We lost the Reddick trade

[Station 13]

Hey who just homered off CC?

[User Name]

Streaky he is' date=' but a lot of professional high performance players have streaks, I'm not that impressed by that line of argument. If Reddick can string enough hot streaks together in any one year he can easily become exactly what I say he can become.[/quote']

 

Weaksauce. That doesn't dispel the issue at all.

[User Name]

Hey who just homered off CC?

 

OH MY GOD!!! INDICATION OF A 40-HR SEASON!!11!!!

[seabeachfred]

So if he hits a bunch of HR's with awful D and an OBP under .300 with a low BA' date=' we "lost" the trade no matter how good Bailey and Sweeney end up being? Don't be stupid.[/quote']

 

Well, truth be told, it wasn't one of Jacko's finest hours with that post of his. We lost no trade as of yet, only if Bailey never comes around and if Sweeney goes deep into the tank. Besides, if we could finally get Kalish playing again I really believe that we'll forget about Reddick in two shakes of a monkey's ass.

[jacksonianmarch]

So if he hits a bunch of HR's with awful D and an OBP under .300 with a low BA' date=' we "lost" the trade no matter how good Bailey and Sweeney end up being? Don't be stupid.[/quote']

 

I need to dispel a couple things...

 

1. Myth #1- poor defense- He had an 18UZR/150 in Boston last yr and he has a 12 this yr in Oakland. That is pretty damn good.

 

2. The OBP under .300- I said that he hasnt been streaking as evidenced by the fact that he is hitting homers but also isnt really hitting for a high average. When he came up with the sox last yr, he was streaking since his BA was ridiculously high. Plus, last yr, his OBP was .337. This yr, his is .335. Not sure why you need to pretend like he is going to OBP under .300. Maybe to make yourself feel better

 

If he continues to hit for 25-30HR power with a .330OBP, an OPS over .800 and top notch D, then yes, the sox lost the trade no matter how good Bailey is.

[a700hitter]

If he continues to hit for 25-30HR power with a .330OBP' date=' an OPS over .800 and top notch D, then yes, the sox lost the trade no matter how good Bailey is.[/quote']^ Yes. Relievers are not highly valued.

[jacksonianmarch]

Relievers are not inconsequential. But a reliever vs a regular putting up great power and good defense is always more important. Now if Bailey was a starter, then there is a different argument

[User Name]

1. Myth #1- poor defense- He had an 18UZR/150 in Boston last yr and he has a 12 this yr in Oakland. That is pretty damn good.

 

Haven't you been on the record saying UZR is not good for small samples? I watch almost every Red Sox game, and his D was awful.

 

2. The OBP under .300- I said that he hasnt been streaking as evidenced by the fact that he is hitting homers but also isnt really hitting for a high average. When he came up with the sox last yr, he was streaking since his BA was ridiculously high. Plus, last yr, his OBP was .337. This yr, his is .335. Not sure why you need to pretend like he is going to OBP under .300. Maybe to make yourself feel better

 

No. Don't play stupid. He started out exactly like this last year, was later exposed, and ended up with a sub .800 OPS. The possibility of significant regression is very real.

 

If he continues to hit for 25-30HR power with a .330OBP, an OPS over .800 and top notch D, then yes, the sox lost the trade no matter how good Bailey is.

 

Enormous IF, his D is not that good, and it's like if Sweeney doesn't even exist. If Sweeney ends up with an OBP over .350 and an OPS over .800 whilst Bailey comes back and pitches well down the stretch, then how is it a loss? They are also ifs, but are just as likely to happen as Reddick keeping his hot streak.

 

Keep dreaming. You're just bitter over the smelly turd that the Pineda trade ended up being.

[Dojji]

Weaksauce. That doesn't dispel the issue at all.

 

That's because it's not an issue. How many really solid players get most of their production in a couple hot months distributed across the season? Heck, Youk was very well known for it.

[Dojji]

I need to dispel a couple things...

