Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[DocHolliday]

In general, the offseason should be about finding the best value for the many needs and areas of improvement this team needs. If I had to guess, I think this team will end up using all of the avenues possible to strengthen the team - trades, the free agent market, and their farm system.

 

Much of the talk here over the next 4 - 5 months will be spent trying to decide which of the multiple opportunities along the 3 avenues would produce the most value for both next year and beyond. It is doubtful that each and every personnel decision made this off season will work out. But my hope is that, unlike previous offseasons, the team takes on less short term and more long term commitment than they have in the past. After all, its not clear as to when this team will be able to consistently contend for post season runs again - whether its within 5 years, 3 years, 2 years, or even next season.

 

Hopefully all of the decisions will be made based on what is best for the health of the baseball team first - not to revive interest in the team or "splash" types of moves - whether by trade or the free agent market. Outside of the Yankees, the vast majority of the teams that have been in the playoffs the past several seasons have built their teams without making many of the big "splash" types of moves. Even many of the Yankees "splash" moves were made in 1 offseason and have been supplemented by more under the radar moves that turned out to be smart baseball moves (Kuroda last offseason, Russell Martin two offseasons ago, Granderson three offseasons ago). Both the Angels and Dodgers tried to make the "splash" moves this calendar year through both the FA and trade routes and both are sitting out of October this year with the Red Sox.

 

Maybe things will go well and it will be a short wait, or maybe it will take more time. Even if it takes time to get back into contention, I'm willing to wait it out - even if it means taking a long term approach- and hope the FO feels the same way.

[a700hitter]

Melancon would be a trading chip to get something of value from a small market team. He has a good arm, but doesn't have the head needed to pitch in Boston. Find a chip that you want from a small market team and use him to get it. Haven't seen enough of LeHair to make a call, but have to question if you want a young guy who is already being targeted as a platoon guy. Unless you get him for nothing, I can't see it happening. Like it was mentioned Theo is going to ask for the moon. I already feel violated by what we got in return for letting Theo go to Chicago early.

At this point, you will get next to nothing for Melancon. We'd be better off keeping him in the minors for an emergency situation.

[SoxFanForsyth]

A bit from a Pete Abraham article on September 13th that I'm shocked hasn't been brought up (or maybe I just haven't seen it brought up):

 

Then there's this: Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki would welcome going to a new team, we've been told. The Red Sox will make their splashes in the trade market this winter, not the free agent market.

 

Now, the Rockies have said that they wouldn't want to trade Tulo for SP because SP in Colorado is so volatile. Not sure if they'd change their mind or not. Regardless, that's a deal that the Red Sox have to not only look into, but explore every reasonable avenue to get it done, be it a three-way deal or anything.

 

For Tulo, the only player I would make off-limits is probably Bogaerts.

[wyo-sox]

I could not imagine we have any players that would interest Rockies in parting with Troy. Would love it if we could, but don't see it as possible.

[mvp 78]

Yes, let's trade for another payroll busting long term contract!

[jung]

I actually think it fortunate that the Sox really do not have anything that they should give up that the Rookies would want. Tulo is on maybe one of the last really long contracts I would hope to see in baseball. Stop the madness please.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, let's trade for another payroll busting long term contract!

 

You're raising some interesting questions.

 

It's great that we were able to unload 250 million of contracts. But do any of us really believe we'll be able to rebuild a World Series contender over the next few years without taking on at least one or two new big contracts? Is it possible for a big-market team like the Red Sox to do that? And even if we were able to do it, would the fans be happy? The luxury tax cap goes to 189 million in 2014. Should the Red Sox have the goal of having a payroll that's just under the cap, or should they spend much less than that? If they spend much less than that, where does all that extra money go? Back to the owners? Reduced ticket prices? (LOL)

[a700hitter]

You're raising some interesting questions.

 

It's great that we were able to unload 250 million of contracts. But do any of us really believe we'll be able to rebuild a World Series contender over the next few years without taking on at least one or two new big contracts? Is it possible for a big-market team like the Red Sox to do that? And even if we were able to do it, would the fans be happy? The luxury tax cap goes to 189 million in 2014. Should the Red Sox have the goal of having a payroll that's just under the cap, or should they spend much less than that? If they spend much less than that, where does all that extra money go? Back to the owners? Reduced ticket prices? (LOL)

If they want to continue to charge the highest ticket prices in Baseball, they can't put out a product that looks like the KC Royals.

