Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[DocHolliday]

Heyman says Red Sox "unlikely" for Hamilton. But the same Heyman said AdGon wouldn't re-sign with the Sox after they traded for him. So you don't know about Jon, a former Yankee beat writer in NY.

 

The Sox apparently are continuing to talk to Hamilton. Keeping their cards close, waiting to see what Texas does. They aren't as desperate for him as Seattle, and could go either way. I do think Lucchino wants him--to sell tickets. He does remind some people of Ted Williams--that will sell tickets.

 

Not a personal attack on you, but winning is the only thing that will sell tickets in the long run. Whether Lucchino is the main person behind the push for splashy signings or not, we all know how risky that endeavor can be (Drew in 07, Lackey in 10, Crawford in 11). Outside of Manny in 01, I can't recall a splashy signing for a big name free agent that ended up working out for the Red Sox (Manny was also 29 in his first year in Boston- Hamilton will be 32 in May).

 

Until the starting pitching is addressed (either by an outside addition and/or improvements from the current group), Hamilton won't be enough to sell tickets at the pace LL or the ownership group wants. We Sox fans, if I can speak for us as a whole, have seen the splashy moves fail far too often in the recent past to commit more faith as a group in next year's expectations until the real issue is addressed.

 

I think it's doubtful that the Sox would see anything more than a normal spike in ticket sales and ratings after a Hamilton signing until there is sufficient evidence that this team's biggest weakness, the starting rotation, has shown improvement (and I think the FO realizes this too).

[dupree]

The payroll now as it currently is around 120million with arbitration

Last year payroll was at 175 million that being said the sox have 69 million to play with

 

Hamilton at 25 per year is not gonna hurt

Still 44 million to get pitching

the offseason could get interesting

[jung]

Well not to be argumentative I really think that Theos comments while they were roundly criticized as inaccurate by LL spoke to the irrationality of the whole thought process once it gets under your skin. I think what Theo was trying to say is that he knew what he was doing was not right, not grounded in logic but that he got swept up in it.

 

They or at least BC might be better equipped to not get "swept up or swept away" but I would not say anybody was immune especially down there. Then again, it might be hard to imagine BC getting swept up by anything. From what I have seen of him if some folks can be categorized as dry, BC seems downright Death Valleyish.

[BSN07]

Red Sox sign BP arm, CWS looking for RP to replace Brett Myers role.

 

Salty+Aceves for Floyd+ screams match on so many different levels.

 

Grienke needs to hurry up and pick the Rangers(it's honestly a great fit for him) so we can figure out if the Sox are coming in 11th hour style on Hamilton or not.... I can see the Sox giving a 4th year vesting option or may be even a 4th year guaranteed to get it done.

 

In the end whomever signs Hamilton, if it's for only 3-4 years it's a great deal.

[BSN07]

I'm slightly worried Texas is trying to move Young to Philly so they can bring Hamilton back and sign Grienke.

[a700hitter]

Yesterday, I thought the off season work was 70% done, but after sleeping on it, I think. It is only about half done. The lineup needs a big bopper. Right now, the lineup looks like this:

 

Victorino

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

WMB

Napoli

Gomes

Salty/Ross

Iglesias

 

Pedroia is the heart of the team and he makes the offense click when he is hot, but he is not a prototypical #3 hitter, nor is Ellsbury. I think they will push for HAmilton.

 

Pitching is needed. The rotation is thin and not good at all. We still need a first base man too. There is a lot of work to be done.

[BSN07]

Sign Hamilton

Trade Ellsbury ++ for SP(I'm not sure who right now, I made a list yesterday of teams/SP, Maybe Ells to Cincy for Bailey. He put up good numbers in that bandbox)

Trade Salty and Aceves for Floyd+

Sign Brian Wilson

 

But out the egg nog and Captain Morgans, make some ass photo copies and call it an off season

[BSN07]

This is how I personally would set thing up if my before mentioned moves actually happened.

