Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd also put on that list that the recovery after the barrage on injuries was big too. After Posada, ARod and Wang went down, we stayed pretty healthy.

[yankees228]

I'd also put on that list that the recovery after the barrage on injuries was big too. After Posada' date=' ARod and Wang went down, we stayed pretty healthy.[/quote']

 

While this is true, the reason I didn't mention it is because staying healthy is an obvious and universal key to success.

[example1]

Pitching is very important and becomes more important as the postseason looms. But the O is incredibly important over 162 games and I think NY's consistent offensive output was the biggest reason for winning the division.

 

The Yankees offense is the difference maker IMO. No matter how good the other team's pitchers are, they will have to slog through a game to get a W. I think this has been the case since 2003.

 

Think about the 04 playoffs, it wasn't like Schilling and Pedro dominated the Yankees. They worked really, really hard to get them out. When Papelbon enters a game against the Yankees it is never easy, same with Beckett, Lester, etc.,

 

The Red Sox added John Lackey who is undoubtedly an ace, but even in his good games against the Yankees he needs to work out of jams and pitch really well. Very few pitchers can ever just show up and shut down the Yankees (like Cliff Lee managed to do).

 

I think a700 and I would agree that to beat the Yankees the Sox offense needs to be almost as intimidating as the Yankees offense. However, to win the division and/or make the playoffs it is all about the rotation staying effective and healthy through the course of a season.

[kreinbihl34]

So what you're saying is the red sox have to be really good at everything?

[example1]

The Red Sox had a 3-4 that could almost carry their entire team for stretches. That advantage' date=' in my opinion, can transcend an entire team. It's the best one I ever saw, and, I think it was one of the main reasons for their success. It didn't put the Red Sox lineup on par with the Yankees lineup, but it narrowed the gap significantly, and when you take into account other aspects of the two teams, I think they're relatively even. [/quote']

 

Certainly having two elite hitters in the middle of the lineup changed things. However, they had those players (and a good Nomar Garciaparra) in 2003 and they couldn't get it done. They got it done by adding a real closer and one of the game's best pitchers. The 2009-2010 Red Sox have a different look, but one which I think is just as good, if not better than those teams were. They are set at more important positions in 2010 than they were in 2004, and are stronger as a franchise because of it. They have a deeper, more balanced rotation with key pieces signed for a few years. If they add one more elite bat I think they will be better than the 04 club was (on paper, at least ).

 

I realize that when Rivera and Jeter leave the Yankees will no longer be the same team. How is that relevant?

 

Sorry I didn't make that clear. It is relevant because just as the Sox couldn't easily purchase or develop replacements for Ortiz and Manny, the Yankees won't be able to do that with Rivera and Jeter. It isn't a criticism of any FO that they can't replace Manny and Ortiz (or Rivera and Jeter) it's just a fact of life, IMO. Any criticism about the Sox not having replaced Manny and Ortiz needs to be taken with the understanding that sometimes players are simply irreplacable.

 

Rivera and Jeter will go someday (sooner than later) and that will completely change the competitive balance between the Sox and Yankees. It won't swing things completely in the Sox favor, but the Yankees could replace Jeter with Hanley Ramirez tomorrow and I would be happy because there's no assurance Hanley will be one of the game's best ever playoff performers and team leaders. Likewise, Rivera could be replaced with Papelbon or Joe Nathan and I would be happy. That's how good those guys are. They're superhuman, once in a lifetime, dynastic talents who apparently didn't take PEDs, avoided injuries, and didn't flake out on their team like Manny did.

 

The ground rule double is the break I was referring to. Sure, coming back from 3-0 was unprecedented, but that doesn't make it a break. When you consider both teams, I think the bigger fluke is that the Yankees won three games in a row, rather than the Red Sox winning four games in a row.

 

That series hinged on a stolen base by Dave Roberts and Curtis Leskanic getting out of jams in extra innings. Yes, the Red Sox earned their victory, but it was absolutely in the "crapshoot" realm of things, rather than the "better on paper" realm.

 

I don't know about the Yankees 3 game winning streak (2 at home, 1 at Fenway) being a bigger fluke than the Sox winning 4 (2 at home, 2 a Yankee Stadium). The Sox tied games against Rivera twice in a row. That doesn't happen. I think 4 is more unlikely than 3.

 

Also, I realize we were comparing teams before the season started. I never said the Red Sox had a far better team going into any of those seasons. Actually, I never even said they had a better team. I said the teams were comparable.