[mvp 78]

Spending money is fine, but not on ridonkulous contracts like Tulo's...

[SoxFanForsyth]

Spending money is fine, but not on ridonkulous contracts like Tulo's...

 

Do you even know what Tulo's contract is??

 

It's 10/$157mm. It goes through the age of 35. It's not as large as you make it seem. Especially not for a perennial power hitting all star SS who finished in the top 10 in MVP in 3 of the last 4 years and has won GG's in 3 of the last 4 years.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you even know what Tulo's contract is??

 

It's 10/$157mm. It goes through the age of 35. It's not as large as you make it seem. Especially not for a perennial power hitting all star SS who finished in the top 10 in MVP in 3 of the last 4 years and has won GG's in 3 of the last 4 years.

 

Yeah, it's like, if you are going to have a ridiculous contract, Tulowitzki might be one guy who's worth it.

 

Manny's contract was ridiculous, but one of the best investments in the team's history.

[Palodios]

Do you even know what Tulo's contract is??

 

It's 10/$157mm. It goes through the age of 35. It's not as large as you make it seem. Especially not for a perennial power hitting all star SS who finished in the top 10 in MVP in 3 of the last 4 years and has won GG's in 3 of the last 4 years.

 

Tulo is a very good player. One of the best. But when you're talking about selling the farm, paying $160 million dollars, and getting back a player that is incredible injury prone, I'm very concerned.

 

The Red Sox have league average at SS, with a combination of guys who will be average. If they sell the farm, it should be for a first baseman or a starter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yeah, it's like, if you are going to have a ridiculous contract, Tulowitzki might be one guy who's worth it.

 

Manny's contract was ridiculous, but one of the best investments in the team's history.

 

Not to mention it's at an absolute premium position.

 

The average AL Shortstop in 2012 hit .253/.305/.366. That's a .671 OPS.

 

Tulo has a career .868 OPS, and over the past 4 seasons, has posted a .922 OPS.

 

If you're going to spend big money on a player, don't you think a guy who outperforms the average shortstop by almost 300 points in OPS?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Tulo is a very good player. One of the best. But when you're talking about selling the farm, paying $160 million dollars, and getting back a player that is incredible injury prone, I'm very concerned.

 

The Red Sox have league average at SS, with a combination of guys who will be average. If they sell the farm, it should be for a first baseman or a starter.

 

The premium the Sox would get in acquiring Tulo at SS is much greater than they would get in acquiring a 1B. Especially since there are players like Napoli who are available to sign via FA.

 

The SP, we agree on. But don't sell the farm for a 1B. Trade for one via Ells + Cecchini, or the such, fine (for a guy like Trumbo). But not any of the top tier prospects.

[Palodios]

The premium the Sox would get in acquiring Tulo at SS is much greater than they would get in acquiring a 1B. Especially since there are players like Napoli who are available to sign via FA.

 

The SP, we agree on. But don't sell the farm for a 1B. Trade for one via Ells + Cecchini, or the such, fine (for a guy like Trumbo). But not any of the top tier prospects.

 

Well, by sell the farm I meant for an elite-elite talent-- at the same level as Tulo.

That would mean Miguel Cabrera, or Pujols +cash or a player of that caliber.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well, by sell the farm I meant for an elite-elite talent-- at the same level as Tulo.

That would mean Miguel Cabrera, or Pujols +cash or a player of that caliber.

 

Well, I guess with the depth the Red Sox have at SS going forward (Marrero, Bogaerts, Vinicio, Iglesias), it wouldn't be the most productive thing to have a SS locked up for the next 8 years.

 

But at the same time, none of those outside of Bogaerts will even get close to Tulo's caliber, and it makes players like Marrero, etc expendable.

[mvp 78]

His extension was for 7 years at $134M (not the $15M per you're making it out to be). Maybe you didn't really know the contract?

[SoxFanForsyth]

His extension was for 7 years at $134M (not the $15M per you're making it out to be). Maybe you didn't really know the contract?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=125

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/rockies-tulowitzki-nearing-ten-year-extension.html

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_lemire/11/30/tulowitzki.contract/index.html

 

Hm.

