moonslav59

I'd put them about the same. I said I'd rather have their rotation than ours, right now. My point was that Jacko acts like it's a forgone conclusion our rotation will suck, despite the fact that he is relying on more SP'ers with 0 IP in 2020 (3) or less than 50 IPs the last 2 years (5) than we are. It's entirely within reason, our rotation ends up being healthier and or better than theirs. They kill us in the bullpen and defense. I don't think they kill us on offense, like Jacko does, but I'm counting on JD to bounce back and Devers, Bogey & Verdugo to have huge years. Vaz has been at about .800 from 2019-2020 and that could blow away what the Yankee catcher does. Dalbec shows promise, but I would not project better offense from our 1B v theirs. Middle IF goes to the Yanks. 3B to the Sox. LF, depending on the health of some players and the wild card Cordero, who knows? I'd go Sox, because I like a Renfroe-Cordero platoon (if that's what ends up happening). Hicks has not been great, but who plays CF for the Sox? EHern> Hicks, Verdugo > Hicks, but Cordero I think the Yanks score more than the Sox, but not by much. The Yanks led the AL in runs scored, last year, but as bad as things went for the Sox, they finished 5th in scoring (22 runs behind the Yanks or about 0.3 runs per game lower.) In 2019, the Yanks finished first, and the Sox 4th (41 runs behind or about 0.25 runs below.) Who improved their offense? Both are hoping for injured or low performing players to give more in 2021 than 2020 or 2019, but who added more new and promising players on offense only, as compared to who they lost? Yanks added nobody and lost Gardner (maybe). Gardner was 8th in PAs for the Yanks at .747. Who gets his PAs? You can say Judge and Frazier and that should be a plus, but the Sox could say the same about Renfroe/Cordero over Beni. The Sox added EHern .749 since 2018 Renfroe .772 since 2018 Cordero .754 since 2018 Gonzalez .713 since 2018 (.771 since 2017-the trash can year) Call me optimistic, but I like who we added on offense more than who we lost. We lost: JBJ (5th in PAs) .844 but much worse in 2019 Pillar (8th in PAs) .795 Peraza (9th) .617 Moreland (13th) 1.177 (79 PAs) Lin (14th) .355 Beni (16th) .442 also, we should see much less PAs from... Chavis (7th) .636 Arauz (12th) .644 and more from... Dalbec (10th) .959 Arroyo (15th) .736

I thought we paid too much for EHern, when you compare him to what Wong and C Hernandez got. I also thought we overpaid for Richards and Ottavino, but with only 1 year deals, I'm not going to raise a big stink. Back to EHern v JBJ. EHern looks to be a better defensive CF'er than JBJ, right now and over the last 2-3 years. If we use him mostly at our high-need area, 2B, we waste that value, but being able to play 7-8 positions does add value. Since our 2B and CF positions are still our weakest non pitching positions, EHern's flexibility really is a big advantage. He can start in CF, then move to 2B as Renfroe or Cordero PH for Arroyo. 2-3 years ago, I'd have taken JBJ over EHern. Now, EHern, even at $14M/2 is a better deal than JBJ at $12M/2, and we're not even sure JBJ will go that low. I will never forget what JBJ did for us, but the reality is, he's not the same JBJ anymore,IMO. Maybe 2020 is a sign he will have a resurgence, late in his career, but due to the up and down nature of his career, more offensively than defensively, though he did seem to go up and down in UZR/150 almost year-to-year, I'm not being sold on the 2020 numbers vs the 2017-2019 numbers- a much larger sample size. I wish him the best. He was my favorite player for 7-8 years. He's not worth going over the Tax for. Had we signed him first at $12M/2, I'd be saying that same about whoever our most recent signee had been, since none of these guys look like world beaters or must-haves.

He's still a plus defender but not great. His bat comes and goes and often has been good for long enough to not be a minus on offense. Overall, taking away his first year or two, he's been a plus on offense, too, when compared to other CF'ers. He looked pretty good in 2020, but he's done that for 60 games several times in the last few years but ended up with somewhat crappy numbers compared to his prime years. The three JBJs: .548 OPS from 2013-2014 (53 OPS+) .834 OPS from 2015-2016 (118 OPS+) .737 OPS from 2017-2020 (94 OPS+) I've already shown his defensive metrics have slipped significantly over the last 2-3 years.

