moonslav59

Everytime I see this thread come up, I think, "Oh, NO! Not again!"

Ottavino is a pen arm, and a good one. Maybe you meant Richards. We also have Pivetta & Houck as starters, until Sale returns.

Odorizzi looks like the only one worth going over the tax line to get, IMO. Haven't heard any rumors of him being close to signing. JBJ may have already passed on his best offer.

I did the fangraph's math: fWAR per PA 2019-2020 JBJ 2.4 per 650 PAs (2.9/784) EH 1.2 per 650 (1.1/608) 2017-2018 JBJ 3.0 per 650 (5.0/1076) EH 3.7 per 650 (4.6/804) 2015-2016 JBJ 5.3 (7.2/891) EH 2.1 (1.5/462) Another time period breakdown: 2018-2020 JBJ 2.8 (5.7/1319) EH 2.6 (4.3/1070) 2015-2017 JBJ 4.7 (10.4/1432) EH 2.3 (2.9/804) Fangraphs shows JBJ has been better per 650, but the last 3 years combined are very close. bWAR has EHern better, recently.

What has their WAR per PA been over the last 3 years? I provided BR's WAR per 650 and EHern has been better. Do you have fangraph's numbers, or is it just WAR/gm?

That's the big what if, and only 1200 career innings. I guess I just see a bigger slide in JBJ's defense than others have seen. Also, the question I answered was that I'd prefer EHern at $14M/1 over JBJ's suggested $12M/2 number and it has morphed into who has been and is a better FT CF'er going forward. Who knows what JBJ will sign for? I can see how wanting JBJ as our FT CF'er over EHern makes sense, but I still think EHern will be better, and since he can play 2B, our other non pitching big need area, I'd take EHern.

I have never used these projection sites in any form or manner. I'm not saying they are useless, but I can't see how they project better numbers from JBJ, based on the last 2-3 years. Maybe, they put too much emphasis on last year's very short season. JBJ put up some nice numbers in 55 games and 217 PAs, last year. We've seen those numbers or better in several 55 game sample sizes within almost every season he's had with the Sox, but we've also seen longer game sample sizes of horrific offensive numbers and occasional defensive ups and downs- at least by the metrics. .814 in his last 217 PAs .727 in his previous 1643 PAs At age 31, which number do you think he will be in 2021? +5.5 UZR/150 (-2 DRS) in 471 innings in 2020 or -1.8 UZR/150 (+5 DRS) in 1247 innings in 2019? Kike has a decent .737 OPS since 2018. It was .722 the previous 3 years. While he's had some highs (.836 in 2015 and .806 in 2018) and lows (.607 in 2016 and .680 in 2020) I still view him as being more consistent. I do worry about the fact that he has never had more than 462 PAs or 145 games, and he's never played CF FT for a whole season. It's not a clear choice, all things being even, on who I would want to play FT CF for the Sox from 2021-2022, but Kike offers more flexibility and upside due to his age (or less of a chance of a significant down slide).

Then, Betts hurt EHern's numbers in LA, last year, right?

How can anyone "see it?" We don't watch Dodger baseball wire-to-wire. I'm going off the notion that JBJ has declined, and I think there is ample evidence to show he has, despite a 55 game blip upwards, last year. I'm also going off a 1200 inning sample size of EHern in CF, which surely can be doubted and criticized. My position is based on the last 3 years' trend and the fact that JBJ turns 31, soon and EHern is 29. I'm never going to say EHern is clearly a much better defender in CF than JBJ, at this moment in time, but his defensive metrics show him better, his OPS+ is better over the last 3 years, and his bWAR per 650 PAs is better over the last 3 years. I think the burden of proof lies with the JBJ supporters. We've all watched JBJ play great D for many years. We've watched flashes of a great bat that have basically kept his overall offensive numbers near average or even above for extended times, but he's not getting better, whereas EHern seems to be.

