drewski6
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Everything posted by drewski6
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Thats not measurable over a sample of 1. How can you prove that 25% chance to make the playoffs was so off?
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Theyll get a solid offer, the real question is can we get to a decent chance to make the playoffs this year by the deadline and/or can we reasonably expect a competitive team next year.
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Im not saying never build through the farm again , because building through the farm the last bunch of years has not been fun. But it does take away some of the appeal away to trade for prospects.
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I hear ya.
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Is all the food in the broken fridge spoiled or is there a chance that something in there may be salvaged?
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If the red sox have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next, that means they have a 50.5% chance of making the playoffs in either year, so it will be hard to prove I was so off if they make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs both years, that would imply that they overcame something that I said was approx 8-10% possible, which is more appropriate for you to eventually shove in my face , but still, things that have an 8% chance of happening still happen. In fact, they happen every day.
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Im blaming the rest of the team, not Contreras.
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What we agree: Contreras has been really good this year, he will likely drop off next year but still be good Who cares that the rest of the offense cant get their act together and we still are an overall noodle bat team and will likely miss the playoffs as a result? Probably Contreras, the other players on teh red sox, the mangers/execs, fans. My point is simple. The red sox bad offense has me sweating. The fact that one of the few offensive bright spots is 34 and Joe Brady is making all these points about how age driven drop-offs are so pervasive/consistent......well that doesnt exactly having me sweat less. If we're gonna miss the playoffs this year, Id rather our top offensive contributors be 24. Not to imply that we dont have Abreu and Cedanne doing well with more of their careers in front of them.
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If we play .500 ball between now and the deadline , adn we are looking like long shots to make the playoffs at the deadline, do you take calls on Contreras? My points: 1) Contreras has been awesome for what we pay him and what it costs to acquire him, but his age is partly why he was available in the first place and why his prospect cost (trade cost) wasnt super high 2) For all the bad luck we've had, Contreras fighting off father time so well belongs in the "things that went our way" category Also - it stinks in a way because the rest of the team has struggled and if we fall out of it by the deadline, we may cash out. Not because he stinks or hasnt worked out but because thats generally what you do with 34 yr old contributors on bad teams. Im not sure next year is going to be grand either.
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But they dont have money coming off the books after this year, Im sure the next FA class is lackluster and Im not sure how they get good enough quick enough. I would argue they have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next year. If Contreras continues to do what he has done this year all year, and slightly falls off next year but still be very good .....Good on him. Thats great. Not saying he'll hurt the team next year. But Im saying its a little lucky that hes fought off father time like this. Look at Joe Bradys analysis hes like the only player improving older than 32. Theres some luck in that. And hes really helped. so all the ppl screaming about the terrible luck we've had this year......
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If the Yankees were in last place, they maybe would consider trading Aaron Judge. Im not sure who is saying Contreras is done. When I pointed out his age, Im saying that our offense could get worse as easily as it could get better. Cuz Cedanne might fall back to .700 OPS and Contreras age could cause him to wear as the season progresses. My point isnt that I hate Contreras or the move, its that Im not sure we are going to turn it around in time for Contreras to be contributing in a postseason capacity. If you pick up a 34 yr old for 2 yrs and miss the playoffs both years.....Is more my point.
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Im not knocking the deal to get Contreras, just that as bad as our offense has been: a) one of our best bats is up there in years and b) we dont have to hit against our pitching, instead its a series of 5-10 ERA pitchers who we make look sub 3 ERA guys time and time again. Contreras age is why we were able to get him. Its worked out for sure. But hes probably not going to stay at this level for long.
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The only argument one can make against the Contreras move being great is that hes 34, 35 next year and if the team doesnt start winning soon, this year could be shot. At which point he could become a trade chip at hte deadline this year, if we fall too far out of it ,but I dont think they would do that. If the team make the playoffs this year, hes a great add, or at least as great of an acquisition as getting a 1-2 yr contract attached to an old player can be.
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This doesnt bode well for Contreras going forward.
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My Yankees fan friends point to the lack of deadline action. More like an inability to close deals or go get the guy. I told my Yankee fans we could be good this year with a couple of moves this offseason and they laughed at me and I look like a fool.
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Similarities between the disappointing Bruins and disappointing Red Sox are there for sure
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Right where we want them 😆
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Trevor Story Headed To Red Sox's Injured List
drewski6 replied to Steve Drumwright's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That so tracks! -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
drewski6 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We dont deserve the variteks :( -
throw in breslow
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Bello and Durbin for Devers right now, $0 eaten. Easy yes.
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Dustin May and Durbin* ANd yes, I never wanted to trade Devers nad never saw him as a bad contract
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
drewski6 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
At some point, and I hate pulling this lever, it becomes not wanting to give up too many years of control. We are likely to lose one on Early and Tolle, do we want to start the clock on Arias? -
Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make
drewski6 replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So, maybe 4th yr of actual rebuild but maybe 5-6 yrs of frustration as those 2 things arent exactly the same. I could get behind this.