 

Honestly, my beef was never with you or your opinions. This discussion is more focused at a700's doomsday predictions based on how the team looks in January and his assumption that they are not going to get the big 1B/3B/DH bat that they need (they'll get Dante Bichette rather than Adrian Gonzalez). I think that reasonable Yankee fans have more confidence that Theo will keep this team ultra competitive than a700hitter does.

 

Even going into 2009 I didn't think the Yankees had a decided advantage. The Red Sox had a huge advantage in the bullpen, and (I've argued this point numerous times following this season) people tend to forget the state of the Yankees' lineup heading into the year. There was a lot of talk, which I agreed with, that there was only one guarantee in the Yankees' lineup (Teixeira).

 

This is all just a matter of opinion, but people posted here how they thought the AL East would play out. I wasn't the only one who thought the Yankees had the superior team. I never assumed that Teixeira would be the only guarantee in the lineup, as I tend to think of players like Jeter, Cano, Posada and A-Rod as perpetual thorns in the Red Sox side.

[a700hitter]

Also' date=' I should have stated before that your previous post talked about comparing the teams "before the 04 ALCS", which I should have addressed before. I was talking about teams on paper before the season started. Before the 04 ALCS I would have said that the Sox stood a good chance (though I wouldn't have said they were favorites, especially not after some of the epic head-to-head matches from the 04 season and the residual hangover from the devistating loss in 03). Comparable teams, but the Sox weren't favorites in my eyes.[/quote']Maybe that's what you thought before the beginning of 2004, but don't speak for the rest of us. I can recall a couple of conversations with my son after the 2003 ALCS which were indicative of my opinion. That night I told him that the look in Theo's eyes showed me that he was taking the loss very badly, and that if he could have he would have fired the idiot manager that night. I also told him that I thought they would make some very big moves to put them over the top in 2004.

 

The day after the World Series Little got fired. That made me very happy. Then came Schilling and then Foulke. After they got Foulke I told him that we came very close in 2003 and that these moves would remove any doubt, especially coupled with Clemens and Pettitte bailing out on the Yanks. Going into 2004, I thought the Sox were better. It was the first year that I decided to go to Spring Training. What surprised me about 2004 was that the Sox play was so mediocre until the last two months of the regular season. I was truly surprised that the Yankees were ahead. Unfortunately, Nomar became an old man and a defensive statue with a bad attitude to boot. When the Sox went on their run after the trading deadline, I thought they would roll right over the Yanks. I had little or no regard for Leiber, Vasquez or Kevin Brown. You denigrate your own team by acting like the 2004 team accomplishment was some act of god or freakish luck. The Sox were the better team. You hinge this luck theory on Clark's ball staying in the field of play, and Leskanic's pitching? Leskanic pitched much better for the Sox in 2004 than Esteben Loiaza and Heredia had pitched for the Yankees. Loiaza and Heredia combined for 3 2/3 innings of 1 run ball in game 5. That was lucky. Those guys stunk for the Yankees.

 

You may not have felt that the Sox were the better team after landing Schilling and Foulke and the Yankees losing Clemens and Pettitte, but you don't speak for the rest of us. 228 and I felt differently, and I agree with 228 that the balance of power has shifted back to the Yanks after last years acquisitions of CC, Burnett and Tex and the Sox loss of Manny and Ortiz drop off. I too mark these events as the turning point.

[a700hitter]

Sorry I didn't make that clear. It is relevant because just as the Sox couldn't easily purchase or develop replacements for Ortiz and Manny, the Yankees won't be able to do that with Rivera and Jeter. It isn't a criticism of any FO that they can't replace Manny and Ortiz (or Rivera and Jeter) it's just a fact of life, IMO. Any criticism about the Sox not having replaced Manny and Ortiz needs to be taken with the understanding that sometimes players are simply irreplacable.

 

Rivera and Jeter will go someday (sooner than later) and that will completely change the competitive balance between the Sox and Yankees. It won't swing things completely in the Sox favor, but the Yankees could replace Jeter with Hanley Ramirez tomorrow and I would be happy because there's no assurance Hanley will be one of the game's best ever playoff performers and team leaders.

But when Jeter is gone, the Yankee fans might blame their FO if the Sox sign HanRam and shift the balance of power back to the Sox. Similarly, I think it is fair to question the FO performance in losing out on Teixeira last year causing a shift back to the Yankees.

