Unofficial Adrian Gonzalez thread.

[Gom]

Here you go.

 

ESPN's Gordon Edes tweets that there's "nothing going on" on the Gonzalez front. Edes doesn't expect the Red Sox to land Adrian Beltre or Matt Holliday either.

[MNSoxChief102]

Gordon Edes is a twat...

 

Not saying he's wrong here, but a twat nonetheless.

[example1]

Thanks for making the thread Gom.

 

 

I actually wouldn't be shocked if Edes was right. I think people may be overvaluing the need for a big bat.

 

They are in a position where adding one elite player makes them close to favorites. If the Sox are patient (they usually are) then I think they're bound to find a deal to their liking.

 

This talk of moving Buchholz and Ellsbury fills one need while creating others, and it doesn't make sense. Currently:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

V-Mart

Youkilis

Ortiz

Lowell/Replacement

Drew

Cameron

Scutaro

 

Beckett

Lester

Lackey

Dice-K

Buchholz

 

That's still a very good lineup and the best rotation in baseball. They can wait for the asking price on Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder to drop, can hold their prospects in case Mauer becomes available, etc., while still being in a position to make the playoffs and, with that rotation, win in the playoffs. They can make moves at the deadline if needed, but they shouldn't overpay to land Adrian Gonzalez or trade players who hurt the team now. If they can move just prospects, great, otherwise, this team is already pretty good.

 

I'm not saying they don't need a bat, they do, but the question is WHEN do they need the bat and MUSt that bat be Adrian Gonzalez. I don't think so.

 

There's a chance they can get a deal done for their next big bat without moving Buchholz or Ellsbury or any foolishness like that, if they're just patient.

[MNSoxChief102]

Thanks for making the thread Gom.

There's a chance they can get a deal done for their next big bat without moving Buchholz or Ellsbury or any foolishness like that, if they're just patient.

 

I agree with that to an extent. I think that if the Sox can find a middle ground on a deal for AGon, then Buch/Ells are likely gone depending on who Hoyer is in love with. That said, the likelihood of that deal going down is fairly slim at this point.

 

Theo made an interesting comment in the presser today about it being easier to go out and get a bat mid-season as opposed to trading for a top tier starting pitcher at the same point. That kind of indicates to me that the Sox are comfortable for the time being with their lineup and are willing to go to war with these guys until it's obvious things aren't working.

 

You never know... the Tigers could end up playing poorly again early on and decide the time is right to move Cabrera. Having plenty of chips to work with then would be nice.

[Keeper]

I actually wouldn't be shocked if Edes was right. I think people may be overvaluing the need for a big bat.

 

Strongly disagree. Now that Bay is out of the picture, the need for a big bat is more pressing than ever.

[TedWilliams101]

They need a replacement for 3rd, Lowell isn't going to cut it. If they don't want to trade for Gonzalez or Cabrera then they should sign Beltre. Defensively, this team can't afford to be stuck with Lowell at 3rd.

[Gom]

Which is better...one year of Lowell at 12 million, or three years of Beltre at 39 million [assuming a 30 year deal, and 9 million to trade Lowell]?

[Dipre]

They need a replacement for 3rd' date=' Lowell isn't going to cut it. If they don't want to trade for Gonzalez or Cabrera then they should sign Beltre. Defensively, this team can't afford to be stuck with Lowell at 3rd.[/quote']

 

Not only defensively, but offensively either, father time is bound to catch up to him sooner rather than later, and without Bay, well, we really need a better bat.

[rhet]

Not only defensively' date=' but offensively either, father time is bound to catch up to him sooner rather than later, and without Bay, well, we really need a better bat.[/quote']

 

Beltre can't hit.

[MNSoxChief102]

Beltre can't hit.

 

In Seattle, that would be true. That place kills hitters.

 

In Fenway, I like his chances.

[Emmz]

Beltre can't hit.

 

Incorrect. Beltre had respectable numbers IN SEATTLE. SAFECO is a terrible place for hitters, and he still put up some decent power numbers. I think he'd be a prime candidate for huge bounce-back season at Fenway.

[Dipre]

Beltre can't hit.

 

If you call 25 HR's, 35 2B's, and 90 RBI (I know you love RBI's, this is his average season from 2006-08 by the way , '09 he busted a nut), not hitting, then i suppose you would be correct. Given the fact that he played half his games at Safeco and with a pathetic Mariners lineup, adjusting for Fenway and the

Sox lineup should improve his numbers just a tad. Listen, you can't just go out and say "he can't do this, he can't do that" without at least presenting a compelling case, between stats and subjective opinion, everyone else will take stats all the time, specially with a sample size as convincing as that.

