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Throws hard. Works cheap. His problem is he couldn’t find the strike zone if he bought a house in it and moved there..

Hopefully one or both are locked up long before then…

To get Casas?

I don’t think they will be including any top pitching prospects. Casas himself is the motivating acquisition for them. And Herrera is the big get for the Sox…

And how much guaranteed?

Yes because the Red Sox love waiting 4-5 years for pitchers with 8 figure AAVs to return to form. Just ask Chris Sale…

It’s a much higher risk for pitchers. And even greater for pitchers who have already had one TJ surgery…

I don’t think it’s a matter of seeing more of him. I think it’s a matter of mitigating risk in terms of years. I think 6 years is the absolute maximum, and a 3-5 year extension is more likely. (I’m assuming 2025 is already taken care of, so everything starts in 2026.) I don’t see how what he would earn in free agency is relevant; the entire point is to pay him less and Crochet’s goal is to get earlier security. And as Crochet has openly stated he wants an extension, I would guess these free agent prices won’t ever come up beyond this thread. The Sox aren’t desperate here because of what they traded to get him; it was fair compensation for 2 years of an elite talent. Crochet likely isn’t desperate either, but again, has expressed willingness, which could mean he knows he won’t be getting paid like a free agent. I think they get him extended before opening day, and it will be in the 3-5 year range. Money is tough to determine; I don’t know what Crochet will settle for. But I would throw out a range in the $22-25mill AAV, presumably with the AAV going down as the years went up. I am not going to speculate on team options, but they are more likely than opt outs, because it’s the Sox looking for protection whereas Crochet should be looking for security. If the Sox added one or two very high AAV team options, it might make sense for both sides. I’m talking $26-30mill AAV team option(s).

Robert Stock is back, making him the first player acquired by multiple CBO’s since Rich Hill…

Hey Romy was second on the Sox in exit velocity last year. But I think he bulked it up by getting a disproportionate number of at bats vs LHP…

I question the Cards moving Herrera. Maybe they like Pedro Pages more than I do? Of course getting Casas pre-arb should make it worthwhile for them. I’ve heard that rumor with Crawford instead of Winckowski. I’d prefer dealing Winckowski, what with all the rebuilt arms in the Sox rotation…

On the 40 man, we have 11 SPs counting Sandoval, who. is not long for the 40 man once he can be moved. And I want to say they have 13 relief pitchers. Those numbers could change to 10 and 14 if Fulmer replaces Sandoval…

No other team had 5 prospects in the top MLB.com top 50, so no one else could have. But would other teams if they were in the Sox position? Definitely.

Of course for a long time, some folks debated the existence of that $300 mill offer and assumed the Sox stopped at $200mill, especially after Mookie said he never received a $300 mill offer. Maybe he never did, but it looks like he did get one close to if not in the $290-299 mill range. Depending on the years, that AAV could be very close to the one he settled on…

One - and I think big - reason the Sox fall short on extensions is historically they don’t seem to get the process started until the player is a year or two away from free agency. How often do they attempt to buy out all three arbitration years like other teams do? Granted, it’s more often done by small market teams, but if you’re pretending to be a small market teams, do it right. Lester. Bogaerts. Even Sale. All one year from free agency. I think the Mookie thing started in 2017 or 2018, making it a rare exception if true. Beyond that, is Whitlock the only time they tried? Of course they did not have this option with Crochet. Thsts why I like seeing the change with Anthony, Campbell and Mayer. The earlier the extension, the less risky. Sure there will be some Scott Kingery style flops if you extend too early. But the most common result is a younger player paid like a mediocre vet. If Jackson Chourio doesn’t become a star, he’s only getting Max Kepler money, so it really isn’t a big deal if he maintains Max Kepler production.

Both sides are aware of the injury concern. It’s probably going to be a part of the big reason the Sox won’t have to go as high as 8 years of $200mill to sign extend Crochet…

Technical the article says “didn’t top $300mill.” It leaves it open that the offer might have been $300mill. Just not $301mill…

I’ve been calling Crawford a starter all off-season. I only put him in the bullpen because I don’t think the Sox go to a six man rotation. But they do have enough health question marks in that rotation that Crawford starting feels inevitable at some point..

Short did confirm the Sox went higher than many other stories, but also reminded us the mentality against that length of extension was not limited to Boston and small market clubs,

I question my many call the bullpen a weakness. Granted, it’s got a few questions. But sometimes the answer to a question is a resounding “YES!!” Yes Jansen and Martin are gone, and the 2024 bullpen had its issues. But who is left from the 2024?opening day bullpen? As far as I can tell, just Slaten. Maybe Bernardino, if he starts the year in Boston. Returning arms Whitlock and Crawford started 2024 in the rotation, and Winckowski started in Worcester. Some new faces include Aroldis Chapman, who isn’t the same pitcher he was even 5 years ago. But neither are Martin and Jansen. (OK, Martin might be. Outside of 2023, he’s been hovering around average.) Liam Hendriks did miss the last two seasons, but had a very impressive track record before that. Justin Wilson is (I’m setting the odds here) less than 50% on finishing the season in Boston. I like the potential of Luis Guerrero, and if they can both come back, Michael Fulmer and Jovani Moran are solid relievers. (Moran will be out for a while.). Plus they have some Austin Adams vets and Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, and Zack Penrod for depth. It could easily be a very improved part of the team…

A little hyperbolic. Pete Alonso is a free agent right now because the Mets couldn’t extend him. And Aaron Judge was a free agent last year because the Yankees didn’t offer him what he felt was fair value. And of course Juan Soto left the Bronx without a extension. Yes the Sox tendered poor offers to Mookie, Lester and Bogaerts. But Lester was 10 years and 4 GMs ago. The Mookie situation has been dredged over and Zack Short even spoke out about how it wasn’t so straightforward as we fans want it to be. Plus the Sox did extend Bogaerts once and did extend Sale. Point being, this does happen with other teams. Heck the only reason the Sox have Crochet is another team didn’t extend him…

I don’t think teams value their prospects similarly to what fans do. I’m hesitant to say they’re heavily invested in him. They paid a lot, but what they gave up can be considered fair for two years. Now the goal is to keep him around, but obviously Boston (or any team) wants to do out for as little as possible…

At some point he has to stay in shape…

I was thinking that. For example, year one comes with the Bucc-ee’s pulled pork, but the opt out escalates it to a brisket..

The Sox can get that pick back if anyone else ever signs Nick Pivetta. There’s been surprisingly little buzz for a guy who was supposed to be a hot commodity this off-season…