Trades before the deadline?

[rjortiz]

Three years isn't a major commitment to a player, so I'm not too concerned about the length of the contract. In 2014, they have $87 million on the books, so even with the addition of Lee they'd be comfortably under the cap. In 2015, that number goes down to $29 million.

 

I think they have the financial flexibility, and the surplus of prospects to make a deal if they want to. Maybe you guys would prefer Chris Sale?

[jung]

I think the Sox know they need some way to shore up the pen and you could knock me over with a feather if they do not come up with an arm or two there. As we have often suggested here, filling pen spots other than closer ain't exactly rocket science. Even closer at least to me is a matter of not overpaying for one assuming there is somebody available.

 

I actually think when the jury is in, we will find that Bailey is all done or headed for surgery or some damn thing like that. Ueh does not really impress me in the closer role and I will likely be less impressed if he has post season pressure on him.

 

As for starters, while we could have an injury elsewhere, the most concerning is Buch by far. Unfortunately though, a big name experienced front line starter will automatically be an older guy and he could fall apart as easily as anybody already in the rotation.

 

As for what is there now:

I actually think there is good reason to believe Lackey will be solid from here on in. His pitch sequences are very strong and I do not think that is going to change over the course of what remains of 2013. I always assume a bad game here or there. Verlander has a bad game here or there.

I think we have seen the worst of Lester for this year. So IMO, he can only improve from here.

Dempster is what he is. He has not disappointed me cause I did not expect more than we are getting from him. He is a solid rotation guy IMO if a bit overpriced mainly because he is on a short term deal.

Felix won't be an issue in the post season if he remains a 5. If he has to pitch post season, then he might be something to worry about. But nobody has somebody great sitting down there in the 5 hole.

If Buch makes it back and goes down later, that qualifies as stuff happens. What are you gonna' do, pay an arm and a leg for a guy that is just much if not more of an injury risk based on the possibility that Buch comes back and goes down again?

 

If there is one thing we should have learned by now it is that there is no such thing as buying your way into the WS or buying your way to winning a WS. GM's even with money to spend are left taking calculated risks. That is really all they can do IMO. What we forget is that if it were not for the LA Dodgers we would still be totally f***ed based on the buy your way to success formula. There is no one player out there that will escort this Sox team to a WS. There just isn't. There are guys they can spend a fortune on just like they have in the past. I would prefer they avoid that route as that is a slippery slope. I would only go there for a starter if:

a. Buch is still a question mark for returning

b. The Sox really believe they can get by the best the AL has to offer...meaning Detroit, the Rangers and possibly the O's now that they have gotten another good starter.

 

To me, that was a worthwhile move for the O's. But save one more starter, I have thought the O's a more solid and balanced team than the Sox regardless of the current positioning. Notice I did not say stronger, but more solid and balanced.

 

It is a little bit like looking at the dif between Davis and Ortiz. Taking either out of their team's lineups would be telling. But if it were you, would you put your money on Davis or Ortiz for making it through the entire season?

[a700hitter]

Emphasis on "young". I don't want to see promising young kids dealt away for Cliff Lee or what's left of Roy Halladay or whatever.

Our kids other than Xander Bogaerts are just not very good.

[User Name]

I don't mean any offense by this, but i don't quite think you know what you're talking about there a700.

[a700hitter]

I don't mean any offense by this, but i don't quite think you know what you're talking about there a700.

You are free to disagree. BSN had quoted a 2010 post of mine in his sig that said I didn't expect an impact player from our minors prior to 2013. The meaning of "impact" was debated, but read in a full time player or a rotation guy, because that's what I meant. I was convinced that Middlebrooks had proved me wrong last year, but look at him this year. I am still waiting for the fruits of the farm. We traded the only one that would be a fulltime player-- Rizzo. I follow our minorleaguers closer now than before, and I think there are some major leaguers there, but I am not convinced that any of them are ready to play a full time role prior to 2015, except Middlebrooks who no longer has rookie status. Our guys develop slowly, and I am impatient.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You are free to disagree. BSN had quoted a 2010 post of mine in his sig that said I didn't expect an impact player from our minors prior to 2013. The meaning of "impact" was debated, but read in a full time player or a rotation guy, because that's what I meant. I was convinced that Middlebrooks had proved me wrong last year, but look at him this year. I am still waiting for the fruits of the farm. We traded the only one that would be a fulltime player-- Rizzo. I follow our minorleaguers closer now than before, and I think there are some major leaguers there, but I am not convinced that any of them

are ready to play a full time role prior to 2015, except Middlebrooks who no longer has rookie status. Our guys develop slowly, and I am impatient.

 

The Sox system is the strongest it's been in years.

 

You don't think Webster, RDLR, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, or Ranaudo will be able to play a full time role next season??

