JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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We need to trade him. We don't have a position for him and won't for a while. And there is a decidedly non-zero chance he doesn't work out like we'd hope for a year ago.
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SF 'probably' goes with Eldridge, even though they promoted him about one year too early. LAA will stick with Schanuel, and the Phillies still with Harper. And we have little chance of out-bidding the Mets. If the Mets pass on Alonso, we should really sign him, regardless of Casas' upside or downside.
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There is a -0- chance that Casas gets non-tendered. He still has serious upside. Traded? Maybe. Houck is close. Assuming he is gone for 2026, and earns $8M for 26-27, he is probably worth keeping.
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The RS will likely only add one #2 type SP, and then maybe sign a lower-tier #4-5. The Nats might trade Gore, but it would be for kids. It would have to start with either Mayer+ or Campbell+.
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He could be good, despite his bad K/W in his rookie year. But the question would remain, why trade talent to obtain a top-30 catching prospect, when we already have a catcher? I'd much prefer to trade for a pitcher or infielder of a similar value.
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He didn't clear 200 because of injuries and ability concerns. In 2025, he averaged 196/600 ABs, and in 2024, he averaged 199 per 600. That's close enough to a 200K season.
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Most of this is unlikely to happen. I have no idea why anyone would want Hoskins or Bell over Casas, unless we find some trade value for him. Replacing Casas with Alonso is definitely interesting. Replacing Casas with Hoskins or Bell just adds expense, and probably a downgrade in talent.
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There is a -0- chance of him being non-tendered. A trade is a far more interesting subject.
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It should be no one, but I think Cincy would be the team to bail. Weaker GMs I think want sure wins so as not to look foolish.
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He has value. Teams that need a 1B with a small budget will consider that he's injured, but also consider that he had a career OPS+ of 126 before last year and three years left. In many ways, it is identical to Greene. He only had 19 GS last year. You're not going to ignore the injury factor and you're not going ignore the talent.
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I get what you're saying, but imho, he's already lost the important ten pounds. If he can continue to lose 1-2 pounds a year, that works for me.
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My thinking is that Alonso has no shot at 7. I think teams will max out at 5, if that. I just don't see a lot of competition. NYMs first and foremost, but they have alternatives. No interest in competing against them. The other 28 teams look like they have money, but no need. Or a need, but not enough money. Or a need + money, but with competing interests. I think we get him for four years, and maybe in the range of $100M/4. If Casas can get us an appropriate return, I'd make the move.
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IRT to Ceddanne, he improved his K/W from 151/15 to 117/28 in one year. I think he could easily become an above average hitter.
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I could trade either or both of Campbell and Garcia, plus Abreu or Duran, but not both. I'd like to see an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Anthony, or Anthony/Rafaela/Abreu. With Refsnyder, that's a very, very good OF. And given the number of years we have left with them, there really isn't a position for either Campbell or Garcia. And it becomes more complicated, but we could also have a basket of Campbell, Garcia, either Duran or Abreu, Casas, plus some good but non-elite prospects, and make more than one trade.
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I'd rather go bigger than Kelly, but he is a good 2-year target. He finished fine, so one would expect at least one good year. So two years is low risk. But if I was going to pay Suarez $23M * 3, I'd go higher and aim for Alonso, again depending on price. Alonso could be younger at the end of his contract than Suarez is at the start of his.
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I don't care who gets my money either, but I understand that both parties have the right to make decisions on their own best interests. The PV of Bregman's contract is ~ $63M/2. If someone offers him, say $150M/5, I can't blame him for taking the extra $87M.
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No. Ceddanne had a 4.8 bWAR, is a platinum-caliber CF, is improving as a hitter, and has one of the best contracts in baseball. I'd be loathe to trade him straight-up for Greene. Like, maybe, but I wouldn't be adding other prospects. We can get other, lower-ranked pitchers, for far less.
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Why would we want to give up a 3.2 bWAR player for a backup catcher?
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Just what I wanted. An injury-prone 33 year old 1B with a 200-strikeout projection.
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Not overly keen on a FB pitcher, in Fenway, with only one year of control. If he's cheap, sure, but I doubt he'll be cheap.
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We're not signing a starting catcher like JTR to be a backup. And JTR won't sign anywhere to be a backup catcher.
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I like Abbott just fine. The lower K-rate might limit his ceiling.
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Impossible to say who is available, but my general thoughts are: I like Lopez over Ryan simply on the lower cost. I'd would target the Reds pitching staff. They have a ton of talent, are in win-now mode, and seem able to make trades. I like the Pitt rotation, but they don't seem to be able to trade. On the Cincy side, I like Greene and Burns and would pay a fair amount for them. I like Abbott and Lodolo, but at a lower cost. If push came to shove, I'd like to take a flyer on Petty. He's pitched badly, but he is still a kid, but occasionally teams look to move guys early than to wait for possibly worse results. And I'd ask Miami about Alcantara, just like everyone else.
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I'm not sure why fans are enamored with Singer. He's a good #3, that's all. IRT Ryan, he finished the season very poorly, and not just a couple of starts. He had a 4.67/4.60 ERA/FIP in the second half and a 6.75/8.01 in September.
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Just random snippets for discussion. I'd love to get Greene, but my point is that there are some other very good targets. I'd make a modest wager that Burns will have at least as much WAR over the next 6 years as Greene will have over the next three. And with some odds, I'd bet on twice as much WAR. It might be a tad too early to consider Abreu a pure platoon. He had a .676 in limited ABs last year. IRT Narvaez, we don't have a catcher to replace him. And since the Reds have Stephenson, they won't want Narvaez. That said, Stephenson is getting a bit expensive, for the Reds, so if they wanted to throw him in as a trade chip, they can have Narvaez. In terms of value, I'd make your trade without much having to think about it much. But we do need a catcher. And I'd prefer to throw in Campbell instead of Mayer, since OF is not much of a problem currently. Now for the fun-what is a leftist belief in metrics? And where do I fit?
