The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[italstallianion]

I just thought of something positive about the Werth signing. I think it pretty much guarantees that we get the Tigers first round pick for Vmart.

[a700hitter]

I just thought of something positive about the Werth signing. I think it pretty much guarantees that we get the Tigers first round pick for Vmart.

You have become such a level headed optimist. Who are you??

[italstallianion]

A guy with a girlfriend who puts out.

[a700hitter]

A guy with a girlfriend who puts out.

I'll have to convince my wife to start putting out again.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I'll have to convince my wife to start putting out again.

 

Shouldn't be too hard. I convinced her.

 

 

ZING!

[Palodios]

A guy with a girlfriend who puts out.

 

Is girlfriend another word for "A-gon blow-up doll" ? The girl I'm dating got jealous of mine this weekend.

[italstallianion]

Is girlfriend another word for "A-gon blow-up doll" ? The girl I'm dating got jealous of mine this weekend.

 

 

I still haven't worn out my Erin Andrews dolls yet, so I won't order a Gonzalez one until that time.

[italstallianion]

Shouldn't be too hard. I convinced her.

 

 

ZING!

 

 

I didn't know that you liked cougars.

[a700hitter]

Shouldn't be too hard. I convinced her.

 

 

ZING!

I didn't say that I want her to put out for me. I just want to get her out of the house more often.

[a700hitter]

The hot stove was scalding

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff December 5, 2010 11:40 PM

 

The blog posts on Extra Bases today drew just about 1,000 comments. The Adrian Gonzalez saga really had fans excited as they ran the gamut of emotions.

 

Thanks to everybody for reading. We really appreciate it.

 

That looks like it for tonight. Nick and I are in Orlando for the Winter Meetings and will have plenty of coverage all week in the paper and on the blog. Plus we'll have coverage from Boston from Fenway when Adrian Gonzalez is introduced. So hang with us.

[SCM33]

we were close 1000 here most likely!

 

EDIT: from 0700 Sunday til now, there were more than 700 posts in this thread.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I didn't know that you liked cougars.

 

I haven't been with many women that could be called cougars (Actually, only one. Technically maybe two but I'm not sure of the exact definition). Everyone likes cougars.

 

Right, VA?

[Youk Of The Nation]

I didn't say that I want her to put out for me. I just want to get her out of the house more often.

 

[Cocos Disciples]

I just thought of something positive about the Werth signing. I think it pretty much guarantees that we get the Tigers first round pick for Vmart.

Also, while I wanted Werth, I wouldn't be thrilled if the Sox signed him to that deal. That's too many years and too much money for someone who really has only had 3 full seasons in the league. I wanted the Sox to sign him, but that deal makes me feel better about it not happening.

[example1]

we were close 1000 here most likely!

 

EDIT: from 0700 Sunday til now, there were more than 700 posts in this thread.

 

I've been off enjoying life the past few hours and haven't read, or commented on, most of the past few pages after a crazy last few days. Will get to those in a moment. I just wanted to officially praise the main group of posters here for this initial stage of the Hot Stove season. I have seen more regular postings of links and stories than I did in years past, and as a 5+ year member I feel like there's an active and alert presence among some of our members that really helps keep everything current in ways that weren't true in the past. I used to go to other sites exclusively in search of recent news. Throughout these past few days I get it here almost as quickly as anywhere else, and whatever is missing is easily found.

 

The bickering and stupid arguments seem to be replaced by genuine disagreements about how a team should be won, a business should be run, or money should be spent. That's a medium that warrants further analysis and discussion. Personal attacks are pointless in general, but they are especially so in this online forum.

 

Anyway, I appreciate it and encourage on-going discussion and appreciate the general balance of posteres here. thanks.

 

E1

[Dipre]

Holy s***, it just hit me again that we have A-Gon and GoBruins was banned.

 

Excellent excellent day.

[Emmz]

I'll have to convince my wife to start putting out again.

 

She can't put out if you don't put up. OHHHHH!!!!

[example1]

You lose...

 

Victor Martinez....302/.351/.493 .844OPS

Adrian Beltre........321/.365/.553 .919OPS

 

You add back in...

