MLB Hot Stove 2010

[jacksonianmarch]

The A's are going to be very interesting this yr. With their solid pitching and improved offense, they should challenge the Rangers, who took a massive hit while losing out on Lee, and the Angels, who havent done much to improve on a poor 2010 performance.

[Keeper]

Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka for 3 years, $15 million.

 

Nationals re-signed Chien-Ming Wang for 1 year, $1 million.

[Palodios]

1 million for Wang? I'd pay him 2 million just to have him work as Francona's barber.

[Keeper]

I should have also said he can earn up to $6 million with incentives. But yeah, pretty cheap, especially when you consider how much some relievers are getting paid right now.

[Divinity]

Kerry Wood agreed to a 1.5 mill guaranteed deal with the Cubs, Yanks were willling to bid 10mill / 2 years if he was interested, what a steal.

[CanadianSox]

Rick Ankiel to the Nats.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5939202

WASHINGTON -- Outfielder Rick Ankiel and the Washington Nationals have agreed to a $1.5 million, one-year contract.

 

The deal announced Monday includes $1.25 million in performance bonuses: $200,000 each for 100, 150, 200, 250 and 300 plate appearances, and $250,000 for 375.

 

The outfielder, who finished last season with the Atlanta Braves, will reportedly have a chance to compete with Roger Bernadina for the left field job after Josh Willingham was traded to the Oakland Athletics last week.

 

The 31-year-old left-handed hitter batted .232 with six homers and 24 RBIs this year with Kansas City and Atlanta.

 

His best season came in 2008, when he hit 25 homers and batted .264 with St. Louis.

 

The former pitcher is a career .248 hitter with 55 home runs and 181 RBIs.

[italstallianion]

I'm not sure what the best thread for this is, but to clear up some confusion about Dan Wheeler, in his contract it states that if Dan Wheeler retains his Type A free agent status, then we cannot offer him arbitration.

 

However, if he falls to a Type B free agent, we can offer him arbitration and he has to decline it. So at worst, we should be able to recover a decent draft pick if this signing doesn't work out, and we didn't sign him for much anyway, so we have very little to lose. Not to mention the fact that with Crawford and Ellsbury in the OF, a lot of the flyballs that Wheeler gives up should turn into outs.

[Palodios]

That sounds like a great clause for a reliever to have in his contract. Normally arbitration is meant to protect teams from losing players to free agency, but in the case of relief pitches it can hurt their career and hit their pockets.

[italstallianion]

The same thing happened to us with Saito. He was a type A but we couldn't offer him arbitration due to his contract and pick up the draft picks, which in all fairness, would have been a 2nd rounder and a supplemental from the Braves anyway. (Since we got their first rounder for signing Wagner)

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not sure what the best thread for this is, but to clear up some confusion about Dan Wheeler, in his contract it states that if Dan Wheeler retains his Type A free agent status, then we cannot offer him arbitration.

 

However, if he falls to a Type B free agent, we can offer him arbitration and he has to decline it. So at worst, we should be able to recover a decent draft pick if this signing doesn't work out, and we didn't sign him for much anyway, so we have very little to lose. Not to mention the fact that with Crawford and Ellsbury in the OF, a lot of the flyballs that Wheeler gives up should turn into outs.

 

Dear God, I hope our bullpen is better this year. It really can't get much worse than it was. Now, given I knew our bullpen was horrendous last year, and getting it fixed always was our number 1 priority, but today I was looking at a stat that showed just how much our bullpen cost us.

 

Check this out. This is nuts.

 

Red Sox bullpen - 4.24 ERA, 23 Losses.

Yankees pen - 3.47 ERA, 17 Losses.

Rays pen - 3.33 ERA, 16 Losses

 

So, our bullpen lost 6 games more than the Yanks, 7 games more than the Rays.

 

How many games were we back on the Rays and the Yankees in 2010?

 

6 games back on the Yankees, 7 games back on the Rays.

 

Unreal.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Please don't remind me about last years bullpen.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Please don't remind me about last years bullpen.

 

Well at least we got rid of the usual suspects. Oh wait. Papelbon is back. Can't beat having a closer with as many or more losses than 3 of your 5 starting pitchers!

 

Papelbon - 7 losses

 

DiceK - 6 Losses

Beckett - 6 Losses

Buchholz - 7 Losses

 

Oh, and Pap - you can thank Pedroia for bailing you out of back to back losses in Colorado too. Somehow he got the W that night. Ridiculous.

[italstallianion]

Well at least we got rid of the usual suspects. Oh wait. Papelbon is back. Can't beat having a closer with as many or more losses than 3 of your 5 starting pitchers!

