Red Sox Roundup, Oct 12: Offseason Questions, Injury Concerns, Non-Tender Risks

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would like to put up more fight in the playoffs.  Tis a bit deflating when we are never really in the series.  But we were in it in 2025, we won game 1 and game 2 was close.  Sure game 3 got away a bit but end result isnt always indicative of how tight the series was.  But yes, if we put up more fight and lose, I will be happy.

TBH, it wasn't even just losing two games that was the problem. The team put the brakes on once it got to September. It was a pretty miserable end to the season. It'd be one thing if we could just point to a bad few games, but the season was a real slog at the end. 

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, notin said:

“We wouldn’t have made it in the NL” is straight up conjecture.  Sure their record against AL opponents didn’t have enough wins, but the Sox were also the only team in the postseason to play in a division with two other teams that won 90 games.

The folks who like the negative hypotheticals are always the first to speak out against the positive ones…

WE had a .537 winning percentage, in the NLE that would have been third in the division and fourth in the WC.  Thats no playoffs.  Now understood the schedule would have been different, but considering that the best record in the nl was better than the best record in teh al, the second best record in the nl was better than the second best record in teh al, the third best record in the nl was better than the third best record in the al, the fourth best record in the nl was better than the fourth best record in the al....

Im not sure that its unfair to theorize that in the nl, its unlikely the red sox winning % would have been higher all else being equal due to difference in competition.  It might have been worse.

The red sox were probably close to the 10th best team in all of mlb last year.  Maybe 8.  Thats not bad, but its not a place where I desire to be stuck, and so i want to strive to get better.

But if they sign suzuki, gray, a couple solid relievers, and make a trade for another quality bat - then i will be happy with the effort.

Im not negative. Im jsut not complacent.  I dont think JH is this tight wad.  I havent accepted that they will never be players in free agency.  Im not convinced that serviceable guys making min wages will get their jobs rolled over without us looking for better.

Who is more negative:
 

Person x - we have to accept that they are cheap now. That they will never field a complete team. We have to be happy with being slightly over .500 , and competing for the playoffs.  Maybe once in a great while everything will align and we can swing above our weight class. It happens every few years where a non high salary team wins it all. it can happen for us.

Me - I dont need to accept that they are cheap now.  Not because I think i can scream and demand more and that it will actually happen.  I recognize im powerless.  But I dont think JH is the meiser that some make him out to be.  ANd I think the failures of the last offseson was Breslows, and if we dont win a playoff series next 2 years, I think he'll be gone.

[drewski6]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d at least understand why.  Although part of me thinks even the most gluttonous free agent hoarder might be overwhelmed by the spending that team has done…

You dont understand why we are focused on getting past the yankees when all they did was get one round further then us?
 

Are you thking about how you are going to beat level 4 when you are on level 2? Have you ever heard of looking past the current opponent?

Because the last 2 years, the yankees have taken us out.  And its gotten easier for them to do so (2026 vs 2025). Also because of the playoff format you have to get through your division first 1-2 rounds of playoffs.  Love it or hate it, we have to get to second before we can get to first in the ALE.  And last 2 years its the NYY who have prevented us from moving up in the reg season to second (where at least we'd have the home games) and its the NYY that sent us home with smug faces to boot (especially Schlittler)

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

TBH, it wasn't even just losing two games that was the problem. The team put the brakes on once it got to September. It was a pretty miserable end to the season. It'd be one thing if we could just point to a bad few games, but the season was a real slog at the end. 

Yup, great add.  And this is why talking about how we cant put too much in 2 games vs the yankees in the playoffs or talking about how we cant blame ourselves for not hitting their good pitching in a small sample , feels like carrying water for Breslow.  

He set out to fix our offense at least at the beginning of last offseason, and he didnt.  By most metrics, our offense went backwrds.  But Joe Brady will tell you because he spent efficiently, he should get exec of the year and we should build statues for his perennial third place, easy out in the playoff teams.  Its like asking me where I am going to put my Eduardo Rodriguez tattoo.  Since when do we worship mediocrity?

