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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    On that last statement 1. I assume the author of the quote either forgot Trevor Bauer is a free agent or else he just gives Chapman a higher POS Rating. 2. Next off-season, we could have Chapman, Bauer and Marcell Ozuna all on the market all at once. I eagerly await the rankings.
  2. notin
    BTV gives him a surplus value of $14.4mill, which places him between Braden Montgomery and David Hamilton. Given the Sox have already filled 2b in Pitt, I’d think the Pirates would be more interested in Montgomery. I’m hesitant, despite Ortiz posting 3.0 bWAR in only 135 innings last year…
  3. notin
    It’s not official until MLBTR reports it. That said https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/red-sox-progressing-in-talks-with-aroldis-chapman.html
  4. notin
    Except that he’s only 25 years old and doesn’t even turn 26 until late June. Can’t say that about Fried or Burnes…
  5. notin
    He’s three grades below “Alabama UFO Spotter” on the Reliability Scale…
  6. notin
    Then he’ll just buy the entirety of planet Earth and all his credits and debits should cancel each other out…
  7. notin
    I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?” In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer. Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value. Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill. If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo. A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model. But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now. Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation? Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?
  8. notin
    Matt Boyd to the Cubs. Two years $29mill. Makes you wonder about the going rate for players who are actually expected to pitch…
  9. notin
    I know how to prevent that - trade him to an AL team…
  10. notin
    Probably not Burnes. I see him asking for outrageous money. We’re talking about a player who lost an arbitration hearing after winning a Cy Young Award. Know how you do that? By asking for outrageous money…
  11. notin
    Luis Castillo turns 32 in a couple days and is owed over $72mill over the next 3 years. As his surplus value is (-$6.1mill), this means their valuation of him has him worth about 8 fWAR over those 3 years, or roughly 2.3-2.4 fWAR per year, which was his approximate worth last season. He is NOT undervalued like he was a couple months back when his surplus value was around (-$24mill) or so. If anything, he’s probably a bit overvalued now. A deal of Mayer plus Yoshida is worth about $28mil in surplus value. Even if the Mariners paid $15mill, it’s still most definitely an overpayment by Boston on that model, and probably on every model used by every MLB team ever…
  12. notin
    Want he part of that unanimous vote to let him go?
  13. notin
    Maybe in Seattle. Mayer fits a need and certainly has more potential than Abreu. Not sure Boston is up for that. Witjout checking, I think that deal heavily favors Seattle on BTV…
  14. notin
    As you stated earlier, those same Dodgers voted unanimously to let him go after his re-instatement. despite that he was pitching well. That speaks towards my point about how disliked he really is. I think getting 30 owners to agree to avoid a minimum wage Cy Young winner seems less likely than getting his past coaches and mangers to agree that he’s an insufferable *******. Why would, say, the Dodgers owner care if some random team like the Pirates or A’s, both of whom could easily meet Bauer’s demands, signed this headache they didn’t want anyway?
  15. notin
    $1.5 mill and I’d lay money down he doesn’t finish the season in Boston…
  16. notin
    Per Roster Resource, which admittedly is not official, their infield features Raley/Garver at 1b, Dylan Moore at 3b, and some guy named Ryan Bliss at 2b. I’m not sure Chase Meidroth is an upgrade. Meidroth strikes me as the type of player most teams already have, and the Mariners do have better infield prospects they can use. Yoshida might be an upgrade at DH over Haniger, but only in the durability department, and that’s compromised by his recent surgery. Plus is he really a draw for Asian fans? He’s not Ichiro, Shohei, Darvish or even Daisuke when it comes to being a Japanese icon. Abreu is an upgrade over Robles, as Mariner fans are more likely to see why the Nats let him go then see him continue the pace he set in Seattle. But does that upgrade make this deal worth it when it ignores their weak infield?
  17. notin
    What problems does it solve for Seattle?
  18. notin
    1. Is this fellow worth listening to? Or is this really no different than if some bozo like me started tweeting about how Soto recently started eating clam chowder and replaced the word “very” in his vocabulary with “wicked”? 2. Apartments in Boston? His deal will be longer than a decade and worth over half a billion dollars. Why is he looking to rent? This feels like a desperate attempt to keep this non-story alive…
  19. notin
    They’ll need them all, and more. Most teams easily use 10+ starting pitchers over a 162 game season. Seattle certainly could deal a SP more so than most other teams, but they’re really not likely to unless they want to shed Castillo’s salary, like in this deal.
  20. notin
    Bauer was unpopular enough with fans and media, so it’s not a stretch to assume he was also unpopular with managers, coaches, and players. Every story about Bauer and a coach/manager/player always ends with how disliked he is. Not sure a conspiracy is needed here…
  21. notin
    First of all, it’s not just the “long layoff”; it’s Bauer’s long layoff. And not playing in MLB for a prolonged period is a legitimate concern, despite your phrasing it like I’m talking about Bigfoot.. Some have overcome it, but most (all, actually) don’t carry the same PR stigma. This isn’t the same as Merrill Kelly or Miles Mikolas coming back from an extended overseas tour. Teams might give him a shot had he no baggage. But the combination of the baggage and his extended hiatus plus his age really reduces his ceiling, and if you’re talking a shot at zone of the most disliked players in recent MLB history, is what he likely brings to the table worth it? Not every pitcher can make the last 4 years disappear like Sale and jump back in at age 35 like he was still 28. And Sale was very possibly helped along by an extremely favorable and effective Atlanta system and staff that the Sox don’t have…
  22. notin
    That’s the exact deal 30 teams have been ignoring, except Bauer proposed it without the incentives…
  23. notin
    Seattle has five SPs. Apparently this time of year that’s considered an excess to be deadly from…
  24. notin
    League-wide this happens. If you look at the drafts on B-R.com and count the picks without hyperlinks (the ones without MLB overview pages) from 2010-2015, in the first round alone there are 72 players who never made their debut. 32 of them (44%) were pitchers. And that’s just ones who didn’t debut. Plenty did debut and flopped, like #1 overall pick Mark Appel. Others were not as successful as the players drafted around them. For example, Jameson Taillon was taken at #2 overall, after Bryce Harper and before Manny Machado. He’s had a decent MLB career, but he isn’t going to Cooperstown like the players chosen on both sides of him…
  25. notin
    I thought my answer was clear, too. I’m not convinced Bauer is any better at this point than any other options. So why bother?
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