2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[FredLynn]

No, you called the evidence you provided from bleacherreport a fact. It isn't. You stated several facts about personnel change, and then suggested your conclusion, which is your opinion, was indisputable. It's not.

 

Given the amount of personnel change, the vairable nature of player performance from year to year, and a couple of other factors, the projected performance of the 2012 Red Sox pitching staff is very much up for debate. Facts like the final ranking of the pitching staff in ERA from 2011 are pretty much irrelevant for 2012 when you consider these factors. It's looking like 50% of the starts and over 50% of the bullpen innings will be pitched by different personnel. Yeah, the Millenium Falcon may have made the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs, but it's got a new power plant now. You are comparing apples to orangutans.

 

Why would I want you to list them again when my issue isn't with what you listed, but how you classify it?

 

I believe I called it "evidence".

 

Here is the post:

Here you go. I am providing some evidence that some experts also think that we are no better than THIRD BEST in the ALE right now. The Bleacher Report ranks us at #8, the Rays at #6, and the Yankees...

 

Its opinion, the opinion of a respected source with more baseball knowledge than most. Its not quite "expert testimony". But there is a reason they are a published group. If their opinions were consistently nonsense then they would be no better than you or I. The Bleacher Report has a certain amount of credibility..but its still opinion (educated).

Here is how our pitching ranked relative to the rest of the AL for the last three years:

2011: 9th

2010: 9th

2009: 7th

 

Why would you expect that the additions made so far would suddenly put us in a position to have a much better result? We lost our closer; we lost Wheeler (who was actually very effective after mid May). We gained to pretty good guys who might work out in the pen. We have not hired a single good SP. The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.

Its possible that Jenks could have an ERA under 2, or that Miller will suddenly become a ML pitcher. But I would not bet my farm on it.

[ORS]

I believe I called it "evidence". Its opinion, the opinion of a respected source with more baseball knowledge than most. Its not quite "expert testimony". But there is a reason they are a published group. If their opinions were consistently nonsense then they would be no better than you or I. The Bleacher Report has a certain amount of credibility..but its still opinion (educated).

Here is how our pitching ranked relative to the rest of the AL for the last three years:

2011: 9th

2010: 9th

2009: 7th

 

Why would you expect that the additions made so far would suddenly put us in a position to have a much better result? We lost our closer; we lost Wheeler (who was actually very effective after mid May). We gained to pretty good guys who might work out in the pen. We have not hired a single good SP. The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.

Its possible that Jenks could have an ERA under 2, or that Miller will suddenly become a ML pitcher. But I would not bet my farm on it.

No, check the history, you called it fact.

 

You posted the link.

 

redsoxrules said the opinion of "experts" was useless (I agree - lest we would still be celebrating a Red Sox 2011 WS title)

 

You said it was hard to debate someone who ignored facts.

 

That's the summary. You called the bleacherreport "fact".

 

How are they doing the same thing? You just said there was a bunch of personnel turnover. Furthermore, the person responsible for creating the roster has changed. How is that status quo?

 

EDIT: Also, in 2009, 2010, and 2011 you had a pretty consistent rotation (Lester, Beckett, Wakefield, with Matsuzaka/Lackey contributing similarly - both in inning amount and general suckery) and bullpen. 2012 looks like it will have significant turnover.

[User Name]

New manager, new GM, new conditioning personnel, roster turnover. If the 2012 Red Sox are about something, that something is change.

[iortiz]

a700 can explain it to you, he did "coin the phrase" in 2008;)

 

Dumpster diving is the practice of sifting through commercial or residential trash to find items that have been discarded by their owners, but that may be useful to the dumpster diver.

 

Ohhh I see. You're very kind VA. Thanks.

 

Maybe the moneyball approach could be related in some way with this term.

[FredLynn]

No, check the history, you called it fact.

 

You posted the link.

 

redsoxrules said the opinion of "experts" was useless (I agree - lest we would still be celebrating a Red Sox 2011 WS title)

 

You said it was hard to debate someone who ignored facts.

