MLB Hot Stove 2010

[Palodios]

My favorite quote of the highly quotable week

 

"I'm just going to leave Cliff alone to do his own thing, because I'm not offering him anything, other than friendship. 'I'll be your sidekick, Cliff.'" - CJ Wilson

[jacksonianmarch]

Find it funny that those "tweets" were leaked and some jumped on them so quickly. Lee got a guaranteed 7 year deal from the Yankees. The Rangers offered a 6 yr deal with a 7th year club option, otherwise known as a 6 yr deal (as nobody would pick up a 39 yr old's 20+ mil option. And from the sounds of it, the Rangers topped out at $20 mil per season. The Yankees offer is said to be just short of a CC deal. So, to recap....

 

The presumed Yankee offer is 7 yrs for around $158 million. The presumed Rangers offer is 6 yrs, $120 million. That is 1 year and $38 million short. Plus, you have to factor in marketing opps, as one of the estimates I read had Lee making $2+ mil more per year in endorsements as well. So factor that in, and the deal from the Yankees could be worth $52 million more over the length of the contract. Plus, if Lee signs in Texas, he would be the albatross contract that makes the team not be able to go after other valuable FAs (like ARod was), instead of in NY where he is virtually guaranteed to be on a contender year to year. Unless he is willing to part with over $50 million and the virtual guarantee of postseason baseball over 7 years, then he either hates NY or is an idiot. And from the sounds of it, he doesnt hate NY

[italstallianion]

Find it funny that those "tweets" were leaked and some jumped on them so quickly. Lee got a guaranteed 7 year deal from the Yankees. The Rangers offered a 6 yr deal with a 7th year club option, otherwise known as a 6 yr deal (as nobody would pick up a 39 yr old's 20+ mil option. And from the sounds of it, the Rangers topped out at $20 mil per season. The Yankees offer is said to be just short of a CC deal. So, to recap....

 

The presumed Yankee offer is 7 yrs for around $158 million. The presumed Rangers offer is 6 yrs, $120 million. That is 1 year and $38 million short. Plus, you have to factor in marketing opps, as one of the estimates I read had Lee making $2+ mil more per year in endorsements as well. So factor that in, and the deal from the Yankees could be worth $52 million more over the length of the contract. Plus, if Lee signs in Texas, he would be the albatross contract that makes the team not be able to go after other valuable FAs (like ARod was), instead of in NY where he is virtually guaranteed to be on a contender year to year. Unless he is willing to part with over $50 million and the virtual guarantee of postseason baseball over 7 years, then he either hates NY or is an idiot. And from the sounds of it, he doesnt hate NY

 

 

 

Either that or his wife wears the pants in the relationship and he listens to everything she says. Kind of sounds like how another superstar got in NY in the first place...

[Cocos Disciples]

Interesting thoughts from Kevin Goldstein of BP:

 

During my four days in Orlando, it was hard to spend more than five minutes in the media room, lobby, or any of the hotel-based eateries without hearing the name Cliff Lee, often coupled with “Rangers,”, “Yankees,” or my favorite phrase of the winter rumors, “mystery team.” Now 48 hours removed and under the threat of a winter storm warning, Lee still hasn't signed, and the offers continue to ascend towards the heavens, with five years becoming six, six becoming seven, and dollars remaining at well over $20 million per annum.

 

Meanwhile, we continue to wait, with Rangers fans hoping to keep the hero that led their team to their first World Series, and Yankee fans wishing to prove that their team's financial might can bring them the biggest free agent name once again. At this point, I'd recommend that both fans start rooting for the other side, as the 'winning' the Cliff Lee sweepstakes has all the makings of a classic Pyrrhic victory.

 

The age aspect of any deal is easy to see, as no matter the length, Lee will be well into the downside of his career during the latter part of the contract. The bigger risk is simply Lee himself. It's easy to forget that this is a pitcher just three years removed from pitching his way back to the minor leagues, with the Guardians trading him away as much of over the risk of him declining as to his potential price tag.

 

And there is simply Lee the pitcher. Even the great version of Lee is succeeding mostly on nearly super-natural command. While his pure stuff is far too good to be classified solely as a finesse arm, it's hardly the arsenal of a power pitcher, and to be the Cy Young-level pitcher, he can afford no degradation in his ability to not only throw strikes, but to place his pitches nearly perfectly in the zone. When that's not happening, Lee falls from elite to very hittable, with game one of last year's World Series serving as our most recent exhibit. The chances of Lee being the pitcher he's been over the last few seasons two years from now are slim, four years from now, tiny, and six years from now? Unfathomable.