 

Papelbon - 7 losses

 

DiceK - 6 Losses

Beckett - 6 Losses

Buchholz - 7 Losses

 

Oh, and Pap - you can thank Pedroia for bailing you out of back to back losses in Colorado too. Somehow he got the W that night. Ridiculous.

 

 

 

I'm not going to defend Papelbon's season last year, but there's a big difference between losses that a closer faces and losses that a starter faces. Closers enter the game when their team is ahead by a few runs, so the only realistic way for them to get a win is for them to blow the lead, and have their offense give them the win. In addition, since they are closers, they enter the game at the end, which unlike starters, doesn't really give the offense time to recover in the event that the closer has trouble.

 

I'm not saying Papelbon did well, but losses on a closer are misleading since they enter the game with a short lead late in the game.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not going to defend Papelbon's season last year' date=' but there's a big difference between losses that a closer faces and losses that a starter faces. Closers enter the game when their team is ahead by a few runs, so the only realistic way for them to get a win is for them to blow the lead, and have their offense give them the win. [b']In addition, since they are closers, they enter the game at the end, which unlike starters, doesn't really give the offense time to recover in the event that the closer has trouble. [/b]

 

I'm not saying Papelbon did well, but losses on a closer are misleading since they enter the game with a short lead late in the game.

 

That's what I'm saying. Papelbon ran into trouble far too often for a closer. Far, far too often.

 

Of all relief pitchers with at least 20 saves last year (29 pitchers), Papelbon was tied for 1st with Francisco Cordero with 8 Blown Saves, he had the 5th worst ERA, and he had the most losses.

 

He blew 8 saves and converted 37, so he had a 82.23% conversion rate. That's right at the bottom next to Leo Nunez of the qualified closers by the parameters set above (20 saves or more).

 

I know you're not defending him at all, but the guy was just absolutely awful last year, and I really think people who are thinking he's going to bounce back this year just because it's his contract year don't have too much to lean on.

 

I'm pretty sure Teixera and A-Rod aren't going to care that it's his contract year when they're up in the bottom of the 9th in a 1 run game.

 

By the way, more 2010 stats to make you worry

 

Pap vs BAL - 5.19 ERA

Pap vs NYY - 6.97 ERA

Pap vs TOR - 4.26 ERA

 

I mean....that's our division right there outside of TB. That's who you have to be good against.

 

Papelbon? :thumbdown

[BornToRun]

On the subject of Papelbon, it's pretty obvious that he isn't what he used to be. Back in 2006 you had the flamethrowing kid with the deathstare that came out of nowhere and blew people away with a blazing heater and a nice splitter. Now he just throws fastball after fastball and he keeps getting hit.

 

Every time I see Jon trot out onto the mound, I'm holding my breath. Good closers shouldn't make you do that. When Pap pitches I feel that the chances of a 3 run inning and a tie ballgame is just as likely as a strikeout.

 

Last year he had an ERA near 4, he blew 8 saves, had his highest WHIP since his first season as the closer, and he also gave up a career high 7 homes runs.

 

He either needs to get his s*** together or we need to look for other solutions at the closing spot. Jonathan Papelbon wasn't Jonathan Papelbon last year.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

On the subject of Papelbon' date=' it's pretty obvious that he isn't what he used to be. Back in 2006 you had the flamethrowing kid with the deathstare that came out of nowhere and blew people away with a blazing heater and a nice splitter. [b']Now he just throws fastball after fastball and he keeps getting hit[/b].

 

Every time I see Jon trot out onto the mound, I'm holding my breath. Good closers shouldn't make you do that. When Pap pitches I feel that the chances of a 3 run inning and a tie ballgame is just as likely as a strikeout.

 

Last year he had an ERA near 4, he blew 8 saves, had his highest WHIP since his first season as the closer, and he also gave up a career high 7 homes runs.

 

He either needs to get his s*** together or we need to look for other solutions at the closing spot. Jonathan Papelbon wasn't Jonathan Papelbon last year.

 

Exactly.

