2026 MLB post-Red Sox postseason thread

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It took me a lot longer than I anticipated to get you here, but we finally agree.  Nine good hitters is the way to go.  Hopefully that concludes our discussion.

But I would like at lest 2 of them to be great.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I know defense doesn't count for you as much as most of us, but Mead at 3B is scary. Sogard/Monasterio is too.

Arias & Durbin for DLC. Sign Sato and call it a day.

1. Anthony LF

2. Mead DH/2B

3. Sato 3B

4. DLC SS

5. Contreras 1B

6. Abreu RF

7. Rutschman C

8. Yoshida DH/ Story 2B

9. Rafaela CF

That team could win the division.

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yup and he should have gotten Bregman and Alonso, and we wouldnt have been third place and a snack for a team that was a snack for the rays.

Because their 10.7 bWAR is so much higher than Contreras + Durbin's 9.0?  Not to mention that the extra salary is roughly what it cost us for Gray + Suarez.  There is absolutely no chance that you can choose Alonso + Bregman over Contreras + Durbin + $45M.  And that doesn't even include that there is a good chance Alonso & Bregman won't be viable players at age 35 & 36.

[NHNative]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That team could win the division.

I agree--that would be strong and maybe even perfect. Enough batting and we would still have a league leading defense.....BUT...Durbin.

I realize he is short enuf to sit on a curb and dangle his feet, but.....

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But I would like at lest 2 of them to be great.

Is Contreras' .901 'great'?  If so, then I think we are in agreement.  But IMO, losing Abreu for Elly, while an upgrade, is not a difference-maker.  If you could move Arias + non-current parts, then I'm cool.  We're already on shaky grounds in the OF as is.  Duran, if we keep him, is a complete question mark.  Anthony is a half question mark.  I'd say we really only have 2.5 outfielders, and cannot afford to make that only 1.5 outfielders.  And we cannot upgrade to Elly at SS, and then gut that additional production by starting Story someplace else.

[mvp 78]

CLE just won today because of a 2 run HR. How could they do this to OBP? 

[NHNative]

I am watching yesterday's Brew/Dodg game.

I call the Brew for a WS win.

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I agree--that would be strong and maybe even perfect. Enough batting and we would still have a league leading defense.....BUT...Durbin.

I realize he is short enuf to sit on a curb and dangle his feet, but.....

It's not like I can't trade Durbin, but he needs to be treated as a 4.4 bWAR player.

[NHNative]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

It's not like I can't trade Durbin, but he needs to be treated as a 4.4 bWAR player.

Short guys have to try harder. He is worth more than numbers show.

He is a guy who will play 101% every day and that kind of effort is catchy.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

CLE just won today because of a 2 run HR. How could they do this to OBP? 

That's the way that works.  But they are still #27 in HRs, and behind the RS.  If you are okay with the RS being #27 in HRs, then just say so.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, NHNative said:

BTW---I want Bauers and Mitchell

You probably wanted Pablito, too.

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Is Contreras' .901 'great'?  If so, then I think we are in agreement.  But IMO, losing Abreu for Elly, while an upgrade, is not a difference-maker.  If you could move Arias + non-current parts, then I'm cool.  We're already on shaky grounds in the OF as is.  Duran, if we keep him, is a complete question mark.  Anthony is a half question mark.  I'd say we really only have 2.5 outfielders, and cannot afford to make that only 1.5 outfielders.  And we cannot upgrade to Elly at SS, and then gut that additional production by starting Story someplace else.

Yes, 2 more bats, one good; one great. We can count Contreras as 1 of 2 great hitters needed.

I think you underrate Elly.  WAR is subjective, thats why 2 different sources can vary wildly.  But I think Elly is literally one of the best young players in baseball.  Im okay if we can get Elly without giving up Tolle, Durbin, Abreu ... But Im not sure how.  If they do it for like Arias and Bennett and Duran + money eaten, great.  BUt I dont see it.  I just want to improve, because Im sick of losing to the yanks in playoffs.  And I think the area we need to improve the most is slg.  Not just homeruns. But doubles and triples too.  

[NHNative]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You probably wanted Pablito, too.

Lopez?

[drewski6]

Hayden Mullins, Mikey Romero, Duran, a burger king franchise, arias, and Brooks Bannon for Elly.  Im willing to upgrade that BK to a Longhorns steak house too.  

[NHNative]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im okay if we can get Elly without giving up Tolle, Durbin, Abreu ... But Im not sure how.  If they do it for like Arias and Bennett and Duran + money eaten, great. 

I am good with this.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Lopez?

Pablo Sandoval after his great playoff numbers with the Giants.

[NHNative]

That was a good game---one away from the pennant!

