drewski6

Also , lets not lose the context. This was presented as "the problem". Not "a problem" but the problem. That one fan (Fred), on this forum, and maybe some others like him (me) - think that the devers trade was a salary dump. Oh, the horror. Meanwhile, weve blown the budget and are still predicted for third place and a first round exit. We failed to land literally all of our top options (hitting). We've just been willing to fall back to option B, then C, then D, then E when it comes to hitting. Next year we'll hear "they made a big add last season in Suarez, how dare you ask for a big bat. You are greedy." Meanwhile, I try to pick up the bill literally every time I go out. The only time in my life Ive ever been called greedy is here. My friends and fam would laugh their butts off if they heard that. But here multiples time, by multiple people - RS FANS ARE GREEDY (including me in the lot). And its just more "be grateful for third place" . Sure we've spent the money. But we're still a consensus 3rd place team. Well guess what? Im not grateful for this consensus third place team and Im not going to be gaslit into thinking that fan expectations or fan (baseball) literacy are the problem. Im sick of people acting like this team has been succesfull in recent past. You want greedy? Hop over to a celtics forum and watch them complain about the celtics. Or hop over to a dodgers forum and watch them complain. This team has been frustrating for a while. Im not sure the RS, as currently constructed, have a problem. I think they probably do that we'll struggle to score all year and it will be our downfall, but Im open for a breakout internally or an external add or jsut flat being wrong and we end up making a deep run with a mediocre offense. But Im not over here locked into a belief that we will stink. I told Fred years ago - going on record about how you think this team will stink and repeating it ad nauseum is how you end up rooting against your team, and I wont fall into that trap. Maybe we'll be better than where the power rankings and vegs odds place us, and Ill be happy if so. But judging by where we stand right now, based on how we look today, it looks like Breslow spent a lot of money and prospects to turn a third place team into a third place team.

In a "what would you prefer" question, I get to determine which I would prefer and its Devers and its not close. It may be close for you, and I respect that, but I think the whole notion of chasing max efficiency is flawed. A strategy of maximum efficiency is overly simplistic. A team of 4 WAR players making $2m each has a 2:1 WAR/$(millions) ratio. But thats 104 WAR total on a $52m payroll. This team loses to a 150WAR team with a 200m payroll. A 10 WAR player making 30m is more valuable than a 3 WAR player making 1M, becaue that 10 WAR player is truly elite and a true difference maker. But I dont even want to lean this heavily on WAR (which I also think is dumb). I think baseball team building is more than just accumulating WAR. I think a big bat changes everything about this team more than just whatever WAR that player adds. I think Suarez is a luxury, I think IKF is a bad fit (I dont want an noodlebat infield of Mayer, IKF, Durbin - so I dont think he adds a ton of insurance), and I think Durbin is a nice piece but there was a reason why he was option #8. A bat worth going out and getting (like Devers) is different than an "i like this guy because hes solid and we didnt have to give up much" (Durbin). This team just hasnt gone out and gotten a bat, an elite bat, and Id do it and Id certainly give up this package to do it.

Devers, not even close.

Yes, but unlike some, I dont think Breslow has really cemented himself in the role. He needs to (and I want him to) feel some heat. A GM who is complacent with a non top 10 offense needs to be run out of town. People understand that competition is good for players. You want players feeling the heat. For similar reasons , I want Breslow to feel some heat. Last seasons deadline inactivity was absurd and sunk us. Bloom got canned for the same reason. Breslow shouldnt get a pass. Theres always a next man up when it comes to GMs (more so than players).

I dont think the pitching has enough room for ins-season / breakout player improvement to move the needle vs where we are right now. I think Kutter will pitch very well and bump a pitcher who also pitches very well. I think the lack of elite bats will be our ceiling and you cant pitch and defense around that.

Agreed 100%. Im glad someone pointed this out, cuz Vegas always knows. I wouldnt bet one way or the other, because I dont gamble. Not like moral issue with it, I just get bored. Unless its craps because then its social. Or like if Im at a buddys and everyone is throwing 100 on the game I will too , but thats again more of a social thing.

I enjoy the sheer number of moves and I hope that continues. Im just here to kill time during work and non-stop trades/roster churn gives us something to analyze. Im here for fun. Next I want to see some fights, got some in the NBA recently for like the first time in decades.

