Unofficial Adrian Gonzalez thread.

[ORS]

If we are going to look at things with the clear vision of hindsight, there were a few other, bigger, things that went wrong in 2006 to preclude them from making the postseason. Specifically, Beckett thinking he could throw his fastball at all times and get away with it, Schilling being hurt, and the swath of injuries to the starting 9 (Crisp, Ortiz, Manny, Varitek, Nixon). Having Arroyo back doesn't change that, IMO. I'd say 2007 went fine without him. I'm skeptical he makes the team in 2008.

 

So, they spent his value on someone who didn't pan out. It happens. They've wasted suitcases of money on Lugo and Lowell (the extension). It happens.

[Emmz]

Barry Zito anyone? Jason Schmidt anyone? Anyone for Vernon Wells?

[SoxSport]

Yeah--Epstein has done some incredibly bad things--but he has also done some incredibly brilliant things.

One of those brilliant things was sitting on the sidelines while the Sox traded Hanley R for Beckett and Lowell--which got them the 07 Championship. Hanley at the time wasn't even a AAA player, and there was no inkling he'd become the hitter he became with the Marlins. One of those rare players who exceeds his minor league performance in the majors. And yet, it worked out incredibly well for the Sox, even though they are still looking for a SS since Cabrera.

 

Speaking of Lowell, I'm all for sticking with the status quo and seeing how he looks in ST. The thumb looks like a minor issue, and it looks like he will still be tradeable. So that option is open. I doubt it affects their thinking on Beltre or AdGon. What's going for them is the shrinking market for Beltre, Bay and Holliday. Funny, you take the Yankees out of the picture, and the big tickets get smaller.

[Dipre]

Yeah--Epstein has done some incredibly bad things--but he has also done some incredibly brilliant things.

One of those brilliant things was sitting on the sidelines while the Sox traded Hanley R for Beckett and Lowell--which got them the 07 Championship. Hanley at the time wasn't even a AAA player, and there was no inkling he'd become the hitter he became with the Marlins. One of those rare players who exceeds his minor league performance in the majors. And yet, it worked out incredibly well for the Sox, even though they are still looking for a SS since Cabrera.

 

Speaking of Lowell, I'm all for sticking with the status quo and seeing how he looks in ST. The thumb looks like a minor issue, and it looks like he will still be tradeable. So that option is open. I doubt it affects their thinking on Beltre or AdGon. What's going for them is the shrinking market for Beltre, Bay and Holliday. Funny, you take the Yankees out of the picture, and the big tickets get smaller.

 

Specially after that ridiculous bed-s***ing by Joe Urbon (Bay's agent).

[SoxSport]

WMP was not even a AAA outfielder defensively. His problem was the contract he signed with the Yankees as a youngster which prevented him from playing in the minor leagues. Epstein got hoodwinked by those monster HRs. And the illusion he had excess starting pitching.

[SoxSport]

Specially after that ridiculous bed-s***ing by Joe Urbon (Bay's agent).

 

Bay is a big boy, and he should have followed his instincts rather than rely on his agent, who also has an eye on the size of his commission. 4/60 was plenty for his situation in Boston. Now the Sox have gone in a different direction. Holliday should take that Cardinals offer while he has it--Boras may not have the Yankees to rely on this time.

[Dipre]

WMP was not even a AAA outfielder defensively. His problem was the contract he signed with the Yankees as a youngster which prevented him from playing in the minor leagues. Epstein got hoodwinked by those monster HRs. And the illusion he had excess starting pitching.

 

If we are going to look at things with the clear vision of hindsight, there were a few other, bigger, things that went wrong in 2006 to preclude them from making the postseason. Specifically, Beckett thinking he could throw his fastball at all times and get away with it, Schilling being hurt, and the swath of injuries to the starting 9 (Crisp, Ortiz, Manny, Varitek, Nixon). Having Arroyo back doesn't change that, IMO. I'd say 2007 went fine without him. I'm skeptical he makes the team in 2008.

 

So, they spent his value on someone who didn't pan out. It happens. They've wasted suitcases of money on Lugo and Lowell (the extension). It happens.

