Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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It's tricky, but you also have to consider that somebody might get injured. -
The Crochet extension was a sizable risk. As you alluded to, they're all risks now.
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It's really Captain Obvious stuff this year, isn't it. Crochet Chapman Honorables: Rafaela, Narvaez, Bregman, Story
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Here's a question for you. Why do you think MLB teams have large analytic departments?
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Bellhorn04 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You can say the same about all projections and predictions. I don't pay much attention to them either. -
+ 5-1 vs the Yanks.
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I think he might have the superior 'quick twitch' muscles like Mookie.
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Well, here's where you're simply dead wrong. Of course it's a guess. Two different scorers can call the same play differently. Sometimes they go back and review the play and change the call. The fact that it goes into the books as an error doesn't change the fact that it was only one person's opinion. It makes it easier for you to rely on errors and fielding % and ignore other metrics, but that doesn't make it right.
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Sure, it's a recorded fact that the official scorer called it an error. But that call is what you are referring to as a guess. By the same token there are recorded facts that metrics people determined it was a routine play, difficult play or whatever. There is absolutely no difference between the two types of determinations.
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One of the reasons the Red Sox traded Nomar in 2004 was that they determined he had significantly lost fielding range after his injury. At first they only suspected this by watching the games, then they hired some people to track Nomar on a play by play basis, and this confirmed their suspicions. The outcome is well known, they traded for Cabrera, Cabrera played a great SS and they won the WS. A simple and well known example of the value of metrics beyond fielding %.
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Sure, that's the part we can see. It's always a bit of a mystery WHY guys start playing better or worse all of a sudden. I have been very hard on Sox ownership and their frugality the last few years but in this case I think they did something they thought had to be done for the good of the team. Maybe I'm just basing this on how I feel personally. The Devers drama felt like it was hanging over my head as a fan and I'm relieved it's gone.
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Wrong. A metric is a measurement, period. There's no rule that a metric has to be an estimate. And errors of course are judgment calls that the play should have been made, so they are just part of the group of measurements that form defensive metrics. Errors are most certainly a metric.
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- jarren duran
- alex bregman
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I don't think many teams were willing to take on the whole contract. I doubt there were any willing to do that AND give up serious talent.
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Well, you're acknowledging the existence of qualitative differences in range which are not measured by fielding %. The answer to the question might be unclear based on those numbers only, but it's easy enough to measure which fielder has more range based on data and video. If a Player A gets to twice as many balls as Player B and his fielding % is only slightly worse, that means he is generating far more outs and is clearly the better defender. That is as obvious as it can possibly be.
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They could have afforded it, but there's a pretty good chance they can spend the $250 million better, too.
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Devers has been terrible since the trade - .691 OPS and 2 HR in 24 games. From what I've read he is dealing with both a groin issue and a back issue and that's why they've postponed him moving to 1B. And of course he had the shoulder problems last year. I'm surprised anyone can still think it wasn't the right move.
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Shortstop A gets to 100 balls and turns 96 of them into outs. Fielding pct. .960. In the same number of innings, Shortstop B gets to 50 balls and turns 49 of them into outs. Fielding pct. .980. Based on this information and nothing else, would you conclude that B is the better shortstop?
- 233 replies
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- jarren duran
- alex bregman
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It was tough, but hopefully Fitts can step in for him.
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One thing a team could always use one more of is quality RP.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Bellhorn04 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Terrible news indeed. -
The offense has been rejuvenated by Story and Rafaela stepping it up hugely, and Anthony and Mayer starting to pitch in. Having so many young players in the lineup now really amps up the energy level.
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Why the hell would they trade Gray? He's under control through 2027. There has to be some semblance of a baseball or financial reason for the other team to make the deal.
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That's pretty close to the proverbial bag of baseballs.
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Show us your track record, we'd all love to see it. 🙃
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I think if St. Louis does actually put Helsley on the market they'll be looking for, and getting, significantly better offers than that.