[Palodios]

You know, Papelbon wouldn't be getting s*** like this if he hadn't compared himself to Rivera, and boasted about how many millions he can squeeze out of this team. I have no problem with an arrogant prick who performs (see: Manny Ramirez) but an arrogant prick who can't do what he's being paid monster money to do? I have no sympathy for him when the team drops him, and he's a set-up man in Pittsburgh in 2012.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You know' date=' Papelbon wouldn't be getting s*** like this if he hadn't compared himself to Rivera, and boasted about how many millions he can squeeze out of this team. I have no problem with an arrogant prick who performs (see: Manny Ramirez) but an arrogant prick who can't do what he's being paid monster money to do? I have no sympathy for him when the team drops him, and he's a set-up man in Pittsburgh in 2012.[/quote']

 

Yeah. Fangraphs just came out with a new metric for him. It's the Arrogance to Talent Ratio (ATR), and Papelbon leads the league at 45:2.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Yeah. Fangraphs just came out with a new metric for him. It's the Arrogance to Talent Ratio (ATR)' date=' and Papelbon leads the league at 45:2.[/quote']

 

[Dipre]

On the subject of Papelbon, it's pretty obvious that he isn't what he used to be. Back in 2006 you had the flamethrowing kid with the deathstare that came out of nowhere and blew people away with a blazing heater and a nice splitter. Now he just throws fastball after fastball and he keeps getting hit.

Every time I see Jon trot out onto the mound, I'm holding my breath. Good closers shouldn't make you do that. When Pap pitches I feel that the chances of a 3 run inning and a tie ballgame is just as likely as a strikeout.

 

Last year he had an ERA near 4, he blew 8 saves, had his highest WHIP since his first season as the closer, and he also gave up a career high 7 homes runs.

 

He either needs to get his s*** together or we need to look for other solutions at the closing spot. Jonathan Papelbon wasn't Jonathan Papelbon last year.

 

To the bolded part: That is absolutely untrue. Papelbon threw the lowest percentage of fastballs (69.5) highest percentage of sliders (9.3%) and highest percentage of splitters (21.2) of his career (whatever remains between the actual percentage and 100% were pitches unidentified by pitchFx)

 

The true problem isn't over-reliance on the fastball like everyone seems to assume, but a combination of the fact that his fastball simply isn't as effective as it used to be (i've read in different places that his four-seamer lacks movement, and his two-seamer lacks control and runs right into lefties' wheelhouse) and hitters laying off the split, which, according to scouting reports, never touches the strike-zone.

 

Hitters have adjusted, can Papelbon do the same?

 

 

To the rest of the post, absolutely agree.

[BornToRun]

Fair enough point, I see what you mean. The bottom line is that he better get his act together or there's a different guy trotting out of the right field bullpen in 2012

[Dipre]

Fair enough point' date=' I see what you mean. The bottom line is that he better get his act together or there's a different guy trotting out of the right field bullpen in 2012[/quote']

 

Holy s***, someone who takes a post stating an analysis of a player for what it is and not an insult to their manhood over the internet!!

 

Welcome, welcome, please stick around!

[BornToRun]

Haha, can do.

[EXman369]

Nice another new active member

[SoxFanForsyth]

Looking deeper into Papelbons numbers, in 2006 and 2007, when he was at his prime, his BABIP was .239 and .237, both extremely low. Since then, his BABIP has come up to normal levels, (around the .290-.310 range for those 3 years), and as that came up, his ERA obviously rose and his blown saves and losses rose as well.

 

So, I guess my question is this. Was Papelbon ever really that good? Or were we all just predisposed to an unlikely chain of events which allowed him to have such a low BABIP for his first two years, thus creating unrealistic expectations?

 

From the stats that I've been looking at tonight, I think that Papelbon may be, as a career player, closer to the 2008-2010 Papelbon than the 2006-2007 Papelbon, and the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear that if we truly expect him to revert back to 2007 form, we're really just rooting for him to have a lucky season.

[Divinity]

In Papelbon's mind, he's better then Mariano Rivera.

 

http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2009/05/22/gal_hated_papelbon.jpg

[italstallianion]

In Papelbon's mind, he's better then Mariano Rivera.

 

http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2009/05/22/gal_hated_papelbon.jpg

 

 

I wouldn't go that far. I remember that exact situation, and what happened was that Papelbon was asked if he wanted to close the All Star game (despite it being in NY) and he said that as a closer he always wanted the ball in the end. He never said that he was the best closer or better than Mariano Rivera. The NY Daily News, which is commonly does, exaggerated a story and ran with it. I'll give it brownie points on a nice title though.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Nice title? Papelbum isn't even that good.

[italstallianion]

For an on the spot criticism I thought it was ok. Besides, considering that we're talking about the NY Daily News, it's gotta be better than average.

[Divinity]

I wouldn't go that far. I remember that exact situation' date=' and what happened was that Papelbon was asked if he wanted to close the All Star game (despite it being in NY) and he said that as a closer he always wanted the ball in the end. He never said that he was the best closer or better than Mariano Rivera. The NY Daily News, which is commonly does, exaggerated a story and ran with it. I'll give it brownie points on a nice title though.[/quote']

 

Ah, I wasn't aware of that, I take my previous statement back then.