For me over vs under is hard because on one hand, I do think a step back is an instant sack of Breslow so I think he'll feel the heat and try to keep improving and Durbins .711 OPS (hooooooray now we have our 3b "of the future" with no place to put a real bat "in the future"), I dont think fixes all our probs. I do like the player, I do like the trade. But Im not going to jump and down that one more positional slot is now filled for the next 5 years with a 5'7, .711 OPS even though I do think that .711 has a sadly decent chance of being one of our top 3. But on the other hand , I really dont trust Breslows ability to get deals across the finish line , for players he wants, mid-season. Our track record is we do a great job of identifying the players we need, then showing a complete ineptness at bringing them on board. I dont know, Im no even sure I care much. Im here for enjoyment and I get plenty of it watching Breslows dysfunction. And at least he keeps us in the headlines, which is what really matters here. Im not even sure I want him sacked, I think I might even want....more Breslow....Like watching him like epic fail at ordering a coffee cuz he doesnt human well. Get this guy a reality show! I dont really care, just keep churning and dont be complacent.

I wouldnt call you a homer for taking the over on a line that that was designed to get 50% of bets on one side and 50% of people on the other.....Plus the people setting this threshold, Im sure, knew what they are doing.

AND we've used a significant amount of trade chips!

I think its fair to be skeptical and not count on players returning from serious injury, but I also think you cant put ever pitcher who is returning from an injury into one category. Personally, I dont play doctor. I ask doctors and hedge. Because I pay them, right? So instead of just assuming 0 from all of them, I would ask the team doctors what I can expect. And if Dr says should be good to go, I would still feel uncomfy if I have 3 guys like that in my rotation and no depth , for sure. So I would be skeptical too. Generally speaking, not this example. Kutter Crawford is f'ing awesome.

Theres not 50-50 betting on future lines, thats not how that works. Its not like they want half the money to come in on yankees winning ws and half coming in against it. NObody is going to take the latter (at lesat not anything close to 50-50) because its like bet 1100 to win 100. Sports gambling is stupid, dont get me wrong. Gambling is for people who arent smart enough to make millions consulting. I get all that. But the fact that if you make a $100 bet on the NYY you win 1000, and same be on red sox you win 1700 - thats more because of a belief that there is more of a chance of yanks winning it all than us. The gap I wouldnt say is insurmountable, I think the spread reflects this. I dont bet because I trust Vegas to know where the line is. The difference isnt huge. But I cant honestly say that I agree that its neck and neck. I chose my position carefully. The Yankee are one full step ahead of us at present. Not 2 giant leaps, not even one giant leap. But I cant say that I believe that we're neck and neck. I would say in 5 game series theyd prob be 65% likely to take the series, of course, depending on who is healthy.

I agree. But Stanton had a .965 OPS last year and 25 HR in half a season, which really, is better than 30 HR in a full season and his wRC+/SLG are better than what we can expect from anyone we have. I got an "LMAO" when I pointed out that hes prob #5 in projected HRs for them and thats a bit scary considering hes higher than anyone we got. They are a scary team and Max Fried is a very good pitcher. I went to check my biases to see if maybe I could be overrating the Yankees or underrating the Red Sox because I believe that its full stupid to build a team any other way than bats first, but Im open to maybe Im underrating how far pitching can carry you. So I was looking at power rankings and the yankees are consistently 2nd or 3rd and for us the highest Ive seen is for us is 6th and the lowest Ive seen for us 11th. I think we can catch them, but I dont think its realistic to present us as practical equals to them at this point in time. I think we are a T2 team and the yankees are one of like 4 or 5 T1 teams.

Its like dodgers - 20%, yanks 10%, Jays 8%, M's 8%, Mets 8%, Braves 7%, Sox 6%, Phils 6%, Cubs 5%, Os 3%...

Right now every major betting site is giving 60% higher payouts to future bets on the red sox to win ws (compared to the yankees) because all of these sites agree the yankees are 60% more likely to win the WS than the red sox are. Its true that lines move, but they dont move this much, and its not like theres billions of dollars in WS future bets in early Feb. The lines havent moved much, and they will eventually, but not as much as you think. The vegas balancing is small, its usually like moving a spread from 4 to 3 because a lot of money came in at one side. Its also kinda rare. Future line like this will barely move due to money coming in. Of course, if the red sox are in the ALCS with a 2-0 game advantage, you wont be able to bet 100 to win 1600 like you can right now for a WS win. So the line will move at some point, but it hasnt yet (at all). The current lines are from paid handicappers who are estimating chances. They could be wrong. Unforeseen stuff like Cole hitting a snag coming back and Judge snapping a leg can happen. But right now, the consensus is the yankees have about 66% better chance to win world series than red sox (its like 10% to 6%). There is a significant gap between the red sox and the best teams in baseball, but we are in the second tier. Baseball is just like that in 2026. A few teams are well out in front. We are not one. We are better than most, however.