 

That's the summary. You called the bleacherreport "fact".

 

How are they doing the same thing? You just said there was a bunch of personnel turnover. Furthermore, the person responsible for creating the roster has changed. How is that status quo?

 

See above. I edited the post to review what I actually wrote. It is a FACT that the "experts" at Bleacher Report ranked us below the Rays and Yankees. That is their OPINION. And it is my opinion that they are right.

[Elktonnick]

See above. I edited the post to review what I actually wrote. It is a FACT that the "experts" at Bleacher Report ranked us below the Rays and Yankees. That is their OPINION. And it is my opinion that they are right.

 

Factually as we sit here the pitching staff is weaker than last years. Lackey and Dice K started the 2011 year with Wakefield as the 6th. Now we have who? 4 and 5 starters are either unkown or at best Bard or Aceves neither of whom have a significant track record as ML starters. The bull pen, Paps is gone. Is Bailey better than Paps, factually you can't make that case. Rf who? Sweeney? Factually is Sweeney better than Drew defenseively. I think not. Offensively Drew in the spring of 2011certainly looked better than a Sweeney does right now and we did have Reddick.

 

Depth we really have none when we compare to 2011. Most of the players signed by BC are suspects never real prospects.

 

Just based on what we know factually, this team right now is worse than the 2011 team was at this point in time. One can hope it will turn out better but factually you can't make that case successfully.

[Johnny]

Oh' date=' i thought we weren't supposed to get personal here. So much for that. Well not much more could be expected from you, honestly.[/quote']

 

No surprise there

 

Their repetitive ******** gets old very quick everywhere they go to

[User Name]

Factually as we sit here the pitching staff is weaker than last years. Lackey and Dice K started the 2011 year with Wakefield as the 6th. Now we have who? 4 and 5 starters are either unkown or at best Bard or Aceves neither of whom have a significant track record as ML starters. The bull pen, Paps is gone. Is Bailey better than Paps, factually you can't make that case. Rf who? Sweeney? Factually is Sweeney better than Drew defenseively. I think not. Offensively Drew in the spring of 2011certainly looked better than a Sweeney does right now and we did have Reddick.

 

Depth we really have none when we compare to 2011. Most of the players signed by BC are suspects never real prospects.

 

Just based on what we know factually, this team right now is worse than the 2011 team was at this point in time. One can hope it will turn out better but factually you can't make that case successfully.

 

This is the basis of your error. Because you have no way to accurately predict the performance of a lot of these players, the statements you coin as "factual" are splashed with bias and oppinion. Not to mention that all of this is still irrelevant until the roster is completed.

 

Just take your point about depth: How can you be so sure tat Silva and Cook or one of those other guys will not provide a league average performance?

 

The problem is you can't. And any attempt to state otherwise is merely opinion.

[iortiz]

I wouldn't call what the Marlins have been doing to be rebuilding. For the last several years they have been a failing small market franchise with a small budget. They are getting a new stadium and they are making a big push to establish a foothold with a fan base. This is probably their last shot to make things work there.

 

 

The Cubs are in a very different spot. They are in a big market with a loyal fan base and a lot of money for payroll. There is no need to be rebuilding like a small market team with a small budget. That's my opinion.

 

As you said, they have been a small market team trying to survive in the recent years. This offseason, they have showed a lot of signs of truly want to rebuild this team. Now, They are very serious in this regard. This rebuilding process just started. It is not like they have started 5 years ago. I'm not sure if they are going to be a contender team next season, but all the signs show that they want to make that big step. In the recent past? Nahhh.

[a700hitter]

There's nothing that anyone can point to that makes me believe that our 2012 starting staff or bullpen will be better in 2012 than 2011. The three best guys from our bullpen are no loner there. Two of them are headed to the rotation to be starters, something neither has done as a regular major league role. Bard sucked as a starter in the minors. To expect the 2012 pitching to be improved based on the personnel changes requires blind faith in the success of Bard and Aceves in their new roles. I'd love to see that, but I am not expecting that. I have no basis to believe that will be the case. If they both flop were screwed. If one flops that could also throw the season in the toilet. If we get an established 4th starter, we can have Bard and Aceves compete for the 5th spot. We'd only need one of them to succeed. The other one would go back to the bullpen which would help the pen. Getting another starter is the far superior scenario. As things stand now, our pitching could rapidly fall apart.