 

vs RHP

CF Victorino

2B Pedey

LF Hamilton

1B Napoli

DH Papi

3B Middlebrooks

C Ross

RF Kalish

SS Iggy

 

vs LHP

RF Victorino

2B Pedey

CF Hamilton

1B Napoli

DH Ortiz

3B Middlebrooks

LF Gomes

C Lavs

SS Iggy

 

Rotation

Lester

Bailey/Garza(Ells trade)

Buccholz

Floyd

Doubront

 

Lackey/Jurrjens type/Morales/De La Rosa

 

BP(some combo of the following)

Bailey

Bard

Wilson(mid season)

Uehara

Miller

Morales

Tazawa

Mortensen

Pimtel

[SoxSport]

Not a personal attack on you, but winning is the only thing that will sell tickets in the long run. Whether Lucchino is the main person behind the push for splashy signings or not, we all know how risky that endeavor can be (Drew in 07, Lackey in 10, Crawford in 11). Outside of Manny in 01, I can't recall a splashy signing for a big name free agent that ended up working out for the Red Sox (Manny was also 29 in his first year in Boston- Hamilton will be 32 in May).

 

Manny was the biggest--and best move. Wonder if they could have won without him.

 

The others were mistakes--in my view--and why Epstein is in Chicago.

 

Hamilton is a Manny-type of impact player--a difference maker. What's missing in their lineup. They know it.

[SoxSport]

The payroll now as it currently is around 120million with arbitration

Last year payroll was at 175 million that being said the sox have 69 million to play with

 

Hamilton at 25 per year is not gonna hurt

Still 44 million to get pitching

the offseason could get interesting

 

Don't count on them to get close to 175. That's what got them in trouble. They had no room to maneuver.

[a700hitter]

Manny was the biggest--and best move. Wonder if they could have won without him.

 

The others were mistakes--in my view--and why Epstein is in Chicago.

 

Hamilton is a Manny-type of impact player--a difference maker. What's missing in their lineup. They know it.

Those teams were built around Manny and Pedro. They were the offensive and pitching centerpieces. Everyone else complemented them. If Hamilton is signed, he will become the centerpiece. It would be nice to have a pitching centerpiece too.

 

Hamilton will not hit 18 HRs like AGon. The boy hits screaming bombs. A friend of mine met Jered Weaver at a Craps table in Vegas about 3-4 years ago. He told my friend that the only hitter he was afraid to pitch to was Hamilton. He is concerned for his safety with that beast 60 feet 6 inches away.

[example1]

Pedroia is the heart of the team and he makes the offense click when he is hot, but he is not a prototypical #3 hitter, nor is Ellsbury. I think they will push for Hamilton.

 

I think the pump is primed for a move like this as well. The interesting thing is that is sounds like Seattle is the leader in the clubhouse at three years and maybe 25m per. If Texas were to sign Greinke (fingers crossed) they would likely be out of the running. The biggest concern for the Sox with Hamilton is the length of contract he's asking for. If the Sox biggest competition for him is already at 3 years then they can jump in with a bigger AAV and make it happen. At 3 years that would be a tolerable acquisition; 4 years, maybe; anything longer, no thanks.

[Bellhorn04]

Hamilton will not hit 18 HRs like AGon. The boy hits screaming bombs. A friend of mine met Jered Weaver at a Craps table in Vegas about 3-4 years ago. He told my friend that the only hitter he was afraid to pitch to was Hamilton. He is concerned for his safety with that beast 60 feet 6 inches away.

 

Hamilton can seriously jerk the baseball, no question. I remember one he hit at Fenway that went deep into the right field seats and it seemed like a relatively easy swing.

[example1]

He is concerned for his safety with that beast 60 feet 6 inches away.

 

That's how ladies feel in my presence. I've heard the whispers.

[a700hitter]

Hamilton can seriously jerk the baseball, no question. I remember one he hit at Fenway that went deep into the right field seats and it seemed like a relatively easy swing.

In his first year with Texas, I was at a game where he absolutely flattened a pitch ti CF. The ball left the park like it was shot out of a canon.

[BSN07]

That's how ladies feel in my presence. I've heard the whispers.

 

nice..

[Spudboy]

How does everyone feel about Hamilton's ability to withstand the rigors of playing in the Boston fishbowl market? Should this be a concern with his history of substance abuse? I'd take a crack at him anyway but I thing that this could be an issue. This is not Arlington, Texas. Bible toters don't seem to fit in here and he has a predilection for checking out with drugs. Just my $.02 worth.

[SoxFanForsyth]

How does everyone feel about Hamilton's ability to withstand the rigors of playing in the Boston fishbowl market? Should this be a concern with his history of substance abuse? I'd take a crack at him anyway but I thing that this could be an issue. This is not Arlington, Texas. Bible toters don't seem to fit in here and he has a predilection for checking out with drugs. Just my $.02 worth.