[drewski6]

At a point last year, I was screaming fire Breslow.  Ive quieted on that.  Thats as far as Im willing to go right now.  Im not there yet where I can turn into a defender or praise him or endorse him.  I will give him that his hot seat turned to warm.  For it to get to cool, we need to move up.  Sports, you are accountable to your results.  Thats what Parcells famously said.  Breslow doesnt get an exception.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

TBH, it wasn't even just losing two games that was the problem. The team put the brakes on once it got to September. It was a pretty miserable end to the season. It'd be one thing if we could just point to a bad few games, but the season was a real slog at the end. 

I mocked that approach from the beginning of September -- because we all knew in the end it wouldn't be easy to just push a start button and get everyone summer hot again.

I wonder if the Sox didn't can Cora in April, still had their historic summer, and then tanked the final month and got obliterated in the Bronx... if then, he gets fired?

Because that's the aftertaste that lingers now, looking back on the great progress of a club that won three less games (including a W in the playoffs) than the previous season.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

But if they sign suzuki, gray, a couple solid relievers, and make a trade for another quality bat - then i will be happy with the effort.

They aren't spending that much without figuring out a way to clear a ton of payroll. 

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

He set out to fix our offense at least at the beginning of last offseason, and he didnt. 

The team was pretty bad at the beginning and end of the season. There was a 40ish G stretch where they played historical baseball on the backs of fringe offensive players like Durbin, Seigler, Sogard and Monasterio. You can't count that on happening every season. 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I mocked that approach from the beginning of September -- because we all knew in the end it wouldn't be easy to just push a start button and get everyone summer hot again.

I wonder if the Sox didn't can Cora in April, still had their historic summer, and then tanked the final month and got obliterated in the Bronx... if then, he gets fired?

Because that's the aftertaste that lingers now, looking back on the great progress of a club that won three less games (including a W in the playoffs) than the previous season.

Cora and the gang still get fired because they didn't see eye to eye with the direction Breslow wanted to go. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

"Yeah, we've spent too much recently. We probably DON'T need Skubal this time." 

I'm not sure many Dodgers fans are thinking this. 

I’m sure they’re thinking the exact opposite.  But since adding Betts, they’ve gone on to add Freeman, Tucker, Teoscar, Snell, Glasnow, Tanner Scott, Edwin Diaz, and even briefly added Trevor Bauer.  That really shouldn’t be the expectation.

And they’ll probably (re: most definitely) add Skubal once the CBA dust settles…

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

You dont understand why we are focused on getting past the yankees when all they did was get one round further then us?
 

Are you thking about how you are going to beat level 4 when you are on level 2? Have you ever heard of looking past the current opponent?

Because the last 2 years, the yankees have taken us out.  And its gotten easier for them to do so (2026 vs 2025). Also because of the playoff format you have to get through your division first 1-2 rounds of playoffs.  Love it or hate it, we have to get to second before we can get to first in the ALE.  And last 2 years its the NYY who have prevented us from moving up in the reg season to second (where at least we'd have the home games) and its the NYY that sent us home with smug faces to boot (especially Schlittler)

You really love those two game sample sizes.  It “got easier” for the Yankees to take out the Sox because it took 2 games this year instead of three? Maybe it “got easier” because the Sox win in 2025 was pitched by a guy who only threw 5 games in 2026.

Status quo might not be desirable, but that doesn’t make it a downward trend…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't spending that much without figuring out a way to clear a ton of payroll. 

Beyond maybe a bullpen arm or two, and maybe a new BUC, I don’t think the Sox are going to be involved in free agency all that much this off-season.  Maybe a splurge SP like Michael King.

Suzuki is very unlikely given the Sox crowded outfield and, given the choice, Seiya’s preference to not be a DH.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

But Joe Brady will tell you because he spent efficiently, he should get exec of the year and we should build statues for his perennial third place,

What Joe Brady will tell you is that his off-season acquisitions were great.  And that it was the carry-over guys that brought the team down.

