moonslav59

It's not so much about not liking Duran, but to get good quality, we have to give something up.

I think Merrifield would be a fine addition, but I think his BTV is too high. Duffy shows very little promise of returning to form. I don't know enough about Hasely or Thomas to have an opinion, but I do think Chavis is over-valued. I've seen rumors that Pittsburgh is looking to deal Musgrove or Taillon and have mentioned Adam Frazier (2B) and Josh Bell (1B) as possible pieces. Fangraphs has Frazier as a slight plus defender at 2B, since 2017, and he's got a career OPS at about .750. Bell had a great year in 2019. I'd hate to part with Dalbec, but for these three, I'd do it (other would be needed). I've mentioned including Polanco in the deal to lessen the return needed, but he doesn't really fit in with our roster, unless we sell low & trade Beni. (one could counter that Pitt is selling low on Bell, as his BTV is "0". Bell has one arb year left, after this and is projected to make $6M, this year- which is too much for Pitt. Frazier has one arb year left is may make about $4M, this year- again, too much for Pitt. Polanco has one year left at $11.6M. Taillon, of course, is the prize. He also has one arb year left. In theory, I'd like to see us trade for a player or players with more than just 2 years of team control, but 2 guys with 2 years is nice. Downs should be ready at 2B in 2 years. Casas will be close at 1B. The BTV site accepted this deal, but I can't see how Pitt would do it: Chavis (7.5) + Chatham (4.9) for Taillon (20.3), Frazier (4.0), Bell (0.0) & Planaco (-13.5) They also accepted Chavis & Beni for the same. (I'd even add Groome or Ward to any of the deals above. I'd probably give Dalbec & Chatham for those 4.) If we drop Polanco, this gets the deal done on BTV: Duran, Chavis & Chatham for Taillon, Frazier & Bell We fill 2 needs and get 1B insurance for Dalbec without losing a big name player or prospect (sorry Duran fans). This might be a more realistic trade from Pitt's point of view 9all accepted on BTV): Dalbec, Chatham & Groome for Taillon, Frazier and Bell (I'd even add Beni for Polanco to sweeten the deal for Pitt, but BTV denies that trade. It even denies that deal swapping out Chavis for Dalbec. It makes Pitt give $3M to BOS to accept it.)

JBJ, Kiermaier & Inciarte are all almost the same exact age. JBJ has certainly had a well-documented up-and-down past few years and career. It's hard to know which JBJ will be next year or in 2022. His defense appears to be slipping, but he started at such a high point, that he is still a clear plus, in my book. JBJ's roller coaster career: OPS+ 53 first 2 years (530 PAs) 118 next 2 years (891 PAs) 91 next 2 years (1076 PAs) 98 last 2 yeaars (784 PAs) Kiermaier has seen two pretty distinct divisions: 2014-2017: 107 OPS+ 2018-2020: 82 OPS+ Inciarte hs been the most consistent: between .705 and .759 from 2015-2019 and only 4 of his 7 seasons being between .732 and .759. His worst two seasons were his first (.677) and his last (.512 in just 131 PAs)

In theory, a trade for Kiermaier or Inciarte will cost us about the same as signing JBJ, but since they have negative trade value, we could maybe get a useful player that fills a need or builds up the farm along with one of them, and the return package should be light. For example, Kiermaier and Anderson has a net value on BTV of +14. Kiermaier, Anderson & Fairbanks= 24. Kiermaier & Yarbrough is +5.4, while Kiermaier, Yarbough & Fairbanks is +15.6. Mix and match these guys to come up with a decent deal for us: 21 Vaz 17 Dalbec 12 Duran 7.5 Chavis 5 Chatham 4.5 Ward 3.7 Groome 2.1 Arauz or Wilson 1.1 Grullon 1.0 Bello

Well, in 2017 he had the 7th best OPS (.721) on the team (30+ PAs). I'm not saying it will happen, but you should be able to do it, if you want. From 2014 to 2017, his OPS was .706 in 292 PAs.

Is Kiermaier too weak a hitter for you guys? Career .732 JBJ .720 Inciarte .720 Kiermaier But... OPS 2018-2020: .742 JBJ (.727 from 2017-2019) .688 Inciarte .669 Kiermaier

When Bumgarner pitches, the team should be allowed to DH for the catcher or 2Bman or whatever.

It's one of the dumbest ides I've heard.

MLBTR on the Red Sox... Red Sox Rumors: Outfield, Rotation, Second Base, Barnes

When people say VTek had a better CERA than Posada, that's crazy and useless. When you compare catchers on the same team, the same years and only against the same pitchers-one by one, it shows value. Just looking at total CERA between 2 catchers on the same team in the same year is not useful, since some pitchers only throw to one catcher or almost all to one catcher. Pitcher by Pitcher shows something useful.