 

About 2 months of Kevin Youkilis, who was on pace for a career high OPS at .975

About 3 months of Dustin Pedroia, who was on pace for close to a career high OPS of .860

Presumably, a full season out of Jacoby Ellsbury

Presumably, a full season out of an aging Mike Cameron

 

Then, you add in Adrian Gonzalez, who had a .298/.393/.511 line, which essentially replaces Beltre. The question is, whether the crew above plus Salty starting is enough to offset the prime production of Martinez. It also entails that the sox players above return to prime production and stay healthy, which is far from a guarantee.

 

This discussion must not be had without reference to something that is more important to the game. How do I compare a .298/.393/.511 (Gonzalez) season to a .321/.365/.553 .919OPS (Beltre), if they played different positions, hit in different spots in different divisions of different leagues in entirely different parks against entirely different pitchers? You know better than this...

 

Those numbers can give you a good idea of the overall skills of the player, but none of those other factors can be accounted for. Furthermore, to account for those factors many metrics have been created to encapsulate the totality of potential influences. There are different metrics, but comparing the players values within those metrics in terms of Wins Above Replacement (fangraphs or B-R) or Win Shares (James) or Runs Created (James) or Value Over Replacement (Prospectus) offers a much better way of summarizing.

 

You can have an objective scale on which to compare those guys, or just a bunch of non-interrelated numbers.

 

I don't know how the WAR works out, for instance, on the situation you listed. Would be interested if you looked it up, what it would say.

 

I think you also need to add a full year of a healthy Jed Lowrie (his minor league success and 2010 success make me optimistic), bounce back seasons from Beckett and/or Lackey, and a better bullpen to look at the equation fully.

 

So we lose VMart and Beltre and get one big bat (AGon) to replace those two bats.

 

See above post in terms of other things that can change positively. Not-losing VMart or Beltre probably would have meant spending more than they are worth; that's unacceptable for players like those.

 

Also' date=' while I wanted Werth, I wouldn't be thrilled if the Sox signed him to that deal. That's too many years and too much money for someone who really has only had 3 full seasons in the league. I wanted the Sox to sign him, but that deal makes me feel better about it not happening.[/quote']

 

Exactly. As soon as I saw the parameters I backed off my love for Werth. He can have fun in DC for the next few years, the Sox shouldn't have touched that.

 

One nice thing is that the Nationals have been pesky participants in FA negotiations the past few years. I think they actively helped to drive up the price on Teixeira, thus making the Sox waiver and opening the door for the Yankees to come in. Now, with Werth as their guy, perhaps they won't be waving dollar-bills at FAs to get them into Washington DC anymore.

[example1]

The Red Sox really wanted Gonzalez and Werth, and Rizzo knew that. So he overpaid to get the prime free agent to a building franchise. Typing into a computer doesn't get that.

 

--Gammons article

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101205&content_id=16259330&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

Two things:

1) The Sox were playing ideally for Werth + Gonzalez

2) The Sox found it very inefficient to sign Gonzalez now, rather than when the AAV was in their favor, after spring training. Had to get agreement to principle aspects of the deal, which apparently got difficult and complicated.

3) Jayson Werth signing apparently motivated Sox to get Gonzalez done.

4) In other words, by losing him, Jayson Werth being removed from the Sox market may have meant they got Adrian Gonzalez instead

 

If they "only" get Gonzalez, rather than "only" getting Werth then I'm happy. I had visions of both but that may have been unrealistic anyway. They may still make a run at Crawford, but that strikes me as a really dangerous situation.

 

Here's how I see Crawford playing out, after such a dramatic day--I imagine I'll be wrong. He will feel pretty emboldened as a FA now. Common knowledge was that he was going to get the biggest contract, aside possibly from Cliff Lee, of the entire FA class. Now Werth signs not just for 18m, but for 7 years. Crawford will likely want more years and money than Werth.

 

At the same time, the Nationals made this move because it apparently costs much more for players to agree to play for the Nationals. Crawford is unlikely to find another team that is going to intentionaly spend more money than he is worth just to prove a point... except possibly the Yankees. Maybe the Angels.