[a700hitter]

I'm not big into predicting these things' date=' but I have a good feeling about Bard becoming a starter. Aceves I think is perfect for the role he had last year and I'd like to see him stay there.[/quote']And who do you think will be the other starter?

[User Name]

Red Sox Meet With Vicente Padilla

By Nick Collias [January 12 at 12:28pm CST]

Two days after signing Aaron Cook, the Red Sox are scouting another low-risk righty looking to rebound from injury. Vicente Padilla took leave of his native Nicaraguan winter league yesterday in order to fly to Boston, where he will be checked over today by team doctors, reports Francisco Jarqu?n Soto at the Nicaraguan paper El Nuevo Diario.

 

Padilla made only nine appearances for the Dodgers in 2011, all in relief, before neck problems ended his season in June. He also briefly took over the closer's job from Jonathan Broxton, though in recent years the 34-year-old has been a swingman and spot starter (he thrived in the role as recently as 2010). He has reportedly been hitting 95-96 mph with his fastball this winter in Nicaragua, and has said he wants to fight for a rotation spot. Seeing as the Red Sox have no shortage of hard-throwing righties in their revamped pen, Padilla could get his wish if his health permits.

 

I would approve if he takes little money on a non-guaranteed contract.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox Meet With Vicente Padilla

By Nick Collias [January 12 at 12:28pm CST]

 

Two days after signing Aaron Cook, the Red Sox are scouting another low-risk righty looking to rebound from injury. Vicente Padilla took leave of his native Nicaraguan winter league yesterday in order to fly to Boston, where he will be checked over today by team doctors, reports Francisco Jarqu?n Soto at the Nicaraguan paper El Nuevo Diario.

 

Padilla made only nine appearances for the Dodgers in 2011, all in relief, before neck problems ended his season in June. He also briefly took over the closer's job from Jonathan Broxton, though in recent years the 34-year-old has been a swingman and spot starter (he thrived in the role as recently as 2010). He has reportedly been hitting 95-96 mph with his fastball this winter in Nicaragua, and has said he wants to fight for a rotation spot. Seeing as the Red Sox have no shortage of hard-throwing righties in their revamped pen, Padilla could get his wish if his health permits.

Great! Add a psycho-retread to the mix.

[Elktonnick]

This is the basis of your error. Because you have no way to accurately predict the performance of a lot of these players, the statements you coin as "factual" are splashed with bias and oppinion. Not to mention that all of this is still irrelevant until the roster is completed.

 

Just take your point about depth: How can you be so sure tat Silva and Cook or one of those other guys will not provide a league average performance?

 

The problem is you can't. And any attempt to state otherwise is merely opinion.

 

Facts are we are speaking of this moment in time compared to the same moment in time a year ago. Facts compare the records of the players designated for the corresponding positions year to year. You will see that fact based comparative analysis would demonstrate the team today is worse than last year's at the same points in time. We don't have a 4 or 5 th starting pitchers with any experiences. We hope Bard and Aceves will be better than Lackey or Dice-K but there is no data to substantiate that view.

 

In the absence of data in fact based analysis one can't make the claim that there is improvement. At this point in time we had objective data to believe Dice-K and Lackey would perform at a certain level. We have no such data for either Bard or Aceves. The limited data available on Bard and Acevesas starters suggests that statistically Bard and Aceves aren't as likely to perform as well as starters as either Lackey and Dice-K were expected to perform at this point in time last year. Intuitively one knows this because neither were considered frontline starters at any time last year.

 

Bailey better than Paps surely you jest?

