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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I might be the only guy here who still thinks GMs value Swihart highly, but if you prefer Espi, Moncada, Basabe and Dubon or Travis, I think that will come close to what ATL or LAD gives the CWS for Sale. I'd even consider JBJ, Espi, Moncada, Swihart, Hembree and Shaw for Sale, Robertson & Frazier.
  2. moonslav59
    Technically, a platoon. Career vs RHPs: .753 vs LHPs: .536 $8M for a platoon catcher!
  3. moonslav59
    Masterson Dempster or the Aaron Cooks of the world
  4. moonslav59
    Let's trade for Miley and call it a day.
  5. moonslav59
    Yeah, let's sign Penny & Smoltz again!
  6. moonslav59
    I haven't been on this site very long, but if it's like "the other one", my guess is that if Espi becomes the next Pedro, 80% of the board will say, "I told you we overpaid". Maybe 50% will say they were against it at the time. For years, I've heard the complaints that our system never produces any aces. We finally get a pitcher who might be the highest ranked 18 year old starter in a very very long time (I'm still waiting for some research on this point), and we buckle under the pressure of a need for a number 3-4 type starter on a team that finished last in 3 of 4 years prior. Trading Iggy for Peavy, or Stephen Fife for Erik Bedard is one things, but trading a top 12-15 pitching prospect like Espi, in my opinion, was a huge gamble and a huge mistake. Even if Pom pitches like a number 2 for the remaining two years on his deal, I think it was a massive overpay.
  7. moonslav59
    No we didn't. Anderson Espinosa was a fine prospect, but one top 5 prospect who's at least 4 years from the majors isn't nearly the price any team would ask for an ace type starter in a market this short on supply and this long on demand. You know that just as well as I do, so stop spewing BS you don't even believe yourself. Nowhere on this site has anybody said we could trade Espi for an ace- one for one. The "headliner" comment, I assume, was implying that maybe Espi would be the headliner of a package to get an ace not a number 3-4. Espi, Moncada and Swihart could have probably gotten us an ace. I was against the Kimbrel trade, because we traded top prospects for a RP'er. Plus, the RP'er was paid like aa FA. I was against the Pomeranz trade, not out of my reluctance to trade top prospects. On the contrary. I'm more than willing to part with top prospects, but I want an ace- not a number 3/4 and a RP'er. I don't think anyone is saying the Kimbrel or Pom packages would, by themselves, net us an ace.
  8. moonslav59
    I said at the time of the trade that bringing in an ace would have been overkill and I stand by that. I like Pomeranz, but I'm standing by my philosophy: it's rarely beneficial to build a staff from the middle down. Start from the top. I realize we had just added Price, and Porcello was pitching like an ace, but the Cubs added Lester and Lackey after already having solid 1- 2 starters.
  9. moonslav59
    The reason I brought up Castor is that many seem to feel guys like Swihart, Leon and Vaz have little trade value until "they prove themselves". The state of MLB catching these days is very poor. If a team will pay Castro $8M a year for 3 years after having three straight bad offensive seasons just because he is a top 10 pitch-framer proves that GMs are starving for average to decent catchers. I'm not even sure being the 10th ranked pitch-framer makes up for Castro's below average offense. I admit I don't know much about his other defensive skills, but fangraphs has his as 12th out of 35 catchers with 1500+ innings since 2014. His CS% has been 36% over three years. He's near the league lead in PB+WP allowed in those three years (30+124=154). I guess we can probably call him about the 10th best defenive catcher out of the top 30 (one per MLB team). That's pretty good, but when you count the fact that not a single catcher in MLB had more PAs and a lower OPS than Castro since 2014, I'm thinking even slightly below average is a high value these days at the catcher position. Out of 30 catchers with over 810 PAs since 2014, Castro placed 28th at 660.
  10. moonslav59
    I tried to change the subject. It's not Dewey or I keeping the debate going.
  11. moonslav59
    True, but the list I provided is not even complete. We've traded away a lot of young pitchers and vets as well (Lester, Lackey...). However, look at some of the names we got for them. Somewhere, other GMs valued our guys too, even the ones that flopped.
  12. moonslav59
    Pitch framing is a very valuable asset. My argument is not about Castro not being worth $24.5M. It's about the value of catchers today, and how there are very few high value catchers out there. According to StatCorner, Vazquez had the 3rd best framing numbers in 2014 (1.80 calls per game); Castro was 22nd (+0.61). (All catchers with 1000+ calls) Castro placed 15th in 2015 at +1.04. (Swihart was -0.17.) 2016? Castro placed 11th (+0.92) while Vaz placed 17th at +0.56 Swihart -0.29 Holaday -0.80 S Leon -0.89 I guess pitch framing is the new CERA. It is not the only factor used to rate/rank catcher defense. Pitch blocking, CS%, staff handling and other areas are all of value. Again, I'm not disrespecting Castro. I'm actually using his example to prove that teams value catchers, even if they can't hit.
  13. moonslav59
    I doubt it. Maybe on a platoon, but not FT. He's got horrible splits. My point is that weak hitting catchers can still have high value. I'm not saying he has low value. Castro barely got over half the catcher PAs on the Stros this year. He had about 60% of the catching PAs in 2015.
  14. moonslav59
    Good to see an unbiased baseball guy see things the way I do.