Just circling back to the videotape, my recollection is that you were fairly gung-ho on keeping Duran, and I think (not sure) you wanted to keep Story.  And I will assume you wanted to keep Crochet & Anthony.

And what was our biggest problem (IMO)?  Duran, Story, Crochet & Anthony, with a collective 1.4 bWAR, after having accumulated 18.3 bWAR in 2025.

But according to your calculations, the issue WASN'T the decline of 16.9 bWAR from our big-4.  The decline was due to the 2026 additions of Contreras, Durbin, Gray, Bennett & Suarez, with a combined 14.8 bWAR?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't spending that much without figuring out a way to clear a ton of payroll. 

Yup, it won't happen.  Suzuki & Gray probably go for $50M+.  We have about $19M left before we reach our 2026 spending level.  We could clear another ~$18M by DFA'g Duran, Houck & Crawford, but that might be short-sighted.  If we DFA'd Duran, we can afford the $25M DH or the $25M #2 type SP.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

You really love those two game sample sizes.  It “got easier” for the Yankees to take out the Sox because it took 2 games this year instead of three? Maybe it “got easier” because the Sox win in 2025 was pitched by a guy who only threw 5 games in 2026.

Status quo might not be desirable, but that doesn’t make it a downward trend…

The Sox did make it very easy for the Yankees to advance this season vs last season. There was no dog in this fight. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Beyond maybe a bullpen arm or two, and maybe a new BUC, I don’t think the Sox are going to be involved in free agency all that much this off-season.  Maybe a splurge SP like Michael King.

Suzuki is very unlikely given the Sox crowded outfield and, given the choice, Seiya’s preference to not be a DH.

No Kings

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

my recollection is that you were fairly gung-ho on keeping Duran

Understatement of the 2020's so far. 

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The team was pretty bad at the beginning and end of the season. There was a 40ish G stretch where they played historical baseball on the backs of fringe offensive players like Durbin, Seigler, Sogard and Monasterio. You can't count that on happening every season. 

A 32-5 magic carpet ride driven by a bunch of P&P players saved the Red Sox season from not only ending up a losing team, but out of the postseason as well cameo appearance, or not. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't spending that much without figuring out a way to clear a ton of payroll. 

I havent fully accepted that, but I see it as a potential roadblock.  Im hoping that they understand that payroll will clear as various contracts expire.  Also, inflation and the elephant in the room that we dont know how the ownership vs players will settle.

[Old Red]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Alonso got what a 170M contract, there are contracts in teh 300m range, 400m range, 500m, 600m, 700m range.  To not spend 170m on 45 HR when you need them, and not even make an effort....And then have the fans tell us that we should be glad they didnt feels off.

But the past is the past.  And Im not sure we can recover 2027 from the mistakes we made in 2026 (not getting any of alonso, bregman, schwarber) - but you and moon are doing a good job of showing me that avenues to improve are usually present and suzuki would be a good add.

Im not certain we are screwed, but Im certain that if we are complacent with an offense that has been stuck in the mud, we arent exactly doing everything we can to get over the hump.  To go from 20th to 11th (passing those 9 teams) is easier than going from 11th to 2nd (passing the next 11 teams).  

One of my favorite things that Joe Brady ever said was you can pass a lot of teams in the AL by just standing still, cuz many are jogging backwards.  Like the Rangers trying to shave money after winning it all. But that was extenuating circumstances cuz their tv deal went south.

Well said. Alonso got $155M, and they did make a feeble effort, but I believe they didn’t want to have two five year $150M+ contracts when they were counting on, and allocating one of those to Bregman, so they ended up whiffing on both. When you hit 23 less HR, and score 97 less runs than the year before more power was needed. Not less.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Beyond maybe a bullpen arm or two, and maybe a new BUC, I don’t think the Sox are going to be involved in free agency all that much this off-season.  Maybe a splurge SP like Michael King.

