Trades before the deadline?

[iortiz]

C'mon man where's your sense of humor, jeez!

 

And again... Pap won't take this team to that financial corner like it did in 2012, just the opposite; will give us more chances to succeed.

[User Name]

Yeah that's what they said when they signed Crawford. Much like Papelbon is now, he wasn't a fit. Except he wasn't actually declining before he was brought in like Papelbon is now. Something you incredibly refuse to acknowledge regardless of the evidence presented.

[iortiz]

Now you're comparing Crawford's contract with Pap's one?

 

Get out of here.

[italstallianion]

I feel like having Papelbon and his salary (and potential prospect cost) might prevent us from addressing our larger concern, our rotation. Starters generate more wins/losses than relievers. What good is another good bullpen arm if we can't use it because our starters don't give us leads?

 

I understand the point that wins are often more important than value. (In other words I'd rather pay $200 million for 100 wins than $50 million for 50 wins) Even though each win cost more, I don't think I'd watch a 50 win team and be happy that we have "the most value in the league"

 

That said, I don't think adding a closer (when our bullpen has been a strength) is worth the prospect and/or cash, especially when it won't fill our biggest need.

[User Name]

I feel like having Papelbon and his salary (and potential prospect cost) might prevent us from addressing our larger concern, our rotation. Starters generate more wins/losses than relievers. What good is another good bullpen arm if we can't use it because our starters don't give us leads?

 

I understand the point that wins are often more important than value. (In other words I'd rather pay $200 million for 100 wins than $50 million for 50 wins) Even though each win cost more, I don't think I'd watch a 50 win team and be happy that we have "the most value in the league"

 

That said, I don't think adding a closer (when our bullpen has been a strength) is worth the prospect and/or cash, especially when it won't fill our biggest need.

 

Specially when that closer would potentially cost about 80% of what the starter would. And unlike the starter, we have ready in-house options for closer. The Papelbon idea just doesn't make any sense for the Red Sox.

[iortiz]

I feel like having Papelbon and his salary (and potential prospect cost) might prevent us from addressing our larger concern, our rotation. Starters generate more wins/losses than relievers. What good is another good bullpen arm if we can't use it because our starters don't give us leads?

 

I understand the point that wins are often more important than value. (In other words I'd rather pay $200 million for 100 wins than $50 million for 50 wins) Even though each win cost more, I don't think I'd watch a 50 win team and be happy that we have "the most value in the league"

 

That said, I don't think adding a closer (when our bullpen has been a strength) is worth the prospect and/or cash, especially when it won't fill our biggest need.

 

A strength?, compared with what? We are the #23 by ERA and #15 by W-L, plus all the BS. While we have Koji now and is doing a good job, someone has to cover his last role.

 

On the other hand, I would prefer a SP more, as you do (a good one), but If they land Pap, he will round the BP even more. Both moves would be great, but probably would be too much to ask for.

[iortiz]

Specially when that closer would potentially cost about 80% of what the starter would. And unlike the starter, we have ready in-house options for closer. The Papelbon idea just doesn't make any sense for the Red Sox.

 

No sense? Tell that to your boy Ben.

[RedSoxNC84]

I don't really buy into this Papelbon declining theory, but I do agree with ital that trading for him and then having his salary on the team would take away from a much larger concern, being the rotation. Shoring up the bullpen isn't a terrible idea either, but at 15 something million a year, yeah I don't know.

 

Uehara so far has done pretty well in the 9th, I know he's only had a couple outings, but he's looked good. The team still has Tazawa to fall back on as well.. and I'm sure there will be plenty of MUCH cheaper options available at the deadline that could be almost if not AS effective as Papelbon has been or possibly could be.

 

Now if the sox are going to dump a bunch of prospects onto the Phillies, it had better be for Cliff Lee, not Jonathan Papelbon.

[Standing Room]

Papelbon would provide good depth, but I have a feeling there will be an equally good reliever available who would cost less in prospects.

 

Assuming Buchholz is able to pitch in the second half, I'm still not sold on the idea that we need a starter. I can't believe I'm going to say this, but Buchholz and Lackey are about as good a top two starters as you're going to find on any team this year. Lester could be a quality #3 if he fixes his mechanical issues, if not Dempster would make for an average #3. Maybe we get lightning in a bottle with Doubront, De La Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo or some other young pitcher. If not, we should still have the depth to make the playoffs. There aren't going to be many quality starting pitchers available, and those that are available and going to come at a steep price.

[lospunchados]

Papelbon would provide good depth, but I have a feeling there will be an equally good reliever available who would cost less in prospects.

 

Assuming Buchholz is able to pitch in the second half, I'm still not sold on the idea that we need a starter. I can't believe I'm going to say this, but Buchholz and Lackey are about as good a top two starters as you're going to find on any team this year. Lester could be a quality #3 if he fixes his mechanical issues, if not Dempster would make for an average #3. Maybe we get lightning in a bottle with Doubront, De La Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo or some other young pitcher. If not, we should still have the depth to make the playoffs. There aren't going to be many quality starting pitchers available, and those that are available and going to come at a steep price.