 

As for accurate predictions based on data, isn't that what sabermetrics is all about. It is using data on past performances to predict future results with some degree of confidence and objectivity.

[FredLynn]

There's nothing that anyone can point to that makes me believe that our 2012 starting staff or bullpen will be better in 2012 than 2011. The three best guys from our bullpen are no loner there. Two of them are headed to the rotation to be starters' date=' something neither has done as a regular major league role. Bard sucked as a starter in the minors. To expect the 2012 pitching to be improved based on the personnel changes requires blind faith in the success of Bard and Aceves in their new roles. I'd love to see that, but I am not expecting that. I have no basis to believe that will be the case. If they both flop were screwed. If one flops that could also throw the season in the toilet. If we get an established 4th starter, we can have Bard and Aceves compete for the 5th spot. We'd only need one of them to succeed. The other one would go back to the bullpen which would help the pen. Getting another starter is the far superior scenario. As things stand now, our pitching could rapidly fall apart.[/quote']

 

Its obvious that no one can accurately predict future performance based on what a player or players did in the past. Nevertheless, past performance is the single best predictor of future performance. Thats why we paid guys like Gonzalez massive amounts of money and guys like Scutaro relatively less. Now I am not going to tell you here that I know for a fact that Gonzo will have a better year than Scutaro or Sweeney, but I think its a pretty safe bet.

Our pitching staff ranked middle of the pack for the past three years. That should tell you something about the talent level of our staff. We have signed no one of consequence as a SP, and we have swapped two effective RP for two possible effective RP. Thats a net gain of zero in my book. Past performance would indicate that MOST LIKELY our pitching staff will be mediocre once again. There is a small chance that they will either dramatically improve or even dramatically deteriorate. I think that if asked how our staff AS CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED will perform next year, most intelligent people IF THEY WERE FORCED TO CHOOSE, would say that they will be about the same, in light of the lack of major improvements.

Thats just the way it is. Now we can HOPE that the staff is better, and thats fine. There is always room for optimism. But the REALITY is that we are most likely not going to do better in that category unless more talent is infused.

[iortiz]

It seems some members around here misunderstand the concept of "depth". If a starting pitcher is good enough to be part of a starting rotation, he will become part of a team's starting rotation, therefore not being a "depth" possibility.

 

Joe Saunders does not constitute pitching depth. Aaron Cook constitutes pitching depth,

 

Mmmmm... It depends on what kind of quality you want in your depth... If you already have a solid rotation and then you hire a guy like Saunders, He could initially take a depth position and then... who knows? he could take a spot in the rotation whether someone gets an injury or underperform. With him, your rotation would look like very similar. With Cook is a different story; he is a long shot. Last year our "pitching depth" was horrible. This year with all those signings, our depth is not encouraging again, regardless still, the #4 and #5 spots are a question mark. I think that it is the point of the discussion.

 

IMO the depth should be build mostly with your farm rather than crappy pitchers. Doubrount and Wilson should be part of our pitching depth. The problem is that our pitching in the farm is not enough/ready.

[FredLynn]

Mmmmm... It depends on what kind of quality you want in your depth... If you already have a solid rotation and then you hire a guy like Saunders, He could initially take a depth position and then... who knows? he could take a spot in the rotation if someone gets an injury or underperform. With him, your rotation would look like very similar. With Cook is a different story he is a long shot. Last year our "pitching depth" was horrible. This year with all those signings our depth is not encouraging again, regardless still, the #4 and #5 spots are a question mark. I think that it is the point of the discussion.

 

IMO the depth should be build mostly with your farm rather than crappy pitchers. Doubrount and Wilson should be part of our pitching depth. The problem is that our pitching farm is not enough.

 

Truth is, Ortiz, that no team has great pitchers in their "depth" positions. Our problem is that we have NO #4 SP and an untested #5 SP. Unless we get very very solid at those five top SP spots its going to be a very very long summer.

