2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[FredLynn]

I think that is a combination of drafting and development. Seems like that stockpile will never end.

 

Some of it was due to high draft choices relative to us, but Friedman is a much better GM than Epstein ever was. He has less room for error. A single mistake like Lackey would ruin the franchise for years. He was not available for us to hire, unfortunately.

Showalter said last year that, essentially, Epstein would fail in a small market franchise. He later recanted it, unfortunately, because he was correct. IMO.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox are still in talks with the agent for Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

[as of January 12 at 1:49pm CST]

[FredLynn]

FWIW, here is what Gammons had to say about the Rays:

 

Q: Who wins the AL East this season?

 

Peter Gammons: I think in January, Tampa is the favorite. That’s because of their starting pitching, their flexibility, and their defense. That said, I think any one of the three best teams could finish first.

[iortiz]

Some of it was due to high draft choices relative to us, but Friedman is a much better GM than Epstein ever was. He has less room for error. A single mistake like Lackey would ruin the franchise for years. He was not available for us to hire, unfortunately.

Showalter said last year that, essentially, Epstein would fail in a small market franchise. He later recanted it, unfortunately, because he was correct. IMO.

 

Beyond baseball, Great Managers achieve extraordinary things (results) with ordinary things (limited resources). This is Andrew's Friedman case. They are 1-3 payrolls (but from the bottom) in all baseball and have succeeded in the last 5 years in arguably one of/or the toughest division in all baseball. They have owned us in the recent years. IMO They are not a fluke team anymore. In the short/mid future they shall be taken seriously. I heard that the Astros tried to hire him. I'm not sure how it ended. A700 and I said that he would have been an excellent choice for our team. Hopefully Ben shows great abilities as a GM. We'll see.

[Elktonnick]

Just as there is no data to substantiate the contrary. You have not done (and if you have, not presented) any sort of research data that proves this point. Opinion.

 

 

 

Neither is there data to prove a definite regression. "Intuition" does not a fact make. Conjecture.

 

In fact, Bill James predicts Daniel Bard to provide better production than anything we got out of the four or five spots last year.

 

He predicts Aceves to excel in a swingman role as well.

 

There is no bias in his analysis, and it directly contradicts your points. Where is your research on the subject?

 

 

 

Strawman, and not relevant to the overall discussion.

 

 

 

Where are the numbers that prove this? You mention sabermetrics yet you give me no analysis or predictions that compare the current 2012 Red Sox to the 2011 ones, in other words, there is no analysis here, merely opinion.

 

There is no objectivity here, since your bias is extremely transparent. By denying the possibility of several players' performances going the other way from what you "expect" shows your lack of objectivity.

 

Do the research yourself. I wasn't presenting a dissertation I was making the point at this time last year compared to this time this year. I could be wrong but I don't think James made any projections on Bard as a starter but only as a reliever. If he has how many starts and how many innings does he project? And what analytical tools did he use to arrive at those conclusions?

 

Again you love to use the word strawman but I don't think you know what it means in logic and rhetoric. Since you accuse me and others of employing this technique why don't you enlighten us as to its precise definition?

Every time I ask you a direct question you fail to answer it. So I am curious if you can?

 

Fact is this team is worse than last years

[User Name]

Some of it was due to high draft choices relative to us, but Friedman is a much better GM than Epstein ever was. He has less room for error. A single mistake like Lackey would ruin the franchise for years. He was not available for us to hire, unfortunately.

Showalter said last year that, essentially, Epstein would fail in a small market franchise. He later recanted it, unfortunately, because he was correct. IMO.

 

We get it. You didn't like Epstein. But this analysis is very hard to take seriously because of it.

[User Name]

Do the research yourself. I wasn't presenting a dissertation I was making the point at this time last year compared to this time this year. I could be wrong but I don't think James made any projections on Bard as a starter but only as a reliever. If he has how many starts and how many innings does he project? And what analytical tools did he use to arrive at those conclusions?

 

Did you not read the post? I did the research. I used Bill James' projections. I find it laughable for you to try to discredit his analysis, which is undoubtedly less biased than yours.

 

Bill James uses a projections formula used to arrive at his conclusions. No more, no less. But they are unbiased, unlike the opinions you love to pass off as fact.

 

Again you love to use the word strawman but I don't think you know what it means in logic and rhetoric. Since you accuse me and others of employing this technique why don't you enlighten us as to its precise definition?