We keep hearing how Paxton and Happ did nothing for the Yanks in the 60 game 2020 season where the Yanks went 6 gamesover .500. How are these guys improvements over Tanaka, Paxton & Happ, but when we talk Sox questionable starters, it's all about their recent history or injury history? 2020 Yankee Numbers: 0 IP Severino (12 IP in 2019) 1 IP Kluber (36 IP in 2019) 0 IP Taillon (37 IP in 2019) 44 IP 5.11 ERA Montgomery (4 IP in 2019) 34 IP 4.98 ERA Garcia 27 IP 7.76 ERA King 0 IP German Look, I'm not saying I like our rotation better than the Yanks, but let's be consistent with our criteria of placing value on the SP'ers. Is it really obvious the above SP'er will be an improvement over 3 of the top 4-5 innings eaters on the Yanks from 2019-2020 Tanaka 230 IP 4.27 ERA (104 ERA+) JA Happ 211 IP 4.57 ERA (97 ERA+) Paxton 171 IP 4.16 ERA (107 ERA+) 2018-2020? JA Happ 388 IP 4.15 ERA (105 ERA+) part of 2018 w TOR Tanaka 386 IP 4.06 (107 ERA+) Paxton 331 IP 3.97 (108 ERA+) 2018 w SEA Then, there is Stanton playing 41 games and Judge playing 130 games from 2019-2020. There is a very very significant chance the Yanks did not get better, this winter. Of course, they might, but they have as many question marks or more than the Sox do.

Actually, I was saying he wasn't worth the money he got, last year. We reset, so it didn't matter all that much. Signing him now, and going over the line, is not worth it, and I'm talking $5.5M/1. He's going to get even more. Now, if we trade some salary, somehow, and can stay under while signing him for $12M/2, I guess I'd be "okay" again, but who are we trading and how do we fill that hole? (He's also a year older, now.)

Rosenthal signs with A's for $11M/1 paid over 3 years. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/athletics-sign-trevor-rosenthal.html Kela signs with Padres.

He seems like that type, but who knows how Bloom values him vs Brice, Wilson, Walden or others.

I'm thinking we want $2-3M for the deadline, so we have $2-3M to spend, now. Will he sign for that? I guess we can go over a bit and become sellers at the deadline, but it might get too complex with the summer decision, if we are close to being playoff bound. If you think fans are pissed, now. Imagine us being 4 games behind the wild card slot at the deadline and selling off contracts to stay under the tax line.

Some nice names but some long odds.

I'm glad this is not the realistic thread.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's DFA'd within a few weeks. These guys are just incrementally better than the ones they replace- if that.

$12M/2 for a CF coach? No thanks.

Again, I'm driving the EHern for CF bandwagon. Also, trading for a CF'er or 2Bman is an option, right? Maybe 2-3 PTBNL for one? Is Jarrod Dyson still unsigned? He's still a plus defender even at his advanced age.

Yes, just because he's 24 does not mean he's ML ready. He will likely start the year in AA, so there is a chance he could jump from there to the bigs much later this year, but he'd have to really turn up his game. He also has several pitcher ahead of him-some of which are better than him. Mata and Seabold will surely get their chances before Ward, unless they get hurt. Houck is likely the #7, right now (#6 with Sale on the IL). Whitlock is a fixture on the 26 man roster, so he may get a look before Mata, Seabold or Ward do. There is also Gossett, Hart, Weber as well as Politi, German and Winckowski who could see a look before Ward.

Isn't it 3? Two from KC and 1 from NYM? As long as the prospects we get do not need to be on the 40 man roster, keep 'em coming! (We even have room for a couple on the 40, if Bloom would end his love affair with Brice.)

IMO, he is not "elite" anymore. He was, once, but not any more. As for highlights, JBJ was actually never all the flashy. He had a great first step, instincts and precise routes to where the ball was going. He wasn't about making diving plays all that often. Sure he had some great plays, especially in the triangle in CF. Nobody is saying he's below average. He still has plus range and a plus arm, but he's lost a step. He's not the same defender he was from 2013-2018. It's not just the metrics that have convinced me of his decline, but these sample sizes are clearly large enough to stand on their own. (I even threw 2018 into JBJ's more recent numbers.) JBJ 2014-2017 +8.8 UZR/150 and +47 DRS in 3753 innings 2018-2020 +3.4 UZR/150 and +2 DRS in 2855 innings He's only getting older and slower. This in no way takes away from his greatness in CF while on the Sox. He was my favorite Sox player since 2013. He's not worth $12M/2 and probably won't take that, even if we offered it.

Could be more of these types of players available in the next few days/weeks. I gotta think some will be better than Brice, Wilson, Walden or even Brewer and Valdez. I also wonder, if the Rays gave us something for Mazza & Springs, does Brice & Co. have trade value? I would think maybe Valdez & Brewer do.

