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Jazz absolutely could have made a bad throw. But that’s a bad reason to send a runner. Using StatCast numbers, Eaton runs 29.7 feet per second. Lets cal it 30. He was exactly 90 feet from home when Jazz got to his feet. Three seconds to home . If Jazz looked to first and decided not to throw and took a full second to do so, Eaton is 60 feet from home plate. Oer StatCast, Chisholm thrown 82.3 mph, which is about 120 feet per second. He was probably 130-135 feet from home, so the throw home takes just over a second. Again, if he decides he has no play at first, Eaton would have been out by almost 25 feet. And that’s with Jazz holding the ball for a full second, which is unlikely. He had almost another second to make up his mind. Kerkering panicked. Kim was running on contact from maybe 75 feet away. Pages was unraveling from his swing and then running just over 90 feet. He has been taught since high school (hopefully) “know where you’re going if the all is hit to you.” He messed up on multiple fronts…

You keep ignoring one very obvious outcome. What if Jazz simply held the ball and made no throw to first? If Jazz came out of his dive and held the ball, something we have both seen 1,000 diving middle infielders do, sending Eaton means he is probably dead at the plate. Jazz was at his feet just as Eaton was touching third and being told to stop, so therefore Jazz had three full seconds to see he had no play at first but did have a play at home. Plenty of time. And Hudson had no way of knowing what Jazz was going to do…

That doesn’t exclude him from SS. If Story loves to 2b, Mayer is most likely the SS…

If Story opts out or moves to 2b, why wouldn’t Mayer play SS?

Sandoval is a lock. Everyone else already passed on him once. If you had to trade one - Bello or Tolle? I did rank Sandoval in between, but I doubt anyone is interest in him right now. To me, outting Bello as more tradable than Tolle was the only time I had to stop and think. Ive been pushing Fitts to the pen for multiple years. SoxProspects finally put him in there. Will the actual Sox follow? I think Perales might be best suited for the bullpen, but almost all pitchers are more suited for the pen than the rotation. I think it makes sense to give him a shot starting..,

If teams avoid Abreu because he is the dreaded "platoon guy", what do these teams think about Kerry Carpenter? He's like an older Abreu without the defense.. Also I'd be shocked if anyone took Paez. A-ball pitchers rarely get selected, and I think fans get more excited about the Rule 5 draft than CBOs do. If anyone wants Uberstine or Mullens, have at it. The real question for the Sox - do you protect Noah Song?

Ive actually found historical precedents that do refute my statement. But certainly Duran can be traded for prospects that are in turn flipped for a starter. Early has looked much better than Tolle in very limited action. I’d like them both penciled in between #6 and #9 on the SP depth chart, depending on how you rank them compared to Hunter Dobbin and Kyle Harrison

I’d pass on Gray as a #2 (but acceptable as an innings eater?). He looks like an ace/#2 borderline pitcher based on Bell’s definition and any metric. But he’s aging, and his 3 year trends are too influenced by 3 years ago. Love Suarez, even with the annual injury that costs him 2-4 weeks. Also, with Luzardo reaching FA after 2026, you are correct about Dombrowski’s pitching crunch. Plus at some point, Andrew Painter deserves a real shot.

I avoided the ERA-/ERA+ metric because pitchers do not become more talented due to defenses behind them. But it’s not like one year of fWAR isnt without flaws either. The bottom line to me is - the Sox can use this off-season to upgrade their SP, but there are multiple ways to go so beyond the fictional #2 starter. The Sox will have 11 SPs on their 40 man roster once the off-season starts (a number that includes Houck because he has to be there from December through March) so they can part either a pitching prospect if necessary, although loving one or two to the bullpen is probably smarter. Of these 9 pitchers ( not listing Houck or the recently activated RHP Luis Perales), the ones I would consider trading (in order) are: 1. Harrison 2. Crawford 3. Fitts (but I prefer simply putting him in the bullpen) 4. Dobbins 5. Bello 6. Sandoval 7. Tolle 8. Early 9. Crochet Adding another starter isn’t tantamount, but it wouldn’t hurt. But rather than calling for some sort of co-ace, another (smarter?) strategy is build up the bullpen and just add an innings eater. It doesn’t agree with anyone postseason plans, but starting pitching in the postseason is different anyway and often includes quick hooks to the bullpen. I kept reading about Bello’s “awful” start, but 2 ER in 2 IP isnt horrible. Heck in the Cubs-Brewers series, that would be elite…

All so, nice call on the WAR. Crochet didnt make the top 5, but it was close. 1. Judge 10.1 2. Raleigh 9.1 3. Witt 8.0 4. Skubal 6.6 5. Ramirez 6.4 6. Crochet 5.8

Using Skubal and Crochet as the definition of aces is like using Rolls Royce as the definition of an automobile. Why not use a more practical example, like Philly had with Sánchez, Luzardo, Suarez and Wheeler, all of who finished in the top 12 in fWAR for starting pitchers? That definition of a #2, I’ll be blunt, is useless. Why bother having the label if it is solely a matter of opinion?

Last year that put pitchers from 2.5 fWAR to 3.4 fWAR on the #2 radar (minimum 120 IP). Connelly Early was worth 1.1 fWAR in just NINETEEN INNINGS PITCHED. Why would the Sox have to trade him for Joe Ryan? Theyre probably better off with Early. Brady Singer was worth 2.5 fWAR in 2024 and 2.9 fWAR in 2025. In between those seasons as a #2 starter he was dealt straight up for Jonathan India. But we can’t get one for Duran? If the Twins think Joe Ryan, who is about as special as a pitcher as his extremely mundane name is, is worth a massive prospect haul, move on. There are other #2 pitchers available for a much smaller return…

Keller and Alcantara are definitely available. Marte? My personal theory is that he is, but no rumors around that I know of. Seager and Eovaldi? Unlikely. Semien should be, but even without hitting he was worth around 3.5 WAR last year…

What about whatever prospect talent is acquired for dealing Duran/Abreu? Also what is a #2? I think most people say “#2” but they really mean “co-ace to slot behind your best pitcher”…

It’s like $4mill. Offer Houck arbitration…

You would if your heart was pure…

Thin-skinned? Ever been on a Yankee board?

No team is giving up a #2 for Duran. Teams acquiring Duran are doing so because they want to win now or in the immediate future. Teams trying to win in the short term dont trade away their second best starter..

Jazz didn’t knock the ball down; he caught it cleanly. Had it just been knocked down, maybe Hudson does send Eaton, depending how far it rolled away from Jazz…

1. No. Hyesong Kim missed the plate entirely and came back to touch it. 2. Kerkering had plenty of time to throw to first and get the runner. There were 2 outs.

Also, I don’t think Preller is all “Duran or bust.” He did move on to Ramon Laureano last year, a step down so large I assume bungy cord was involved…

Actually the post you’re replying to was about Preller and San Diego…

Not to mention, while r Refsnyder and Romy do excel vs LHP, all LHP is not equal. Fried and Rodon did not get 9 figure contracts because they couldn’t get right-handed hitters out…

I remember the days when Yankee trolls used to say things like “any season that doesn’t end with a ring is a disappointment.” Now they’re down to “at least we got through the wild card round.”…

Also possible we are reading too much into a 3 game sample in which the entire bench played every game…