 

Then where did i say that Bailey was better than Papelbon? That was a strawman you set up. Sorry, a spade is a spade.

 

Every time I ask you a direct question you fail to answer it. So I am curious if you can?

 

Fact is this team is worse than last years

 

Again, this is an opinion you are trying to pass off as fact. The line between the two is not blurry.

[a700hitter]

Forget about explaining why our 2012 pitching as currently constructed is worse than our 2011 pitching. People have made this case over and over. The answer that we are getting is that we can't be sure. Okay' date=' that's really an effective parry. Puhlease! [b']How about someone attempting to make the case (backed up with facts and stats) that our 2012 pitching as currently constructed will be better than our 2011 pitching. Have at it.[/b]

 

My guess is that they will all run for the doors or continue to argue that we can't know that our pitching will be worse. I'd like to hear why it will be better. Please leave out that we will have Buch back for the whole season. Injuries are part of the game, and our top 3 haven't been healthy for an entire season in several years.

We're still waiting to hear from the so-called optimists on this. As predicted, they got nothing.:thumbdown

[User Name]

I think that is a combination of drafting and development. Seems like that stockpile will never end.

 

It will end. Small-market teams have to go through a rebuilding period every so often. When that happens, the "Andrew Friedman is a genius" rhetoric will end.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of it was due to high draft choices relative to us, but Friedman is a much better GM than Epstein ever was. He has less room for error. A single mistake like Lackey would ruin the franchise for years. He was not available for us to hire, unfortunately.

Showalter said last year that, essentially, Epstein would fail in a small market franchise. He later recanted it, unfortunately, because he was correct. IMO.

 

Friedman has done a great job with the Rays but nobody knows how he would do with a big-market team and a big budget. The Rays don't have busts like Lackey because they can't afford them to begin with. The Rays made sort of a splashy free agent signing when they signed Pat Burrell. And he was a flop.

[Elktonnick]

Did you not read the post? I did the research. I used Bill James' projections. I find it laughable for you to try to discredit his analysis' date=' which is undoubtedly less biased than yours. [/b']Bill James uses a projections formula used to arrive at his conclusions. No more, no less. But they are unbiased, unlike the opinions you love to pass off as fact.

 

 

 

Then where did i say that Bailey was better than Papelbon? That was a strawman you set up. Sorry, a spade is a spade.

 

 

 

Again, this is an opinion you are trying to pass off as fact. The line between the two is not blurry.

I don't want to call you a liar but here are the actual projections:

2012 Bill James 6 2 2 64 0 70.0 10.16 3.21 0.77 .266 2.31 3.14

2012 RotoChamp 14 7 0 155.0 9.35 3.25 0.70 .292 3.43 3.19

2012 Fans (13) 7 5 12 46 19 155.0 9.35 3.08 0.81 .299 76.3 % 3.25 3.32 3.2

Total - - -

 

I copied them from fanograph. Anyone who goes to that page will see that James never projects Bard as a starter. You flat out misrepresented the stats as I knew you would, as you always do. You never answer questions only accuse. You sir are without shame and without any intellectual integrity.

[seabeachfred]

Why's it always the butthurt old timers who bitch up a storm whenever the Red Sox don't sign somebody? I mean, you think they would've learned from the countless other Red Sox teams that failed by making nothing but quick fix signings.

 

I can literally feel my brain cells committing suicide reading some of this ********.

 

Maybe Jacoby you could a thing or two about signing dregs and garbage from recent Red So history. Just jog back to 2009. After we blew the Teixeira negotiations to kingdom come we opted for the low risk high reward ******** that some on this board seem to like. REMEMBER THAT? How did that work out. Baldelli went lame and Smoltz and Penny literally stunk out the house. That way doesn't work either, does it? Well that's what we're seeing now. If your brain cells feel bad now just wait until to see Carlos Hi Ho Silver, Aaron Short Order Cook or Deutschland Justin Germano out on the mound getting the living s*** knocked out of them. That will test those brain cells of yours to the max.

 

Of course you could always hope that our new infield acquisition, Brian The Rat Emaus, gets one of his rare hits for the home team. That ought to keep you up in anticipation. Look, we need a quality No. 4 starter who can eat innings and be a winning pitcher for us, and now that Bobby Junk Food Jenks has eaten his way out of the bullpen again, another decent reliever. Believe me, no one enjoys complaining but unless you're a masochist you can't be happy with the piles of human baseball garbage we've signed this winter.