If they outscored em in the playoffs series I was wrong to say never a threat. It felt that way, but thats probably because LAD were returning champs, but that shouldnt be considered. I was wrong to say Phils were never a threat and now that you mention it , I do recall them having a chance.

They seek to get 50-50 when the money pours in, thats not whats happening here. And no , the #2 best team and the #7 best team are not close. We are 50-50 to make the playoffs, long shots to win the world series. They are the #2 WS favorites.

USA today, Fangraphs, all 4 major betting sites, Vegas, MLB.COM power rankings all have the yankees ahead of us to enter the season. They are a T1 team, we are a T2 team. We are a good team but they are more likely to get to WS than us by a 2-1 margin

The Phillies had 4 top 30 NL pitchers last year to the dodgers 1 and were never a threat to beat the dodgers.

Ill give you Contreras but hes never done it. But a lot of that is because he was catching. I absolutely will not give you Contreras while you LMAO on Stanton because in 2026, Stanton is much more likely to get to 30. He hit 24 last year in 75 games and hes a stronger person and they are roughly the same age. YOu are doing some twisting and turning ,but you have to because they return a collective 27 homerun seasons to our 0. Max Fried was excellent last year, Rodon isnt as hurt as you think, and Gray isnt young either. According to Vegas: Red Sox are seventh most likely team to win WS, NYY are 2nd.

Schmidt is their #6, I wouldnt bet against Cole and Rodon is minor hurt. Plus they have a lot of hitting. I dont think we're close to them, personally. I do think we're better than the Rangers, Tigers, Guardians, Astros, Orioles. I think us and the Jays have a 1/2 step up on these teams. But I think that we're a full step behind the Ms and Yanks. Doesnt mean we cant finish better, will just need injury luck, an internal breakout, and hopefully a big bat added in-season to replace whoever is slouching/hurt.

Judge, Jazz, Grisham hit 30+ last year, bellinger had 29 last year and has two 30 HR seasons in his past. Stanton got hurt but still has 30 HR pop, in 1/2 season last year he dinged 24. This doesnt include Ben Rice who is expected to have his first 30 HR season this year or Goldschmidt who isnt as washed as you think (but too washed to get to 30). If you add up all the 30 (or more) homerun seasons that the yankees players have had in their past its like 27 total 30 HR seasons (but that does inlcude Goldy, which may be unfair). No player in the red sox organization has ever had a 30 HR season.

I think Henry gets too much blame, and Bloom and Breslow not enough (blame).

I think the Yankees and O's will certainly be considerably better than last year, so you have to factor that in. In fact, USA today placing the Red Sox fourth stated the RS got better but not as much better as the Os who they expect to leapfrog us into third (but its close). The Yankees have a lot of pitchers coming back from injury and return something like 6 30HR threats. To me, we'll see how much the Jays miss Bichette. It will come down to that, if the Tigers keep Skubal, how the Astros look. I do think Harmony's M's and the Yanks are best teams in AL.

USA Today are projecting 84 wins and a fourth place finish in ALE, tied for 7th in AL (with Astros, also behind Detroit and Rangers). That came out today and includes Durbin (ouch). Fangraphs is projecting 84.5 wins and third place in ALE and 5th in AL. (They are consistent with USA today on Red Sox, but lower on O's , Astros and Rangers). MLB.COM power rankings put us 4th in AL but without standings or record. They are the only source that have us over the Tigers of the three. Personally, I think MLB.COM power rankings are closest. I think that we only trail NYY, Toronto, Mariners but we are a significant step behind them at present. I think we are a small step in front of the AL playoff hopefuls (Orioles, Astros, Rangers, Detroit, Cleveland). I think we are over a coin flip to make the playoffs, and that can improve with any of the three a) better injury luck that the other 7 decent-or-better teams in AL b) in-season acquisitions (e.g. big bat at deadline), c) internal breakouts (like Mayer taking a big step).