[CoachC.]

Here you go.

 

ESPN's Gordon Edes tweets that there's "nothing going on" on the Gonzalez front. Edes doesn't expect the Red Sox to land Adrian Beltre or Matt Holliday either.

 

The same Gordon Edes who said this a WEEK ago ...

 

4. Pass on John Lackey

 

John Lackey, the Angels’ right-hander, is the best available starter on the free-agent market, but unless they’re executing a colossal bluff, the Sox don’t see enough there to justify the A.J. Burnett-type money it may take to sign him

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?columnist=edes_gordon&id=4720994

 

I remember back in the day he mentioned both the Nomar and Manny trades weren't going down either.

[Emmz]

The same Gordon Edes who said this a WEEK ago ...

 

 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?columnist=edes_gordon&id=4720994

 

I remember back in the day he mentioned both the Nomar and Manny trades weren't going down either.

 

Yeah, you should almost think of it as when Gordon Edes says it won't happen, it very well could happen.

[MNSoxChief102]

The same Gordon Edes who said this a WEEK ago ...

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?columnist=edes_gordon&id=4720994

 

I remember back in the day he mentioned both the Nomar and Manny trades weren't going down either.

 

:lol:

 

My earlier post is confirmed...

[CoachC.]

He could be a new "mouthpiece." That same Gordon Edes reported this a couple hours ago:

 

But Gonzalez is not about to be traded to Boston, and when/if he is, it will not be for a package of pitcher Clay Buchholz and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to a baseball source familiar with the plans of both the Red Sox and Padres.

 

The Red Sox would never package both players in the same deal, the source said, and the Padres at this stage have targeted other players in the Red Sox system, and are looking for a boatload of premium prospects.

 

At this stage, the Red Sox are prepared to start the season with Casey Kotchman at first base, moving Kevin Youkilis to third, as they also have abandoned efforts to sign third baseman Adrian Beltre. Gonzalez would be a much more likely target at midseason than now, the source said.

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/redsox/blog/_/post/4748702/name/edes?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait, so Lowell is considered gone? Is this really the lineup...

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Drew RF

7. Cameron LF

8. Kotchmann 1B

9. Scutaro SS

 

Thats not a very good lineup

[Dipre]

Wait, so Lowell is considered gone? Is this really the lineup...

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Drew RF

7. Cameron LF

8. Kotchmann 1B

9. Scutaro SS

 

Thats not a very good lineup

 

I seriously doubt Kotchman starts the season as the regular 1B, and even if he does, it's still a solid lineup that can hold its own until the chance to acquire a big bat presents itself.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the sox put THAT lineup out there while waiting until midseason for a trade, they will be so far behind in the division that any deal they make won't help them in the AL East. And with Seattle improving, that lineup would put them behind the 8 ball in the WC as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

You'd see a lot of this...

 

Drew takes 7 pitches and walks

Cameron strikes out on 3 pitches

Kotchmann grounds to 1st

Scutaro pops up.

[Dipre]

If the sox put THAT lineup out there while waiting until midseason for a trade' date=' they will be so far behind in the division that any deal they make won't help them in the AL East. And with Seattle improving, that lineup would put them behind the 8 ball in the WC as well.[/quote']

 

Seattle's lineup is weaker than that one, also:

 

Lester

Beckett

Lackey

Dice-K

Bucholz

 

+

 

Bullpen.

 

 

Enough pitching there for the Sox to be a competitive team even with Suckman (who will not be the regular 1B ) manning 1st.

 

Please Jacko, be objective.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox biggest problem down the stretch was a hot and cold, lackluster offense. They'd go on 5 game tears where they'd score 45 runs, then go 4 games scoring 6 runs.

 

That lineup is solid 1-4, although Martinez isnt a great #3 hitter. He'd probably be better in the 5 or 6 hole. Youkilis is fine in the cleanup role. But Ortiz in the middle of the order is a problem since he was pretty bad last yr and will be a yr older, and Drew needs to have a run producer behind him since he walks so much.

[Dipre]

The sox biggest problem down the stretch was a hot and cold, lackluster offense. They'd go on 5 game tears where they'd score 45 runs, then go 4 games scoring 6 runs.