Suzuki is very unlikely given the Sox crowded outfield and, given the choice, Seiya’s preference to not be a DH.

Well, then they better get to wheeling and dealing.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

What Joe Brady will tell you is that his off-season acquisitions were great.  And that it was the carry-over guys that brought the team down.

Just circling back to the videotape, my recollection is that you were fairly gung-ho on keeping Duran, and I think (not sure) you wanted to keep Story.  And I will assume you wanted to keep Crochet & Anthony.

And what was our biggest problem (IMO)?  Duran, Story, Crochet & Anthony, with a collective 1.4 bWAR, after having accumulated 18.3 bWAR in 2025.

But according to your calculations, the issue WASN'T the decline of 16.9 bWAR from our big-4.  The decline was due to the 2026 additions of Contreras, Durbin, Gray, Bennett & Suarez, with a combined 14.8 bWAR?

It was not getting Bregman and Alonso. It was trading Devers the year before.  It was ignoring the need for slg.  It was rolling over the mostly same hitter group that fell on their face last year.

I completely reject your premise that this is the lens of how he should be graded.  He should be graded that he is now entering year 5 and has no reg season finish above 3rd and no playoff series wins.  Its not like this is his first offseason.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

You really love those two game sample sizes.  It “got easier” for the Yankees to take out the Sox because it took 2 games this year instead of three? Maybe it “got easier” because the Sox win in 2025 was pitched by a guy who only threw 5 games in 2026.

Status quo might not be desirable, but that doesn’t make it a downward trend…

IF it was a 11 game series, we would have lost 6 in a row and averaged .05 runs between the six games.  The offense was putrid all of September too.

[drewski6]

I knew the team didnt have enough hitting last playoffs, didnt get it last offseason, last year, and last playoffs.  I was pretty vocal about it.  The complacency contingent was like we will be fine because if you squint they will be top 15 in OBP.  ANd then we fell on our face with an awful , anemic offense.

And teh complacency contingent is back, yet again, to tell us, dont expect improvement.  Am I getting trolled?

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

It was not getting Bregman and Alonso. It was trading Devers the year before.  It was ignoring the need for slg.  It was rolling over the mostly same hitter group that fell on their face last year.

I completely reject your premise that this is the lens of how he should be graded.  He should be graded that he is now entering year 5 and has no reg season finish above 3rd and no playoff series wins.  Its not like this is his first offseason.

But just to clarify,

• you do agree that Crochet, Story, Duran, and Anthony underperformed by 16.9 bWAR from their 2025 numbers, and,
• you do agree that the 2026 additions of Contreras, Durbin, Gray, Bennett & Suarez, combined for a 14.8 bWAR?

I just need to make sure my abacus doesn't need new batteries.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But just to clarify,

• you do agree that Crochet, Story, Duran, and Anthony underperformed by 16.9 bWAR from their 2025 numbers, and,
• you do agree that the 2026 additions of Contreras, Durbin, Gray, Bennett & Suarez, combined for a 14.8 bWAR?

I just need to make sure my abacus doesn't need new batteries.

The team lacked thump, and that proved to be their undoing.  They were borderline unwatchable the final 1/4 of the season. I saw it coming. Thats what I know.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I havent fully accepted that, but I see it as a potential roadblock.  Im hoping that they understand that payroll will clear as various contracts expire.  Also, inflation and the elephant in the room that we dont know how the ownership vs players will settle.

I'd be very surprised if they break the 2nd threshold since they are even being stingy with the coaching hires due to what they are still on the hook for with the Cora guys. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd be very surprised if they break the 2nd threshold since they are even being stingy with the coaching hires due to what they are still on the hook for with the Cora guys. 

I dunno, they are spending hugely on Liverpool.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The team lacked thump, and that proved to be their undoing.  They were borderline unwatchable the final 1/4 of the season. I saw it coming. Thats what I know.

That shouldn’t even be a question, because that was quite obvious.

[drewski6]

We dont know; however, if they will even have the ability to go above the 2nd theshold - as it might become a hard cap.