 

I'd say it's 10/$157.

 

To be clear, it was 3/$33mm originally, then the extension makes it a 10/154 contract. And for AAV purposes (i.e. luxury tax), it's calculated together.

[jung]

To much injury stuff going on with Tulo for my liking. Missing extended time in 2008, 2010 and 2012. With their pitching as totally screwed up as it is, if the Sox are going to spend that kind of money at this point, spend it on pitching.

 

With any luck at all the benefit to the ARod contract will be seeing a guy being carted up to the batters box in a wheel chair for some ungodly amount of money every year as he and the Yanks are the poster children for these ridiculous long contracts that take players into their mid or even late 30's. I don't see anything in any ballplayer anymore that makes my mouth water signing up to these long, meaning seven year commitments.

[SoxFanForsyth]

To much injury stuff going on with Tulo for my liking. Missing extended time in 2008, 2010 and 2012. With their pitching as totally screwed up as it is, if the Sox are going to spend that kind of money at this point, spend it on pitching.

 

You're getting an elite, elite SS and middle of the order bat for less than $16mm AAV.

 

I don't understand how someone can be against this.

[Station 13]

10 year? holy s*** no way jose (Iglesias!). Too risky for a middle infielder.

[mvp 78]

You're getting an elite, elite SS and middle of the order bat for less than $16mm AAV.

 

I don't understand how someone can be against this.

 

For the Red Sox urposes, it's not $16M per. It's $19.5 from 2014-2020. 2011 and 12 are irrelevant to the Sox and this discussion.

 

It's too much money for a SS when any $ should go towards pitching, but not on 8 year contracts.

[Bellhorn04]

10 year? holy s*** no way jose (Iglesias!). Too risky for a middle infielder.

 

8 years left on the contract.

[mvp 78]

Also, his career OPS is 100+ points lower away from Coors.

 

It'd be dumb to trade the farm, to bring back a contract that runs for 8 more years for a guy who has spent his career in Colorado.

[Station 13]

8 years left on the contract.

 

I wouldn't touch it either.

 

I'd rather see Halimton 4/80M instead.

[jung]

Yea, I did not mention the Colorado connection MVP cause his away numbers are not as totally whacked as some of the Colorado guys have had when coming up in these discussions but that is a concern.

 

At this stage the Sox need to spend money on pitching first and if they are going to spend it on an everyday ballplayer it needs to be a big power hitter guy...the guy AGons was not. As good as Tulo is, that is not Tulo.

 

Sox have a severe power outage to consider that is only going to get worse as Ortiz closes down his career.

 

If you want to look at how important pitching is from a practical perspective you need look no farther than NY. Their offense is two pop guns (Jeter and Itchiro) and a real deal hitter in Cano. In truth, that is it! Beyond those guys you have the utterly laughable Mr. K Granderson, the drama queen, Mr. RISP Swisher, the aging Tex, the geriatric ARoid and a bunch of guys you could copy from just about anywhere. Gardener and Martin are probably the standouts of the rest.

 

For my money I would value financial flexibility over a bunch of prima donna everyday ballplayers.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, his career OPS is 100+ points lower away from Coors.

 

It'd be dumb to trade the farm, to bring back a contract that runs for 8 more years for a guy who has spent his career in Colorado.

 

I think I have to agree.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Another guy I'd like the Sox to check in on is Brandon Belt. I'm not sure the Giants are 100% sold on him.

 

He's another under-the-radar kind of guy who the Sox could target and really could be a monster. He only hit 7 HR this year (9 last year), but he's got a nice oppo field swing that could work well in Boston, depending on the loft he gets.

 

He was the #23 prospect going into 2011 (lost eligibility after that season). He's only 24 this year, and has plenty of time to mature.

 

His numbers in the minors are an astounding .343/.457/.596, but in the bigs a mediocre .259/.344/.418.

 

At least a guy worth checking into.

[mvp 78]

I'm all for guys like Brandon Belt... He's a young guy that fits a need not found in the organization.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Outside the box (bored) thinking. What if the Sox brought Bogaerts up in about June from AA, and also traded for Brandon Belt? I would love an infield of Belt - Pedroia - Bogaerts - Middlebrooks. That's a long term infield right there.

 

The outfield, however, is another situation, but that would certainly be a step in the right direction.