 

Honestly' date=' my beef was never with you or your opinions. This discussion is more focused at a700's doomsday predictions based on how the team looks in January and his assumption that they are not going to get the big 1B/3B/DH bat that they need (they'll get Dante Bichette rather than Adrian Gonzalez). I think that reasonable Yankee fans have more confidence that Theo will keep this team ultra competitive than a700hitter does.[/quote']There is no doomsday scenario by me, but just an honest assessment of where I think this team currently stands. It's a good team. I like the acquisition of Lackey a lot, but I don't know if the runs we will give up will go down as much as the runs we score. It might be close, but the differential in runs saved in excess of offensive runs lost will not be great enough IMO to close the gap and surpass the Yankees. Why is that a doomsday scenario? I'm not the only one that doesn't like the idea of Kotchman as a starter. All the good FA bats are gone, and IMO, we are not getting Gonzalez mid-season. If we don't get him now I really don't think we will get him after the season starts. I'll buy you dinner if we do.

 

I think this is a fairly realistic outlook. There's nothing doomsday about it.

[yankees228]

ex1...

 

Nice post, and I agree with most of it. Just a few points...

 

When I talked about Ortiz/Ramirez, it wasn't meant as a criticism of the front office. I understand that they cannot be replaced, and now I understand why you mentioned the Yankees' players. My only point was really just a statement, that they're a completely different team without those two in the middle of the order.

 

As for 2004, while those were important moments of the series, that doesn't mean it was a fluke. At the same time, they only won game two because Jon Lieber pitched the game of his life, something that certainly wasn't expected. The only reason the Yankees were even in a position to close out game four was because of a sloppy Red Sox defense in the sixth inning. Those tiny things happen all the time, and, in a short series they do mean so much (which is why the postseason is such a crapshoot) but I really think the Red Sox won because they were a better team.

 

Also, they didn't really beat Rivera twice. In game five, he came in with first and third and nobody out, only up one run. That really isn't his fault, and falls squarely on the shoulders of Tom Gordon.

 

As for the Yankees' offense going into the year, while I wouldn't go as far as some people and say the only guarantee was Teixeira, it's important to look at the state of the players you mentioned going into the year.

 

Jeter: Since 2006 had been trending downward, and was getting up there in age.

A-Rod: Needed surgery in March. He was an enormous question mark going into the year.

Posada: Coming off an injury in 2008 which caused him to miss most of the season, and was getting up there in age.

Cano: Coming off the worst year of his career.

 

I agree that it's a matter of opinion, but considering how the season turned out, I think people tend to lose sight of the state of the Yankees' offense heading into the year.

[JimEdHOF2009]

The Yankees offense is the difference maker IMO. No matter how good the other team's pitchers are, they will have to slog through a game to get a W. I think this has been the case since 2003.

 

Think about the 04 playoffs, it wasn't like Schilling and Pedro dominated the Yankees. They worked really, really hard to get them out. When Papelbon enters a game against the Yankees it is never easy, same with Beckett, Lester, etc.,

 

The Red Sox added John Lackey who is undoubtedly an ace, but even in his good games against the Yankees he needs to work out of jams and pitch really well. Very few pitchers can ever just show up and shut down the Yankees (like Cliff Lee managed to do).

 

I think a700 and I would agree that to beat the Yankees the Sox offense needs to be almost as intimidating as the Yankees offense. However, to win the division and/or make the playoffs it is all about the rotation staying effective and healthy through the course of a season.

 

The Red Sox staff can beat the Yankees..and beat them frequently. With the depth and quality of the staff and pen...NO LINEUP is going to have it easy against the Red Sox. They go from a Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Dice, Buc to a Bard, Papelbon, Ramirez, Okie.. who the hell is going to hit these guys consistently?? I understand the contention that the Sox could use another BIG bat.. and by BIG, I mean Holliday or Gonzalez.. but the Sox, at present..at the very least, are a playoff contender...at the most, with their staff and pen, you could make an argument that the 2009 Boston Red Sox are the best team in baseball.

 

[B]vs. RHP[/b]

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Youkilis

VicMart

Drew

Ortiz(Contract year..he has shed 15 pounds...can you say "bounceback?")

Scutaro

Kotchman(with increased AB's..I look for him to have best year of career)

Hermida (25 HR type guy out of 9-hole)

 

vs. LHP

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Youkilis

VicMart(DH)

Drew

Cameron

Scutaro

Lowell

Varitek C (.805 OPS vs. LHP in 2009)

 

I think this team is every bit as good as the Yankees.. better..no... as good and capable of beating them more than they beat us.. definitely.

[Dipre]

Don't count on a big year from Kotchman, and don't count on him spending the year as the regular 1B. Calling it now.

[BSN07]

Don't count on a big year from Kotchman' date=' and don't count on him spending the year as the regular 1B. Calling it now.[/quote']

 

Stop being "Debbie Downer" dammit!