 

The biggest thing I'm worried about is the media going over the top with him.

 

Meaning - following him after a game to see if he goes to a watering hole or if he goes to a normal restaurant/home. Rather than acting like sports reporters, acting like paparazzi's. I think the Boston media has really overstepped their boundaries in recent years (see: Francona story), and I think they'd take it to another level with him.

 

I would absolutely love for him to come play in Boston, and I really hope he does.

 

But if he was my brother, I would tell him to stay away.

[dupree]

I just read that the Dodgers are considering pulling out on signing Grienke

The Dodgers are believing that they are just being used to drive the price up

I hope like hell the Rangers land him... it will prolly be in the 160million + range

Trade talks with the Dbacks are still going on to aquire Upton as well

 

Texas would be getting better no doubt in their rotation

But I am glad that the Red Sox are not in on Grienke

He is gonna become the highest paid pitcher in history

Im not saying hes not good i just dont think he is worth more than a Verlander, King Felix, or a David Price but Texas thinking he is worth that load of $$$ helps us

 

With the domino of Grienke falling to Texas they are good as well out on Hamilton

So come on down Josh Hamilton the water is fine!!!

[KCBRUIN]

How does everyone feel about Hamilton's ability to withstand the rigors of playing in the Boston fishbowl market? Should this be a concern with his history of substance abuse? I'd take a crack at him anyway but I thing that this could be an issue. This is not Arlington, Texas. Bible toters don't seem to fit in here and he has a predilection for checking out with drugs. Just my $.02 worth.

 

The Sox paid for Dice-K to have a translator follow him all over Boston. Hire a chaperone to follow Hamilton every where he goes, and call him out on suspect activity.

 

I nominate myself for the position.

[iortiz]

The Sox paid for Dice-K to have a translator follow him all over Boston. Hire a chaperone to follow Hamilton every where he goes, and call him out on suspect activity.

 

I nominate myself for the position.

 

[dupree]

Speaking of Dice-K do u think he will sign anywhere?

Ive seen reports that a Japanese team has offered him a ton of money

 

I dont want him back even on a 1 year deal

that ship has sailed

[example1]

The biggest thing I'm worried about is the media going over the top with him.

 

Meaning - following him after a game to see if he goes to a watering hole or if he goes to a normal restaurant/home. Rather than acting like sports reporters, acting like paparazzi's. I think the Boston media has really overstepped their boundaries in recent years (see: Francona story), and I think they'd take it to another level with him.

 

I would absolutely love for him to come play in Boston, and I really hope he does.

 

But if he was my brother, I would tell him to stay away.

 

Yeah, all of your concerns are valid in my opinion. I think ultimately it comes down to how comfortable he is in his sobriety. Anyone who is truly committed to staying sober goes to great lengths to attend groups, have counseling, or do whatever else it is that works for them. If he's committed at that level then he will be fine anywhere. If he's dropped off of that and has become somewhat complacent, then his environment will make a great difference and Boston would not be recommended (vs. say, Seattle or Milwaukee or somewhere less pressure filled/scrutinizing).

[dupree]

Yeah, all of your concerns are valid in my opinion. I think ultimately it comes down to how comfortable he is in his sobriety. Anyone who is truly committed to staying sober goes to great lengths to attend groups, have counseling, or do whatever else it is that works for them. If he's committed at that level then he will be fine anywhere. If he's dropped off of that and has become somewhat complacent, then his environment will make a great difference and Boston would not be recommended (vs. say, Seattle or Milwaukee or somewhere less pressure filled/scrutinizing).

 

I believe the media with factor into his decision making which will be strike against bean town. But i dont think Seattle with all the rain & bad weather would be a good fit for him

 

Milwaukee has stated that they are not in on Hamilton many times... but at 3 years id say a lot more teams are in than they let on

 

Philly is a team that I think is a big player & need an outfielder i wouldnt rule then out until hamilton is signed elsewhere

[Lucienbel]

I just read that the Dodgers are considering pulling out on signing Grienke

The Dodgers are believing that they are just being used to drive the price up

I hope like hell the Rangers land him... it will prolly be in the 160million + range

Trade talks with the Dbacks are still going on to aquire Upton as well

 

Texas would be getting better no doubt in their rotation

But I am glad that the Red Sox are not in on Grienke

He is gonna become the highest paid pitcher in history

Im not saying hes not good i just dont think he is worth more than a Verlander, King Felix, or a David Price but Texas thinking he is worth that load of $$$ helps us

 

With the domino of Grienke falling to Texas they are good as well out on Hamilton

So come on down Josh Hamilton the water is fine!!!

