Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

His k's per 9 and other numbers were starting to decline. His command was slipping too. ...And I am talking about the entire season... not just the last month.

 

Stop pulling things out of your ass please.

 

His K/9 saw a small dip from the previous year when he had a season high, but were still around his career averages, even at the end of the year. His walk rate in 2011 was actually lower than his walk rate in 2010.

[a700hitter]

Stop pulling things out of your ass please.

 

His K/9 saw a small dip from the previous year when he had a season high, but were still around his career averages, even at the end of the year. His walk rate in 2011 was actually lower than his walk rate in 2010.

Okay first off stop with the nastiness. If you want to have a discussion fine. If you want to be a dick, f*** off.

[a700hitter]

Lester's k/9 were down 1.2 per per 9 innings in 2011 (8.5) from 2010 (9.7). That's not insignificant. He has followed that up with another decrease of 1 k per 9 innings (7.5). If you think that is insignificant, Pal, fine, but I did not pull something out of my ass. The team's record was 16-15 in his starts in 2011. That was way down from 20-12 in 2010. The 2011 late and close bullpen was top 3 in the league, so it was not a good sign that Lester was not handing more games to the pen with a chance of winning. His BAbip went down slightly from 2010 (.291) to .287 in 2011, yet his ERA went up from 2.71 to 3.47 -- an increase of 3/4 of a run. These numbers have not been pulled from my ass. They are on his stat sheet. His velocity has been ticking down too. He has been declining for 2 years.

[Palodios]

Okay first off stop with the nastiness. If you want to have a discussion fine. If you want to be a dick, f*** off.

 

I want a discussion. What I don't want is someone bashing my favorite players based on stats that are unfounded and/or don't exist. I've learn to coexist with your unfounded opinions of players, but I'm far less tolerant of using unfounded statistics.

 

His BAbip went down slightly from 2010 (.291) to .287 in 2011, yet his ERA went up from 2.71 to 3.47 -- an increase of 3/4 of a run. These numbers have not been pulled from my ass. They are on his stat sheet. His velocity has been ticking down too. He has been declining for 2 years.

 

His ERA in 2010 was 3.25, not 2.71. See my above statement.

[a700hitter]

I want a discussion. What I don't want is someone bashing my favorite players based on stats that are unfounded and/or don't exist. I've learn to coexist with your unfounded opinions of players, but I'm far less tolerant of using unfounded statistics.

 

 

 

His ERA in 2010 was 3.25, not 2.71. See my above statement.

I looked at a split by mistake. His ERA went up by 1/4 of a run and the other stats cited are accurate and not insignificant. My opinions are not unfounded. Stop being a jackass.

[Behindenemylines]

Guys save the hate for the $pankees. I can see this terrible mess of a season is getting to a lot of us. If the Sox are going to right the ship a fixed Lester has to be part of it. Even if he isn't a top of the rotation pitcher any more he still is an effective middle of a rotation guy who can eat innings. He is a home grown lefty that still is young. I can't give up on him, and if you look around at SP that can be had in the off season the pickings are slim.

[a700hitter]

Guys save the hate for the $pankees. I can see this terrible mess of a season is getting to a lot of us. If the Sox are going to right the ship a fixed Lester has to be part of it. Even if he isn't a top of the rotation pitcher any more he still is an effective middle of a rotation guy who can eat innings. He is a home grown lefty that still is young. I can't give up on him, and if you look around at SP that can be had in the off season the pickings are slim.

Yep, I am thinking if he is our #4 it would mean that we picked up a couple of pretty good starters and that would be a very strong rotation. More likely he'll be a #3 and we'll pick up 1 starter.

[Behindenemylines]

I read a couple of articles that have the Rangers looking at Ellsbury as a potential trade target in the off season. The voices in the media are growing saying that there is no way Ellsbury resigns with the Sox. Like I have said many a times, the Sox will place a value on Ells and if he wants more then he becomes a big trading chip.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Can we count on Lester to be our ace? No. But does that mean he's on this perpetual spiral downward? Not at all. His velocity has decreased 0.2 mph this year. That's negligible, so that argument holds no water to me. His K's have certainly dropped, but his BB's have dropped significantly as well. In fact, his K:BB ratio is at 2.49, which is higher than his career average (2.47). He's had only 2 seasons in his career in which his K:BB ratio was higher than it is this year.

 

Look, he's having a terrible year. He's not stranding the runners that get on, but he is walking fewer. His 4 seamer averaged 93.69 last year vs 93.62 this year, so it's not like he's lost arm strength like some would like you to believe.

 

He's not an ace. Certainly not. And Buchholz is a better pitcher than Lester. This team needs two top of the rotation pitchers (like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren, which I'll push until the end of the offseason). But if they only get 1 of those, and Buchholz becomes the #2 and Lester becomes your #3, that would still be a very, very strong top 3, and to be honest, I would put Lester up against any #3 in the AL. The only #3 in the MLB I wouldn't put him up against is on the Phillies.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And for all of those people who didn't want to trade for Lee because they think he's having a down year - He's got a 3.36 ERA right now, both his K/9 and K:BB are very strong (6.57 K:BB is ridiculous), and he's got a 2.26 ERA over his last 9 starts.

 

He is exactly what the Red Sox need in terms of getting their pitching back in order.

[Palodios]

And for all of those people who didn't want to trade for Lee because they think he's having a down year - He's got a 3.36 ERA right now, both his K/9 and K:BB are very strong (6.57 K:BB is ridiculous), and he's got a 2.26 ERA over his last 9 starts.

 

He is exactly what the Red Sox need in terms of getting their pitching back in order.

 

In all fairness, the down year has nothing to do with why I don't want Cliff. Its the 26 million per year:lol:

 

For that kind of serious money, why not save the prospects and go for Greinke? The big Red Sox deal set a precedent that deals for talent require prospects, even if it is a salary drop-- and the Phillies made it clear that they aren't just going to waive Lee.

 

Picking up Cliff Lee would mean paying 4/100 for a Cy Young caliber pitcher at ages 35-38.

Picking up Greinke would mean paying 7/160 for a Cy Young caliber pitcher at ages 30-36.

 

Say what you want about Greinke, he has been very healthy throughout his career, and his worst ERA in the last eight years has been 4.12. If it weren't for the rumored anxiety issues, he would be a thumbs up for any club in the league based on his track record. And yet, Greinke's contract-- much like Lee's contract at age 35-- is what scares me.

[a700hitter]

Can we count on Lester to be our ace? No. But does that mean he's on this perpetual spiral downward? Not at all. His velocity has decreased 0.2 mph this year. That's negligible, so that argument holds no water to me. His K's have certainly dropped, but his BB's have dropped significantly as well. In fact, his K:BB ratio is at 2.49, which is higher than his career average (2.47). He's had only 2 seasons in his career in which his K:BB ratio was higher than it is this year.

 

Look, he's having a terrible year. He's not stranding the runners that get on, but he is walking fewer. His 4 seamer averaged 93.69 last year vs 93.62 this year, so it's not like he's lost arm strength like some would like you to believe.

 

He's not an ace. Certainly not. And Buchholz is a better pitcher than Lester. This team needs two top of the rotation pitchers (like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren, which I'll push until the end of the offseason). But if they only get 1 of those, and Buchholz becomes the #2 and Lester becomes your #3, that would still be a very, very strong top 3, and to be honest, I would put Lester up against any #3 in the AL. The only #3 in the MLB I wouldn't put him up against is on the Phillies.

Lester is a fine #3 if he stabilizes. The dropping k number is a problem. If the same trend continues, he could be in for trouble. The fact that his k/BB ratio is holding steady doesn't mean a whole lot to me. The increasing WHIP and hits/9 innings is worrisome, because it is reflective that he doesn't have a consistent out pitch. Ideally, I would like to see Lester competing for the #3 spot instead of just penciling him in as #3, because that would mean that the rotation would be very strong.

[Laser Show]

I read a couple of articles that have the Rangers looking at Ellsbury as a potential trade target in the off season. The voices in the media are growing saying that there is no way Ellsbury resigns with the Sox. Like I have said many a times, the Sox will place a value on Ells and if he wants more then he becomes a big trading chip.

 

Ellsbury for Andrus blockbuster? I'd take that deal every time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In all fairness, the down year has nothing to do with why I don't want Cliff. Its the 26 million per year:lol:

 

For that kind of serious money, why not save the prospects and go for Greinke? The big Red Sox deal set a precedent that deals for talent require prospects, even if it is a salary drop-- and the Phillies made it clear that they aren't just going to waive Lee.

 

Picking up Cliff Lee would mean paying 4/100 for a Cy Young caliber pitcher at ages 35-38.

Picking up Greinke would mean paying 7/160 for a Cy Young caliber pitcher at ages 30-36.