 

Will other teams just stand firm at pretty substantial contracts, like what Werth just got? Why should Crawford get paid $20m? His numbers simply don't back it up, even when his very good defense is taken into account. I just don't see a 7 year, $20+m deal out there for Crawford, but will he hold out for one?

 

If so, that's when the Yankees struck with Teixeira and I could see it again with Crawford. If teams stick at, say, 7 years, $18.5m (just more than Werth) the Yankees wouldn't think twice about jumping in at 7 years $19.5m or $20.5m or $21.5m and landing him. They can just sit back, see where the market settles, and swoop in at the last minute. No problem.

 

Of course I recognize that when the Sox are the only major team competing for a player they can also just wait and pick. The Yankees can just do it with any player they want against any other team. It's ruthless.

[BSN07]

The Nationals added one huge piece to their outfield today, but could subtract another key contributor before Opening Day.

 

He could work in LF for this season IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

This discussion must not be had without reference to something that is more important to the game. How do I compare a .298/.393/.511 (Gonzalez) season to a .321/.365/.553 .919OPS (Beltre), if they played different positions, hit in different spots in different divisions of different leagues in entirely different parks against entirely different pitchers? You know better than this...

 

Those numbers can give you a good idea of the overall skills of the player, but none of those other factors can be accounted for. Furthermore, to account for those factors many metrics have been created to encapsulate the totality of potential influences. There are different metrics, but comparing the players values within those metrics in terms of Wins Above Replacement (fangraphs or B-R) or Win Shares (James) or Runs Created (James) or Value Over Replacement (Prospectus) offers a much better way of summarizing.

 

You can have an objective scale on which to compare those guys, or just a bunch of non-interrelated numbers.

 

I don't know how the WAR works out, for instance, on the situation you listed. Would be interested if you looked it up, what it would say.

 

I think you also need to add a full year of a healthy Jed Lowrie (his minor league success and 2010 success make me optimistic), bounce back seasons from Beckett and/or Lackey, and a better bullpen to look at the equation fully.

 

 

 

See above post in terms of other things that can change positively. Not-losing VMart or Beltre probably would have meant spending more than they are worth; that's unacceptable for players like those.

 

 

 

Exactly. As soon as I saw the parameters I backed off my love for Werth. He can have fun in DC for the next few years, the Sox shouldn't have touched that.

 

One nice thing is that the Nationals have been pesky participants in FA negotiations the past few years. I think they actively helped to drive up the price on Teixeira, thus making the Sox waiver and opening the door for the Yankees to come in. Now, with Werth as their guy, perhaps they won't be waving dollar-bills at FAs to get them into Washington DC anymore.

 

The entire premise of your post about comparing the leagues and what-have you misses my point. I am truly just looking at OPS and the fact that you are replacing one player with a .900+OPS with another one. From a pure statistics point of view, AdGon replaces Beltre and the sox hope the injured players from 2010 can replace enough of VMart's production to make the offense potent again. I think AdGon is significantly better than Beltre and is much more consistent. But, from just an offensive perspective, the two players for 2010 are a wash. Now, I dont expect Beltre to put up .920OPS' every year, while I expect Gonzalez to do so regularly. Now, if you wanted to use WAR, that takes into account defense, and Beltre had him in 2010, 6.6 to 6.3. But that isnt the premise of the argument here

[The Celtbot]

The Oakland Athletics tried to get third baseman Adrian Beltre last offseason when he rejected more money and more years from Oakland to join the Boston Red Sox, where he had a stellar season. Now this offseason, the A's are rejecting Beltre.

 

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that the Athletics "withdrew an offer to Beltre worth at least $64 million over five years" yesterday. Negotiations had been underway for weeks and there had been one face-to-face meeting with Beltre this offseason.

 

The team wanted to do the deal before the winter meetings got started today and when that didn't look like it was going to happen, the paper reports, the offer was pulled back.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/rumors/post/A-s-rescind-offer-to-Beltre-?urn=nfl-292171

 

I know I read somewhere that the FO ruled out moving Youk to left, but if Beltre can be had for cheaper than expected (personally just think A's are playing hardball) then I think it's still possible we try to resign him.