[RedSoxNC84]

Red Sox Meet With Vicente Padilla

By Nick Collias [January 12, 2012 at 12:28pm CST]

Two days after signing Aaron Cook, the Red Sox are scouting another low-risk righty looking to rebound from injury. Vicente Padilla took leave of his native Nicaraguan winter league yesterday in order to fly to Boston, where he will be checked over today by team doctors, reports Francisco Jarqu?n Soto at the Nicaraguan paper El Nuevo Diario.

 

Padilla made only nine appearances for the Dodgers in 2011, all in relief, before neck problems ended his season in June. He also briefly took over the closer's job from Jonathan Broxton, though in recent years the 34-year-old has been a swingman and spot starter (he thrived in the role as recently as 2010). He has reportedly been hitting 95-96 mph with his fastball this winter in Nicaragua, and has said he wants to fight for a rotation spot. Seeing as the Red Sox have no shortage of hard-throwing righties in their revamped pen, Padilla could get his wish if his health permits.

[iortiz]

We get it. You didn't like Epstein. But this analysis is very hard to take seriously because of it.

 

Well, as I said, We should evaluate Epstein's tenure after/before 2008. Before 2008 some have graded him from B to A. After 2008 some have graded him from F to C.

 

The thing is that he had plenty access to all kind resources in all his tenure in Boston. Friedman didn't. Can Friedman perform in a big market team? My logic says yes. Can Theo perform in a small market team? I'm not sure if he can deliver results with a limited budget.

[User Name]

I don't want to call you a liar but here are the actual projections:

2012 Bill James 6 2 2 64 0 70.0 10.16 3.21 0.77 .266 2.31 3.14

2012 RotoChamp 14 7 0 155.0 9.35 3.25 0.70 .292 3.43 3.19

2012 Fans (13) 7 5 12 46 19 155.0 9.35 3.08 0.81 .299 76.3 % 3.25 3.32 3.2

Total - - -

 

I copied them from fanograph. Anyone who goes to that page will see that James never projects Bard as a starter. You flat out misrepresented the stats as I knew you would, as you always do. You never answer questions only accuse. You sir are without shame and without any intellectual integrity.

 

It's actually RotoChamp that has him projected as a starter. They actually use a projections formula similar to the one Bill James uses. I'm sorry that you have to base your entire argument on the fact that i misread the rankings from similar sources.

 

Reeks of desperation.

 

Also, if anyone misinterprets stats here it's you. Lest i point you yet again to the Tango incident.

[Bellhorn04]

We're still waiting to hear from the so-called optimists on this. As predicted' date=' they got nothing.:thumbdown[/quote']

 

I'm not necessarily optimistic about our pitching this year, but I will give a simplistic answer on why there's no reason to think it will be worse.

 

We have lost one relief pitcher who had a good year last year. We have added two relief pitchers who had good years last year.

 

Any other pitchers we've lost (Lackey, Dice etc.) had bad years last year.

 

Am I missing something as far as what we've lost from last year?

[User Name]

Well, as I said, We should evaluate Epstein's tenure after/before 2008. Before 2008 some have graded him from B to A. After 2008 some have graded him from F to C.

 

The thing is that he had plenty access to all kind resources in all his tenure in Boston. Friedman didn't. Can Friedman perform in a big market team? My logic says yes. Can Theo perform in a small market team? I'm not sure if he can deliver results with a limited budget.

 

Maybe he could have with that drafting position. We'll never know.

[iortiz]

It will end. Small-market teams have to go through a rebuilding period every so often. When that happens' date=' the "Andrew Friedman is a genius" rhetoric will end.[/quote']

 

It is not a rhetoric. He has made pretty good things in TB. Facts don't lie. I'm not sure why you want take away his credit.

[RedSoxNC84]

Maybe Jacoby you could a thing or two about signing dregs and garbage from recent Red So history. Just jog back to 2009. After we blew the Teixeira negotiations to kingdom come we opted for the low risk high reward ******** that some on this board seem to like. REMEMBER THAT? How did that work out. Baldelli went lame and Smoltz and Penny literally stunk out the house. That way doesn't work either, does it? Well that's what we're seeing now. If your brain cells feel bad now just wait until to see Carlos Hi Ho Silver, Aaron Short Order Cook or Deutschland Justin Germano out on the mound getting the living s*** knocked out of them. That will test those brain cells of yours to the max.