 

Say what you want about Greinke, he has been very healthy throughout his career, and his worst ERA in the last eight years has been 4.12. If it weren't for the rumored anxiety issues, he would be a thumbs up for any club in the league based on his track record. And yet, Greinke's contract-- much like Lee's contract at age 35-- is what scares me.

 

The problem is that you don't want to commit to 7 years when you can commit to 4 years. On top of that, you can likely get the Phils to pay around 3-5mm/year for Lee to get the right package back.

 

The whole discipline increase is almost exactly referring to not giving Grienke a 7 year deal. A guy who has question marks, you don't want to lock up for long term. If you get Lee, you get him for 3 years with an option. It's not something that's going to crush your team long term if it doesn't quite work as planned.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ellsbury for Andrus blockbuster? I'd take that deal every time.

 

Why would the Rangers do that? They have Andrus locked up until 2014 on a very team friendly deal (3/$14mm). I know they have Profar, but that doesn't mean they'll just dump Andrus.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester is a fine #3 if he stabilizes. The dropping k number is a problem. If the same trend continues, he could be in for trouble. The fact that his k/BB ratio is holding steady doesn't mean a whole lot to me. The increasing WHIP and hits/9 innings is worrisome, because it is reflective that he doesn't have a consistent out pitch. Ideally, I would like to see Lester competing for the #3 spot instead of just penciling him in as #3, because that would mean that the rotation would be very strong.

 

Are you ok giving Buchholz the #2 slot? I'm wondering if you would want the Sox to go out and sign a guy like Dan Haren to take over as the "Ace" role, and then have them trade for a Matt Garza who would battle Lester for the #3 slot. Haren - Buchholz - Garza - Lester - De La Rosa/Lackey.

[jopete19]

#1 thing on my list get rid of Mark Melancon. I don't care if we don't do anything else. Just get rid of him!

[Laser Show]

Why would the Rangers do that? They have Andrus locked up until 2014 on a very team friendly deal (3/$14mm). I know they have Profar, but that doesn't mean they'll just dump Andrus.

 

It wouldn't be a dump. Ellsbury is under team control for 1 more year, Andrus for 2 years. It wouldn't be a 1 for 1 deal either, as I'm sure prospects would be involved. Profar is ready to play, and if Hamilton leaves, a gaping hole opens in the outfield.

[a700hitter]

Are you ok giving Buchholz the #2 slot? I'm wondering if you would want the Sox to go out and sign a guy like Dan Haren to take over as the "Ace" role, and then have them trade for a Matt Garza who would battle Lester for the #3 slot. Haren - Buchholz - Garza - Lester - De La Rosa/Lackey.

I don't know if those are the guys that I would try to get, but yes it would be guys like that. I'd shy away from Garza, because I think he is a TJ candidate in waiting. I would see Doubs and Morales battling with Lackey and De LaRosa for the 5th slot. That rotation would be strong and deep.

[DocHolliday]

It wouldn't be a dump. Ellsbury is under team control for 1 more year, Andrus for 2 years. It wouldn't be a 1 for 1 deal either, as I'm sure prospects would be involved. Profar is ready to play, and if Hamilton leaves, a gaping hole opens in the outfield.

 

Any deal with the Rangers involving Ellsbury would have to be centered around Olt or Profar coming back. The Rangers are high on both and have been rumored to refuse any trade involving either of the two.

 

The Rangers would be getting a younger and far less risky replacement for Hamilton and would avoid having to move Kinsler into an already crowded OF with Cruz and Murphy signed for next season.

 

Obviously, Elvis is a talented and relatively young SS. But he has next to zero power and his ceiling for gaining more power isn't very high. In the Rangers home run friendly ballpark, he has averaged 4 HR per season since 2009 with his highest total 6 coming in 2009. He also doesn't really help the Sox need for a more disciplined plate approach going forward any more than Ellsbury has. His OBP has stayed around .350 the past few seasons while he walks around 60 times per season - similar to Ellsbury. Olt has been known for his superior plate discipline throughout his college and minor league career and has a much higher power ceiling than Andrus - not to mention Olt is an above average defender at both 1st and 3rd base.

 

Right now, Middlebrooks and Ortiz (assuming he resigns) are the only legitimate power threats in the lineup. Pedroia, Ross, and some of the options available through FA represent good supplementary sources of power, but this team is going to need more power and plate discipline going forward - not to mention getting younger.

 

I would take my chances with Boegarts and Marrero and live with a guy like Iglesias until one of those 2 is ready for the majors. Only question becomes, who will play CF next year if the Sox deal Ellsbury?