 

1. Myth #1- poor defense- He had an 18UZR/150 in Boston last yr and he has a 12 this yr in Oakland. That is pretty damn good.

 

2. The OBP under .300- I said that he hasnt been streaking as evidenced by the fact that he is hitting homers but also isnt really hitting for a high average. When he came up with the sox last yr, he was streaking since his BA was ridiculously high. Plus, last yr, his OBP was .337. This yr, his is .335. Not sure why you need to pretend like he is going to OBP under .300. Maybe to make yourself feel better

 

If he continues to hit for 25-30HR power with a .330OBP, an OPS over .800 and top notch D, then yes, the sox lost the trade no matter how good Bailey is.

 

Jackson's right this time. You don't have to like when he's right, but if you want to be considered honest, you do have to admit it.

[SoxSport]

Right now, Mr Henry is wondering why the hell my guys traded Reddick for Bailey? Well, Mr Henry, you turned off the money, and they found a cheap way to replace Pap and get another starter, Bard, for almost free. That's why, Mr Hedgefunder.

[example1]

I really doubt Henry needs much of an explanation about why Reddick was dealt.

 

You guys are acting like the Sox didn't know what they had, or somehow should have done more due diligence before trading Reddick (and Lowrie).

 

Over 3 seasons of playing time, Reddick had 403 PAs in Boston, in 143 games. His numbers were .248/.290/.416/.706

 

In addition, he had 2003 PAs in the minor leagues over 5 seasons. His numbers were .278/.332/.500/.832.

 

Last year, during his first 182 PA he had this slash-line: .307/.357/.515/.872, with 6 HR and 25 RBI. Hell, he could have been an All-Star if those numbers kept up. They didn't.

 

The Sox knew what they had. He might end up being an .832 OPS guy in the majors during his career. That would be a nice career. If he ends up being a regular .900 OPS guy then the Sox will have been wrong, but if he returns to his career norms then it's not a franchise crushing move by any chance. Now, if Miles Head or Raul Alcantara turn into better than average pieces, then it will be obvious the Sox "lost" the trade.

 

Until we see how everything shakes out, I'm very comfortable withholding judgment.

[jung]

If-If-If...I love all this presupposition about a player that has a reputation for burning as hot and as cold as it gets with another added dose of presupposition that Bailey and Sweeney will without doubt fail.

 

So now in order to support an argument that is simply premature we are going to try to surround it with hypotheticals. Ridiculous!

[a700hitter]

I really doubt Henry needs much of an explanation about why Reddick was dealt.

 

You guys are acting like the Sox didn't know what they had, or somehow should have done more due diligence before trading Reddick (and Lowrie).

 

Over 3 seasons of playing time, Reddick had 403 PAs in Boston, in 143 games. His numbers were .248/.290/.416/.706

 

In addition, he had 2003 PAs in the minor leagues over 5 seasons. His numbers were .278/.332/.500/.832.

 

Last year, during his first 182 PA he had this slash-line: .307/.357/.515/.872, with 6 HR and 25 RBI. Hell, he could have been an All-Star if those numbers kept up. They didn't.

 

The Sox knew what they had. He might end up being an .832 OPS guy in the majors during his career. That would be a nice career. If he ends up being a regular .900 OPS guy then the Sox will have been wrong, but if he returns to his career norms then it's not a franchise crushing move by any chance. Now, if Miles Head or Raul Alcantara turn into better than average pieces, then it will be obvious the Sox "lost" the trade.

 

Until we see how everything shakes out, I'm very comfortable withholding judgment.

He has no career norms. He is just starting out. E1, for a guy who preaches patience about prospects and letting them develop, I am surprised that you are touting his first 400 plate appearance as indicative of his ceiling and that you are so willing to throw him under the bus on that basis. Most players first 400 PAs are not very good. They are just learning.

