2026 MLB post-Red Sox postseason thread

[drewski6]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Strikeouts are only forgivable if you are taking walks.  Almost no hitter survives with a bad K/W.  Of the 42 batters with an OPS > .800 in the past 5 years, 36 of them had a BB/K of > 40%.  Of the top-19, all of them had a BB/K > 40%.

Not all strikeouts are the same is my point. I want guys aggressive and proactive.  Looking to hunt the pitcher, not doing what they can to not strike out and maybe earn a walk.  Thats for 8,9 hitters.  I dont want that approach from anyone who I am counting on to drive offense.

But if two approaches are the same, teh better hitter will generally have less strikeouts and a better OBP.  My point is dont revolve your philosophy around minimizing k's and drawing walks....Cuz you'll get what we got.  A lot of mistake pitches getting taken.  A mistake pitch can be a ball, btw.  A changeup that is inside, as in a ball, should still be swung at.  Its still a meatball.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ummm, I didn't use just OPS. I listed HRs, and many times have used runs scored- just not this time.

OBP and SLG are both large drivers in having a good offense. I know adding the two equally is not perfect as some parts get duplicated while others get less attention that they deserve, but to me, it tells a better story than any other singular offensive stat/metric.

HRs alone doesn't

RBIs alone doesn't

BA doesnt.

OBP is better than any above and so is SLG.

Both those stats miss the PA totals so can be deceptive. A 1.000 OPS guy with 300 PAs is not as helpful as a 600 PA guy with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I get that.

To me OPS and wRC+ are the two best stats for offense, but not many understand wRC+, so I avoid using it much.

IMO, WAR is the best single number that can be used to evaluate the total value of a player. Personally, I like averaging bWAR with fWAR, but that takes too much time and effort.

 

These metrics, in terms of how they rank against each other, change quite a bit over a three year period.  Right now, there is a very real reason why teams are chasing slg more than OBP.  But also, you have to keep in mind, that they help each other.  Extra base hits help OBP and singles help slg.  

But also, counting stats have increased in usefulness.  For example, there is a real reason why the Red sox were like 12th in OBP and like 26th in runs and it wasnt bad luck, clutch, or injuries.  It was because we needed an average of three hits + walks to score a single run, among the lowest in the majors.

And that happens because we are trying to not strike out too much or trying to work counts too much and not swinging the bat at mistake pitches enough.  Fried left so many hittable pitches over the zone that we took for strikes.  Merloni was sad about it.  You could hear it in his voice.  "The Red Sox are not taking advantage of a lot of hittable mistakes"

 

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Rays top three guys are better than the Sox top three -- not just because of homers, but because they're better hitters period. That right there is a big reason Tampa won the East.

The Rays top-2 ranked #10/16 in OBP/OPS.  The RS ranked 30/30, which naturally leads to being #30 in runs scored in the 1/2 slots.  And being 29th in runs scored in the 1st inning.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The Rays top-2 ranked #10/16 in OBP/OPS.  The RS ranked 30/30, which naturally leads to being #30 in runs scored in the 1/2 slots.  And being 29th in runs scored in the 1st inning.

Yeah, but the solution is not try to draw more walks or juggle the batting order.  Its that we didnt have enough good hitters.  ANd I dont think we can count on Anthony to stay healthy. This is my point.  We need much better hitters.  Not to get more passive.

Breslow talks about working with the group of guys we have to unlock more out of them.  I assure you , hes not going to coach them up on why they need to swing less.

[drewski6]

I would like to see the red sox find a way to add 3 good hitters, and Im willing to count Mead/Roman as a combined one of the three.  But you should not have your catcher hitting second.  You should not have sub .850 guys hitting 1,2,3.  We are trying to score by arranging our pieces strategically, and its not going to work. We need to upgrade our pieces.

Arias and Durbin for Elly would be perfect.  Sign Suzuki.

Roman

Suzuki

Elly

Contreras

Abreu

Mead

Adley

Story

Cedanne

Thats an offense , really, as good as any.  And Im here for it.

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats for 8,9 hitters.

No, it is for hitters that are not HR hitters.  And even the best HR hitters are selective.  I took the top 4 guys I could think of and compared them to the league average for 1st pitch/total ABs.

• League 12.4%
• Schwarber 9.3%
• Soto       11.8%
• Alonso   10.5%
• Ohtani   13.4%

They aren't out there hacking around.  This is exactly why they are successful.  They force pitchers to throw them strikes.

[NHNative]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would like to see the red sox find a way to add 3 good hitters, and Im willing to count Mead/Roman as a combined one of the three.  But you should not have your catcher hitting second.  You should not have sub .850 guys hitting 1,2,3.  We are trying to score by arranging our pieces strategically, and its not going to work. We need to upgrade our pieces.

Arias and Durbin for Elly would be perfect.  Sign Suzuki.

Roman

Suzuki

Elly

Contreras

Abreu

Mead

Adley

Story

Cedanne

Thats an offense , really, as good as any.  And Im here for it.

I wouldn't give up Durbin.

Duran?