Write it down...The Brew takes the WS.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hayden Mullins, Mikey Romero, Duran, a burger king franchise, arias, and Brooks Bannon for Elly.  Im willing to upgrade that BK to a Longhorns steak house too.  

Then, we woke up.

While I'd do the Arias + Abreu for DLC deal, it does lessen the addition by subtracting Abreu.

Wilyer's .780 three year OPS is best on the Sox. We'd have to sign Suzuki or Sato to gain in the OF after losing Abreu.

Arias + Durbin and maybe Valera would be less of a hit to the offense, as Mead at 3B, although a big loss on D, should be a plus on O at 3B, too. The issue here would be Story at SS and Sogard/Romy/Seigler at 2B. Again, a sato add would  improve our infield offense by leaps and bounds.

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then, we woke up.

While I'd do the Arias + Abreu for DLC deal, it does lessen the addition by subtracting Abreu.

Wilyer's .780 three year OPS is best on the Sox. We'd have to sign Suzuki or Sato to gain in the OF after losing Abreu.

Arias + Durbin and maybe Valera would be less of a hit to the offense, as Mead at 3B, although a big loss on D, should be a plus on O at 3B, too. The issue here would be Story at SS and Sogard/Romy/Seigler at 2B. Again, a sato add would  improve our infield offense by leaps and bounds.

Abreu has disappeared last 2 playoff series, and its not something thats going to cause me to just give him away.....But his like .150 OPS (like 1 / 12 , with a single) in the postseason is certainly annoying.  I would entertain including him but I like him.

Its hard because we keep losing in teh playoffs so early that our guys have playoff stats but on tiny samples.  But them being so bad in the small samples is why they have such small samples, cuz they keep stinking.

[drewski6]

Good discussions today, all

[NHNative]

I was willing to change my position on Duran, but Not Durbin.

Maybe my mind will change. I am not a numbers guy like you guys.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Abreu has disappeared last 2 playoff series, and its not something thats going to cause me to just give him away.....But his like .150 OPS (like 1 / 12 , with a single) in the postseason is certainly annoying.  I would entertain including him but I like him.

Its hard because we keep losing in teh playoffs so early that our guys have playoff stats but on tiny samples.  But them being so bad in the small samples is why they have such small samples, cuz they keep stinking.

Sorry, but no 12 PA sample sizes convinces me of anything. It doesn't even concern me a smidgeon.

Having a good playoff series or two is not a skillset or a repeatable skill.

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Good discussions today, all

Agreed, even for a few days.

Even the major disagreements have been civil and IMO, we aren't as far apart as it might appear we are.

I think we all want to add an elite bat. We saw how our 4 rings were won. We had 2+ good to great SP'ers, a top closer and 1-2 elite bats with very few holes in the 1-9 slots, if any.

We currently have 3 good to great SP'ers, the best 1-2 pen punch in MLB, 3 GG or near GG defenders and nobody really crappy, unless we go with Story at SS, but we have only one elite bat, and he's 36 next year. We don't have blackholes with everyone healthy, but IMO, we need an elite bat without downgrading another slot by much. Two significant improvements could do the same but seems more complicated and costly.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Ummm, I didn't use just OPS. I listed HRs, and many times have used runs scored- just not this time.

OBP and SLG are both large drivers in having a good offense. I know adding the two equally is not perfect as some parts get duplicated while others get less attention that they deserve, but to me, it tells a better story than any other singular offensive stat/metric.

HRs alone doesn't

RBIs alone doesn't

BA doesnt.

OBP is better than any above and so is SLG.

Both those stats miss the PA totals so can be deceptive. A 1.000 OPS guy with 300 PAs is not as helpful as a 600 PA guy with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I get that.

To me OPS and wRC+ are the two best stats for offense, but not many understand wRC+, so I avoid using it much.

IMO, WAR is the best single number that can be used to evaluate the total value of a player. Personally, I like averaging bWAR with fWAR, but that takes too much time and effort.

 

So who would have helped the Red Sox the most this past year with the numbers they put up this past year? Con Man, Alonso, or Flintstone? I repeat with the numbers they put up this past year.🤔

[JoeBrady]

42 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think you underrate Elly.

Wrong.

