drewski6

Depending on righty or lefty on the mound last year, we had either Narvaez (0/8) or Cedanne (0/10) hitting fifth. The guys hitting below them (6,7,8,9) was like Eaton, Sogard, Romy (vs righties), Duran (vs lefties)....Not great. The top 4 wasnt particularly great either and included 2 guys no longer here (Bregman, Refsnyder) and one guy who isnt expected to get much PT (Masa). The only returning offensive player , who is projected to have a big role this year, who did really anything with the bat in the series was Story. Hope he stays healthy and NO IKF is not good insurance here, lol. Because if you replace Story with IKF in that series, scoring 0 runs in 3 games combined becomes a real possibility. This team flubbed at the plate against the Yankees injured pitching staff. The bar I was at cleared out after the 4th inning in game 3, when the yanks hung a crooked number because eveyone but me knew we didnt have it to come back. I stuck around like a sucker and watched the year ended on a whimper just like the previous 3. No fight. I know there were injuries, I know the team is different. But dont tell me that the offnse that finished the year was fine. The only dangerous hitter was Story. You wanna talk about Duran dropping the ball? How about Cedanne going 0/10? Okay Bregman out and Contreras in. We'll call that a wash. But at the end of the day, this year, you have like 4-5 bats (again), and its very unlikely all will be healthy next year playoffs and again we're likely to see a lineup that falls off after like the first 3-4 batters. And I understand that this offense, at full strength or even minus a couple injuries, is like middle of the pack and not like dead last in baseball. I understand that. But are we trying to win postsseason series? Because last year, the offense wasnt strong enough to win a series because the bar of what is acceptable goes up when you are trying to win playoff series. And we turned around focused mostly on upgrading the pitching. We are going to need one of three things for a deep run, either a) very good injury luck b)internal breakouts c) in season acquisitions. Not implying that we'll need all 3. Its okay because I do agree that you look around the league and you see teams that need stuff to break in their favor to win a championship (you almost always do). Nobody is throwing in the towel (except maybe Fred). But all Im asking is dont gaslight me by trying to tell me that offense was not a problem last year. And dont say that Im a "chicken little" when I have said the sox are the 5th-6th best team in baseball which is better/higher than any power rankings/standing projections that Ive seen. Dodgers Yankees Mariners Mets Red Sox Braves Jays Tigers Cubs Phillies Orioles Astros Brewers Athletics Guardians Padres Rangers Royals Reds Giants Rays Pirates Dbacks (Carroll injury, ouch) Twins White Sox Marlins Cardinals Angels Nats Rockies

Okay. The team that entered the playoffs had no hope of scoring enough runs to win a playoff series last year.

Not a lock, just that I think they are most likely to win. Havent seen something by fangraphs to the contrary, but I do see that their projected standings are only like 1-2 games against other AL teams.

Ive seen plenty of neutral / no dog in the fight sources predict fourth place. Its not chicken little. Its not optimistic, but Ive seen it too many times to call it out as nonsensical. Still, smart money is on third because most likely outcomes are: Yanks, Red Sox, Jay, Orioles, Rays Yanks, Jay, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays Yanks, Orioles, Rred Sox, Jays, Rays Yanks, Jay, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays Not saying we cant come in first (or last), just saying that to me, the four final ALE standings presented above are more liely than any other outcome, and 2/4 of those have us in 3rd vs 1/4 in first and 1/4 in second. Just law of averages. If you flip 2 coins, you are most likely to get one heads and one tails (because 2/4 outcomes for 1 ofeach (HT, TH) vs 1/4 for HH and 1/4 for TT)

The offense that ended the year last year, was not fine. It was pathetic. However, that was after injries to Roman, Mayer, Bregman (even though he ame back, he came a different player), no durbin, Casas. I think we should expect some injuries, not as bad as lat year, and whether or not we will be "fine" entering next playoffs will depend on injuries, in-season acquistions, and what one personally means by "fine". Of course, fine offense for a playoff team is a higher bar. Because if going into the playoffs you say offense is fine , I would think that means can keep up wth most other playoff teams.

To be clear, I only meant that with the contreras acquisition - it feels to me that we are comparable to tier 2 MLB teams, with a half step on most of them (Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Cubs) and had we not aquired Contreras, the team would feel more like a bottom T2 team and the teams that we would be comparable to (while having an advantage over) would be like the Astros, Brewers, Rangers, Royals..... And this doesnt imply that we are a contreras injury away from being where we sould had we never got contreras, because the tiers are based on going into the season with no attrition but with future attrition expected

Honestly, its hard for me to see this team trade any of Duran, Cedanne, Roman, Abreu and get better , which is probably why we still have all 4.

Durans go way up if you play him in CF though.

I think its cuz Duran has a higher % of PAs vs lefties. Duran had an .850 vs righty OPS last year. Understand Abreu has a higher HR rate, but Duran gets 15 triples to Abreus 0, so thats the equiv of 12 extra HRs from a slg perspective. I love em both dont get me wrong, but I think that people who think of Duran as expendable overlook the doubles and triples. I think Duran will lead the team in RBIs this year and I think hes a better choice to hit 3rd than RA (at least vs righties, vs lefties you can make a case to even sit Duran).