[drewski6]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

No, it is for hitters that are not HR hitters.  And even the best HR hitters are selective.  I took the top 4 guys I could think of and compared them to the league average for 1st pitch/total ABs.

• League 12.4%
• Schwarber 9.3%
• Soto       11.8%
• Alonso   10.5%
• Ohtani   13.4%

They aren't out there hacking around.  This is exactly why they are successful.  They force pitchers to throw them strikes.

No, you are overlooking that a ball to Scwharber, Soto, Alonso and Ohtani is different.  When you are as good as these guys you have to learn how to punish pitches that are slightly outside of the zone.  You do not pass on crushable pitches when you are this good because you are not likely to get another one.  

When teams throw a ball to Soto , its not in the same place as when they throw a ball to Durbin.  Its almost comical how high/low it is, when going to these guys.  Did you see the ball that Jose Ramirez hit for a HR, it was at his shoelaces.

If the pitch is hittable, you want your great hitters swinging.  Their walk totals are high because they have plenty of at bats when they dont get a hittable pitch at all.  Come to the plate ready and looking to swing.  Thats why 5GG is getting sick of hearing the word "ambush", because this is modern philosophy.  They teach you that a 0-0 is a fastball count.  But maybe not to a guy like Soto or Ohtani, cuz the pitcher is trying to dance around them.

its easy to draw walks if you are Soto or Ohtani, a lot of the time you dont even get a choice.  Pitchers arent just missing to these guys.  The ball is 3 ft off the plate.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Strikeouts are only forgivable if you are taking walks.  Almost no hitter survives with a bad K/W.  Of the 42 batters with an OPS > .800 in the past 5 years, 36 of them had a BB/K of > 40%.  Of the top-19, all of them had a BB/K > 40%.

Lots of homers and XBHs can make up for high K rates, too, but it gets sketchy. Here are the best OPS numbers by the lowest BB/K players in MLB the last 2 years (600+ PAs)

BB/K Player OPS

0.16 Harris II .744

0.17 Story .706

0.19 Moniak .792

0.20 Carpenter .754

0.21 Rafaela .736 (GG helps)

0.23 Dingler .750

0.23 C Schmidt .749

0.24 Goodman .841 (playing in COL helps)

Only .750+ listed from here...

0.25 H Bader .752

0.27 E Suarez .788

0,28 J Merrill .756

0.28 J Pena .822 (might be the only true exception)

0.28 Neto .788 (maybe the second one?)

0.29 Buxton .857 (can't stay on the field)

0.29 L Garcia .767

Only .800+ listed from 0.30...

0.30 BLowe .806

0.30 Laureano .798 (close enough

0.33 R Greene .824

0.33 PCA .859 (likely MVP)

0.35 Stowers .847

0.37 Willson .844

0.39 DLC .825 (I'll take him)

0.39 Arozarena .811

The first player with a higher OPS than all these guys is Alonso at 0.41 and .878.

There are some good hitters under 0.40.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I wouldn't give up Durbin.

Duran?

Not nearly enough.  I would not let 5'5 Durbin stop me from getting the 6'6 Elly who is stronger, faster, a better hitter, more athletic, a real freak of nature vs Durbin who is a small guy but does best he can with his limited toolset. 

I dont hate Durbin, but hes not a guy I let stop me from getting an MVP type player.

[drewski6]

Very often, the most hittable pitch you will get is the first pitch of an at bat. This is why people wont stop using the word ambush.  

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yeah, but the solution is not try to draw more walks or juggle the batting order.  Its that we didnt have enough good hitters.  ANd I dont think we can count on Anthony to stay healthy. This is my point.  We need much better hitters.  Not to get more passive.

Breslow talks about working with the group of guys we have to unlock more out of them.  I assure you , hes not going to coach them up on why they need to swing less.

Yes and no.  For #1/2 hitters, you get on base any way you can.

On the second part, I agree.  We need more good hitters (this we hopefully covered with Mead & Rutschman, and maybe a full year from Anthony).  Where I disagree is that good hitting can be defined any number of ways.

[NHNative]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not nearly enough.  I would not let 5'5 Durbin stop me from getting the 6'6 Elly who is stronger, faster, a better hitter, more athletic, a real freak of nature vs Durbin who is a small guy but does best he can with his limited toolset. 

I dont hate Durbin, but hes not a guy I let stop me from getting an MVP type player.

Size aside---he has been great for the team.

If he is easy to let go, why is he worth so much?

[drewski6]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Yes and no.  For #1/2 hitters, you get on base any way you can.

On the second part, I agree.  We need more good hitters (this we hopefully covered with Mead & Rutschman, and maybe a full year from Anthony).  Where I disagree is that good hitting can be defined any number of ways.

Nope, thats folklore.  And its dated.  Getting on base any way you can is not what a #1 and #2 hitters do. Thats what #8 and #9 hitters do.  You want your best hitters doing damage.  And your top 2 hitters are going to be among your best.

The strategy of just get on base is the past , not the present.  

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Size aside---he has been great for the team.

