JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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Suarez-Early-Tolle-Bello-Bennett.
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Because he is unlikely to outplay them over the course of the season.
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We don't have enough SPs for that.
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I hope he's on the phone with his agent yelling at him. I'm never sure how these things work, but even without the injury, I see no way he gets any more service time this year, and maybe not next year. And I am not sure how seriously he takes this.
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Nice AB by Narvaez. That was about 5 minutes of fouling off pitches. Hopefully, that HR gets Duran off the schneid. No one in the history of the world has figured out how slumps turn around. And good play on the DP by Contreras. After stepping on the bag, I thought for sure he was going to throw to 2nd and allow the runner back to 1st. And finally Ceddanne made a tough catch look easy. His fielding has been off this year.
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IMO, they recognize that the idea of rotating everyone, is helping no one. I think the idea of leading off Duran, every day, is the best l/t solution.
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I'm okay with some small variance. But as I've posted before, if Story, Duran and Duran had their 2025 OPS, then we'd be tied for 8th in OPS. Those three, plus Crochet & Bello, is where 90% of the problem is. FWIW, you can do the same exercise with Crochet & Bello. If we substitute their 2025 ERAs for their 2026 ERAs, our new ERA would be 3.32, good for 4th in MLB. And I know that some guys will always go sideways, but I see no reason to pretend that this isn't the problem, or to pretend that Bichette and Alfonso is the solution.
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Only if you have 2026 in mind. Philly has already spent $236M in 2027, and we spent $180M. And they spent $172M in 2030 (mostly for 37 year old players) while we have only a $110M obligation. These things matter.
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Only if one thinks Duran won't have positive regression.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Passing on Bregman resulted in us acquiring Suarez & Durbin. Things could change, but right now, I'd much rather have Suarez & Durbin. -
Downgrade three positions all with one move?
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Do they? I looked at the top-30 players in fWAR from 2023-2025. Disregarding moves from LF/RF, I see Betts, that's all.
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Then that assumes that you were okay with prioritizing DH over the infield?
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How long would the crocs last? Everyone in Chicago would be wearing crocodiles boots within a week.
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It's more my accounting need to be logical. There can be no doubt that the reason for our slow start is a combination of Story, Duran, Anthony, Crochet and Bello. And almost no doubt that Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, Marte, Suarez or Paredes would've made would've made any improvement relative to their acquisition cost.
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My guess is that Tek doesn't even want the job. He's been in a supporting role for 12-13 years. If he wanted to become manager, he'd have left a long time ago.
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That was such an utter disaster. Crawford, at his best, was an Ellsbury close, and you don't normally need two of those. And Youkilis was one of the best 1Bs in BB, and they wanted to re-convert him to a 3B at the age of 32. Choice #1 should've been Beltre. Choice #2, if they felt the need to let Beltre go, should've been Headley. And choice #1 for LF should've been Willingham, who Oakland got for nothing.
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Surprised? We have fans that thought that Devers was grossly overpaid, untradeable, but traded for peanuts, and shocked that we traded those future peanut stars. All in the same paragraph. Their favorite Red Sox are whomever we just got rid of.
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Fair enough. But I feel strongly enough that I'd put a fair-sized wager on it. Similar career OPS, with Duran being 5 years younger, having a much higher EV this year, being a 30 SB guy, and IMO, should be playing LF for us.
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You'd have preferred Bregman over Suarez + Durbin?
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If we even offered to pick up his salary, Krall would drive him to Boston himself. I see no way he out-performs Duran going forward,
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Is there a significance or meaning to that?
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He doesn't have any ABs today.
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Eaton is not as good an offensive player either. He has 2 HRs in 240 ABs with a 70/18 K/W. Extrapolated to 600 ABs, that's 5 HRs and a 175/45 K/W. In 544 career ABs, Durbin has 12 HRs and a 66/40 K/W. I don't think that's particularly close.
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IMHO- 1-We were unlikely to do better, relative to cost. Right now, Durbin has a 0.4 bWAR. Bregman has a 0.6 at a cost of ~$30M. Marte has a 0.3 at a cost of $18M and possibly Tolle and Early. Paredes has a cost of $9M and probably Abreu, though we'd have likely gotten something else. There really weren't many attractive options out there. 2-FWIW, I am not at all disappointed in Durbin. His 0.4 is respectable for approximately 20% of the season. And he has a 10/9 K/W in his past 22 games. IMO, that's what leads to future success.