 

It's turned into an ugly game of chicken, with Lee's agent Darek Braunecker watching with delight as both teams accelerate towards each other with little care for self-damage. The Yankees can certainly afford the mistake more than Texas, but at this point, either team swerving, even if in a simple act of self-preservation, is making the smarter move.

 

Thoughts? I think it's true of almost every big contract that in the back half, the player is not worth it. But that's usually the only way to get the talent in the front half.

[Spudboy]

Memo to the Sox F.O. :

 

Sign Darnell McDonald.

[Cocos Disciples]

Memo to the Sox F.O. :

 

Sign Darnell McDonald.

He's still arbitration eligible, but I don't see the need. Cameron is the 4th outfielder and Kalish is readily available in AAA.

[a700hitter]

Memo to the Sox F.O. :

 

Sign Darnell McDonald.

You think so small.

[Palodios]

Memo to the Sox F.O. :

 

Sign Darnell McDonald.

 

hmm...

 

 

They've got their franchise player! I just wish the Red Sox could get one of these elite' date=' yearly mvp-contender guys.[/quote']

x3

[Spudboy]

He's still arbitration eligible' date=' but I don't see the need. Cameron is the 4th outfielder and Kalish is readily available in AAA.[/quote']

 

You think so small.

 

hmm...

 

 

 

x3

 

I guess some TS members have a memory of convenience.

 

And maybe you'd rather spend 2/11-12 on a NL catcher that puts up lesser numbers when you could have a cheap RHH that has a favorable split against LHP and has already played in the AL? A guy that plays 3 OF position more than competently.

 

A guy that does not make errors , throws well and can run?

 

Maybe you are all Ivy League Business grads? It's just sound business to round off the roster with a guy like Darnell.

[a700hitter]

I guess some TS members have a memory of convenience.

 

And maybe you'd rather spend 2/11-12 on a NL catcher that puts up lesser numbers when you could have a cheap RHH that has a favorable split against LHP and has already played in the AL? A guy that plays 3 OF position more than competently.

 

A guy that does not make errors , throws well and can run?

 

Maybe you are all Ivy League Business grads? It's just sound business to round off the roster with a guy like Darnell.

He's not a bad guy to fill out the roster. He does hit lefties well, and we are a bit too left-handed. Darnell will be available for a while. I was just joking with you, because my daily memos to the FO were about Carl Crawford, not the th OFer.

[Cocos Disciples]

It's not a question of Martin vs. McDonald. Martin would be the starting catcher, McDonald would be a backup outfielder.

[Spudboy]

It's not a question of Martin vs. McDonald. Martin would be the starting catcher' date=' McDonald would be a backup outfielder.[/quote']

 

I beg to differ!

 

If one takes the stance that Salty is unproven (which he appears to be) and that Tek is not capable of playing 80 or more games (not known) then signing a catcher who has done nothing since 2008 and has never hit AL pitchers may seem a reasonable move to round out the roster.

 

I'd prefer to have a RHH that plays three OF spots that is proven in this environment. Particularly when Ellsbury's posterior ribs remain in question and Cameron is (38-39 y.o.) coming off abdominal surgery.

 

Moreover, Danrnell will likely sign at about 3-4 mil less/yr.

 

That money can be used to build the pen. Just a though!

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I beg to differ!

 

If one takes the stance that Salty is unproven (which he appears to be) and that Tek is not capable of playing 80 or more games (not known) then signing a catcher who has done nothing since 2008 and has never hit AL pitchers may seem a reasonable move to round out the roster.

 

I'd prefer to have a RHH that plays three OF spots that is proven in this environment. Particularly when Ellsbury's posterior ribs remain in question and Cameron is (38-39 y.o.) is coming off abdominal surgery.

 

Moreover, Danrnell will likely sign at about 3-4 mil less/yr.

 

That money can be used to build the pen. Just a though!

 

This makes a lot of sense. Good post Spud.

[SoxSport]

What I'm seeing off the twitter boards (Heyman et al) is Lee is going to Philly. He just might prefer the NL, having been there in Philly. Easier on pitchers with no DH. The money has reached a point where it probably isn't a major factor. I think the years are overrated, too. At $20 mil a year, who wants to work for 7 years?