[a700hitter]

Facts are we are speaking of this moment in time compared to the same moment in time a year ago. Facts compare the records of the players designated for the corresponding positions year to year. You will see that fact based comparative analysis would demonstrate the team today is worse than last year's at the same points in time. We don't have a 4 or 5 th starting pitchers with any experiences. We hope Bard and Aceves will be better than Lackey or Dice-K but there is no data to substantiate that view.

 

In the absence of data in fact based analysis one can't make the claim that there is improvement. At this point in time we had objective data to believe Dice-K and Lackey would perform at a certain level. We have no such data for either Bard or Aceves. The limited data available on Bard and Acevesas starters suggests that statistically Bard and Aceves aren't as likely to perform as well as starters as either Lackey and Dice-K were expected to perform at this point in time last year. Intuitively one knows this because neither were considered frontline starters at any time last year.

 

Bailey better than Paps surely you jest?

 

As for accurate predictions based on data, isn't that what sabermetrics is all about. It is using data on past performances to predict future results with some degree of confidence and objectivity.

Forget about explaining why our 2012 pitching as currently constructed is worse than our 2011 pitching. People have made this case over and over. The answer that we are getting is that we can't be sure. Okay, that's really an effective parry. Puhlease! How about someone attempting to make the case (backed up with facts and stats) that our 2012 pitching as currently constructed will be better than our 2011 pitching. Have at it.

 

My guess is that they will all run for the doors or continue to argue that we can't know that our pitching will be worse. I'd like to hear why it will be better. Please leave out that we will have Buch back for the whole season. Injuries are part of the game, and our top 3 haven't been healthy for an entire season in several years.

[User Name]

Facts are we are speaking of this moment in time compared to the same moment in time a year ago. Facts compare the records of the players designated for the corresponding positions year to year. You will see that fact based comparative analysis would demonstrate the team today is worse than last year's at the same points in time. We don't have a 4 or 5 th starting pitchers with any experiences. We hope Bard and Aceves will be better than Lackey or Dice-K but there is no data to substantiate that view.

 

Just as there is no data to substantiate the contrary. You have not done (and if you have, not presented) any sort of research data that proves this point. Opinion.

 

In the absence of data in fact based analysis one can't make the claim that there is improvement. At this point in time we had objective data to believe Dice-K and Lackey would perform at a certain level. We have no such data for either Bard or Aceves. The limited data available on Bard and Acevesas starters suggests that statistically Bard and Aceves aren't as likely to perform as well as starters as either Lackey and Dice-K were expected to perform at this point in time last year. Intuitively one knows this because neither were considered frontline starters at any time last year.

 

Neither is there data to prove a definite regression. "Intuition" does not a fact make. Conjecture.

 

In fact, Bill James predicts Daniel Bard to provide better production than anything we got out of the four or five spots last year.

 

He predicts Aceves to excel in a swingman role as well.

 

There is no bias in his analysis, and it directly contradicts your points. Where is your research on the subject?

 

Bailey better than Paps surely you jest?

 

Strawman, and not relevant to the overall discussion.

 

As for accurate predictions based on data, isn't that what sabermetrics is all about. It is using data on past performances to predict future results with some degree of confidence and objectivity.

 

Where are the numbers that prove this? You mention sabermetrics yet you give me no analysis or predictions that compare the current 2012 Red Sox to the 2011 ones, in other words, there is no analysis here, merely opinion.

 

There is no objectivity here, since your bias is extremely transparent. By denying the possibility of several players' performances going the other way from what you "expect" shows your lack of objectivity.

[User Name]

Mmmmm... It depends on what kind of quality you want in your depth... If you already have a solid rotation and then you hire a guy like Saunders, He could initially take a depth position and then... who knows? he could take a spot in the rotation whether someone gets an injury or underperform. With him, your rotation would look like very similar. With Cook is a different story; he is a long shot. Last year our "pitching depth" was horrible. This year with all those signings, our depth is not encouraging again, regardless still, the #4 and #5 spots are a question mark. I think that it is the point of the discussion.