[Imperial59]

Where do you get this number?

 

Let me guess...you got it from Cot's baseball contracts.

 

Have you noticed that the following players do not have contracts listed [2009 salary in brackets, rounded to nearest 100K]?

 

Papelbon [6.2 mil]

Kotchman [2.9 mil]

Okajima [1.75 mil club option]

Iglesies just signed 4 year, 8.25 million, so add in about 2.06 million since I don't know the details]

Delcarmen [.48 mil]

Ellsbury [.45 mil]

R. Ramirez [.44 mil]

Lowrie [.41 mil]

Buchholz [.41 mil]

R.A. Ramirez [.4 mil]

 

Just bringing back the same players at the same salary will result in a payroll increase of 15.5 million.

 

If the rumored Lowell deal goes through, and you send 9 million, you save 3.5 million. Add in Beltre for at least 10 million AAV, and what do you get?

 

22 million above the current payroll, which jumps you to 155 million. This doesn't count the 5 players who saw time last year or figure to this year, figure each one [or similar players] at 0.4 million [bard, Bowden, Brown, Doubront, M. Wagner]. That's another 2 million.

 

Now we are up to 157 million...and that doesn't take into effect any raises you might have for any of your pre-arb players.

 

Like I said, we only have 132 million committed to players right now, we really can't say what will happen in arbitration. But you adding in minor league contracts and assuming the Sox will sgn Beltre for 10 million only gets you up to 157 million. Even when you fudge the numbers, they're nowhere near the 170 million figure you claimed they'd be at.

[Dipre]

Like I said' date=' we only have 132 million committed to players right now, we really can't say what will happen in arbitration. But you adding in minor league contracts and assuming the Sox will sgn Beltre for 10 million only gets you up to 157 million. Even when you fudge the numbers, they're nowhere near the 170 million figure you claimed they'd be at.[/quote']

 

For luxury-tax related purposes, only AAV figures matter unless it's a one-year contract. Also, Lugo doesn't count towards salary cap figures, and neither will at least 9 million of Lowell's contract, most likely.

[italstallianion]

Whether one can call it crazy, faithful, or delusional, I'm still optimistic that something can be done for Adrian Gonzalez, if not now, then by the trade deadline. While I don't want to give up too much all together, or too much of our farm system vs. too much of our major league team, I think a fair balance can be achieved. I believe Theo offered 2 separate but similar packages to the Twins for Santana, and I think a similar approach here can be effective. We obviously don't want to give up both Kelly/Westmoreland because it'll rape our farm system, and we don't want to give up both Buchholz/Ellsbury because that'll make too many holes in our major league team. Similarly, we don't want to give up too much quality from the same position, so we shouldn't give up both Buchholz/Kelly or both Ellsbury/Westmoreland.

 

That leaves us with a package starting with Ellsbury/Kelly, or Buchholz/Westmoreland. I would opt for the first package because I want to keep Buchholz in our rotation, and I think that since we have 4 good OF's that Ellsbury is more replaceable than Buchholz, at least for now. My bigger reason for choosing this beginning package is because we signed Westmoreland out of high school only because he wanted to play with the Red Sox. He's from Rhode Island and had a scholarship to Vanderbilt, but chose to sign with us because he wanted to play with his favourite team. I think it would be a dick move to then trade him before he got a shot at Boston.

 

So I would start with Ellsbury and Kelly, and then add something like Bowden, Doubront and Wagner. That seems like a balance of pitching and position players, and we'd only lose Ellsbury off of our immediate major league team and while we'd lose our top prospect, the others are in the 11-20 range in our system, and with our extra draft picks we can compensate for some of the damage, not to mention we'd be adding Adrian f****** Gonzalez.