If he is easy to let go, why is he worth so much?

Hes worth about 1/3 of Elly and ARias is about 1/3.  I think my package gets denied but Im a homer.

[drewski6]

If you want to win playoff series, grinders and try-hards are going to get squeezed out by guys who are bigger, faster, more athletic. Durbin is solid, but we saw what happens when we settle for solid.  Id be open to keeping Durbin , but you get Elly if you can.  Hes one of the best in the entire MLB.  And Durbin just doesnt have his speed, strenght, size, athleticism.  

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Arias and Durbin for Elly would be perfect.

I know the value is likely there.  But if you add up the projected OPS of Story + Elly, is it any better than Arias + Durbin?  Give Elly an .850, and Durbin and Arias .725 each.  That means Story has to have .600 just to break even on OPS.  Elly will hit an additional 17 HRs over Durbin, but will that make up for Story's .621 OPS.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, there is some likelihood that Story's performance could undermine the performance from a lot of players we might reasonably expect.

[JoeBrady]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

When you are as good as these guys you have to learn how to punish pitches that are slightly outside of the zone. 

I can agree with that.  But they still aren't hacking away.  They are very selective.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not nearly enough.  I would not let 5'5 Durbin stop me from getting the 6'6 Elly who is stronger, faster, a better hitter, more athletic, a real freak of nature vs Durbin who is a small guy but does best he can with his limited toolset. 

I dont hate Durbin, but hes not a guy I let stop me from getting an MVP type player.

I know defense doesn't count for you as much as most of us, but Mead at 3B is scary. Sogard/Monasterio is too.

Arias & Durbin for DLC. Sign Sato and call it a day.

1. Anthony LF

2. Mead DH/2B

3. Sato 3B

4. DLC SS

5. Contreras 1B

6. Abreu RF

7. Rutschman C

8. Yoshida DH/ Story 2B

9. Rafaela CF

[NHNative]

And Durbin is a known and tough and I would say a benefit in the locker room.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Nope, thats folklore.  And its dated.  Getting on base any way you can is not what a #1 and #2 hitters do. Thats what #8 and #9 hitters do.  You want your best hitters doing damage.  And your top 2 hitters are going to be among your best.

The strategy of just get on base is the past , not the present.  

Nope. The modern was is the #1 is OBP and the #2 is your best all around. Yes, power and XBH, but also OBP. He's not your best or your #2 with a .305 OBP.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Very often, the most hittable pitch you will get is the first pitch of an at bat. This is why people wont stop using the word ambush.  

Swing rate across MLB on 0-0 is only 32.5%. 

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And its dated.  Getting on base any way you can is not what a #1 and #2 hitters do.

Dated in what way?  In 2026, the best OBP is from the 2-hole.  The 2nd best OBP is from the 1-hole.  And maybe it's a fluke, but the OBP is almost perfectly aligned with the batting order.  3=3, 4=4, etc.  Managers still put their best OBP guys 1/2.  And even when they use a slugger in the 1/2 hole, it is generally because they are also the guys with the good OBP.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I know the value is likely there.  But if you add up the projected OPS of Story + Elly, is it any better than Arias + Durbin?  Give Elly an .850, and Durbin and Arias .725 each.  That means Story has to have .600 just to break even on OPS.  Elly will hit an additional 17 HRs over Durbin, but will that make up for Story's .621 OPS.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, there is some likelihood that Story's performance could undermine the performance from a lot of players we might reasonably expect.

You'll pencil in for Story at 621 again, but are going to assume 725 for Arias in his first season???

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, NHNative said:

And Durbin is a known and tough and I would say a benefit in the locker room.

I don't mind upgrading on Durbin, but I see 2 slots more deserving of upgrades- considering offense as a major aspect of any upgrade.

SS

DH/LF (non Anthony slot)

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Dated in what way?  In 2026, the best OBP is from the 2-hole.  The 2nd best OBP is from the 1-hole.  And maybe it's a fluke, but the OBP is almost perfectly aligned with the batting order.  3=3, 4=4, etc.  Managers still put their best OBP guys 1/2.  And even when they use a slugger in the 1/2 hole, it is generally because they are also the guys with the good OBP.

The best OBP is from the 2 hole because your best hitter is in the 2 hole and they generally have great OBPs.  Not becasue they are trying to just get on base any way they can.

[drewski6]

Guys, no way Reds accept ARias and Durbin for Elly.  Wed have to throw in a ton more.  BUt we need superstars, cuz we have 0 on teh offensive side of the ball.

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Swing rate across MLB on 0-0 is only 32.5%. 

Thats not microscopic. What is swing rate overall?

[drewski6]

Man you guys are pure pros at talking yourselves out of getting maybe the best player in MLB 25 yrs old.  Elly is way better than literally everyone on our team

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nope. The modern was is the #1 is OBP and the #2 is your best all around. Yes, power and XBH, but also OBP. He's not your best or your #2 with a .305 OBP.

The modern is that batting order doesnt matter very much, and you arent trying to arrange pieces strategically. Modern is nine good hitters.