 

I am also struck by the inconsistent and contradictory stance taken by many with regard to closers. I am not aiming this at you. I don't recall your stance on this. When the Sox let Papelbon (future Red Sox Hall of Famer) walk for FA money, people said that other than Mo, there are no special closers. Basically, people argued that they were highly fungible. When Cherries got Bailey, they sung his praises despite his injury problems and the fact that he only pitched 1 maybe 2 complete seasons. Cherries was lauded for pulling off such a trade. Now, Reddick is the A's number 3 hitter in the lineup with 13 jacks and Bailey, the injury prone fungible closer is on the DL. Let's call a spade a spade.

[a700hitter]

If-If-If...I love all this presupposition about a player that has a reputation for burning as hot and as cold as it gets with another added dose of presupposition that Bailey and Sweeney will without doubt fail.

 

So now in order to support an argument that is simply premature we are going to try to surround it with hypotheticals. Ridiculous!

Sweeney is at best a 4th OFer on a major league team. He is a big slow guy (6'4" 240) with 14 HRs in 1800 PA's. Coco Crisp has more pop than that.

[Laser Show]

Now' date=' Reddick is the A's number 3 hitter in the lineup with 13 jacks[/quote']

 

The A's have an AAAA lineup though. He'd be at the bottom of most other lineups, if he even got regular playing time. He's still learning, he's stil below average. He just happens to have some power. Salty's numbers wouldn't be much different if he hit 3rd.

[a700hitter]

The A's have an AAAA lineup though. He'd be at the bottom of most other lineups' date=' if he even got regular playing time. He's still learning, he's stil below average. He just happens to have some power. Salty's numbers wouldn't be much different if he hit 3rd.[/quote']We don't know what Salty's numbers would be in a weak ineup and he was hitting number 3. When the Sox lineup was injured last year and Salty wasn't surrounded by All Star bats, he fell apart offensively.

 

Whether the A's lineup is good, bad or otherwise, their GM obtained their #3 hitter for essentially nothing. Not a bad deal for him.

[Laser Show]

We don't know what Salty's numbers would be in a weak ineup and he was hitting number 3. When the Sox lineup was injured last year and Salty wasn't surrounded by All Star bats, he fell apart offensively.

 

Whether the A's lineup is good, bad or otherwise, their GM obtained their #3 hitter for essentially nothing. Not a bad deal for him.

 

I agree that it wasn't a bad deal for Oakland. But, it also wasn't a bad deal for us. We would love to have Reddick right now, but only because we're forced to play our what, 8th string OF'ers? I think it's one of those deals that just makes sense for both sides and nobody loses.

[Bellhorn04]

I am also struck by the inconsistent and contradictory stance taken by many with regard to closers. I am not aiming this at you. I don't recall your stance on this. When the Sox let Papelbon (future Red Sox Hall of Famer) walk for FA money' date=' people said that other than Mo, there are no special closers. Basically, people argued that they were highly fungible. When Cherries got Bailey, they sung his praises despite his injury problems and the fact that he only pitched 1 maybe 2 complete seasons. Cherries was lauded for pulling off such a trade. Now, Reddick is the A's number 3 hitter in the lineup with 13 jacks and Bailey, the injury prone fungible closer is on the DL. Let's call a spade a spade.[/quote']

 

I'll give my answer on the closer question. I thought when they let Papelbon go and acquired Bailey it had the potential of being a very smart move, because I thought Bailey could be a younger and much cheaper version of Paps. But if Bailey can't stay healthy, that throws all that out the window.

 

On the other hand Aceves is doing very nicely at closer, for even less money than Bailey.

 

I'm starting to rethink the closer thing, I have to admit. I'm looking at the Rays philosophy, which seems to be-get a new closer every year. When Soriano and Benoit had lights-out seasons and wanted to be paid, the Rays said 'see ya later, we will replace you'. And they did.

[a700hitter]

I'll give my answer on the closer question. I thought when they let Papelbon go and acquired Bailey it had the potential of being a very smart move, because I thought Bailey could be a younger and much cheaper version of Paps. But if Bailey can't stay healthy, that throws all that out the window.