[Dipre]

Whether one can call it crazy, faithful, or delusional, I'm still optimistic that something can be done for Adrian Gonzalez, if not now, then by the trade deadline. While I don't want to give up too much all together, or too much of our farm system vs. too much of our major league team, I think a fair balance can be achieved. I believe Theo offered 2 separate but similar packages to the Twins for Santana, and I think a similar approach here can be effective. We obviously don't want to give up both Kelly/Westmoreland because it'll rape our farm system, and we don't want to give up both Buchholz/Ellsbury because that'll make too many holes in our major league team. Similarly, we don't want to give up too much quality from the same position, so we shouldn't give up both Buchholz/Kelly or both Ellsbury/Westmoreland.

 

That leaves us with a package starting with Ellsbury/Kelly, or Buchholz/Westmoreland. I would opt for the first package because I want to keep Buchholz in our rotation, and I think that since we have 4 good OF's that Ellsbury is more replaceable than Buchholz, at least for now. My bigger reason for choosing this beginning package is because we signed Westmoreland out of high school only because he wanted to play with the Red Sox. He's from Rhode Island and had a scholarship to Vanderbilt, but chose to sign with us because he wanted to play with his favourite team. I think it would be a dick move to then trade him before he got a shot at Boston.

 

So I would start with Ellsbury and Kelly, and then add something like Bowden, Doubront and Wagner. That seems like a balance of pitching and position players, and we'd only lose Ellsbury off of our immediate major league team and while we'd lose our top prospect, the others are in the 11-20 range in our system, and with our extra draft picks we can compensate for some of the damage, not to manage we'd be adding Adrian f****** Gonzalez.

 

Casey Kelly is untouchable. Right out of Theo's mouth.

[Keeper]

My bigger reason for choosing this beginning package is because we signed Westmoreland out of high school only because he wanted to play with the Red Sox. He's from Rhode Island and had a scholarship to Vanderbilt' date=' but chose to sign with us because he wanted to play with his favourite team. I think it would be a dick move to then trade him before he got a shot at Boston.[/quote']

 

I don't see how it would be a dick move at all. The GM's primary function is to try to assemble the best MLB team possible, not be sentimental over a local prospect.

 

If Theo believes that trading Westmoreland and others for AGon is the best move for this team in the short term or the long term, then he should do it. Besides, if Westmoreland were traded to the Padres, he'd likely reach MLB faster than he would with the Sox.

[Dipre]

I don't see how it would be a dick move at all. The GM's primary function is to try to assemble the best MLB team possible, not be sentimental over a local prospect.

 

If Theo believes that trading Westmoreland and others for AGon is the best move for this team in the short term or the long term, then he should do it. Besides, if Westmoreland were traded to the Padres, he'd likely reach MLB faster than he would with the Sox.

 

All points sign that if one or Kelly or Westmoreland were to be traded for A-Gon, Ryan W. would be the one contained in the package, because the Sox have stated more than once (according to sources reporting the A-Gon negotiations) that Kelly is quite simply untouchable.

[rhet]

So they are willing to trade Buchholz, who has a very high ceiling, and Ellsbury, who can hit .300 and steal 70 bases yet hasn't reached his ceiling yet, but not Casey Kelly, who pitched pretty well in A ball? What's up with that?

[Dipre]

So they are willing to trade Buchholz' date=' who has a very high ceiling, and Ellsbury, who can hit .300 and steal 70 bases yet hasn't reached his ceiling yet, but not Casey Kelly, who pitched pretty well in A ball? What's up with that?[/quote']

 

To be honest i kinda don't see it either, but there has to be something pretty special about that kid.

[rhet]

Kelly got the largest signing bonus in club history, $3.0 million. FWIW.

[Teddyballgame10]

So they are willing to trade Buchholz' date=' who has a very high ceiling, and Ellsbury, who can hit .300 and steal 70 bases yet hasn't reached his ceiling yet, but not Casey Kelly, who pitched pretty well in A ball? What's up with that?[/quote']

 

I dont get this either. I just assume they know things we dont. Kelly better be a f***ing stud.

[italstallianion]

I don't see how it would be a dick move at all. The GM's primary function is to try to assemble the best MLB team possible' date=' [b']not be sentimental over a local prospect.[/b]

If Theo believes that trading Westmoreland and others for AGon is the best move for this team in the short term or the long term, then he should do it. Besides, if Westmoreland were traded to the Padres, he'd likely reach MLB faster than he would with the Sox.

 

 

 

 

You can say that it's not the GM's job to be sentimental, but you offered nothing to suggest that it wouldn't be a "dick" move, which in all fairness, is nearly an impossible thing to prove. I understand how being a GM results in moves for the team being more important than sentimental moves, but if you have a player who signed ONLY because it was your team (otherwise he would have gone to college) and you trade him, that is absolutely a dick move. Not only this, but it undermines the value of the word of the franchise. Future players when considering signing with Boston would think "well, they traded Westmoreland, so they might trade me" which would discourage similar cases from ever signing with the Red Sox.

 

A similar situation is Junichi Tazawa. He took less money to play in Boston because he wanted to be with his idol Daisuke Matsuzaka. If we traded Tazawa, we would be doing a dick move that would make us look bad to some in Japan, which may hurt us in the future.

 

I'm not saying that we shouldn't trade Westmoreland if we could get Gonzalez, but I'd prefer many packages involving most others, especially considering how good he is/projects to be. I just think it would be a total dick move to trade him if the ONLY reason why he signed was to be with Boston. We might as well have just let him go to Vanderbilt.

[SoxFan1970]

I understand everyone's concern, But what has Bucholtz done other than the no-hitter? He is 26 and i would think by now he would be a dominant 1-2 if he was going to be. He is a #2-#4 starter on a bad team like the Padres.

He would do much better in a weaker division. Trade him while his stock is highest. Don't forget he could tank and then what?

I love the idea of getting AGon without giving up Kelly or Westmoreland, but was wondering, have the Sox given up on Lars Anderson?

[Dipre]

I understand everyone's concern, But what has Bucholtz done other than the no-hitter? He is 26 and i would think by now he would be a dominant 1-2 if he was going to be. He is a #2-#4 starter on a bad team like the Padres.

He would do much better in a weaker division. Trade him while his stock is highest. Don't forget he could tank and then what?

I love the idea of getting AGon without giving up Kelly or Westmoreland, but was wondering, have the Sox given up on Lars Anderson?

 

I believe they actually don't wanna sell low on him. He's still really young and could bounce back.

[Spudboy]

You can say that it's not the GM's job to be sentimental, but you offered nothing to suggest that it wouldn't be a "dick" move, which in all fairness, is nearly an impossible thing to prove. I understand how being a GM results in moves for the team being more important than sentimental moves, but if you have a player who signed ONLY because it was your team (otherwise he would have gone to college) and you trade him, that is absolutely a dick move. Not only this, but it undermines the value of the word of the franchise. Future players when considering signing with Boston would think "well, they traded Westmoreland, so they might trade me" which would discourage similar cases from ever signing with the Red Sox.

 

A similar situation is Junichi Tazawa. He took less money to play in Boston because he wanted to be with his idol Daisuke Matsuzaka. If we traded Tazawa, we would be doing a dick move that would make us look bad to some in Japan, which may hurt us in the future.

 

I'm not saying that we shouldn't trade Westmoreland if we could get Gonzalez, but I'd prefer many packages involving most others, especially considering how good he is/projects to be. I just think it would be a total dick move to trade him if the ONLY reason why he signed was to be with Boston. We might as well have just let him go to Vanderbilt.

 

Oddly, Kelly signed in similar circumstances. He had signed a letter of intent to be a Quarterback at Tennessee. Then he changed his mind to sign as a Sox draftee.

 

I'd rather keep Kelly, and let Westmoreland go. Why? That's easy. "5 tool" wunderkind like Westmoreland are a dime a dozen, so to speak. How many have been on the Sox in the last 12 months? Drew, He has made it. Van Every, not yet! And not with the Sox! Elllsbury. For now, anyway. Everett. Bust. And gone. Hirmida. ???? Nothing yet!

 

Get my point? All world talent/athleticism in a positional player is a much more common commodity than a stud like pitching prospect. Kelly is very young. He has to make his way in Portland in 2010. But he has, at the least, proven to be all that has been expected of his projected talent so far. And he is healthy. Pitching talent is very hard to come by. That is a given.