[jacksonianmarch]

where do you put him? Regardless, the Angels need an OFer and a 3B. I wouldnt be surprised if he goes out west still. Oakland is where good hitters go to die, I can see why he has used that offer to try and drum up more interest

[BSN07]

where do you put him? Regardless' date=' the Angels need an OFer and a 3B. I wouldnt be surprised if he goes out west still. Oakland is where good hitters go to die, I can see why he has used that offer to try and drum up more interest[/quote']

 

I'm thinking that the A's offer was the best offer prior to the Werth signing, and it was there best offer. But Boras being the sly dog he is knew he was going to be resetting the market with the Werth deal held off. And now because of that teams are going to have to throw a couple years and 40M+ to the deal they where offering. Putting Oakland out of the running due to price and thus them "walking away". They where probably hoping he would jump at the offer of 5 years. Which at the time was thought to be probably one of the longer deals he was going to get. But Boras proved again why he is the best agent in the business. Love him or hate him you have to give him his props. All he needed was that one desperate GM that's willing to shoot for the moon to get a player and it completely changed the landscape of the FA market lol.

[BSN07]

I still think they should get Willingham. I doubt he will cost that much and the Nats just lost a lot of leverage with the Werth signing. Considering that and what Agon just went for, Navarro may be enough to get him.

[BSN07]

One AL official opines that it raises Carl Crawford's price in a "big, big way": "He's looking at maybe eight years, $180 million now, maybe 10 years, $190 million." Here are the rest of Stark's hot stove notes

 

LOL Carl Crawford will not be in a Red Sox uniform. He might not have a job if that is what it's going to take to sign him.

 

 

a700, is he worth that?

There's good news and bad news for the Royals and Zack Greinke's trade value: with many free agent arms coming off the board already, Greinke has become more valuable in a pitching-thin market. However, according to one AL source, "Greinke has been trying to convince the Royals that it's not a great idea if he's there next year," which reduces Kansas City's leverage.

 

Any one up for trading Papelbon and Dice-K for prospects and to free up some $, and throwing a package of prospects at KC for Grienke. I know it's a bit out there. But considering his situation and the fact Theo already has pulled off one nice trade and still has plenty of chips(+what he would recieve for the previously mentioned players) it might not be too hard to pull off.

[BSN07]

Holy s***' date=' it just hit me again that we have A-Gon and [b']GoBruins was banned.

[/b]

Excellent excellent day.

 

Details please lol

[PineRider]

Good morning Talk Sox! And it *is* a good morning, huh? Anybody else exhausted a little from the drama yesterday?

 

So, a couple of questions....

 

With the winter meetings kicking off today, a huge trade in the bag, and some coin still left in the purse, what, if anything, can we expect to see this week in terms of signings?

 

Is it safe to say Crawford and (obviously) Lee are pipe dreams?

 

Will our focus now turn to stabilizing the pen?

 

Are there any bats left that you think Theo can (and will) pick up to help the 6-9 slots of the lineup?

 

I'm sure Lee will be off the table sooner than later, not that he really is on the table for the Sox, anyhow. And now that Boras/Werth completely reset the FA market, I'm thinking Crawford stays put this week with all that leverage he's amassing.

 

I am sure most of us think Theo is far from done. Wonder what he'll put on the stove this week, now that the main course has been served?

[a700hitter]

Daily Reminder to FO:

 

Get Carl Crawford!

 

You don't lose two big bats and replace it with one. Give Crawford his money and then you don't have to worry about much for a couple of years. After you lock up AGon for 8 years, you'll have the core of AGon, Youk, Pedroia, Crawford, Lester, Lackey,and Beckett all tied up on multi year deals. Iglesias or Lowrie should be ready to step in at SS in 2012. Kalish should be ready for RF in 2012. Buccholz will remain under control for a couple of more years. For 2 or 3 years you'll only have to worry about building a bullpen and getting a serviceable catcher. The team should be a beast for 2-3 years with minimal work. Do the damn deal.

[VA Sox Fan]

I haven't been with many women that could be called cougars (Actually, only one. Technically maybe two but I'm not sure of the exact definition). Everyone likes cougars.

 

Right, VA?

 

Right:lol: