drewski6

USA Today are projecting 84 wins and a fourth place finish in ALE, tied for 7th in AL (with Astros, also behind Detroit and Rangers). That came out today and includes Durbin (ouch). Fangraphs is projecting 84.5 wins and third place in ALE and 5th in AL. (They are consistent with USA today on Red Sox, but lower on O's , Astros and Rangers). MLB.COM power rankings put us 4th in AL but without standings or record. They are the only source that have us over the Tigers of the three. Personally, I think MLB.COM power rankings are closest. I think that we only trail NYY, Toronto, Mariners but we are a significant step behind them at present. I think we are a small step in front of the AL playoff hopefuls (Orioles, Astros, Rangers, Detroit, Cleveland). I think we are over a coin flip to make the playoffs, and that can improve with any of the three a) better injury luck that the other 7 decent-or-better teams in AL b) in-season acquisitions (e.g. big bat at deadline), c) internal breakouts (like Mayer taking a big step).

Most guys come up relievers get pushed out by failed starters who are still better than the RP prospects at RP'ing. Only rare exceptions (guys who come up relief pitchers, make it to majors and stick as relief pitchers). But if a guy is coming up as a reliever, most of the time that just means "chump" In our case, I suspect very much that we'll have SP overflow into BP. Because we invested in Oviedo and Sandoval and I just cant see the team overlooking that and putting them in AAA or IL just so we can have more actual RP prospects (again, chumps) in the pen (after the big 3 of Chapman, Whitlock (who is a failed SP turned great RP himself) and Slaten). Think like Andrew Miller couldnt make it as a starter but when he became a reliever he was the best reliever. This stuff happens all the time.

Are we sure Siegler is going to make it to the season without having to ride the DFA carousel? I understand the other guy we got in the deal cuz of the lefty splits and Romy being dinged up. Other guy might fill in for Romy, but Im not sure I would keep Siegler on 40 man vs say, Masa

Its what Ive come to expect from Breslow. A lot of bumbling/fumbling/unforced errors but still cobbling together a good (not great) team at the end by just sheer quantity of moves, which I like (well the last part I like). I like the aggression. I like the quantity of moves. I really dislike the roll the same mediocre roster forward year to year because "continuation", its lazy. Too much incumbent advantage in the Bloom years. I like the churn.

Durbin seems like hes a got a few sneaky ways to contribute offensively.

If he, Anthony, and Duran all get to 40 doubles thats power. I know you know this but a lot of people think power is homeruns. Power is more than homeruns. Its driving the ball for extra base hits. When you pull the ball , the point of contact is in front of the plate, vs letting the ball get deep. You can really drive it that way. A lot of people say things like "doubles power" without really understanding what that is, and misuse it as a justification for a weak lineup "when someone says no power, just auto-respond doubles power". But doubles power is an actual something. It comes from early swing decisions, early pitch recognition, not having to sell out for contact, pulling the ball, driving the ball, just with a more line drive swing trajectory. I hate when players go out of their way to not strike out. I dont like that scared approach at the plate. I like attackers, confidence. But I also really like when they arent striking out because they have a good hit tool (actually good at picking up spin early vs waiting until the ball breaks) Sounds like Durbin can be both, and I like that. Because there is a time/place to put the ball in play, and having the legs really helps. But theres also a time (most times) to drive the ball.

Yup. Like Tony Gwynn

Im all about not makig decisions when you dont have to.

It doesnt sound like a lot to me, even for a bench player. 2.0 WAR , which I consider a low-end starting position player / cusp starting position player are getting qualifying offers and like 22m.

Especially if guys like Sandoval/Crawford start on like extended spring training. And Tolle and Early will be up at some point in some role. I agree. The most important thing about our #7,#8 BP pitchers is that they have options to be sent to and fro worcestor. I-90

Are you already including Kutter Crawford in the top 6?

Can I get a Derek Lowe statue too? Is the statue company running a buy-one get-one half off?

For Hugh specifically? I just think these kind of things like "how I view this trade" are kind of unique/personal to the person.

Might make an all-star team or even 2 in his career (Durbin)

No Im not parading Breslow around on my shoulders, naming my daughters after him, because he backed into a MI who was #8 on his list of MIs to acquire that he only got because was cheaper than Zach Neto prospect cost. I will consider building a statue and naming kids/pets to honor Dubrin however.

Thats what I meant. It may not be Mayer sitting vs lefties, it could be Duran or Abreu in which case Romy would DH.

Man when Brez seeks out to correct something like starting pitching need or infielder, he really goes out and gets it seven ways from sunday, huh When the pendulum swings, it swings hard hard A little worried he'll declare infield a surplus and trade 9 of em.

I think its quite likely, I can also see Romy DH'ing vs lefties. Could move a LF'er to RF (Duran or Anthony) and sit Abreu vs LHP (just because theyve done this for years) or sit Duran vs LHP. Not saying they will, saying I dont "know" they'll move Durbin around, but I think its as likely or likelier than any configuration and I think it makes sense and I dont hate it. Its probably likeliest they start the year this way with Durbin bouncing back and forth depending on if Mayer or Romy is in game, but we may never know how they would have started full health (someone could pick up a minor injury in WBC).

with cleats on

I like my Baerga comparison more. Pedey just hit the ball hard and sprayed it around. Baerga was more of a place-the-ball / energy / contributions from his legs guy. Plus I think he played 2b and 3b like Durbin. Granted Baerga at like 5'9 was the tallest of the three (dont believe listed heights).

Nothing that was "decades before moneyball" is relevant today. Even moneyball is not relevant to today (except for the whole zig when they zag aspect of it, which i dont think will ever be dated). Bunting came back with the shift exploitation (years after moneyball) because teams leave massive holes to align themselves to where the hitter naturally tends to hit the ball creating "bunt it to where they are not" opportunities that werent there before the rays revolutionized shift exploitation. All of this was after moneyball (maybe not the movie, but I mean the As team). I do wonder if even this is now dated since like 1 yr ago when they put parameters around how much teams can shift. But change is constant is my point.

Heres a question - does Tony Siegler being 40 man rostered threaten Mickey Gaspar's 40 man spot roster spot?

I dont hate Durbin moving over from 2nd to 3rd so Romy can play second against lefties. I also wouldnt be super surprised if Romy DH'd vs lefties. The one thing I do know, is any decision that the team makes today about who is playing where and who comes out vs lefties....They arent going to marry that decision and it can (and probably will) change as guys get hot/cold , dinged up...

In my MLB the show franchise (video game) its the year 2038 and Bryce Eldridge is winding down a fantastic career. Not sure if that means anything to you (I would assume not)

Putting the 5'7 guy at 3rd and 6'3 guy at 2nd would look/feel weird to me but Im not against it.