 

As far as the Sox and Theo being "Dicks", well, it won't exactly be the first time. Bronson Arroyo signed a franchise friendly deal only to be discarded for for a worthless bag of suck in WMP. It's just a business, after all. Westmoreland grew up 30 miles from here (where I live). I'd love to see him thrive in a Sox uni. But I'd rather see the Sox make wise utilization of their assets. And I have to believe that Westmoreland and his advisers have been aware of this eventuality.

[Palodios]

I think I learned all I needed to know about Buchholz when he had to face Verlander, Sabathia and Halladay in a span of 3 starts. He averaged 6 1/3 innings, and gave up five runs between all three of those starts.

He's done having butterfly in his stomach. He's done playing the minor leagues. This kid is a stud who can duel it out with the best of them. You may think that he hasn't hit his prime yet at 26, but considering that he's yet to have a full season in the majors, do you really think we've seen the best he has to offer? His start in the playoffs was pretty impressive, and if you don't count his two blowup games at the end of the season when it really didn't matter, he had a 3.21 era.

[BSN07]

You can say that it's not the GM's job to be sentimental, but you offered nothing to suggest that it wouldn't be a "dick" move, which in all fairness, is nearly an impossible thing to prove. I understand how being a GM results in moves for the team being more important than sentimental moves, but if you have a player who signed ONLY because it was your team (otherwise he would have gone to college) and you trade him, that is absolutely a dick move. Not only this, but it undermines the value of the word of the franchise. Future players when considering signing with Boston would think "well, they traded Westmoreland, so they might trade me" which would discourage similar cases from ever signing with the Red Sox.

 

A similar situation is Junichi Tazawa. He took less money to play in Boston because he wanted to be with his idol Daisuke Matsuzaka. If we traded Tazawa, we would be doing a dick move that would make us look bad to some in Japan, which may hurt us in the future.

 

I'm not saying that we shouldn't trade Westmoreland if we could get Gonzalez, but I'd prefer many packages involving most others, especially considering how good he is/projects to be. I just think it would be a total dick move to trade him if the ONLY reason why he signed was to be with Boston. We might as well have just let him go to Vanderbilt.

 

 

Oddly, Kelly signed in similar circumstances. He had signed a letter of intent to be a Quarterback at Tennessee. Then he changed his mind to sign as a Sox draftee.

 

I'd rather keep Kelly, and let Westmoreland go. Why? That's easy. "5 tool" wunderkind like Westmoreland are a dime a dozen, so to speak. How many have been on the Sox in the last 12 months? Drew, He has made it. Van Every, not yet! And not with the Sox! Elllsbury. For now, anyway. Everett. Bust. And gone. Hirmida. ???? Nothing yet!

 

Get my point? All world talent/athleticism in a positional player is a much more common commodity than a stud like pitching prospect. Kelly is very young. He has to make his way in Portland in 2010. But he has, at the least, proven to be all that has been expected of his projected talent so far. And he is healthy. Pitching talent is very hard to come by. That is a given.

 

As far as the Sox and Theo being "Dicks", well, it won't exactly be the first time. Bronson Arroyo signed a franchise friendly deal only to be discarded for for a worthless bag of suck in WMP. It's just a business, after all. Westmoreland grew up 30 miles from here (where I live). I'd love to see him thrive in a Sox uni. But I'd rather see the Sox make wise utilization of their assets. And I have to believe that Westmoreland and his advisers have been aware of this eventuality.

 

I agree it would be a "dick" move and would hurt their credibility. But I can't blame them if they do decide to move them. Because in the end let's face it, their assest's. And the team should use them as such.

 

 

I understand everyone's concern' date=' But what has[b'] Bucholtz [/b]done other than the no-hitter? He is 26 and i would think by now he would be a dominant 1-2 if he was going to be. He is a #2-#4 starter on a bad team like the Padres.

He would do much better in a weaker division. Trade him while his stock is highest. Don't forget he could tank and then what?

