Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Cheapskate! -
5 years including 2025 and 2026 - $145 million - no opt outs - incentives tossed in. If anyone complains that $130 is too much for those 3 extra years they're thinking too much like JH!
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OK, the $125 number is probably too high. I'm just thinking Crochet might really like the idea of a 4 year deal that sets him for life but also gets him to free agency at age 29. And $125 while an overpay is obviously less risky than $200. Maybe a 5 year deal would work. There is no perfect deal. There's going to be high cost and high risk no matter what. We're always talking about 7-8 year deals for pitchers being too long. I'd prefer a shorter deal with no opt-outs than a 7 year deal with opt-outs. But to get Crochet's side to agree to a shorter deal the money has to be compelling.
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How about this: 4 years including 2025 and 2026, $125 million (or so), no opt out. He can become a free agent at 29.
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But I was talking about the threat of injury from Crochet's end of it, if he doesn't sign an extension. That risk is huge too, but it's his risk. The risks on either side are why there has to be a trade-off reflected in the terms.
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What about the threat of injury? If Crochet doesn't sign an extension and then gets hurts in 2025, his career earnings in baseball might be capped at around $10 million. Meanwhile, $150 million is more than he could ever spend.
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Perfect opportunity for him!
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It's not necessarily "betting against yourself" when the risk of career-ending injury at any time is not insignificant for a pitcher...
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I think they'll probably get this done. I do think the Sox have some extra motivation from the fact they gave up a lot of talent. And they really need a guy like this. I think they'll make a solid offer.
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Crochet is in kind of an unusual position here because he had his breakout season with just 2 arb years left. He only gets 3.8 million for this year. He's only looking at about $15 million in arb money. If he gets injured he might not even get that. A big chunk of "life-changing" guaranteed money has to look pretty attractive to a man in that position. Especially a pitcher who hasn't even pitched a full MLB season yet. But maybe he's a ballsy guy who's willing to "bet on himself".
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It's been talked about so much they might as well give it a whirl, just to get it over with LOL
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Bellhorn04 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They expect Duran to regress back to about 3 WAR, and they're not projecting much for Anthony and Campbell. And oh yeah, O'Neill is gone and not replaced. So I get it. -
You negotiate and try to meet about halfway. Something like $175/6 with an opt out after 3 years. If he insists on an opt out after 1 year you walk away.
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I already answered, moon. And mvp already agreed with me. You missed this somehow.
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Sorry but I honestly have no idea what this means. Brady's and Mahomes's teams have PHENOMENAL records, regular season and postseason. I think it has a lot to do with them.
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And what was your prediction for Pivetta again? I'm waiting like a buzzard on a fence to see how that one turns out. 😄
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Crochet is not in a super-strong negotiating position. If the Sox don't extend him he's looking at 2 arb years and the ever-present risks of injury and underperformance.
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The whole thing is a rabbit hole. Not that that's ever stopped us...
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Lesser-known guys Coming Up Clutch always helps. Like the guy in my avatar. 🙃
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OK, make it $150 mill then. I'm just talking about the 1 year opt out part.
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Agreed. OTOH steroids have been connected to injuries as well - weakening of bones and tendons etc.
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You can't give him a $200 million guarantee with an opt out after 2027. That's way too much risk for the team and way too little for the player. There has to be a balance. If that's your only choice, yes, you'd be better to let the 2 years play out. You seem to be overlooking the possibility he might get injured or his performance might not live up to expectations-which could happen in 2025 or 2026, after you've given him the $200 million. Whereas if it happens with no extension, you've only lost $15-20 million or whatever. Your scenario results in talking on mammoth risk for the sake of having 1 additional year of control.
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Yes, a few teams with mediocre QBs have won the Super Bowl. But 10 of the Super Bowl winners this century have had Brady or Mahomes. If you add the Manning brothers and Roethlisberger, it's 16 rings won by 5 QBs. The importance of the QB is pretty large.
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moon is destroying my brain here LOL
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I think it would be nuts to guarantee a guy $200 million and give him an opt out after 1 year. If he gets injured year 1 you're screwed. If he wins the Cy Young he might want to test the market again.