The other factor could be Halliday. He just may want to pitch alongside Halliday, and was willing to accept an extension there. Now why didn't they do it? Those 10 owners they have didn't want to pay.Maybe losing Werth loosened them up.

 

The other thing I'm hearing (from MLB.com) is the Yankees may get Martin. Could be the Sox aren't willing to commit as much PT as Salty. Seems like Martin is a bit risky for the money he will get. They like his bat, but hitting is no longer important in the Boston lineup. Having a good defensive catcher is the priority.

 

The Yankees are in a lot of trouble if they don't get Lee. All those graybeards they have hooked long term are bound to start slipping soon.Maybe Jeter has started.

[italstallianion]

What I'm seeing off the twitter boards (Heyman et al) is Lee is going to Philly. He just might prefer the NL' date=' having been there in Philly. Easier on pitchers with no DH. The money has reached a point where it probably isn't a major factor. I think the years are overrated, too. [b']At $20 mil a year, who wants to work for 7 years? [/b]The other factor could be Halliday. He just may want to pitch alongside Halliday, and was willing to accept an extension there. Now why didn't they do it?

 

 

 

Almost everyone in the country.

[redsoxrules]

count me in

[SoxSport]

Re McDonald, a lot of people would like to see him back as a backup OF and platoon player. He has a high OPS against lefties and plays good OF, Excellent bench player who gave Tito a few key hits last year. Tito doesn't forget.

[SoxSport]

Almost everyone in the country.

 

Don't think so. Not with $100 mil in the bank, and your 36 yo arm falling off.

[italstallianion]

At that point I'd lob the ball or pitch right handed. If I was still getting $20 million per year I wouldn't stop pitching until I got released. And I doubt that Lee declines like you'd say when he's 36 considering that he's a finesse pitcher, not a power pitcher. I mean if Moyer can make it past 46, then I think that Lee can make it past 36.

[Keeper]

Really hope Lee doesn't end up with the Phillies. A rotation of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels would simply be unfair to the rest of the league.

[Palodios]

Tell that to San Francisco.

[Keeper]

The Giants obviously have a deep rotation, but Lincecum and Cain are the only starters they have I would be afraid of. I think Sanchez is overrated and Bumgarner is still developing.

 

The Phillies have a much better offense than San Fran. If they get Lee, they're a lock to get to the WS and probably the favorites to win it.

[Palodios]

They had 3 starters with ERAs of 3.14 or under... and then Lincecum had an offseason with 3.43. That's a brutal group to hit.

[SoxSport]

Don't think so. Not with $100 mil in the bank' date=' and your 36 yo arm falling off.[/quote']

 

Did I nail this one--or what? He signs for 5 years/$100 mil. Lee is no dummy.

[CanadianSox]

Overbay signs with the Pirates for 1 year.

Matt Stairs signed a minor league contract with the Nats.

Dodgers sign catcher Navarro for 1 year.

[Keeper]

Hideki Matsui 1 year $4.25 million with Oakland.

[a700hitter]

A's To Acquire Josh Willingham

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 16 at 12:21pm CST]

 

The A's and Nationals have agreed to a deal that will send Josh Willingham to Oakland, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). The Nationals will acquire two young players, one of whom has major league experience, according to Olney. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter) that the teams are now exchanging medical information.

 

The A's will now feature Willingham, Coco Crisp and David DeJesus in their outfield with Ryan Sweeney and Conor Jackson available off the bench. Willingham, DeJesus and Hideki Matsui should provide the A's offense with some extra thump. Oakland ranked 11th in the American League in runs scored and 13th in the league in home runs in 2010.

 

Willingham earned $4.6MM in 2010 and will go to arbitration one last time this winter before hitting free agency after the 2011 season. The 31-year-old batted .268/.389/.459 in 450 plate appearances last year before he went on the disabled list and underwent left knee surgery.

 

Though Willingham is less than a year away from free agency, he would be open to an extension with the A's, according to Rosenthal (on Twitter).

 

Rosenthal first reported that the sides were in serious discussions about a deal. He suggests the Nationals could use their savings to pursue a starter, a first baseman or a reliever.

[italstallianion]

Another one bites the dust.

[BSN07]

Wow, Oakland really looks to be trying to load up.

[Cocos Disciples]

Good move. They've added three very good hitters this offseason to their lineup in Matsui, DeJesus and Willingham. It's not a great lineup, but it'll get on base a ton, and they already have one of the best rotations in the league. They're a contender. If they can swap out Kouzmanoff for a real, productive 3B, even better.