 

I agree. With the expected cost of another starter i don't think its worth trading for a starter unless they want virtually no prospects from them. I think the odds are way better getting someone on the team turning it around or Webster,de la Rosa or Ranaudo giving them a boost.

 

I'd much rather give one of those guys a shot then sell the farm for Lee or just rather have them pitch them trade for someone like Bud Norris. If Garza came at a reasonable price ( seems unlikely though) then he'd be someone worth looking at.

[User Name]

I don't really buy into this Papelbon declining theory, but I do agree with ital that trading for him and then having his salary on the team would take away from a much larger concern, being the rotation. Shoring up the bullpen isn't a terrible idea either, but at 15 something million a year, yeah I don't know.

 

Uehara so far has done pretty well in the 9th, I know he's only had a couple outings, but he's looked good. The team still has Tazawa to fall back on as well.. and I'm sure there will be plenty of MUCH cheaper options available at the deadline that could be almost if not AS effective as Papelbon has been or possibly could be.

 

Now if the sox are going to dump a bunch of prospects onto the Phillies, it had better be for Cliff Lee, not Jonathan Papelbon.

 

You don't agree with it why? Numbers don't lie. K-rate has declined, velocity has declined, HR rate is near career high, and his low ERA is fueled by an unsustainably low BABIP. What, is he supposed to get better with his stuff and K rate going down?

[seabeachfred]

I don't really buy into this Papelbon declining theory, but I do agree with ital that trading for him and then having his salary on the team would take away from a much larger concern, being the rotation. Shoring up the bullpen isn't a terrible idea either, but at 15 something million a year, yeah I don't know.

 

Uehara so far has done pretty well in the 9th, I know he's only had a couple outings, but he's looked good. The team still has Tazawa to fall back on as well.. and I'm sure there will be plenty of MUCH cheaper options available at the deadline that could be almost if not AS effective as Papelbon has been or possibly could be.

 

Now if the sox are going to dump a bunch of prospects onto the Phillies, it had better be for Cliff Lee, not Jonathan Papelbon.

 

RSNC84---That idea of dumping a bunch of prospects onto the Phillies for Cliff Lee also gives me the chills. How many prospects would it take, three or four, most likely good ones because their GM, Ruben Amaro Jr. is no fool. Personally I would like to land Matt Garza. He would be much less expensive, maybe one good prospect and a secondary one, and it would still give us enough financial and trading flexibility to add a reliever or two for the stretch drive. I just hope we keep playing well and are in the thick of it come September.

[a700hitter]

RSNC84---That idea of dumping a bunch of prospects onto the Phillies for Cliff Lee also gives me the chills. How many prospects would it take, three or four, most likely good ones because their GM, Ruben Amaro Jr. is no fool. Personally I would like to land Matt Garza. He would be much less expensive, maybe one good prospect and a secondary one, and it would still give us enough financial and trading flexibility to add a reliever or two for the stretch drive. I just hope we keep playing well and are in the thick of it come September.

Garza scares the crap out of me. I think he is a prime TJ candidate.

[SoxFanForsyth]

True Story. Amazin Avenue (a Mets website) had a post talking about the return they could get for Bobby Parnell.

 

They said they could get Bogaerts or JBJ from the Sox.

 

Wut.

[Standing Room]

I saw that. They're idiots, commenters are comparing the situation to when the Mets traded reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey and Blue Jays fans didn't think they'd be giving up D'Arnoud. Yes, because trading a top 3 prospect for an above average reliever is totally similar.

[Behindenemylines]

True Story. Amazin Avenue (a Mets website) had a post talking about the return they could get for Bobby Parnell.

 

They said they could get Bogaerts or JBJ from the Sox.

 

Wut.

 

Then the Mets woke up. This is the first season that Parnell has had pretty good success. Prior to this he has been very inconsistent. Sox should not go near Parnell because he would probably explode under the bright lights of Boston.

[RedSoxNC84]

You don't agree with it why? Numbers don't lie. K-rate has declined, velocity has declined, HR rate is near career high, and his low ERA is fueled by an unsustainably low BABIP. What, is he supposed to get better with his stuff and K rate going down?

 

A gradual decline is understandable.. I realize he is getting older, everyone gets older.. And of course with age, your stuff is just not going to be as good..

 

 

Having said that, I don't think his recent performance suggests a sharp decline, that's really what I meant to say. I think it's just a rough spot.

[RedSoxNC84]

RSNC84---That idea of dumping a bunch of prospects onto the Phillies for Cliff Lee also gives me the chills. How many prospects would it take, three or four, most likely good ones because their GM, Ruben Amaro Jr. is no fool. Personally I would like to land Matt Garza. He would be much less expensive, maybe one good prospect and a secondary one, and it would still give us enough financial and trading flexibility to add a reliever or two for the stretch drive. I just hope we keep playing well and are in the thick of it come September.

 

I meant that more as a "If I had to pick one" scenario

[rjortiz]

Middlebrooks, Webster, and another prospect should be enough to land Cliff Lee. That being said, I highly doubt he's traded.

[jung]

Decline of some sort is almost inevitable. There are a few truly great physical specimens that start out their careers with so much athletic talent that they are able to stave off father time. Fewer and fewer of those are choosing baseball as a sports career though. Roberto Clemente was one. I really struggle to think of another. Pitchers can be different if they can learn to pitch as their ability to throw changes over time. But closers really don't have a lotta' different ways to get guys out. So I think it is as rough for closers to remain competitive over long periods of time as it is for everyday ballplayers.

 

Rivera is different I think because he has that one pitch that you just can't hit but can't lay off of with 2 strikes and has ridden that to a long career closing. I really don't think we will see his equal. I don't believe in the Rivera Highway cause all it would take to hit the exit ramp for some other closer is some sort of major injury or a year or two of decline and that would be that.

 

I have almost got myself convinced that the way salary and performance relative to age are inverted in MLB, it is the name recognition that develops for the player that has as much to do with the salary as anything. If he is a gate draw, he gets paid like one.

[seabeachfred]

Garza scares the crap out of me. I think he is a prime TJ candidate.

 

And some say we never disagree on anything Ted. I like Garza and think he is maybe just what we need. Look at it this way; he right now would only be a rental and would not cost us an arm and a leg, and, consider this....he knows how to pitch in AL East and not afraid to go all out at Fenway Park. I might be wrong but what's not to like?

[rjortiz]

I don't really see a need for Garza. The Red Sox need a clear upgrade in the rotation, and I don't think Garza is one of those. It should be Lee or bust.

 

They should be focusing on adding another high leverage reliever like Jesse Crain. Maybe they go after a 3B, but I think they should be bold and promote Bogaerts to play 3B.

[jung]

To me the problem the Sox have with getting a starter is that somebody really top shelf will be prohibitively costly either just in money or money and prospects if a trade. Yet if the Sox get Buch back and pitching as he has so far this year given the way Lackey is pitching, the Sox really have a good rotation. So if they get Buch back, giving up much for a top shelf pitcher really does not make much sense. So to me that makes the decision point. Can they get Buch back or not?

[rjortiz]

They have a really solid front two of the rotation. I'm just nervous that Lester/Doubront/Dempster would be starting two games in a playoff series.

[seabeachfred]

To me the problem the Sox have with getting a starter is that somebody really top shelf will be prohibitively costly either just in money or money and prospects if a trade. Yet if the Sox get Buch back and pitching as he has so far this year given the way Lackey is pitching, the Sox really have a good rotation. So if they get Buch back, giving up much for a top shelf pitcher really does not make much sense. So to me that makes the decision point. Can they get Buch back or not?

 

The way you paint it, sure, if those things happen we ought to be in decent shape, but what if this thing with Buchholz drags on and on, or we see another physical breakdown with him later in the year? Are we at all certain that Lester will come back, or that Lackey is all the way back? Can we really count on Doubrant to pitch consistently for us from here on in? What if an injury strikes us in the starting rotation? Is DLR ready; is Webster ready? I ask these questions because they are questions I'm sure and others must have thought about. And, this I really think I do know.....we need another reliever or two. I just don't Bailey is cut out to get the job done, and I'm not sure he thinks he can.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They have a really solid front two of the rotation. I'm just nervous that Lester/Doubront/Dempster would be starting two games in a playoff series.

 

The hope is that they can roll with a 3 man rotation through the divisional playoffs.

 

But I absolutely agree. I think they need 1 more guy. Lester just isn't good enough anymore.

 

And to be honest, I don't feel entirely comfortable pinning my 2nd game on a guy fresh off TJS.

 

For what it's worth, I am all for getting Cliff Lee. I think Webster, Cecchini, and Brentz would get it done, and likely taking on a substantial portion of the salary (perhaps getting 8-10mm back over 3 years).

[Youk Of The Nation]

EDIT: Never mind, didn't realize it had already been done.

[rjortiz]

Interesting to see that fangraphs projects the Red Sox to finish with 93 wins without any upgrades. That makes them the best in the AL. A title window is opening up here, and I think we should make a big splash to increase those chances.

[User Name]

The "big splash" mentality is what created 2012. The Sox should not, under any scenario, empty the farm for an upgrade unless it is both an elite and young arm.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Emphasis on "young". I don't want to see promising young kids dealt away for Cliff Lee or what's left of Roy Halladay or whatever.