[RedSoxNC84]

They could take a flier on someone until Bradley is ready.

 

Andrus is a great SS, but his speed is what counts. I don't know if he would work out for the sox considering they still like to play station to station and wait on the big homer. Having someone in your lineup with not a lot of power, but plenty of speed isn't going to work unless you let them run the bases..

 

He could bat 8th or 9th for us though, unless we get rid of Ellsbury, then maybe leadoff.

[DocHolliday]

They could take a flier on someone until Bradley is ready.

 

Andrus is a great SS, but his speed is what counts. I don't know if he would work out for the sox considering they still like to play station to station and wait on the big homer. Having someone in your lineup with not a lot of power, but plenty of speed isn't going to work unless you let them run the bases..

 

He could bat 8th or 9th for us though, unless we get rid of Ellsbury, then maybe leadoff.

 

Andrus is a top of the order batter and would have to bat lead off - no question. My issue with the move is- what does Elvis give the Sox that they don't already have?

 

When healthy, Ellsbury is clearly the better player from the offensive side. Ellsbury has better ability to get on base, better speed than Andrus, and can hit for more power- even if it's not 30 HR. Defensively, I would grade them both about the same as elite for their positions.

 

The deal breaker for me comes from the stock of SS we already have in the minors. Boegarts and Marrero are at least a year away from contributing. How much is Andrus going to be worth to us for a year or so until those guys are ready? Unless the Red Sox would then use them to trade for an elite starter like a Felix Hernandez, this deal doesn't make sense.

 

I'd feel much more comfortable letting Iglesias play short until the prospects are ready and get the guy who could fill a position of need for next year AND the future, Mike Olt. If the Rangers aren't willing to deal him, the Red Sox would be better off shopping Ellsbury elsewhere or just hanging onto him for next year. Assuming both players are healthy, I have little doubt that Ellsbury gives the Sox more over a full season than Andrus would.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't know if those are the guys that I would try to get, but yes it would be guys like that. I'd shy away from Garza, because I think he is a TJ candidate in waiting. I would see Doubs and Morales battling with Lackey and De LaRosa for the 5th slot. That rotation would be strong and deep.

 

Right - I was asking more conceptually than actual players. A player like Garza (or Buehrle, or anyone who would slot as a #3/4, but a very solid #3/4).

 

I 100% agree that the #5 slot has GOT to be a battle between Doubront/Morales/Lackey/De La Rosa. Any less than that and you're not deep enough at the top.

 

Having said that, I think Doubront will be major trade bait this offseason. He's shown flashes of very good stuff, just needs another year or so to put it all together, but he's a LHP who can pump 95-96 with an above average change, which are pretty rare.

 

Also, going on the Ellsbury talk, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if a guy like Melky Cabrera gets a pillow contract to show he can play post-steroids. Nobody is going to give him big money long term if they don't know what they're getting out of him. He'd be a near-perfect fill in this year while Bradley Jr develops in AAA, and is ready for the 2014 roster.

 

Grady Sizemore, although oft injured, would be an intriguing player to consider as well. Also will be going on a 1 year deal.

 

Shin Soo Choo would be a very good fit in Boston, getting back to their high OBP roots. He's a 15-20 HR guy who will give you a .375+ OBP and 18-22 SB with elite defense. He's going into the last year of arbitration, and the Guardians likely won't sign him long term according to reports, so they'll listen on him this offseason.

[DocHolliday]

Also, going on the Ellsbury talk, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if a guy like Melky Cabrera gets a pillow contract to show he can play post-steroids. Nobody is going to give him big money long term if they don't know what they're getting out of him. He'd be a near-perfect fill in this year while Bradley Jr develops in AAA, and is ready for the 2014 roster.

 

Grady Sizemore, although oft injured, would be an intriguing player to consider as well. Also will be going on a 1 year deal.

 

Shin Soo Choo would be a very good fit in Boston, getting back to their high OBP roots. He's a 15-20 HR guy who will give you a .375+ OBP and 18-22 SB with elite defense. He's going into the last year of arbitration, and the Guardians likely won't sign him long term according to reports, so they'll listen on him this offseason.

 

All of these are intriguing options. If the Sox have learned anything from the recent past, it's to have quality options for depth at all positions. If they trade Ellsbury, they should seriously consider 2 or more of these options and let them compete for the starting job in ST. A little competition would do this complacent culture that has taken over the clubhouse in recent years a world of good.