 

Of course you could always hope that our new infield acquisition, Brian The Rat Emaus, gets one of his rare hits for the home team. That ought to keep you up in anticipation. Look, we need a quality No. 4 starter who can eat innings and be a winning pitcher for us, and now that Bobby Junk Food Jenks has eaten his way out of the bullpen again, another decent reliever. Believe me, no one enjoys complaining but unless you're a masochist you can't be happy with the piles of human baseball garbage we've signed this winter.

 

I would imagine that some of these guys, after battling it out in spring training for the depth role, that at least a few of them will either be stashed away in the minors, or even released. I can't see the Sox keeping all of these guys around, especially when all of their contracts are chump change, and it would barely cost anything to cut them out if we get any better options down the road.

[User Name]

It is not a rhetoric. He has done pretty good thing in TB. Facts doesn't lie. I'm not sure why you want take away his credit.

 

Oh i give him credit. But let's not pretend that he's mistake-free. No GM is.

[RedSoxNC84]

Oh i give him credit. But let's not pretend that he's mistake-free. Every GM is.

 

Every GM is mistake free?

[User Name]

Every GM is mistake free?

 

I fixed that. I meant NO GM IS MISTAKE FREE. My bad.

[RedSoxNC84]

I fixed that. I meant NO GM IS MISTAKE FREE. My bad.

 

I know what you meant, just couldn't help myself there.

[iortiz]

Oh i give him credit. But let's not pretend that he's mistake-free. Every GM is.

 

mmmm nobody is pretending that, he is a great GM. IMO he is the best GM in all baseball in recent years (considering resources vs achievements).

[RedSoxNC84]

mmmm nobody is pretending that' date=' he is a great GM. IMO he is the best GM in all baseball in recent years (considering resources vs achievements).[/quote']

 

To his credit, I do believe he did some smart drafting, but it does help that TB had good drafting position from all those years losing.

[iortiz]

To his credit' date=' I do believe he did some smart drafting, but it does help that TB had good drafting position from all those years losing.[/quote']

Yup, but he capitalized that opportunity (drafting) with results . Other small market teams didn't.

[Elktonnick]

It's actually RotoChamp that has him projected as a starter. They actually use a projections formula similar to the one Bill James uses. I'm sorry that you have to base your entire argument on the fact that i misread the rankings from similar sources.

 

Reeks of desperation.

 

Also, if anyone misinterprets stats here it's you. Lest i point you yet again to the Tango incident.

 

You didn't know who Tango was until I cited from his book. You said Tango wasn't a sabermetrician.

You said James. And called me out yet you were the opne who was wrong You are a liar you have no idea of the mathematics behind the projections. You have no idea of the mathematics behind sabermetrics. You are a poser and intellectually dishonest.

 

I'll be stunned the day you ever actually answer a question honestly.

[RedSoxNC84]

Yup' date=' but he capitalized that opportunity (drafting) with results . Other small market teams didn't.[/quote']

 

Which is why I was giving him credit, I do believe he has drafted very smart in recent years.

[iortiz]

Which is why I was giving him credit' date=' I do believe he has drafted very smart in recent years.[/quote']

 

Agree.

[User Name]

You didn't know who Tango was until I cited from his book. You said Tango wasn't a sabermetrician.

 

That's a lie.

 

You said James. And called me out yet you were the opne who was wrong You are a liar you have no idea of the mathematics behind the projections. You have no idea of the mathematics behind sabermetrics. You are a poser and intellectually dishonest.

 

I made a mistake because the projection systems are similar. That's the reason why they are both listed on Fangraphs, and in fact, appear in your post.

 

This is also not the point of the argument, the point being that you try to pass your opinion off as fact.

 

You haven't countered that argument and instead resort to weaksauce arguments like this one. Congratulations, you have proven nothing.

 

Prove why your opinions are "fact". I'm waiting.

 

I'll be stunned the day you ever actually answer a question honestly.

 

Says the guy who intentionally misinterpreted Tango's position on sacrificing and Stolen Bases. Either that or you pulled his name off the internet. What a joke.