GMs will pay for superb D and touch and go offense, but it's his D that has slipped to the point where his O comes under even more scrutiny. After all, we paid him a lot to play in 2020, thinking he was still a big plus on defense. He wasn't and isn't anymore.

He WAS- not IS.

Maybe our best minor leaguers by position are: SP: Houck, Mata, Seabold, Ward, Song/Groome/Bello RP: Aldo Ramirez, Bazardo, Brewer, Feltman, C Murphy/Whitlock/Winckowski C: Hernandez, Wong 1B: Casas, Chavis/Ockimey 2B: Downs, Yorke 3B: Potts, Munoz/Jordan SS: Arauz, Bonaci/Lugo LF: Duran, Decker CF: Jimenez RF: Rosario

Soxprospects.com projects these minor league rosters: AAA SP Houck, Mata, Seabold, Gossett, K Hart RP Brewer, Bazardo, Gonsalves, Espinal, MCCarthy, Weber, Feltman, Grotz, Walden C Pereda, Herrman 1B Chavis, Ockimey 2B Downs 3B de la Guerra SS Arauz LF Munoz CF Duran RF Gettys DH Puello AA SP Ward, Politi, German, Winckowski, Reys, Shugart (Groome, Bello A+) RP Simpson, Blair, Ort, Martinez, Crawford, de Jesus (Wallace A+), Gomez, Browning C Wong, Hernandez, A Rei 1B Casas 2B Netzer 3B Potts SS Fitzgerald LF Rusconi CF Rosario (Jimenez A+) RF Wilson DH Castellanos

He was invited to ST'ing. I think he is expected to be a SP'er at Portland (AA), to start the 2021 season. This does seem to be a make or break season for a few of our young pitchers, and little to no action, last year, bunched up a few players into one bigger group.

The metrics show he is minus at 2B, and the sample size is about large enough to matter. They also show he is way better in CF than anyone we've got and better that JBJ his last 2 seasons. If we can trust 2B to Arroyo, Chavis, Munoz, Arauz, then fine. We don't have much budget space to add a 2Bman, anyway, if we want to bolster our pitching staff now or at the deadline. We could always PH Renfroe or Cordero late in the game and move EHern to 2B, and slide OF'ers around to fill CF with Cordero or Verdugo. Kiki's Career UZR/150 and DRS 2B: -6.2 1263 innings (-26.9 in 2020 in 220 innings) +18 DRS CF: +8.4 in 1109 innings/ +4 DRS LF: +18.0 in 603 innings/ +14 DRS RF: +11.9 in 343 innings/ +3 DRS OF: +12.0 in 2055 innings/ +21 DRS 136 MLB OF'ers with 2,000+ innings since 2014: UZR/150 16.0 Kiermaier 15.8 H Bader 14.8 J Dyson 14.4 M Betts 13.4 A Judge 12.0 E Hernandez 21 DRS/2055 innings 11.6 B Hamilton 10.2 L Cain 10.2 J Gallo 10.1 B Buxton 9.1 L Martin 9.0 A Gordon 8.0 J Marisnick 7.4 J Lagares 7.3 JBJ 55 DRS in 7167 innings 7.3 E Inciarte Now, look at 2019-2020 (175 OF'ers with 300+ innings) 6. Hernandez +17.3 13. Betts +14.0 80. JBJ +0.4 Just say no to JBJ. He gave us some great years of defense and some very good hitting in spurts- some extended, some not so extended.

Maybe there is a reason JBJ has not signed, yet. Either he is not as good as we think he is, or he and his agent think he is worth more than what any GM thinks he's worth. (I wonder what his top offer has been, and if it is still on the table.)

JBJ already has diminished defensive skills. He's not the same as he was 3-5 years ago. The eye test and defensive metrics both show he was about average the last 2 years. He's only getting older. His bat is as hot and cold as ever there was one. Let's nit be fooled by a decent 60 game season, last year. He's not worth $7M/1, let alone $21M/3. I would pay him $5M/1, but we'd be right at the tax line with no flexibility to add pitching, later. If we sign JBJ, I'll be shocked. Note: before anybody goes off on me for not showing enough love for JBJ, nobody defended him more than I did over the last few slump-ridden seasons. NOBODY! The guy WAS a great defender. I love defense up the middle. Personally, I think E Hern is a better defensive CF'er than the 2021 JBJ, and certainly will be by 2022. We need pitching. Second is pitching. Third is pitching or maybe a 2Bman, so EHern cam play CF, and Cordero can platoon with Renfroe in LF. Just say no to JBJ. He's not taking $3M/1, which is about all we have to spend, right now.