The metrics I see, hate Bogey. He's one of the worst DRS SS's since Jeter. His UZR/150 shows him below average to bottom third or fourth. My beef with Vaz is only on how he handles the staff. I'm not sure you call that Defense or intangibles.

...and even when Sale was still pitching!

Dalbec can be a plus at 1B. Verdugo is a plus. EHern is a bigger plus in CF, but some numbers show he's a plus at 2B. Devers has been hit or miss. He can be a plus in 2021, and hopefully, Cora's influence will get him there. I may be in the minority, but I think Bogey and Vaz are net minuses on D ONLY. That leaves 2B, CF and LF. EHern can turn one plus, but he can only playmone position at a time. Beni was sliding on D, but I'm not sure we can say Renfroe is a plus or minus in LF or better or worse than Beni. Cordero shows the tools but has yet toput it all together. Arroyo has not has great defensive metrics at 2B, but he seems capable. Maybe it won't be as bad as I have made it out to be, but there is reason to think it could get real bad. It could also get near average, if a lot goes right (mostly with Cordero, Dalbec & Devers- the unknowns, more or less.)

Hard to know. Moreland had only 79 PAs with the Sox, last year. He's a very good defender and has hit pretty well. He is not a 1.177 OPS guy, like he was in those 79 PAs. I've always been high on Dalbec- higher than most and perhaps too high. His K's are worrisome, but he gets on base a lot, unlike Chavis and Middy. His 92 PAs of .959 ball, last year was nice, but I'm not expecting that over a full season. I hate to compare 2020 to 2021, since 2020 was just 60 games long and much less for several players. It might be better to look at 2019-2020 vs 2021, in some cases. We stayed even at catcher and SS. Our 1Bman, combined, hit .942, last year, so it's hard to say we can get better, but we can do better than 2019. (Same with catcher: thanks to Plawecki, our C OPS was .865. That will not likely be repeated.) I do expect improvement at these slots (some over 2019/some over 2020): Position 2020/2019 2B: .586/.661 - Hard to not see massive improvement here, unless EHern plays CF DH: .623/.776- Gotta hope we see more like 2018 or 2019 than 2020, here LF: .683/.753- I'm confident we improve here. 3B: .816/.897- Let's hope for 2019 not 2020, but I'm hoping even better. SS:.824/.943- Bogey is in peak prime, now. RF: .853/.926- We can't beat Betts and 2019, but Verdugo can improve. Others: C: .865/.744- Just give us neat .790, and I'll be happy. 1B: 942/.745- Hard to call. somewhere in between would be nice (.800+)

So, nobody wanted to pay him less than $1M for 1 month of JBJ + playoffs?

What was the comp? Career? How about.... 2015-2017? Since 2018? I also wonder if games played is an accurate divider by WAR, since EHern likely played many partial games. I did get this from BBR WAR per 650 PAs: EHern: 0.9 (15-17) 4.1 (18-20) JBJ: 5.2 (15-17) 3.1 (18-20) The trends are clearly in EHern's favor.

You'd think he'd have been traded, if anyone offered anything of value.

No moves, other than EHern improved the defense, but that's on Bloom- not Cora. Good luck, Cora. We will need it!

There is some anecdotal evidence that people hit hard by COVID have come back to feeling full strength, then get hit by fatigue months later. I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but the long term effects of COVID are largely unknown. There are some studies that show some rather frightening results. I'm very confident ERod will be fine, but it is no given he's 100% done with COVID's effects.

JBJ was a full time player for much longer than EHern, and WAR rewards more playing time, bigly. Can EHern give 650 PAs for 2 years in a row? I can't see why not, but he never has. I see a better defensive CF'er in EHern. I see even offense but maybe more consistency from EHern's offense. (His OPS+ has been better since 2017) He can play 7 positions. He's 1.5 years younger.

