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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    IMO, there are two directions to go in. Having 5 Grays is the easiest path towards making the playoffs. Having two Crochets is the easiest path to a WS, but you have to get to the playoffs first.
  2. JoeBrady
    IMO, someone who can reliably expect to be ranked between 31-60 in WAR.
  3. JoeBrady
    I wonder if their projections are based on static formulas, or if they change them depending on circumstances. Alcantara had K9 rates of 8.4, 8.8 and 8.1 in 2020-21-22, and had an 8.0 in his final 12 starts of 2025. It seems reasonable to me to expect 8.0+ in 2026. But FG projects only 7.65. Same thing with the walks. It feels like they must be using the first half 2025 stats, but I am not sure that's appropriate coming off TJS. I'd bet on an ERA of below 4.00 despite what FG has.
  4. JoeBrady
    I'd never invest in a pitcher that inconsistent. That's fine for a #4/5, which is why guys wind up being a #4/5. If I pay real money for a #2, I want more than 14 QS. Gore can give you a spectacular 14-K 6-inning shutout, but it still only qualifies as one win.
  5. JoeBrady
    I'm not sure why fans focus so much on the 'big plus'. I find it more effective and efficient to add a lot of good pieces, rather than one 'big plus'. And I have no idea why JTR is even in these conversations, unless Narvaez is hurt more than they let on.
  6. JoeBrady
    Again, just like Alonso, the decline is baked into the price. If this was the Gray from two years ago, when he was 2nd in Cy Young voting, we'd have paid full salary and they'd be asking for Mayer instead of two marginal talents.
  7. JoeBrady
    I'm going by what MLB Rumors has. They have Cease at $189M/7, Valdez at $150M/5, and Suarez at $115M/5.
  8. JoeBrady
    Suarez has been on the IL 4x in the past three seasons, averaging on 25 GS. I like his talent a real lot, but there are likely reasons why DD never extended him, and that is probably his health. Do you want to go 5-6 years with Suarez's injury history?
  9. JoeBrady
    I doubt it. Ryan finished poorly. While teams will still be interested, it will affect his price. 6.47/5.85 ERQ/FIP in his final 7 games. GMs will need a reason to dismiss that before, you know, dismissing it. Gray has the same questions, but at a much lower price. That's also why I like Alcantara. He finished with a 2.68/3.62 in his last 8. He's easier to predict two good years with those numbers.
  10. JoeBrady
    I agree 100%. I have a lot of faith in his abilities, but it would be short-sighted to think that this 'couldn't' be an issue. It can be. But that said, anyone can show up in Fenway and play badly.
  11. JoeBrady
    But neither one will get paid as much as Cease. So what does that tell you? That neither are as good. And if Cease is not a #2, then none of the guys worse than him are #2s.
  12. JoeBrady
    Isn't that the same for everyone? Until Alonso produces, until Bregman produces, etc.?
  13. JoeBrady
    Another reason to use FIP over ERA. Crochet was unhittable in his last year with the WS. It took him a month to knock the rust off, and had a 2.83/2.27 the rest of the way. In his last 9 games, he had a 47/3 K/W in only 27.2 IPs. That's just about unhittable. You can't ignore the injury concerns, but he looked like one of the top-3 arms in BB.
  14. JoeBrady
    There is no coming clean with the fans, if for no other reason than no one can predict the future. There might not be a co-ace available at any price. The only one out there that might qualify as a 'co-ace' might be Greene. And maybe Cincy won't trade him to us because everyone wants to help us. Once you get to the next level of a #2, no one will ever agree on who qualifies as a #2. Does anyone consider Burns or Chandler a #2? But I'd prioritize them over almost anyone in baseball. And again, they are very unlikely to be available. Too many fans get overly involved in FO pronouncements and thinking that the FO should be advising them of everything that is going on.
  15. JoeBrady
    To me, he's a headcase. Lots of talent, but lots of bad games. Maybe slightly more talented than Lodolo, but I'd take Lodolo over Gore without a second thought.
  16. JoeBrady
    My opinion is that those three numbers should be identical over ten years. The reason why I prefer FIP over ERA is that it is more consistent and filters out the noise. But over ten years, the noise should be de minimis. Just for fun, with no real research, DeGrom's ERA/FIP is 2.57/2.71. Scherzer is 3.22/3.23. Wheeler is 3.28/3.29. But some fans will never accept calculations that they don't understand. And that's fine. But it is also less accurate.
  17. JoeBrady
    Well said. I think folks need to separate the #2 issue from this trade. There is a better than even chance that neither guy amounts to anything. One more year like last year, and you might not hear about Clarke again. In any case, neither rank highly in our future plans. I think it was best said when someone said 'the Red Sox just got better'. Nice and simple.
  18. JoeBrady
    Okay, I didn't have to add the playoffs. But there is almost no indication that Yoshida is not a good hitter. He's a lefty, and gets paid $18M+. But FG projects him as a wRC+ of 112. I think the RS corner the market on fans that think that, if a guy isn't a star, he's waiver bait. I don't consider Yoshida a problem whatsoever.
  19. JoeBrady
    While I agree that I'd like a #2, and quite honestly, with our farm, I'd like to see if someone is looking to move a #1. That said, the RS could legitimately want to give a rotation spot to Early and Tolle. If the FO assessment is that both of these guys have #2 potential, and the only to get to #2 status is to start them, I can't argue against that. The scouts love Tolle, and like Early a lot. They project as a #2 and a #3. I'd shell out a big package for Chandler or Burns, but there is also a good argument in favor of developing our own prospects.
  20. JoeBrady
    FIP is a better indicator of how well someone pitched. ERA is very inconsistent, and imo, the lowest level stat, except maybe for W/L. Start with K/W, GB/FB and HRs. Massage the HRs if there was an anomaly for a high or low HR/FB. That will tell you how good a pitcher is without spending a couple of hours on it. If you are going to go with a stat like ERA, massage that number for BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%.
  21. JoeBrady
    And BTW, the Jays just signed a real #2. Cease is off the boards. You said that Cease was a "real #2". TBH, I like Cease a little, but that was too much money for someone that inconsistent. But that's not the important part. If you don't like Cease as your #2, and Cease is the best available FA pitcher, what are you looking for?
  22. JoeBrady
    I'd say that Early should rank above those two. Tolle as well, though the RS might be thinking of different ways to develop him.
  23. JoeBrady
    One of the concepts that RS need to get use to is that you get what you pay for. If Alonso had a better glove, he'd get paid more money. If Alonso was two years younger, you'd have to sign him for two more years. Those things are already baked into his $110M/4. That's why he isn't $180M/6.
  24. JoeBrady
    No fans should ever think that they see things similar to any FO. And no executive of any company should be more forthcoming than the law mandates.
  25. JoeBrady
    I think your total payroll will be in excess of $280M. Not happening.
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