They wouldnt, except maybe if a lefty was on the mound. I was just wondering if Abreu had a higher OPS because he faced almost exclusively righties. If someone has to sit against a righty because everyone is healthy, for me , in a game 7 situation, I prob do put Contreras at catcher. I certainly wouldnt take my 3 hitter out. But >90% someone will be hurt, so im happy to have the options/depth/versatility.

Abreu platooning vs Duran not platooning? Anthony granted, but lets see it full season. Duran is not superfluous on this team. He'll hit third most nights.

One thing about Bregman that gets overlooked but applies to Contreras also is that they are both bilingual. I think bilingual guys can really help a clubhouse/chemistry

And if that comes to fruition and Casas, Duran, Abreu all have similar OPS and all are healthy and its game 7 of ALCS, Contreras might catch for a single game.

I think the Red Sox are at or near the top of the tier 2 MLB teams. WIthout Contreras, we may lose an entire tier and be more comparable to the tier 3 teams (Rangers, Royals, Astros Reds)

My uncle at 73 is still working and has a new girlfriend, and travels , and works out and still looks great. My father was in the dementia nursing home at 73. When I meant that Contreras has aged, I did not mean relatively. He inarguably has aged very well. Hes good value at 17m, which is why we had to give up value to trade for that contract (as opposed to it being salary dumped to us). Thats very rare for a 34 yr old to have surpluss value on a multi-year at 17.5 AAV. More power to him, good for him. Really, all I meant was that hes 34 and no longer playing the position he played in his prime. And I may have over-atrributed the positional switch to age.

Good post, I think the only thing I would point out is that by #1 , I think you mean: a better bat who plays 2b,3b, or ss and not just "a better bat". I also think thats number of players in all of baseball is single digits. I think people are undervaluing 2025 Duran. He had a lot of doubles and triples last year.

I expected it to drop to the average of his '22,'23'24 seasons, maybe a tick under due to his age. It dropped more. It also seemed like the baseball universe was no longer considering him a catcher. I dont think its cray to say that contreras has aged significantly. You aint getting him for that package, with the cards eating money, if hes prime Contreras.

Hard to compare because WAR gives Bregman too much of a positional edge. Offensively, I can see it. I can see Contreras having more RBIs or more offensive WAR. When I said that Contreras has aged more than Bregman that was a lot because Bregman is still playing 3b and is 2 yrs younger. If the order of operations were different. Lets say we signed Ranger first, then failed to ink Bregman, then traded for Contreras (so flip the dates of the contreras and suarez acquisition) then people would be saying pivot even more than they are saying it now. Its a pivot to sign Ranger on the heels but it would be inarguably a pivot if it was corner infielder/bat acquisition on teh heels of Bregman signing with the cubs. I have a hard time saying great pivot to Ranger. I think we had the best rotation in baseball before we signed Ranger. I would have no issue saying great pivot to Contreras (if you flipped the dates of the contreras and ranger acquisitions).

I did make the mistake at looking at OPS vs OPS+. Could be that Contreras decline is OPS was due to the league taking another step towards becoming a pitcher's era and not him being another year older.

I think it is very disrespectful to say that Duran is a worse overall OF'er than Cedanne, unless you mean strictly defensively. But I dont prioritize defense over hitting, personally. There is a reason why Duran keeps leading this team in extra base hits and why he has more trade value than Cedanne despite less control.

Defense is just higher on your priority list. I want my defense to not be bad. I want my hitting to be great. Its fine, no disrespect intended....But in a Duran vs Cedanne battle, I can see how we are on opposite sides. Duran is my #2 untouchable behind only Crochet.

MVP: Id trade Duran for prospects Drewski (to MVP): I dont get the Duran disrespect Moonslav: How is it disrespectful to want to get Kmarte for him, nobody said trade Duran for prospects (except MVP)

I trust you realize that our 2025 MVP's name ends with a "shea" sound?

I thought I had read it isnt in the plans at all right now, but that doesnt mean it wont be in the plans should Narvaez get hurt or struggle.

Fair point. But the point Im trying to make is the reason why when we acquired Contreras , we considered him a first baseman. Why he didnt catch last year. My only point is this is a lot because of Contreras age. There are other reasons too. But a 28 yr old Contreras is catching somewhere in MLB, and doing it at an all start level. This started with people calling me crazy for saying Contreras has aged significantly. You didnt disagree, you implied that sure Contreras is further aged than people 3 yrs younger that never had to catch, sure - but his positional fit and ST contract make you thankful we got him over 5 yrs of Alonoso. A comment I didnt see an issue with. Look, if everyone is telling me (and I dont mean to group all of your positions together) but if people are telling me that Im wrong that Contreras has aged too much to catch.....This is great news. If we're in a game 7, I can see Narvaez being the odd man out. Not saying its likely or will happen because I dont know who will be healthy at that point in time, but I think versatility and depth are good and if Contreras can still catch thats great news. I do believe that if he can catch, he should (at least sometimes)