Huge 14 game stretch coming up

[Orange Juiced]

This morning's standings (8/2/12) find the Red Sox 3.5 out of the wild card, with the following teams ahead of them: Oak, Det, TB, and Bal. The next 14 games are huge.

 

4 vs Min

3 vs Tex

4 at Cle

3 at Bal

 

Texas is obviously tough. Baltimore is ahead of them in the standings but I think they're very beatable. And they *should* handle Minnesota and Cleveland.

 

I think the Sox need to go 10-4 over this stretch. That's doable. The losses they can "afford" to have in this stretch are to Texas. They really shouldn't lose much to Minnesota or Cleveland, and they can't really afford to lose ground to Baltimore.

 

After this 14-game stretch there's a pretty tough 13-game stretch featuring the Yankees and Angels (with 4 vs. KC thrown in). Time to make some hay.

 

Lester vs. Deduno

Doubront vs. Duensing

Buchholz vs. De Vries

Beckett (maybe) vs. Blackburn

 

Time for Lester to throw a gem. It starts tonight.

[Bellhorn04]

Lester has a 7.39 ERA and 1.75 WHIP at Fenway this year. He might have to sharpen up on that just a bit.

[User Name]

Now watch the Red Sox go 9-5 sweeping Texas but losing 3 of 4 against Minnesota and losing a game to Baltimore and Cleveland.

[mvp 78]

Since May, every 2 week stretch has been considered "huge" or "make or break" for the Sox. It would be more important to have Lester turn his season around at this point. If it doesn't happen, making the WC spot wouldn't matter. The Sox would have no viable shot to compete in October.

[BornToRun]

I don't know about that. The playoffs are a huge crapshoot. Anybody who makes it in has a legitimate shot. That said, if Lester doesnt' get it together, we aren't making it that far anyway.

[a700hitter]

This morning's standings (8/2/12) find the Red Sox 3.5 out of the wild card, with the following teams ahead of them: Oak, Det, TB, and Bal. The next 14 games are huge.

 

4 vs Min

3 vs Tex

4 at Cle

3 at Bal

 

Texas is obviously tough. Baltimore is ahead of them in the standings but I think they're very beatable. And they *should* handle Minnesota and Cleveland.

 

I think the Sox need to go 10-4 over this stretch. That's doable. The losses they can "afford" to have in this stretch are to Texas. They really shouldn't lose much to Minnesota or Cleveland, and they can't really afford to lose ground to Baltimore.

 

After this 14-game stretch there's a pretty tough 13-game stretch featuring the Yankees and Angels (with 4 vs. KC thrown in). Time to make some hay.

 

Lester vs. Deduno

Doubront vs. Duensing

Buchholz vs. De Vries

Beckett (maybe) vs. Blackburn

 

Time for Lester to throw a gem. It starts tonight.

Yes, I think you are right that we will need to go about 10 -4, but that type of consistency has eluded this team all year long. Picking up ground will not be easy because the teams we are chasing will be playing each other during that period. Texas will be playing series against the Tigers and the Yankees. The Angels have series against the White Sox and Oakland. The A's have series against the Angels and the White Sox. The White Sox have series against the Angels and Oakland. We have our best chance to gain on Tampa and the O's in our division, because they each have only 1 series against teams we are fighting in the next 2 weeks. Tampa plays a series against the O's. This is our opportunity to move up in the Division.

[mvp 78]

I don't know about that. The playoffs are a huge crapshoot. Anybody who makes it in has a legitimate shot. That said' date=' if Lester doesnt' get it together, we aren't making it that far anyway.[/quote']

 

It's not enough of a crapshoot that the Sox could win a 1 game playoff and 2 series with this rotation. Buch, Doubs and Morales couldn't pitch every game. Don't expect Beckett to be in any better shape than he was in September 2011. They just don't have the arms if Lester can't be an ace.

[jung]

Who even knows what they have for a rotation at this point. They have Beckett listed to start on Sunday against the Twins....I doubt that is going to happen.....However the way they have handled injury issues lately I don't think we will hear a thing or know a thing until Sunday. Assuming he is not pitching, the rotation is what....Lester...Buch....Morales...Felix and Cook??? Wow....scary...just not for opposing teams.

[Orange Juiced]

Well, so far through this huge 14-game stretch, here's how the Sox have fared (the faint-at-heart may want to avert their eyes):

 

4 vs. Min - 1-3

3 vs. Tex - 1-2

4 at Cle - 1-2 (so far)

 

That's 3-7, folks. Against one really good team (Texas), and two teams currently sitting in the bottom 4 in the American League.

 

So much for my 10-4 prediction. And now Middlebrooks is out. Papi doesn't look like he's returning anytime soon. Morales may be hitting a wall. The bullpen is not performing as well as it was earlier in the year.

 

Good grief.......

[Orange Juiced]

Well, over that 14-game stretch, which I considered to be essentially make-or-break for the Sox, here was the final tally:

 

- Record: 5-9 (.357)

- Runs scored: 68 (4.86) - take away that one 14-run outburst and it's 54 over 13 games (4.15)

- Runs allowed: 67 (4.78) - so they ended up outscoring their opponents despite a .357 win percentage

- Record at start of stretch: 53-52

- Record at end of stretch: 58-61 (and now they've lost 2 of 3 to NY, putting them at 59-63)

- # of players going on the DL: 4 (Middlebrooks, Doubront, Padilla, Nava)

- Josh Beckett stats over that stretch: 3 g (0-2 record), 16.1 ip, 21 h, 18 er, 7 bb, 10 k, 9.92 era, 1.71 whip, 5.5 k/9 - just gruesome numbers

- Standings at the start of this stretch: Sox were 3.5 out of the WC. Now they're 7.5 out of the WC.

 

Oh, and to top it off, we have text-gate and let's-hold-a-meeting-with-ownership-to-vent-about-the-manager-gate.

 

What a wonderful job by the Red Sox during the most important stretch of the season. Good job, good effort.

[jung]

The season in a nutshell and very good evidence for why their lofty status in Runs Scored is for the most part.....meaningless...another farce like the rest of this team has been in the main.

[mvp 78]

If they didn't have this offense, they'd be the Astros.

[Orange Juiced]

The season in a nutshell and very good evidence for why their lofty status in Runs Scored is for the most part.....meaningless...another farce like the rest of this team has been in the main.

 

The Pythagorean W-L (predicted W-L based on runs scored and allowed) has the Sox at 64-58, not great, but certainly better than their current 59-63.

[resdubwhite]

If they didn't have this offense, they'd be the Astros.

 

The astros want you to take that comparison back right now.

 

 

You've hurt their feelings.

[Behindenemylines]

Going 3 and 5 against Twins and Tribe spelled the realistic end of 2012. If they had a run this should have been a minimum of 6 and 2. I'm a Diehard and will continue to follow, but need to start looking to 2013.

[Elktonnick]

The Pythagorean W-L (predicted W-L based on runs scored and allowed) has the Sox at 64-58, not great, but certainly better than their current 59-63.

 

So much for that sabermetrics nonsense.

[Youk Of The Nation]

So much for that sabermetrics nonsense.

 

You're going to dismiss the value or relevance of every bit of statistical data gathered from the beginning of baseball history because the Sox are 5 games off of a hypothetical win-loss prediction?

[v2freak]

If they didn't have this offense, they'd be the Astros.

 

Why you gotta hate on the Astros, man. They're rebuilding, and they'll be good next year.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Rebuilding the Astros is like rebuilding a skyscraper with LEGOs.

[ibot2much]

At least they made a start...cleaned house with the coaching staff