It's hard to know the long term effects, but this is very encouraging. Many look to Sale as the savior, but he's not due back until June, at the earliest. ERod is the rock of this rotation for 2021. If we can get 170+ from him, then all the other ifs take on a little less importance, although we still need more to go right.

T Walker to Mets. Porcello maybe to Tigers?

Yes, they have slipped since his prime years. I don't view the 60 game season as a valid sample size. One full season is barely enough to value defense for an OF'er, and the people who run UZR/150 will say just that. Do you really think JBJ is the same defender he was 3-7 years ago? Based on a 60 game season? I've never said he is not still a plus. I said he is no longer an "elite defender," and EHern is now better on D.

The 2nd year might be prohibitive. He can be flipped, if he's hitting .814 like 2020, yes, but who here, expects that? What if he's hitting .714, like he was at the deadline in 2019? How about .663 like 2018? (That was when money was not so tight.)

JBJ WAS a great defender. Kike is better now. Are you taking JBJ because of his offense? OPS+ since 2017: JBJ: 89, 92, 90, 118 (which could be the outlier year?) Kike: 92, 117, 87, 83 (also one outlier year, but not a short season) All-in-all, pretty close on offense. Kiki 98/ JBJ 94 (2017-2020 combined) I'll take EHern over 2017-2020 and certainly for 2021-2022. EHern is showing no signs of decline at age 29. JBJ turns 31 in 2 months. (BTW, "favorite player" does not equate to best player.) While Kike has been no great offensive player over the years, please don't think the 60 game 2020 JBJ is what his offense will be like over the next 2 years.

I'd put them about the same. I said I'd rather have their rotation than ours, right now. My point was that Jacko acts like it's a forgone conclusion our rotation will suck, despite the fact that he is relying on more SP'ers with 0 IP in 2020 (3) or less than 50 IPs the last 2 years (5) than we are. It's entirely within reason, our rotation ends up being healthier and or better than theirs. They kill us in the bullpen and defense. I don't think they kill us on offense, like Jacko does, but I'm counting on JD to bounce back and Devers, Bogey & Verdugo to have huge years. Vaz has been at about .800 from 2019-2020 and that could blow away what the Yankee catcher does. Dalbec shows promise, but I would not project better offense from our 1B v theirs. Middle IF goes to the Yanks. 3B to the Sox. LF, depending on the health of some players and the wild card Cordero, who knows? I'd go Sox, because I like a Renfroe-Cordero platoon (if that's what ends up happening). Hicks has not been great, but who plays CF for the Sox? EHern> Hicks, Verdugo > Hicks, but Cordero I think the Yanks score more than the Sox, but not by much. The Yanks led the AL in runs scored, last year, but as bad as things went for the Sox, they finished 5th in scoring (22 runs behind the Yanks or about 0.3 runs per game lower.) In 2019, the Yanks finished first, and the Sox 4th (41 runs behind or about 0.25 runs below.) Who improved their offense? Both are hoping for injured or low performing players to give more in 2021 than 2020 or 2019, but who added more new and promising players on offense only, as compared to who they lost? Yanks added nobody and lost Gardner (maybe). Gardner was 8th in PAs for the Yanks at .747. Who gets his PAs? You can say Judge and Frazier and that should be a plus, but the Sox could say the same about Renfroe/Cordero over Beni. The Sox added EHern .749 since 2018 Renfroe .772 since 2018 Cordero .754 since 2018 Gonzalez .713 since 2018 (.771 since 2017-the trash can year) Call me optimistic, but I like who we added on offense more than who we lost. We lost: JBJ (5th in PAs) .844 but much worse in 2019 Pillar (8th in PAs) .795 Peraza (9th) .617 Moreland (13th) 1.177 (79 PAs) Lin (14th) .355 Beni (16th) .442 also, we should see much less PAs from... Chavis (7th) .636 Arauz (12th) .644 and more from... Dalbec (10th) .959 Arroyo (15th) .736