[Dipre]

Stop being "Debbie Downer" dammit!

 

I'm being realistic. Fenway really hurts a hitter like Kotchman, since whatever little XBH power he had will be taken away by the stadium.

[Keeper]

Hermida (25 HR type guy out of 9-hole)

 

Hermida has never even hit 20 HRs before, so 25 is probably a stretch. There are so many better options than Kotchman to play first base it's not even funny. Gonzalez, Cabrera, Konerko, LaRoche, Branyan, the list goes on.

[Dojji]

any interest in a one year flier on Carlos Delgado? He'd be better as a replacement DH, but he'd be an interesting guy to couple with Kotchman (LIDR) as a last ditch upgrade.

[italstallianion]

It depends on what we can get him for.

[Dipre]

It depends on what we can get him for.

 

You mean "How much" because he's a FA.

 

But his lifetime OPS vs lefties is higher than Kotchman's OPS vs righties. I'd be all for it on a one-year deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Delgado just had hip surgery. You really want to go after another guy who is coming off hip surgery?

[italstallianion]

You mean "How much" because he's a FA.

 

But his lifetime OPS vs lefties is higher than Kotchman's OPS vs righties. I'd be all for it on a one-year deal.

 

 

That would be a better way to word it, however I was also referring to money; as in "what amount".

[Dipre]

Delgado just had hip surgery. You really want to go after another guy who is coming off hip surgery?

 

If he's not going to play 3B and he can hit, then yes.

[a700hitter]

any interest in a one year flier on Carlos Delgado? He'd be better as a replacement DH' date=' but he'd be an interesting guy to couple with Kotchman (LIDR) as a last ditch upgrade.[/quote']I'd prefer Delgado on one leg compared to Kotchman, but as a lefty he wouldn't fit as a platoon with Kotchman. He could platoon with Lowell with Youk bouncing back and forth across the diamond.

[Dojji]

I said Kotchman as LIDR, not as platoon mate. Think Doug Mientkiewicz.

[a700hitter]

I said Kotchman as LIDR' date=' not as platoon mate. Think Doug Mientkiewicz.[/quote']I don't think they will pay him $4 million to be a late inning defensive replacement.

[Dojji]

that doesn't bother me. I don't want them paying Kotchman anything at all.

 

And I hate the argument that salary should determine role. Talent, and only talent, should determine role. If a player is paid $30M but has declined to the point of incompetence, that player should be benched for his $1.5M replacement. If 2009 Vernon Wells and 2009 Denard Span are on the same roster and only CF is open, Span needs to be starting.

 

Doing it any other way is the textbook definition of failthought and is done only in the hopes the players might rebound -- often only to salve the pride of the owner or GM.

[a700hitter]

that doesn't bother me. I don't want them paying Kotchman anything at all.

 

And I hate the argument that salary should determine role. Talent, and only talent, should determine role. If a player is paid $30M but has declined to the point of incompetence, that player should be benched for his $1.5M replacement. If 2009 David Wells and 2009 Denard Span are on the same roster and only CF is open, span needs to be starting.

 

Doing it any other way is the textbook definition of failthought and is done only to salve the pride of the owner or GM in the hopes the players might rebound.

Agreed. If a high paid player is being outplayed, he should sit. He still gets his check, so he should shut up, and the organization should swallow its pride and admit its mistakes. The Sox FO has been good about moving on past its mistakes. Hopefully, they will move on from this Kotchman experiment before it starts.

[Emmz]

Kotchman at first full time... The idea, it just scares me.

[Dojji]

Delgado just had hip surgery. You really want to go after another guy who is coming off hip surgery?

 

A-Rod did fine this year, coming off hip surgery.

 

The hip surgery wasn't Lowell's problem, it was the complications.

[Dipre]

A-Rod did fine this year, coming off hip surgery.

 

The hip surgery wasn't Lowell's problem, it was the complications.

 

Both of them could still hit.

 

And 1B =/= 3B defensively.

[Dojji]

Kinda funny, Dipre, I thought you'd rip me apart if I brought up Delgado. I guess it goes to show you never quite know how someone else thinks,.

[Dipre]

Kinda funny' date=' Dipre, I thought you'd rip me apart if I brought up Delgado. I guess it goes to show you never quite know how someone else thinks,.[/quote']

 

He's a one-year risk who's going to command a low base salary, and who should still be a decent defender at first. Besides, his last name is not Kotchman, so why would i not agree?

[Dojji]

beeeeecauuuuuuse it wouldn't be Adrian Gonzalez I guess.