  15. moonslav59
    Well, we've gotten some good talent by trading our "flops"... (Note: some pitchers were secondary pieces in these trades) (Note: some were/are not flops) Pomeranz for Espinoza Porcello for Alex Wilson & Cespedes Kimbrel for Logan Allen, Margot, Guerra and Asuaje Robbie Ross for Ranaudo Marco Hernandez for Doubront Miley (>>C Smith) for RDLR & Webster Peavy for Frankie Montas & Iggy AGon for C. Kelly & Rizzo VMart for Hagadone, Masterson & B Price Melancon for K Weiland & Lowrie Marlon Byrd for Micharl Bowden J Bay for Craig Hansen, Manny & Moss Eric Gagne for K Gabbard & D Murphy Erik Beddard for Stephen Fife & others Beckett & Lowell for Anibal Sanchez and HanRam
  16. moonslav59
    If we still had Espi, we might get an ace with Moncada and Espi combined. I'm fine with trading Espi, but not for a number 3-4 slot starter for 2.3 years of control. We weref inally gaining some ground in our pitching prospect pool: Espi, Kopech and Groome.
  17. moonslav59
    Some issues with the contract negotiations... There's talk of a lock-out... ....The key matters yet to be determined are, however, rather notable. According to Rosenthal, the owners offered to get rid of any tying of free agents to draft compensation (as currently embodied in the qualifying offer system), but requested an international draft in exchange. The union, it seems, has lined up behind the idea that the draft would be too onerous. There’s also disagreement regarding the competitive-balance tax and the Joint Drug Agreement. As to the former issue, it seems largely a matter of divvying up dollars and figuring out ways to ensure that teams put any subsidies into their major league roster. With regard to the latter, it seems that all are agreed on the need to add force to the JDA, but the players are asking to be compensated in exchange.....
  18. moonslav59
    The Twins have reached agreement on a contract with free agent catcher Jason Castro, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Castro will receive a three-year deal with over $24MM guaranteed, per the report. The exact guarantee is $24.5MM, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports ... The guy ranks something like 28th out of 30 in catcher OPS from 2014-2016 combined. He's not known for great d either. The state of catching these days is sad.
  19. moonslav59
    I don't think Pomeranz is that big of a difference maker to trade away so much upside potential, but I understand why they did it.
  20. moonslav59
    You'd be amazed at how many champions had 1 or more starters with an ERA over 4.75 or even 5.00. (based on top 5 in GS'd) 2000 NYY 29 D Cone 6.91 15 Neagle 5.81 2001 AZ 29 Anderson 5.20 17 R Ellis 5.77 2002 LAA 26 A Sele 4.89 15 Schoeneweis 4.86 2003 FLA none 2004 BOS (WOW! 63 starts with 4.87+++) 33 Lowe 5.43 30 Wake 4.87 2005 CWS 22 O Hernandez 5.12 2006 STL (Take a gander!!!!) 33 Marquis 6.02 17 Mulder 7.14 17 A Reyes 5.06 (6) 15 JWeaver 5.18 (7) 13 Ponson 5.24 95 starts with a starter over 5.05! 2007 BOS 31 Wake 4.76 23 Tavarez 5.15 2008 PHI 30 Kendrick 5.49 19 Eaton 5.80 2009 NYY 31 Chamberlain 4.75 T5- 9 S Mitre 6.79 T5- 9 C-M Wang 9.64 2010 SFG none (6) 11 Wellemeyer 5.68 2011 STL none (Westbrook was close at 4.66 in 33 starts) 2012 SFG 33 Lincecum 5.18 (only had 2 starts beyond their top 5 starters!) 2013 BOS none (Dempster was not far away at 4.57 in 29 starts.) 2014 SFG 26 Lincecum 4.74 2015 KCR 24 Guthrie 5.95 (Cueto was added- 13 starts 4.76) 2016 Cubs none over 3.83
  21. moonslav59
    I can see your point, but I plan on being a Sox fan for many more years to come. Our core is cheap, but they are also great. Trust in our farm is what kept them from being traded for the here and now 3-7 years ago.
  22. moonslav59
    It seems simple to me: Gold Glove for Defense Silver Slugger for hitting Cy Young for pitching MVP for the most valuable player. Pitchers are players. DHs are players. I don't get why people view the Cy Young as excluding pitchers from consideration. Does a GG award exclude a hitter from MVP? Does a Silver Slugger Award to a pitcher exclude him from Cy Young consideration?
  23. moonslav59
    Looking at specific catchers and their OPS in 2016. Out of the top 30 catchers by PAs... PA Rank PAs Catcher OPS 7. 532 Vogt .711 11. 464 Wieters .711 12. 458 Norris .583 15. 420 Barnhart .702 17. 393 Cervelli .699 18. 376 Castro .684 19. 373 Suzuki .704 20. 373 McCann .629 (Just traded for a couple nice prospects) 21. 338 Ianetta .631 22. 334 Navarro .587 25. 292 Salty .630 26. 291 C Perez .568 27. 284 Montero .684 30. 276 d'Arnaud .629 31. 264 Gomes .527 32. 259 AJ Pierzynski .547 33. 256 Casali .609 34. 253 Maldonado .683 35. 251 B Wilson .626 19 of the top 35 catchers were below .711 14 of 35 were below .685 10 of 35 were below .631 5 of the top 32 were below .583
  24. moonslav59
    lmao!
  25. moonslav59
    You can't put a "stat" on the boost picking up a guy like Peavy gives a team in a playoff race, but based on player reactions, it's not insignificant. Throw in the fact that a lot of Sox pitchers commented on how much they learned from Peavy, and you get a better sense of how much that deal helped that year. You can't put a stat on what Iggy did for the team. Bogey raved at how much Iggy helped him on defense. He was a great influence on his teammates, and they all cried when Iggy was dealt.. Half the team complained about us giving up Frankie Montas in the deal, so don't forget that either. We we lucky we had Dempster to bring the team out of the post trade doldrums.
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