moonslav59

Nice research. Makes you want to go regular player, or at least "best available," but finding an ace is worth more than finding a stud regular player, IMO. I wonder what just the top 4 picks would reveal. One other nice thing about this draft is that we pick 4th in every round.

That's the hardest choice a GM has to make. The Rays seem to get it right, nearly everytime.

With all the one and two year deals signed since Bloom took over, we will have a heck of a lot more spending flexibility than just Pedey coming off the books. (Remember, teams mya be more likely to spend large and long, when they know a lot of money comes off the books the following winter, too- like Price & JD- both gave us nothing in 2020.) Off the books next winter: $$$ 13.8 Pedey 2.8 Beni 10.0 Richards (option) 8.9 Ottavino 8.8 ERod 4.6 Vaz (option) 4.5 Barnes 4.5 Perez(option) 3.0 Gonzalez (ABOUT $60M! Plus, maybe we go over the tax line by $19M, so maybe $79M!) Off the books after 2022: 16.0 Price 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey (opt out) 17.0 Eovaldi 7.0 EHern 1.9 Andriese 1.6 Plawecki 1.5 Sawamura That's another $85M off the books, with only Bogey's name jumping out loudly. There is a real potential for serious improvements next winter and the one afterwards. While replacing guys like Bogey, ERod and maybe a couple more on the list above will be difficult. there is so much sunken cost being lost, that it seems like we can keep who we want or replace them with equal players PLUS add some serious signees. Teams that spend near or over the Lux tax line do not stay non contenders for all that long, unless they have several sunken larger & long contracts on the books. We will be playoff contenders or close to it, this year. We will spend way more than this winter, next winter. Sure, we may spend poorly, like Ben did with HRam and Pablo, but expecting that is not reasonable.

Sale was the best pitcher in the AL. It was a risk, but I was on board, too. I also think DD went farther than he needed to, but in baseball, nothing is guaranteed. You, being a strong advocate of the "crap shoot" playoff philosophy, might think overkill is needed to give us optimal chances at winning a ring between 2016-2019 or even 2020. As long as we got our ring, and 2018 was a magical season, I have no beef with DD. The drop off is what it is. It was expected and worth it. I like what Bloom has done, so far, but the real test will come when he spends big. That's what sunk Ben, and to a lesser extent, DD.

Yes, and they may have even seen 2020 as a year to compete, with the reset coming in 2021. We just lost Kimbrel & Kelly, who both had struggles in 2018. We added Eovaldi & Pearce for the full season, which was supposed to make up for some of the pen loss. The way Kimbrel & Kelly pitched in 2019, I'm glad we let them walk.

I'm not sure what this has to do with my point. Reset (again) in 2021 or reset in 2024? Which year will we have a better chance at winning it all, in theory?

Well said.

Exactly, and rightfully so. Next winter we move the team into serious contender mode.

So, Fenway is 2nd or 3rd worst, even now?

I've answered this before. The sooner we go over- the sooner we will have to reset. I am thinking our chances of winning in 3, 4 or 5 years will be better than 2020's chances, so staying under now, buys one more year before the next reset- in theory. I realize the whole system could change next year, but it appears the Sox are thinking they want to stay under, this winter. I'm guessing their long term plans out weigh the short term ones, at this moment in time. I hoping that changes, next winter. I'm pretty confident it will.

If we signed Odorizzi, someone like Pivetta or Houck would bolster the pen. Some even suggested making Eovaldi the closer. Adding pitching always helps. Maybe GMs saw something in Odorizzi's 2020 season that scared them away. They don't always shy away from someone over one bad 60 game stretch.

Seems strange, when everyone needs pitching.

The trend seems to be to put one of your best hitters up first, unless they are very slow. I agree that Verdugo is a better choice than EHern. Plus, EH's OBP is not as good as I thought. His power drives his OPS.

Agree, and it's a better defensive alignment.

Yup. No way Sale would have come back in just 60 days, even if he felt ready.

Makes me wonder why either will last to the 4th pick.

Especially at SS and CF.

True. Next step: keep quantity while working on quality. Winter 2021-2022 is the key. This draft is important, too. Improving our IFA signings, as well.

Fenway is better, now, but it was a minefield back in Fred's day. They put padding on the CF wall after he broke his back slamming against it to make a catch. It is still one of the most unsafe OF's in MLB.

Tell that to Fred Lynn's broken back.

We might as well get Odorizzi, too, then.

Great idea. Change everything.

That's what I have felt all along. EHern or Cordero in CF.

Just about right. Maybe a buyout of $500K to make it $7M/1 or $12M/2.

If Frazier plays well, he will play and play. Plus, someone will get hurt.