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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    98% of the fans stand, but the old dude shouldn't have forced the kid to stand.
  2. JoeBrady
    He could be a platoon candidate. His numbers against righties projects to about 26 HRs and 20/2 SB/CS. He has a .598 OPS, but that's mostly due to a .220 BABIP. His career BABIP against righties is .331. I expect him to be okay++.
  3. JoeBrady
    That's what I love about Contreras. I am not advocating a violent lifestyle, but it doesn't hurt to have people at least a little uncertain around you. And with Duran, I'm betting that some of them just love to watch him run. He hasn't been doing as much lately, but the triple last night was pretty fun. And lastly, I like having a least a couple of guys that like to spend time in the gym. I know it is still controversial in BB, but I do like a lifting culture.
  4. JoeBrady
    Bryant was worse because you knew at the time Bryant was worse at the time of the signing. On the day they signed him, I said that they should trade him to the RS, to play LF, and to throw in a check for $52M. Even before he played a game. He turned out even worse than that, but it was a bad contract from day 1. Bogaerts was likely a $100M overpay.
  5. JoeBrady
    That's why I said it is all relative. Einstein told me that when we went to school together (he helped me with science and I helped him in math). All these things balance out. You can more prime years from Harper and Soto, but you have to give twice as many years as Bregman and Alonso. In the case of Lindor, here are my key inputs: He's hit well since he returned from injury, so I see no performance issue. He's averaged 158 GS over the past 4 years, so I see little l/t injury risk. He's averaged a consistent 6.0 bWAR over those 4 years, so I see no near-term aging risk. At a discounted $22M, I see him as a relative bargain compared to last years FAs. I'm not concerned about the loss of Mayer. If we have Arias, Lindor & Durbin for the next 4+ years, Mayer would have no slot. I'd gladly wager he'll have a higher bWAR next year than Bregman, Alonso or Schwarber. And he is at the position that needs the highest upgrade.
  6. JoeBrady
    Eyanson has a 4.0 BB9 in AA and Phillips has a 7.2 BB9 in A+. I like them well enough, but 3 years of a 2x AS catcher is going to cost 2 top-50 prospects ++. IMHO.
  7. JoeBrady
    It is still relative to the talent and total cost. The three guys you mentioned will cost us a lot of prospects. And by the third arb year, will likely cost more than Lindor's discounted price,
  8. JoeBrady
    Witt only has 4 years left before the opt-out. That gives him $63M in excess, on top of his $31M salary, for a total of $94M a year of value? On Neto, it might depend on where they are pulling their WAR values from. I used bWAR which is more generous with Neto. Neto has more DRS over the past two seasons and Witt does far better with OAA and FRV. I wouldn't challenge either methodology, but it is worth noting that Neto's RF/9 is 4.09 while Witt is at 3.66.
  9. JoeBrady
    That's all relative. In a perfect world, you would go after guys like Harper, who should be prime for half of his seasons. But most FAs don't give you that option. No matter what you do, there will be a deferred acquisition cost. Harper is still signed to age 38, Bogaerts to age 40 or so, Soto to age 40. TBH. I hardly even consider Lindor's contract that big a drag.
  10. JoeBrady
    I see no reason to fear a quick decline by Lindor any more than Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber, etc. In fact, imho, Lindor will out-perform them.
  11. JoeBrady
    I see him in the Fitts/Dobbins class of pitcher. If you want some fun, look at his last 7 starts (ignoring the 7/9 start) and the stats are amazing. I could see someone trading for him in the hopes of landing a future #5 on the cheap.
  12. JoeBrady
    You don't to attend if you don't want to. I'm from NY, so maybe it's different, but we have a parade for everyone. Irish or Italian, black or white, Caribbean day or Puerto Rican, Catholic or Jewish. I'd rather celebrate everything than celebrate nothing.
  13. JoeBrady
    If it was me, I'd go with the flow. If Bello's head is in a place where he likes being a bulk reliever, I'd have one of my lesser RPs open every single game, based on matchups. Moran seems like a guy that would relish the challenge of being an opener.
  14. JoeBrady
    Colorado also doesn't trade, and seems to fear making mistakes. People/teams like that are difficult to deal with since they want the counterparty to overpay to cover the fear of losing. Teams like the As are use to dealing.
  15. JoeBrady
    I come back to this all the time. If we want to obtain a player we like, we have to give up a player the other team likes. Even Rule 5 guys, which teams give up for nothing, have the potential to be pros.
  16. JoeBrady
    The AAV for this year is only ~$17M. And we have a little room next year. But the bottom line is, any addition is likely to cost us money.
  17. JoeBrady
    I'd be shocked if the Rockies did that.
  18. JoeBrady
    Has Fred started his 'Fire Tracy' thread yet?
  19. JoeBrady
    I had not realized, until recently, that a good friend of mine had grown up on a farm. When you grow up in the Bronx, you hardly know what a farm is. But some of my gang came from Ireland, and my friend had grown up milking cows (yes, drinking raw milk), taking stuff to the market. I've also heard interesting multi-generational stories of families expanding their farms a few acres at a time when neighbors had kids with no interest in living the farm life. Interesting stuff.
  20. JoeBrady
    That could switch day to day. They are #11 in Py W/L, and only 1.5 games out of the playoffs. And they are easier to improve since all they need are a couple of BP arms and another #4/5 SP.
  21. JoeBrady
    But I really don't think the Mets are taking on more bad contracts, especially for guys they have no use for. You might be able to talk them into gambling on KC or Bello.
  22. JoeBrady
    The idea remains that, if we wanted to sign guys until they were 36-37, we shouldn't object to trading for guys until they are 36-37. Or from a more philosophical perspective, any player that plays at the level of the guys I mentioned, are either signed until age 36-37, or free agents to be, or unavailable, or prohibitively expensive.
  23. JoeBrady
    I'm not sure why Sandoval is a bullpen guy. And there is also Bello to consider, even as inconsistent as he is.
  24. JoeBrady
    My guess is that Witt has excess value of ~ $160M. Neto has an excess vale of maybe $100M. I'd rather add Neto and save half my farm.
  25. JoeBrady
    I'd be shocked if they took either one. That gains them nothing.
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