 

I would be willing to bet that Bradley, RDLR, Bogaerts, and potentially Webster all start next season with Boston, with the rest of them coming up throughout the year.

[User Name]

Well besides XB, you can pretty much pencil in JBJ, Webster and RDLR as impact player for next season's team. They also have Ranaudo, Cecchini and Brentz close behind in the depth chart. The problem with the post above is that you characterized the rest of the system as "not very good", and that's just plain wrong. "Not close" is not the same as "not very good".

[a700hitter]

Well besides XB, you can pretty much pencil in JBJ, Webster and RDLR as impact player for next season's team. They also have Ranaudo, Cecchini and Brentz close behind in the depth chart. The problem with the post above is that you characterized the rest of the system as "not very good", and that's just plain wrong. "Not close" is not the same as "not very good".

I went blank on Bradley. Of the group, yes I think he will be playing full time next season. Ellsbury will be gone, and Bradley will get the job, but I do not see any one of our pitchers making 20-30 starts for us in 2014. I think Boegy will start next season in AAA, but I expect him to get the call if Middlebrooks falters. But that is it. The rest will not have any role other than a cup of coffee.

[User Name]

I find it very unlikely that one of Webster/RDLR doesn't make twenty starts next season.

[a700hitter]

I find it very unlikely that one of Webster/RDLR doesn't make twenty starts next season.

If we have Lester, Buch, Dempster, Doubs, and Lackey next season, I don't see that either one gets the job unless they absolutely light up AAA this year and ST next year.

[User Name]

Yeah but i'm not counting on Doubront holding his spot. I wish i'm proved wrong on this and he can start eating innings, but he's just not efficient with his pitch count.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I went blank on Bradley. Of the group, yes I think he will be playing full time next season. Ellsbury will be gone, and Bradley will get the job, but I do not see any one of our pitchers making 20-30 starts for us in 2014. I think Boegy will start next season in AAA, but I expect him to get the call if Middlebrooks falters. But that is it. The rest will not have any role other than a cup of coffee.

 

So, who do you have playing SS? Nap is a FA, so need a 1B too.

And Salty is a FA after this year, who do you have catching? What about LF?

 

There is a very good chance that the Sox can have Lavarnway catching, WMB at 1B, Bogaerts at 3B, Iglesias at SS, Nava in LF, Bradley in CF, Webster, Doubront, Tazawa, Wilson, and RDLR all in the rotation or bullpen.

 

That's a huge amount of the team made up of home grown talent, most of them recently home grown.

[a700hitter]

So, who do you have playing SS? Nap is a FA, so need a 1B too.

And Salty is a FA after this year, who do you have catching? What about LF?

 

There is a very good chance that the Sox can have Lavarnway catching, WMB at 1B, Bogaerts at 3B, Iglesias at SS, Nava in LF, Bradley in CF, Webster, Doubront, Tazawa, Wilson, and RDLR all in the rotation or bullpen.

 

That's a huge amount of the team made up of home grown talent, most of them recently home grown.

Middlebrooks and Iglesias are no longer prospects. Their rookie status is gone. Other than Bradley, I don't see that any current farm hand will be a starter next season.

[mvp 78]

If we have Lester, Buch, Dempster, Doubs, and Lackey next season, I don't see that either one gets the job unless they absolutely light up AAA this year and ST next year.

 

Doubs won't be back.

[a700hitter]

Doubs won't be back.

I think that it is more likely that Dempster gets traded.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think that it is more likely that Dempster gets traded.

 

I'm not sure the Red Sox don't exercise Lesters club option and then trade him, particularly if they can get Lee at the deadline.

[User Name]

Which they most likely won't, but you can dream.

[seabeachfred]

This all sounds nice, it really does, but will someone zero in on this year? Are we going to upgrade our bullpen, our starting rotation? Are we planning on trading young prospects for a ace like Lee, or do we go after the guy I want---Garza? He will cost us a helluva lot less, and here's one for you. The Dodgers just put Matt Gurrier (sic) on waivers. Two years ago he was considered a standout reliever. I wonder if we might trade for him, send him to Pawtucket and see if he cold be useful for us out of the bullpen. Someone either here or on Sawxheads or DirtDogs made the comment that Cherington never believed we would be in this position in what he believed was a bridge year. Well the AL East is wide open, and I think the AL is wide open and someone might be able to sneak in. Odds are against it being us but those odds may become shorter if we can continue to play solid baseball. What then will Cherington do?

[Bellhorn04]

I would expect the Red Sox main target is a late inning reliever. It only makes sense. Cherington thought the back end of the bullpen was an area of need so he added Hanrahan and Uehara. Hanrahan is a goner. Bailey looked like he would pick up for Hanrahan, then he bombed out. Uehara has been excellent but has durability questions. Tazawa has been solid but not quite as good as hoped based on last year. Miller and Breslow have both been solid. But for the stretch run another proven late inning reliever would be a big help.