 

On the other hand Aceves is doing very nicely at closer, for even less money than Bailey.

 

I'm starting to rethink the closer thing, I have to admit. I'm looking at the Rays philosophy, which seems to be-get a new closer every year. When Soriano and Benoit had lights-out seasons and wanted to be paid, the Rays said 'see ya later, we will replace you'. And they did.

There isn't always a good cheap closer available. You do run the risk of having a disaster at the end of your pen. The thing with a guy like Mo and Paps is that you don't have to worry about that aspect and you can build the rest of your team. The main reason for the Yankees consistent playoff appearances IMO has been Mo. There will be a season when the Rays lose a lot of games late using their philosophy. It could be this year. Rodney is not that good.

[User Name]

It's like if Sweeney doesn't even exist.

[SoxSport]

There isn't always a good cheap closer available. You do run the risk of having a disaster at the end of your pen. The thing with a guy like Mo and Paps is that you don't have to worry about that aspect and you can build the rest of your team. The main reason for the Yankees consistent playoff appearances IMO has been Mo. There will be a season when the Rays lose a lot of games late using their philosophy. It could be this year. Rodney is not that good.

 

The Rays got lucky with Rodney. That's the way it goes.

 

Some time in the distant future, the Red Sox could get lucky again, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Rays got lucky with Rodney. That's the way it goes.

 

Some time in the distant future, the Red Sox could get lucky again, too.

 

The Rays pick up guys with power stuff coming off bad seasons. Their only big acquisition was Soriano who they dealt for.

 

2008- Percival- FA

2009- Percival imploded, hence Howell led team in saves

2010- Soriano- trade

2011- Farnsworth- FA

2012- Rodney- FA

 

Rejects off the scrap heap with power stuff who can still do the job

[jacksonianmarch]

It's like if Sweeney doesn't even exist.

 

Sweeney is coming back down to earth, has a .784 OPS and a .392BABIP.

 

To contrast that, Reddick has a .273BABIP

[NCPack2889]

Red Sox won't be a series threat until Bailey shows he is the same pitcher he was in Oakland. Aceves would have to be one of the worst closers that has ever played for a championship winning baseball team.

[seabeachfred]

The Rays got lucky with Rodney. That's the way it goes.

 

Some time in the distant future, the Red Sox could get lucky again, too.

 

Lucky again you say? When the hell is that going to be. That lady has been out to lunch since the end of the 2007 World Series. We've been hit with massive injuries, miserable managing from the dugout, an inept front office, players failing repeatedly in clutch situations, miserable signings of FA, and when we try for that low risk, high reward mantra it blows up in the team's face. It is hard to think of too many teams who have fallen as far as we have the past five seasons. The fact is that right now we suck!!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

Teams in 07 playoffs that will end the season with worse records than the Sox:

 

Cubs

DBags

Rockies

Injuns

 

overrated:

Angels

 

Old:

Yanks

 

Underperforming:

Phills

[SoxSport]

Lucky again you say? When the hell is that going to be. That lady has been out to lunch since the end of the 2007 World Series. We've been hit with massive injuries' date=' miserable managing from the dugout, an inept front office, players failing repeatedly in clutch situations, miserable signings of FA, and when we try for that low risk, high reward mantra it blows up in the team's face. It is hard to think of too many teams who have fallen as far as we have the past five seasons. The fact is that right now we suck!!!!!!!!![/quote']

 

:thumbsup:

[User Name]

Year 2:

 

Bailey (biceps soreness aside) has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball, while Reddick hits .140 with no power (albeit improved plate discipline), and is hitting 7th for the A's. Let's see what happens the rest of the year.

[iortiz]

You just can't make a judgment yet. Last year worked for A's and we needed that bat among another tons of things. Bailey was a complete bust last year. We have to wait. Hopefully Bailey is not made of glass/under perform this year... Again.