 

But again, I'm not advocating dealing Ellsbury for the sake of getting something back. It would have to make sense for both the short and long term competitiveness of this team.

[TutGadol]

How about Ike Davis?

The Mets are said to be shopping him to move Duda to first. With the sort of rebuilding we'll see the Sox should compete again as he reaches his peek. His average should rise due to his babip getting back to usual (He had a .1 drop in his babip between this year and last).

[RedSoxNC84]

Right - I was asking more conceptually than actual players. A player like Garza (or Buehrle, or anyone who would slot as a #3/4, but a very solid #3/4).

 

I 100% agree that the #5 slot has GOT to be a battle between Doubront/Morales/Lackey/De La Rosa. Any less than that and you're not deep enough at the top.

 

Having said that, I think Doubront will be major trade bait this offseason. He's shown flashes of very good stuff, just needs another year or so to put it all together, but he's a LHP who can pump 95-96 with an above average change, which are pretty rare.

 

Also, going on the Ellsbury talk, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if a guy like Melky Cabrera gets a pillow contract to show he can play post-steroids. Nobody is going to give him big money long term if they don't know what they're getting out of him. He'd be a near-perfect fill in this year while Bradley Jr develops in AAA, and is ready for the 2014 roster.

 

Grady Sizemore, although oft injured, would be an intriguing player to consider as well. Also will be going on a 1 year deal.

 

Shin Soo Choo would be a very good fit in Boston, getting back to their high OBP roots. He's a 15-20 HR guy who will give you a .375+ OBP and 18-22 SB with elite defense. He's going into the last year of arbitration, and the Guardians likely won't sign him long term according to reports, so they'll listen on him this offseason.

 

I'd stay away from Sizemore unless he's going to be the 4th or 5th OF. He's good, but he just can't stay healthy at all.

 

I like the idea of Melky or Choo though, Choo especially.

 

 

I wonder if the Sox will shop Doubront or hold onto him?

[RedSoxNC84]

Maybe John Farrell will come back to boston so he doesn't have to deal with guys in his lineup writing "you are a faggot" in spanish on their eye black.

[a700hitter]

How about Ike Davis?

The Mets are said to be shopping him to move Duda to first. With the sort of rebuilding we'll see the Sox should compete again as he reaches his peek. His average should rise due to his babip getting back to usual (He had a .1 drop in his babip between this year and last).

He's a slower version of Carlos Pena without the slick glove. His inconsistency and his k's would make us crazy. Also, the Mets are sure to want a lot for him. Carlos Pena will surely be available this year on the cheap. I'd rather have him for one year to platoon with Mauro Gomez.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees are proving this yr that a solid #1-#5 gets you places. When Nova and Pettitte were in the rotation, we rolled. When they werent, we were meat. Our "ace" in CC hasnt been great this yr and our #2 has been pitching past what was expected. But we gained our 10 game lead due to having #1-#5 give quality starts for nearly a 45 day span. Lester can be a quality starter and pidgeon holing him into a "spot" isnt necessary. If he can sustain a 4.40ERA through the season (which sans July, he has been doing), then he fits that mold. Buchholz has been great since mid May and Doubront has shown flashes. The problem has been your other two spots. With Beckett, Cook, DiceK, et al, you have had a steaming pile of dogshit. You dont need an ace or two. You need two guys who can throw 200IP and have an ERA in the low 4's to high 3's. You get that, and your pen will stabilize and you will improve. You dont get that, or you see Lester suck, Buchholz get hurt or Doubie regress, and you are cooked again

[a700hitter]

How about Ike Davis?

The Mets are said to be shopping him to move Duda to first. With the sort of rebuilding we'll see the Sox should compete again as he reaches his peek. His average should rise due to his babip getting back to usual (He had a .1 drop in his babip between this year and last).

Mets manager Terry Collins said that the organization supports first baseman Ike Davis and that there are no questions about his work ethic or receptiveness to coaching, tweets Marc Carig of Newsday. Earlier today, we heard that the Mets will be open to trading Davis during the upcoming offseason, in part because they have concerns about his commitment. Davis quickly refuted that allegation.

Ike Davis was surprised and confused to hear that the Mets are concerned about his nightlife, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. “I have never missed games or not been ready to work because of anything to do with staying up too late,” Davis told Martino. Adam Rubin reported today that the Mets will consider trade offers for Davis, in part because they have questions about his lifestyle.

I guess he could fill the void left by Beckett.