• He's already really good (not great) but only 24.277.  He could have another year or two of growth/experience.
• I don't think he has some of the issues that some other uber-athletes have (like ONeil Cruz).
• His K/W continues to improve, going from 4.11 to 3.16 to 2.70 to 2.43.
• His EV and FB% took substantial jumps last year.  I'm an agnostic on FB%, but I consider his 26.4% to be a prime number.
• On this last one, it's above my pay grade, but he seems like a happy camper.  I like guys that like to play, but the FO has to do the homework to see what he's like in the clubhouse.
• He's not really replacing anyone.  There might be guys in the clubhouse that everyone likes, and it's a negative to replace them.  But no matter how good Arias might become, he isn't one of us yet.  And no matter what one thinks of Story, no one will be upset replacing him with Elly.
• What would put me over the top, however, is if he came with an extension.  Again, it is homework time in the FO.  Maybe he has some negatives I am unaware of.  But he reminds me of Tatis.  Setting aside the PEDs issue, he seems like a sinewy type of athlete that could give us ten years before the decline.  If he passes the character test, give him $400M/10, plus the control years, pound down a few shots or puffs or whatever, hurl, and you just might wake up in the morning with a HOF-level 25 year old kid.

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Abreu has disappeared last 2 playoff series,

Bregman is 6-26 with -0- HRs in the past three years.  I don't consider an issue.

[JoeBrady]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sorry, but no 12 PA sample sizes convinces me of anything. It doesn't even concern me a smidgeon.

Having a good playoff series or two is not a skillset or a repeatable skill.

 

Bonds was one of the worst playoff performers in history, until he wasn't.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I was willing to change my position on Duran, but Not Durbin.

Maybe my mind will change. I am not a numbers guy like you guys.

I think Durbin has room to improve on offense, and his size does not bother me. Lack of power either, as long as we gain power elsewhere.

Some reasons for optimism:

1. A 101 OPS+ in your first 1100 MLB PAs is pretty good, despite being  25 and 26 years old.

2. While 24 HRs is not great, 75 XBHs is not a weak batter.

3. A .794 OPS over the last 102 games of 2026 is no tiny sample size. (409 PAs) To be fair, he was at .621 in his last 120 PAs. BTW, that 102 game sample size pro-rates to .278  25 93 over 650 PAs.

4. He is just now entering peak prime years of age 27-30.

Being a GG or near GG defender at 3B has real value.

20 SBs is not bad, either. I don't recall too many base-running blunders.

I'd rather upgrade SS or DH/LF.

[NHNative]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Durbin has room to improve on offense, and his size does not bother me. Lack of power either, as long as we gain power elsewhere.

Some reasons for optimism:

1. A 101 OPS+ in your first 1100 MLB PAs is pretty good, despite being  25 and 26 years old.

2. While 24 HRs is not great, 75 XBHs is not a weak batter.

3. A .794 OPS over the last 102 games of 2026 is no tiny sample size. (409 PAs) To be fair, he was at .621 in his last 120 PAs. BTW, that 102 game sample size pro-rates to .278  25 93 over 650 PAs.

4. He is just now entering peak prime years of age 27-30.

Being a GG or near GG defender at 3B has real value.

20 SBs is not bad, either. I don't recall too many base-running blunders.

I'd rather upgrade SS or DH/LF.

Amen! Add to this the attitude thing I mention. His work ethic and attitude can make a huge impact on others. Hey guys, we can't let the short guy beat us out.

LOL

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

So who would have helped the Red Sox the most this past year with the numbers they put up this past year? Con Man, Alonso, or Flintstone? I repeat with the numbers they put up this past year.🤔

1. Schwarber

2T Alonso & Contreras

It was closer than I expected and the money saved helped us pay part of Gray or Suarez's contract.

Nobody has the answer on who might have helped us vs the Yanks in a two game sample. Nobody can predict how anyone will do in October. You try to build a team that promises to do well, and then let them play the game. Brez left us short and then made a couple bold attempts at making up for it. The Mead injury hurt a lot- maybe even more than Anthony's failed attempt at a return

That's not to say Brez didn't make any mistakes. I have been in total agreement with those who felt we left a major hole on offense by the start of the season. I remember even saying at the time, trying to fix it at the deadline will likely be more costly and is usually for just rentals. Brez did well not to go for rentals, but the overpay became even more extreme.

I think our projected line up in 2027 looks better than opening day 2026, opening day 2024 and pretty close to the opening day 2025 line-up with Bregman and Devers.

Remember, you asked me to look at the 2025 numbers to make the call on Schwarber, Alonso & Contreras, so I ask you to look at Bregman's past 2-3 year totals before 2025 to judge that line-up.

What's your take? Is our 2027 projected line-up better?

1. Anthony LF/DH

2. Mead 2B

3. Abreu RF

4. Contreras 1B

5. AR C

6. Story SS

7. Yoshida/Duran LF/ Gasper DH/ Romy-Jones DH

8. Durbin 3B

9. Rafaela RF

I'm fine with saying this isn't good enough, but IMO, it is better, more balanced and the bench much better than the team handed to Brez.

The pitching & defense is light years better.