starter, or an inconsistent #2 ?

[User Name]

How about neither?

[mvp 78]

How about neither?

 

I'd bring in Peavy, but probably not for WMB.

[Orange Juiced]

How about neither?

 

Yeah, honestly, I'm with you here. I think they roll with what they have in terms of starting pitching, use some of their own guys to plug gaps, and hope that Buchholz is ready for the September stretch run. And then you take your chances with a rotation of Buchholz-Lester-Lackey-Doubront-Dempster.

 

And fill in the bullpen with some live arms from the minors - maybe you make a couple of minor deals or see if Contreras and/or Lyon can contribute.

 

I think largely staying put is probably a more realistic direction for the Sox right now.

[Standing Room]

I'd bring in Peavy, but probably not for WMB.

 

If we could use Middlebrooks as the centerpiece in a Peavy deal, I would do that deal in a heartbeat and I'm not even a fan of Peavy. I think we need to consider that Middlebrooks will never again regain the form he had last year and the longer we wait, the less value he'll have in a trade.

[mvp 78]

If we could use Middlebrooks as the centerpiece in a Peavy deal, I would do that deal in a heartbeat and I'm not even a fan of Peavy. I think we need to consider that Middlebrooks will never again regain the form he had last year and the longer we wait, the less value he'll have in a trade.

 

I understand, I just think there's a good chance we'd be trading a starting 3b for a guy who doesn't even pitch 20 games for Boston. Yeah, they'd get draft pick compensation 2 years from now, but I'm not entirely sold that Peavy would be enough of an upgrade to lose a decent prospect for. WMB is still only 24.

[Standing Room]

I understand, I just think there's a good chance we'd be trading a starting 3b for a guy who doesn't even pitch 20 games for Boston. Yeah, they'd get draft pick compensation 2 years from now, but I'm not entirely sold that Peavy would be enough of an upgrade to lose a decent prospect for. WMB is still only 24.

 

Yeah, I understand where you're coming from. I just find it exceedingly unlikely that Middlebrooks becomes a solid starting third basemen for a contending team. I pointed out months ago how similar his minor league and rookie year numbers are to Jeff Francour.

 

I'm still hoping he gets hot and helps us down the stretch, but I'm not counting on it. I feel better about the chances of Peavy being able to provide some rotation depth and allow us to move someone to the bullpen.

[italstallianion]

I'm all for trading Middlebrooks I'm just not particularly a fan of dealing for Peavy. At this point I'd trade him to the White Sox for Crain (and who knows, maybe an international draft slot) if I believed Crain was healthy enough.

[BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life]

What about WMB + A bottle line prospect(Henry owens) for Crain and Peavy?

 

Would that work?

 

Or is that still "selling the farm"

[italstallianion]

I wouldn't do that deal, but again I don't see Peavy as a valuable upgrade, and I like Owens.

 

The most I feel I'd be willing to give up for someone other than Cliff Lee (based on who is available) is Middlebrooks + Workman + Brentz (and to be honest a bunch of the starters out there might not even be worth that)

[mvp 78]

What about WMB + A bottle line prospect(Henry owens) for Crain and Peavy?

 

Would that work?

 

Or is that still "selling the farm"

 

Wow. No way would I do that deal.

[Bellhorn04]

What about WMB + A bottle line prospect(Henry owens) for Crain and Peavy?

 

Would that work?

 

Or is that still "selling the farm"

 

I suspect that's the trade they're working on. But not Owens - he might be the real deal.