 

IMO the depth should be build mostly with your farm rather than crappy pitchers. Doubrount and Wilson should be part of our pitching depth. The problem is that our pitching in the farm is not enough/ready.

 

I was talking specifically about depth brought from Free Agency.

 

However, think about this: Why would Saunders take a "depth" position when he has two-year offers standing to be a member of a starting rotation?

 

You know why that is? Because Free Agent pitchers who are good enough to crack a team's opening Day Starting Rotation will pitch for team's Opening Day Starting Rotations.

[User Name]

Forget about explaining why our 2012 pitching as currently constructed is worse than our 2011 pitching. People have made this case over and over. The answer that we are getting is that we can't be sure. Okay, that's really an effective parry. Puhlease! How about someone attempting to make the case (backed up with facts and stats) that our 2012 pitching as currently constructed will be better than our 2011 pitching. Have at it.

 

My guess is that they will all run for the doors or continue to argue that we can't know that our pitching will be worse. I'd like to hear why it will be better. Please leave out that we will have Buch back for the whole season. Injuries are part of the game, and our top 3 haven't been healthy for an entire season in several years.

 

Why would they? No matter how the analysis is presented, you would dismiss it with biased analysis.

[iortiz]

Truth is' date=' Ortiz, that no team has great pitchers in their "depth" positions. Our problem is that we have NO #4 SP and an untested #5 SP. Unless we get very very solid at those five top SP spots its going to be a very very long summer.[/quote']

 

Yes, this is true, but you can have a decent/solid depth as well. As I said, I prefer young proved AAA kids as depth than crappy pitchers like some that we have signed.

[a700hitter]

Yes' date=' this is true, but you can have a decent/solid depth as well. As I said,[b'] I prefer young proved AAA kids as depth[/b] than crappy pitchers like some that we have signed.

^ This should be the strategy.

[FredLynn]

Yes' date=' this is true, but you can have a decent/solid depth as well. As I said, I prefer young proved AAA kids as depth than crappy pitchers like some that we have signed.[/quote']

 

Thats another problem Epstein left us with: the lack of ML ready or near ready ML pitchers. We have none. The Rays seems to have them in layers.

This is just the way it is. Our depth stinks. Its more like warm bodies set up as canon fodder. So if we hope to compete for a ring this year we had better have a great starting five and hope they stay healthy.

[iortiz]

I was talking specifically about depth brought from Free Agency.

 

However, think about this: Why would Saunders take a "depth" position when he has two-year offers standing to be a member of a starting rotation?

 

You know why that is? Because Free Agent pitchers who are good enough to crack a team's opening Day Starting Rotation will pitch for team's Opening Day Starting Rotations.

 

I got your point.

[User Name]

I got your point.

 

I see your point as well though.

 

We do have "some" AA-AAA depth. But it's never a certainty. So you create cheap veteran competition.

[iortiz]

Thats another problem Epstein left us with: the lack of ML ready or near ready ML pitchers. We have none. The Rays seems to have them in layers.

This is just the way it is. Our depth stinks. Its more like warm bodies set up as canon fodder. So if we hope to compete for a ring this year we had better have a great starting five and hope they stay healthy.

 

We should take a look at the Rays farm. I'm not sure how much Friedman has been involved in their farm (I guess a lot), If true and as I said, he could have been a great option as a GM in Boston.

[User Name]

We should take a look at the Rays farm. I'm not sure how much Friedman has been involved in their farm (I guess a lot)' date=' If true and as I said, he could have been a great option as a GM in Boston.[/quote']

 

Friedman has stockpiled all of that pitching talent through years of high drafting positions while being the worst team in the Majors. It wasn't an issue of superior drafting strategy.

[iortiz]

Friedman has stockpiled all of that pitching talent through years of high drafting positions while being the worst team in the Majors. It wasn't an issue of superior drafting strategy.

 

I think that is a combination of drafting and development. Seems like that stockpile will never end.

[redsoxbeatz]

I finally saw Moneyball last night. Hope the red sox are employing those strategies in finding us some good pitching depth lol obv...