 

That lineup is solid 1-4, although Martinez isnt a great #3 hitter. He'd probably be better in the 5 or 6 hole. Youkilis is fine in the cleanup role. But Ortiz in the middle of the order is a problem since he was pretty bad last yr and will be a yr older, and Drew needs to have a run producer behind him since he walks so much.

 

There's one thing i have to ask you though.

 

How come father time will hit Red Sox players but not Yankee players?

[a700hitter]

They can't start the season with Kotchman at 1B. He stinks-- strictly a bottom third of the order hitter.When Varitek plays, our bottom 4 would really a suck if VMart needs a rest.

[jacksonianmarch]

There's one thing i have to ask you though.

 

How come father time will hit Red Sox players but not Yankee players?

 

father time already hit Ortiz last yr.

[Dipre]

father time already hit Ortiz last yr.

 

He disappeared for the first two months of the season. It's not impossible that the Ortiz that played from June on is the Ortiz that will play for the entire '10 season.

 

His mechanics were f***ed up, and he couldn't catch up to average fastballs. after adjustments were made around the end of May however, he posted the following month-by-month OPS's:

 

June: 1.062

 

July: .845

 

August: .825

 

September/October: .911.

 

 

His April and May lines looked like this:

 

April: .623

 

May: .520

 

 

Your "father time hit Ortiz" statement is a textbook example of bias, looking at the stats, you can tell that after his rough start (which could be attributed to a number of things), he was a highly productive player, when you talk about "father time", you should talk about a 38-year-old Posada too, but i guess father time doesn't hit Yankee players?

[Rdsxmbnt]

1. Ellsbury CF .360/.780

2. Pedroia 2B .378/.843

3. Martinez C .377/.841

4. Youkilis 3B .394/.886

5. Ortiz DH .369/.888

6. Drew RF .385/.859

7. Cameron LF .328/.756

8. Kotchmann 1B .342/.759

9. Scutaro SS .347/.728

 

Those are the Bill James estimates for the lineup Jacko provided. It's not the Yankees but that squad has exceptional OBP abilities and is pretty solid throughout. That is certainly a top 5 offense, and honestly I'd say a number of those predictions are pretty conservative (Youk, Martinez, Drew in particular). Plus that is possibly the best defense in the league.

[Dipre]

1. Ellsbury CF .360/.780

2. Pedroia 2B .378/.843

3. Martinez C .377/.841

4. Youkilis 3B .394/.886

5. Ortiz DH .369/.888

6. Drew RF .385/.859

7. Cameron LF .328/.756

8. Kotchmann 1B .342/.759

9. Scutaro SS .347/.728

 

Those are the Bill James estimates for the lineup Jacko provided. It's not the Yankees but that squad has exceptional OBP abilities and is pretty solid throughout. That is certainly a top 5 offense, and honestly I'd say a number of those predictions are pretty conservative (Youk, Martinez, Drew in particular). Plus that is possibly the best defense in the league.

 

I could see better numbers from Ells, Youk, and Drew, but worse numbers from Ortiz and Kotchman.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, as much as you would like to pretend that he wasnt, Ortiz was a bad DH last yr. Yes, he finished the yr strong, but great hitters who succumb to time do not typically fall off a cliff. They slump more than usual, their bat gets a little longer, they dont cover the plate as well as they used to. Even when Papi was hitting last season, he could not hit a hard fastball. That was never a problem for him. When he was murdering us in 2004 and 2005, you couldnt get a fastball by him. Now, you just throw a fastball. No breaking pitches anymore since he's got a slider speed bat. Its obvious.

 

Now, there are plenty of guys who are older on the yankees. Some of them ancient. But none have shown that dip in production. Posada had his 4th best season of his career, Jeter had his second or third best, ARod, had another .900+OPS season even with his hip being a problem early on, and Rivera was still pumping it into the mid 90s for most of the season. Father time will hit them eventually. They cannot all play until they are 45 at a high level. But, all of them are in peak shape and currently all of them are coming off good seasons and are fully healthy. Ortiz isnt. He's coming off wrist and knee injuries and last yr he looked like a sloth in the batters box. To deflect that is ignorant.

 

Also, Dipre, I see that your "flair" is coming back. Thats both good and bad. Your vacation from here was actually a peaceful time on the board, but when you arent hurling insults, you contribute a lot. Welcome back, hopefully it doesnt degenerate again

[diony]

Wait, so Lowell is considered gone? Is this really the lineup...

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Drew RF

7. Cameron LF

8. Kotchmann 1B

9. Scutaro SS

 

Thats not a very good lineup

Good enough for the WC. There's some holes and question marks.