[a700hitter]

I would expect the Red Sox main target is a late inning reliever. It only makes sense. Cherington thought the back end of the bullpen was an area of need so he added Hanrahan and Uehara. Hanrahan is a goner. Bailey looked like he would pick up for Hanrahan, then he bombed out. Uehara has been excellent but has durability questions. Tazawa has been solid but not quite as good as hoped based on last year. Miller and Breslow have both been solid. But for the stretch run another proven late inning reliever would be a big help.

Do you know if there are any fat old relievers with bad elbows that are available?

[SoxFanForsyth]

This all sounds nice, it really does, but will someone zero in on this year? Are we going to upgrade our bullpen, our starting rotation? Are we planning on trading young prospects for a ace like Lee, or do we go after the guy I want---Garza? He will cost us a helluva lot less, and here's one for you. The Dodgers just put Matt Gurrier (sic) on waivers. Two years ago he was considered a standout reliever. I wonder if we might trade for him, send him to Pawtucket and see if he cold be useful for us out of the bullpen. Someone either here or on Sawxheads or DirtDogs made the comment that Cherington never believed we would be in this position in what he believed was a bridge year. Well the AL East is wide open, and I think the AL is wide open and someone might be able to sneak in. Odds are against it being us but those odds may become shorter if we can continue to play solid baseball. What then will Cherington do?

 

The Sox would be wise to stick RDLR in the bullpen and see what they have with him before the deadline. He's been nothing short of outstanding in AAA and could give the pen a huge boost.

 

Uehara is doing fine closing IMO. He has given up 1 run, which is nothing. I know it blew the save but I still feel very comfortable w him closing.

 

If we can stick Taz, RDLR, Miller, and Breslow behind him, we could be in good shape.

 

I think the Sox can find what they need in terms of the pen internally myself, plus I despise trading for relievers.

[BSN07]

This all sounds nice, it really does, but will someone zero in on this year? Are we going to upgrade our bullpen, our starting rotation? Are we planning on trading young prospects for a ace like Lee, or do we go after the guy I want---Garza? He will cost us a helluva lot less, and here's one for you. The Dodgers just put Matt Gurrier (sic) on waivers. Two years ago he was considered a standout reliever. I wonder if we might trade for him, send him to Pawtucket and see if he cold be useful for us out of the bullpen. Someone either here or on Sawxheads or DirtDogs made the comment that Cherington never believed we would be in this position in what he believed was a bridge year. Well the AL East is wide open, and I think the AL is wide open and someone might be able to sneak in. Odds are against it being us but those odds may become shorter if we can continue to play solid baseball. What then will Cherington do?

 

No fred, it's not all about this season. You have to take the future into consideration. That's how you sustain prolonged winning. When you blow your load and dump everything and one shot and it doesn't work out, you get 2012. I understand your concern for what they are going to do to help "this year" as I have some them as well. But when considering the future it's going to have an effect on who they will be in on. Lee is too expensive and Garza most likely too. SP is at a premium this time of year and Garza has managed to pitch decent so Theo is going to as for at least one top 10 prospect(just my guess) and will likely get it as there just isn't many bug name SP available.

 

My guess is to what they do? I have a couple thoughts.

 

1. Trade for a #4 or 5. Some guy to eat innings nothing overly on the excitement meter.

2. Go with a combo of Webster/RDLR/Ranaudo or some other in house prospect option.

3. Trade for RP and/or sign Brian Wilson

4. If they get really creative they could shop Lester(I could see them moving him if they had a replacement, I think they shop him next off season regardless), Drew, and WMB(I'd rather they didn't, but hey this one was supposed to be creative) and see what offers come back.

 

One other concern I have is Lackey. Not in how he's pitching, but how long can he do it? I haven't read anything, but common sense tells me he has to have some kind of innings limit coming off TJS? I mean if it was the last year of his deal then they could say f*** it and run him out there until his arm fell off. Anyone have any info about this topic? ANd I also think Lackey gets shopped after the season. If he continues to pitch like this all season, his value will never be hire.

[Dojji]

Do we have any interest in Ervin Santana? My gut doesn't love the fact that he's thriving in a pitchers' park but my brain says he's always been durable and that we wouldn't necessarily need him to pitch like an ace, just to make all his starts and get through 6+ innings.

 

I think of all the pitchers you know are probably available, Santana looks like he might have the best combination of durability, performance and price.

