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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    Hopefully. Rodriguez isnt ranked anywhere yet. But a 19yo raking in A+ is not nothing. Still, I don’t get too worked up over most prospects in A ball. It wasn’t so long ago Miguel Bleis captivated us all…
  2. notin
    Ceddane’s contract is such that he need only average 1 fWAR per year to more than justify it. HEs paid like a long term Kike Hernandez..
  3. notin
    I think of them more like lottery tickets you haven’t scratched. Sure they might be worth millions and solve all your problems. But most likely not…
  4. notin
    Keep them all. They’ll all be needed at some point. And this makes the Priester trade more questionable…
  5. notin
    And throw much harder. In the last 10 years, the average fastball is 3mph faster…
  6. notin
    Losing 60% of your rotation before opening day isn’t, however…
  7. notin
    But at this point in the season, that bad record is self-dependent. Had they won 1 more game against Toronto, for example, Toronto would be a .500 team you didn’t count. Had St. Louis beaten them a couple times, St. Louis would be a team you did count. It’s too early to consider teams over .500 as a metric of anything. One series vs most teams can push them to either side of that benchmark…
  8. notin
    And there are a few key contributors there, headlined by Casas and Duran. Some of the D has been outright bad, but the Sox are 10th in DRS. OAA agrees with your assessment and ranks them 27th. Over much larger samples, I expect these rankings to get much closer to each other…
  9. notin
    Easy schedules still count. KC was under .500 against non-White Sox teams last year, but still made the postseason. Detroit was right there with them…
  10. notin
    And 9 of our first 25 games were started by Sean Newcomb, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins, none of whom were anticipated to be in the opening day rotation…
  11. notin
    I think the Sox might be a bit hesitant to anoint him. Chapman did come in to face the tougher hitters, after all…
  12. notin
    And in the end, isn’t that what it’s all about - saving money?
  13. notin
    Why is Roman Anthony the only OF who “deserves a chance”? Does Anthony deserve a chance to prove he’s the Sox best OF more than Duran “deserves a chance” to prove 2024 was not a fluke season? Or does Anthony serve a chance more than Rafaela deserves a chance to prove he’s the Sox can maintain his 2.8 bWAR season? Or is Anthony somehow more deserving than Wilyer Abreu? The lure of “potential” with top prospects far too often makes fans short-sighted with regards to their own players. A simple 0 for 4 day gets too many fans calling for a change. Fortunately teams are quite often more patient
  14. notin
    The time to trade Duran was months ago, when he was fresh off an 8 fWAR season. Since he still makes very little, he’s still tradable. But nowhere near what he was worth in November. I wouldn’t trade anyone right now. 20 year old Anthony is NOT the fix for weak starts by Casas and Duran…
  15. notin
    And play where? Rafaela to a utility/bench role hurts the D. Ive argued “he bats ninth and if sent the problem,” but really that’s just “well, someone has to be worst.” But right now Rafaela is contributing defensively. He’s not the weak link on this team…
  16. notin
    Yeah but I’m not as into platooning as you, and (almost?) NEVER believe in a platooning solution where players change position…
  17. notin
    Who would the Sox bench to replace Anthony anyway? Duran? Not likely. Rafaela? Why? He’s not the problem with the offense and his 0.5 bWAR is right there with Campbell’s. Abreu? Ummm.. no. Devers? I think it’s going to take an injury to get Anthony up now anyway. Or a trade, but I doubt we see one of those for a while (barring inconsequential minor leaguer trades)…
  18. notin
    Screw the last year of control. If Anthony is worth it, extend him. Just because he wants to go Year to tear doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a price…
  19. notin
    Casas has been horrendous to start but hitters with a 24% line drive rate and a .222 BABIP don’t stay down forever. His 24% K rate is his career norm but what’s a bigger concern is his BB% cutting in half…
  20. notin
    I’m not worried about #9 hitting Rafaela (OPS+ 63) nearly as much as I am leadoff hitting Jarren Duran (OPS+ 81)…
  21. notin
    Wins in April mean as much as wins in September, agreed. Talk about the third wild card in April, not so much…
  22. notin
    What’s the Sox Magic Number?
  23. notin
    And Boras was his agent last year, too. If Bregman gets the $160mill offer, which I assume is over 6 years since they compared it to Matt Chapman, that means he would get $200mill over 7 years. Certainly a good deal. But if he stays in Boston all 3 years, he could equal that with a 4 year $80mill deal. Will that offer be there at age 34? Hard to say. Christian Walker is 3 years older than Bregman (almost to the day) and got a 3 year $60mill contract this off-season. That $40mill AAV is tough to walk away from. If Bregman opts out, it makes more sense after 2026…
  24. notin
    It’s weird to list out 4 Red Sox, give Travis Shaw second billing, and then look at the list and think “ yeah, seems about right.”
  25. notin
    That’s because they’re all breaking on him…
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