 

I'd have to agree. The more and more I see the amount of money he's going to make the more and more I just want to laugh. As said, he's not a bad pitcher. He's going to get you a lot more wins than losses with a good offense behind him. This is definitely going to end up being a case of him making an outrageous amount of money because he's the best available and nothing more really. Definitely not the worst pitcher in the World, and I can't think of a team that would complain if they had him on their staff. I can think of a ton of teams that should be complaining if he were on their staff for that much money though.

[Laser Show]

Speaking of Dice-K do u think he will sign anywhere?

Ive seen reports that a Japanese team has offered him a ton of money

 

I dont want him back even on a 1 year deal

that ship has sailed

 

Even though I think he'd improve our current roster, I'd pass. Nothing he can do, short of a 6+ WAR season, would get the fans back on his side. One bad start and everyone would be calling for his head

[SoxFanForsyth]

Casey Stern said it best about the Sox offseason.

 

They've got a ton of ornaments, but we're still waiting for the tree.

[DocHolliday]

Manny was the biggest--and best move. Wonder if they could have won without him.

 

The others were mistakes--in my view--and why Epstein is in Chicago.

 

Hamilton is a Manny-type of impact player--a difference maker. What's missing in their lineup. They know it.

 

I respect your opinion re Hamilton and am not necessarily opposed to the Sox signing him. However, I feel there are implications that come with signing Hamilton that must be weighed in the decision, and IMO more heavily than many on this board are giving (which is why I addressed the draft pick and the importance of the Sox draft picks based on their track record of development in another post).

 

In addition, I won't discount anyone else's opinion of any player, free agent or not. But I will say that, having followed Hamilton's track record since he arrived here in Texas, I think it's fair to say that he is viewed differently by baseball fans living here than fans in other parts of the country who don't follow him as closely. IMO, he is certainly a talented player and in the upper echelon of players in the game. But he certainly has flaws- some of which I've addressed in other posts.

 

Since we both agree that Manny was an impact FA signing, I think it's fair to point out that there is a significant contrast between Manny and Hamilton in post season statistics (whether or not performance enchanting drugs played a role in Manny's post season successes).

 

Manny's post season OPS: .937; Hamilton's post season OPS: .720

 

Of course it's fair to point out that these numbers could be considered arbitrary (different PA's, circumstances, etc.), but I consider them telling when you consider the quality of pitching you're facing in the post season and Hamilton's reputation of feasting on mediocre pitching while being below the MLB average against upper tier pitchers.

 

For the right circumstance, I would be on board with the Sox signing Hamilton and would hope for the best with his time here in Boston. But given the other implications and my opinion of him, I'd rather see him sign elsewhere if his price is, say, above 3 years and $65-$70 M (plus a lost draft pick).

[TheBardoftheBullpen51]

Hamilton is way to Injury prone if we went for Hamilton this whole off season would be a dissapointment. Ellsbury for Homer Bailey on a deal would be excellent! LET RYAN KALISH IN THE OUTFIELD NOW! Forget Shane Victorino trade bait, I think so!

[DocHolliday]

The biggest thing I'm worried about is the media going over the top with him.

 

Meaning - following him after a game to see if he goes to a watering hole or if he goes to a normal restaurant/home. Rather than acting like sports reporters, acting like paparazzi's. I think the Boston media has really overstepped their boundaries in recent years (see: Francona story), and I think they'd take it to another level with him.

 

I would absolutely love for him to come play in Boston, and I really hope he does.

 

But if he was my brother, I would tell him to stay away.

 

This, coupled with some of his offensive flaws, which will certainly go noticed in Boston more so than Texas, are the main reasons I'm hesitant of the Sox committing to him.

 

Even in Texas, where the media is much less of a factor, certain occurrences with Hamilton were taken out of context. Not only did it affect Hamilton at times, but the media purging spread to other players on the Rangers (Young, Kinsler, etc.) who, by all accounts, became fed up with the whole situation.

 

We just got out of a situation where, warranted or not, controversy over the off the field actions of a group of pitchers became the front and center daily topic of the entire clubhouse. We all saw where things went from there.

 

Is it worth repeating the risk, so soon after the latest debacle?