If you look at the pitchers with significant sample sizes with both catchers, it's nearly a shut out in Leon's favor. While warped variations in sample sizes with some pitchers can be ignored, when you see the vast majority all favor Leon, it adds to the case made against Vaz. All the small sample sizes add up to the same conclusion- year after year. If you throw out any match up where one catcher has less than 45 PAs from 2017-2018, the score is 10-0 in Leon's favor. If you only count sample sizes of 95+ PAs with both catchers (like Dalbec's 2020 season), the score is 7-0 Leon. It's 4-0 when using 135+ PAs by both. If you add PAs from 2017-2018 together and use 300+ PAs as the min sample size, Leon wins 2-0, with Porcello and Price. He's ahead with Sale, but Vaz only has 228 PAs, and Pom where Leon only has 120 PAs. Yes, small sample sizes should not count, but when everyone shows Leon did better than Vaz and the ones that do have large enough sample sizes all show Leon doing better, why shouldn't it matter? Plus, we're talking about ERA differentials of over a run in many cases. ERod is the only starter who bucks the trend or no big variation, and even with him, Leon does slightly better.

Exactly, and I doubt any GM would agree to any of the trades I suggested.

They hate it, because people use it to compare a catcher with the Sox vs a catcher with the Yanks, and I agree, that's dumb.

Pitchers with Catchers OPS Against 2018 with Vaz/ with Leon Porcello Leon .693 (785) Vaz N/A (never caught Porcello in 2018) ERod Leon .380 (46) Vaz .709 (507 PAs) Price Leon .587 (328) Vaz .780 (394) Sale Leon .515 (426) Vaz .569 (191) Velazquez Leon .738 (95) Vaz .766 (180) Wright Leon .574 (45) Vaz .649 (174) Pom Leon .910 (101) Vaz .998 (141) These are not cherry-picked pitchers. They are the top IP pitchers with each catcher. Yes, some sample sizes are warped in one pitcher's favor, but every single pitcher did better with Leon. 2017 Sale Leon .585 (824) Vaz 1.138 (27) Porcello Leon .824 (709) Vaz .831 (311) Pomeranz Vaz .697 (721) Leon 1.297 (19) very small sample size ERod Leon .000 (3) very small SS Vaz .740 (579) Price Leon .000 (3) very small SS Vaz .666 (311) Fister Leon .666 (255) Vaz .845 (137) Kelly Leon .546 (98) Vaz .648 (127) Johnson Leon .741 (96) Vaz 1.127 (25) Some wild variations in sample sizes, but it's clear most id way better with Leon.

It's the same defense behind them, the same park and the same season. Yes, other variables come into play, but when you see year after year and different back-up catchers getting better numbers almost every time, I have to say, YES!

Here are some career numbers (I know, I said year by year, same team): ERA with these catchers: Price 2.85 J Molina (473 IP) 2.96 Leon (204) 3.06 Jaso (191) 3.61 Shoppach (162) 4.27 Vaz (360) Sale 2.51 AJ P. (226) 2.79 Leon (436) 2.98 Navarro (97) 3.02 Flowers (552) 3.36 Phegley (88) 3.53 Avila (112) 4.61 Vazquez (88) Porcello 4.17 Avila (578) 4.19 Leon (576) 4.32 Laird (296) 4.96 Vazquez (211) Buchholz 2.83 VMart (241) 3.01 Leon (155) 3.95 Salty (207) Salty, for God's sake! 4.44 Vazquez (130) ERod is pretty even with anybody. These are the top 5 Sox pitchers by IP's since Vaz came up.

It is when you use it only pitcher by pitcher- same year with each different catcher on the same team. When the numbers continue to show almost every pitcher does better with "the other" catcher, a red flag should be flown.

Although BTV says Chavis, Chatham & Ward = Dalbec (exactly), I'm not sure other GMs see it that way.

If Devers goes anywhere, it's 1B or DH.

How about Chavis + Chatham or Chavis + Ward or Groome? Or, Chavis, Chatham and Ward/Groome?

Pitcher ERAs suffer when Vaz is catching vs almost anyone else catching them.

You might like this one, although Pitt may not: Beni, Groome & Arauz for Polanco ($dump but .759 v RHPs), Taillon, Frazier (2B) and Bell (1B) Or, this one: Chavis, Chatham, Ward and Yorke for Taillon, Frazier & Bell

He's not all that great with maximizing the staff's potential, and his defense is marginal. His contract is a plus- for us and other teams. Our minor league, ML ready catching depth is weak, so trading him means we have to refill the slot he leaves open, so that's why I included Stallings. Wong or Grullon might shine, but we shouldn't hold our breath on them.

Well, you mentioned "glove first," but there are more like him out there. His career OPS vs LHPs is .711, but that is where Renfroe will come into play (in corner OF as Verdugo plays CF), so maybe we look for a glove first CF'er who hits righties better. (I think JBJ would be too expensive for what we are looking for.) Pillar is wrong-handed. Who else is there? I still think a deal for Kiermaier (.742 v RHPs) can work- somehow.

Don't do that, either. If we sign a guy like Moreland, we might as well trade Dalbec, as much as I hate to do it.