In most cases, yes. And btw , I lean yes on Saberhagen too. But Johans 5 year stretch might be the best ever 5 year stretch for a pitcher not in HOF. And someone has to have that, i get that. If Johan were to be in, there would be another guy who had the best 5 year stretch of all pitchers not in hall.
But Johan had finished in top 5 cy young voting , 5 years running and was heading for a sixth when career ruining injuries started. Saberhagen had close to as many dominant years but they were spread out and he had the benefit of not getting so hurt so young.
I understand the danger of scaling for health and luck. But I do think that sometimes , in rare cases, you have to contextualize it. If A dude came up at 22, and was the best pitcher until age 29 and died in a plane crash, he'd prob get in. In rare cases, I am willing to consider what a pitcher/player did over a span even if the longevity isnt there. And for some of those guys, I tend to think they are underrated. Only the ones who were dominant in that stretch but something happened outside of their control that zapped their career short.
I would prefer an A++ player for 8 years than an A- player for 20 years.
I would consider a guy like Johan underrated in my eyes but that doesnt mean I think hes a no doubt HOF'er. I just get more jazzed about peak upside/dominance than longevity. But not as much as I use to. I have recently started givng more props to the dudes who were very good for very long because thats just as hard to do as be completely dominant in a short window.