 

I'd be willing to empty the proverbal shot lockers in a blockbuster if it got Santana and Billy Butler both here, holding back only Bogaerts. My instincts say Butler would take off like a rocket with the Monster to kill balls off, and while he's not anyone's idea of a great defensive 1B, it's a position he can play until the DH spot is clear.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

When you're as old as Methuselah, there is no next season.

[a700hitter]

No fred, it's not all about this season. You have to take the future into consideration. That's how you sustain prolonged winning. When you blow your load and dump everything and one shot and it doesn't work out, you get 2012. I understand your concern for what they are going to do to help "this year" as I have some them as well. But when considering the future it's going to have an effect on who they will be in on. Lee is too expensive and Garza most likely too. SP is at a premium this time of year and Garza has managed to pitch decent so Theo is going to as for at least one top 10 prospect(just my guess) and will likely get it as there just isn't many bug name SP available.

 

My guess is to what they do? I have a couple thoughts.

 

1. Trade for a #4 or 5. Some guy to eat innings nothing overly on the excitement meter.

2. Go with a combo of Webster/RDLR/Ranaudo or some other in house prospect option.

3. Trade for RP and/or sign Brian Wilson

4. If they get really creative they could shop Lester(I could see them moving him if they had a replacement, I think they shop him next off season regardless), Drew, and WMB(I'd rather they didn't, but hey this one was supposed to be creative) and see what offers come back.

 

One other concern I have is Lackey. Not in how he's pitching, but how long can he do it? I haven't read anything, but common sense tells me he has to have some kind of innings limit coming off TJS? I mean if it was the last year of his deal then they could say f*** it and run him out there until his arm fell off. Anyone have any info about this topic? ANd I also think Lackey gets shopped after the season. If he continues to pitch like this all season, his value will never be hire.

With regard to Lackey, I think he is getting stronger. Look at what Wainwright has done after 2 TJ's. I never thought it would happen, but I think Lackey will be a big part of this team's success.

 

This team is not just a surprise with a few good months. They are demonstrating that they a really good team. They need Buch back. That is essential. When you have a team that is a bona fide upper echelon team, I think you need to reinforce it and give them the best shot at going deep in the Post Season. Some prospects should be sacrificed. There aren't that many seasons when we are in this kind of a position. They are on on 98 or 99 win pace. This is not a bridge year. This could be the year. This is when you sacrifice some prospects-- not the top guys for rentals, but decent second tier guys. If Buch comes bach strong, I am not sure that our biggest need is for a pitching stud. Maybe a big bat would be a bigger help in the OF.

[a700hitter]

Do we have any interest in Ervin Santana? My gut doesn't love the fact that he's thriving in a pitchers' park but my brain says he's always been durable and that we wouldn't necessarily need him to pitch like an ace, just to make all his starts and get through 6+ innings.

 

I think of all the pitchers you know are probably available, Santana looks like he might have the best combination of durability, performance and price.

 

I'd be willing to empty the proverbal shot lockers in a blockbuster if it got Santana and Billy Butler both here, holding back only Bogaerts. My instincts say Butler would take off like a rocket with the Monster to kill balls off, and while he's not anyone's idea of a great defensive 1B, it's a position he can play until the DH spot is clear.

I love Butler, but what happens with Napoli?

[Dojji]

The uncertainty around Buch and Lester is what has me thinking about Santana. You can do without top starters if you have a rotation chock full of good-enough starters. I have no compunction about dangling Doubront and a second tier prospect, say Brentz or Almanzar, to bring in one year of Santana. His history suggests he'd be worth the investment.

[Dojji]

I love Butler, but what happens with Napoli?

 

Napoli's only here through the end of the year. I love Napoli, but I love Butler more, so if he was in the deal, for all I care Napoli could go back to the Royals in the deal, or stay and help split 1B defensively. You don't block a deal for a hitter like Butler because you have Mike Napoli. Get him out of that park and give him the Monster to aim his line drives at and I'm convinced his OPS goes up at least 50 points on a year.

[a700hitter]

Napoli's only here through the end of the year. I love Napoli, but I love Butler more, so if he was in the deal, for all I care Napoli could go back to the Royals in the deal, or stay and help split 1B defensively. You don't block a deal for a hitter like Butler because you have Mike Napoli. Get him out of that park and give him the Monster to aim his line drives at and I'm convinced his OPS goes up at least 50 points on a year.

It might be a little disruptive to make the trade mid-season if it lands Napoli on the bench. I would love to see such a trade in the off season.

[BSN07]

The uncertainty around Buch and Lester is what has me thinking about Santana. You can do without top starters if you have a rotation chock full of good-enough starters. I have no compunction about dangling Doubront and a second tier prospect, say Brentz or Almanzar, to bring in one year of Santana. His history suggests he'd be worth the investment.

 

ewww Doubront and Brentz for 2 months of Santana? Pass.