I love the idea of getting AGon without giving up Kelly or Westmoreland, but was wondering, have the Sox given up on Lars Anderson?

 

First of all it's Buchholz.

 

Don't let his spot in the rotation fool you. Buchholz on most other teams is no lower the a #3. The fact he is in the #5 spot is a testemet to how good the Sox potential starting rotation is. And there is a reason his stock is probably higher then it's ever been. And it's not because he isn't good.

 

Did anyone else bang their head on the screen while reading this last sentence? I had to go back twice to make sure I didn't miss a sentence.

 

But no I doubt they have "given" up on him after one bad year. He had a setback this year, and it happens. Wasn't the first it happened too, and won't be the last. This season will be important though. If he doesn't rebound this year, then there might be a cause for concern IMO.

[SoxFan1970]

That's why i asked about Lars Anderson. I know one bad season doesn't make the player, But if we do bring in AGon then Lars doesn't have a spot unless he moves to left field where he played back in HS.

You make good points "BSN07" about Buchholz, And even though he is a great trade chip, if we keep him he should be a great 5th starter.

[italstallianion]

That's why i asked about Lars Anderson. I know one bad season doesn't make the player, But if we do bring in AGon then Lars doesn't have a spot unless he moves to left field where he played back in HS.

You make good points "BSN07" about Buchholz, And even though he is a great trade chip, if we keep him he should be a great 5th starter.

 

 

Don't forget that Ortiz (and Lowell) are probably gone after next season, so we will have a flexible DH spot. Not saying that Lars will DH, but we can move around with DH/1B/3B etc.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Clay/Kalish/Anderson/Bowden/Redick/Iglesias for A-Gone? Hoyer would do this today. He is not getting Clay AND any of Westy/Kelly/Bard... he will settle for a BULK of top prospects over a couple of ELITE ones... SD needs TONS of help.

 

I would rather give Kelley or Westy than Clay.

[Dipre]

Clay/Kalish/Anderson/Bowden/Redick/Iglesias for A-Gone? Hoyer would do this today. He is not getting Clay AND any of Westy/Kelly/Bard... he will settle for a BULK of top prospects over a couple of ELITE ones... SD needs TONS of help.

 

I would rather give Kelley or Westy than Clay.

 

The Sox would rather give up Westy, but Kelly has simply been deemed untouchable by Theo himself.

[TheMino007]

If the Sox sign Bay I don't see Ellsbury being on the bench for this team, that makes him expendable, so I think the Sox would trade him and try not to trade Clay. Theo doesn't want to deal two major league ready players. It would make sense to keep Westmorland and trade Kelly b/c we need a guy who will be ready in two years when Cameron and Drew leave. What is Kalish's upside, will he be better than Westmoreland?

[Dipre]

If the Sox sign Bay I don't see Ellsbury being on the bench for this team' date=' that makes him expendable, so I think the Sox would trade him and try not to trade Clay. Theo doesn't want to deal two major league ready players. It would make sense to keep Westmorland and trade Kelly b/c we need a guy who will be ready in two years when Cameron and Drew leave. What is Kalish's upside, will he be better than Westmoreland?[/quote']

 

The Sox would rather give up Westy' date=' but [b']Kelly has simply been deemed untouchable by Theo himself.[/b]

 

Trading Kelly doesn't make sense because they are simply unwilling to trade him.

[Dojji]

What is Kalish's upside' date=' will he be better than Westmoreland?[/quote']

 

Probably not, but that depends on Westmoreland staying healthy and reaching his potential, which is up in the air, especially the health part. Right now, Kalish is a lot closer to the bigs and is a very solid prospect with acceptable speed and power.

 

So no, Westmoreland's upside is a lot higher than Kalish, but a team looking to contend quickly might prefer Kalish anyway, especially if they think he projects as a Johnny Damon type (with a better arm obviously) in CF.

 

Guessing that a lot of people still see Kalish as more of a David Murphy type. Average starter, or very nice bench player. But not worth trading franchise staples for. He'll need a really good year in AAA to break through as a potential starting OF, especially if his bat needs to play at the corners.