A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Probably none, which is why Sox fans shouldn’t.  The Cubs had a worse postseason than Boston and were less than thrilled with the outcome, but their most common complaint was having to get Peacock subscriptions to watch both games, not that the team should have bailed and built for the future.

So a 32-5 run is lucky? Thats just sad and stupid.  Yeah, they luckily swept the Yankees, Rays, Dodgers, White Sox (twice) and numerous other teams.  I suppose you need to call it luck to fit a stupid argument by Cotillo…

Sad, and stupid is saying it’s sad, and stupid. Winning 15 straight is a once in a lifetime thing that had  only been done once before in 1946 to get to that 32-5 run. If it’s so sad, and stupid why had it only been done once before by a team that had Ted Williams on it, and was better for it’s time than a bunch of P&P players. What was the Red Sox record on either side of that 32-5 run? That’s more of what the team really was, and not the 32-5 team.

[drewski6]

And then the Yankees turned around and got swept!  I dont think we can blame running into a machine as the reason we are one and done. 

[mvp 78]

They lost because their offense disappeared and their bullpen became a mess down the stretch (even though they were relying heavily on it).

Whitlock - injury

Slaten - injury

Guerrero - injury

Miller - ineffective

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

For the last 8 years, since we got rid of Dombrowski, people have been hesitant to get hitters to contracts that could go south 4 years down the line.,...

Completely overlooking that since we've developed that mindset as an org and fanbase, to go max efficiency, we've finished an average of fourth place over 7-8 years and have only gotten past the first round of the playoffs once.

Maybe some of us have defense , chase value, and focus on homegrown youngsters fatigue.  Arias is a 5'11 D first SS.  I dont think hes coming to save the singles hitting, walk drawing, plate passives that the Red Sox have become.

I'm all for signing batters to longer deals, but I'm pretty sure we won't outbid everyone for the best ones, I don't have a mind set that is against the idea, but I try to be realistic about projections. I often suggest we sign the large and long ones.

If Arias is as good on D as I hear, I'm okay if he never hits 20 dingers.

I am for a serious upgrade for a big bat to compensate for Arias and a few other mid-power players up and down our projected line-up.

I do think we have already upgraded our offense over the summer, but the Mead injury on day one pushed his plus contribution to 2027. I'm also hopeful AR and Anthony gan give us full seasons we did not see in 2026.

I realize we will likely have injuries, again, but I think we are well-prepared for any major injury, except at Catcher.

1B: Contreras> Mead> Gasper/Romy/Sogard/Casas

2B: Mead> Story> Seigler/Sogard/Romy/Monasterio

3B: Durbin> Mead/Story> Sogard/Monasterio/Eaton

LF: Anthony> Duran> Yoshida/White/Jones/KC

CF: Rafaela> Duran/Anthony> White/Ward/KC

RF: Abreu> Anthony> KC/Ward

DH: Anthony/Mead/Story> Gasper/Romy, Casas/Jones

 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Durbin could be a starting 3b, but he better be hitting 8th or 9th! The problem is that this lineup also had holes at SS, 2B, C (Wong), LF (Duran) and DH for most of the year. Hard to sneak 5 bats into the 7 - 9 spots. 

My point is count on injuries, and so we should open the year with nine plus hitters so by the end of it , we have 5.  Its like people want 8 good SP because we've all learned that 5 isnt enough, but everybody just shrugs and says thats the way the cookie crumbles when its batter injuries.

This is exactly what I mean when I say that true depth is having multiple fearsome sluggers and Ben Rice actually backs up Judge.  And Moon, said I disagree, positions , positions, positions, positions, lets break it down by position.

And Im like Rice is Judges backup because 2025 it was Judge hitting nail in the coffin homeruns in the playoffs and in 2026 it was Rice hitting nail in the coffin playoff runs , sinking us , doing the damage because Judge was hurt.  And that matters way more than who plays what position.

Any slugger is welcomed by me.  And if someone has to change positions or get moved from starting to next man up, to fit him in thats fine.

If you star the year with your bottom 3 hitters being noodle bats, you will end the year with your bottom 6 hitters being noodle bats.  And thats the mistake we keep failing to correct since weve become the fourth place out of 5 on average plate passives that we became 7-8 years ago when we got rid of DD and started dumping slug every year.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm all for signing batters to longer deals, but I'm pretty sure we won't outbid everyone for the best ones, I don't have a mind set that is against the idea, but I try to be realistic about projections. I often suggest we sign the large and long ones.

If Arias is as good on D as I hear, I'm okay if he never hits 20 dingers.

I am for a serious upgrade for a big bat to compensate for Arias and a few other mid-power players up and down our projected line-up.

I do think we have already upgraded our offense over the summer, but the Mead injury on day one pushed his plus contribution to 2027. I'm also hopeful AR and Anthony gan give us full seasons we did not see in 2026.

I realize we will likely have injuries, again, but I think we are well-prepared for any major injury, except at Catcher.

1B: Contreras> Mead> Gasper/Romy/Sogard/Casas

2B: Mead> Story> Seigler/Sogard/Romy/Monasterio

3B: Durbin> Mead/Story> Sogard/Monasterio/Eaton

LF: Anthony> Duran> Yoshida/White/Jones/KC

CF: Rafaela> Duran/Anthony> White/Ward/KC

RF: Abreu> Anthony> KC/Ward

DH: Anthony/Mead/Story> Gasper/Romy, Casas/Jones

 

YAY. POSITIONS!!!

[drewski6]

Depth isnt having capable back ups.  Well, at least thats not all of it.  Its also about having multiple elite hitters, so you have as many as possible by end of year.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And then the Yankees turned around and got swept!  I dont think we can blame running into a machine as the reason we are one and done. 

As I said before the Red Sox couldn’t beat a Judgeless Yankees, and a Judgeless Yankees couldn’t beat the Rays.

[drewski6]

Just now, Old Red said:

As I said before the Red Sox couldn’t beat a Judgeless Yankees, and a Judgeless Yankees couldn’t beat the Rays.

Yep. And a team with elite pitching and defense couldnt finish higher than third.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My point is count on injuries, and so we should open the year with nine plus hitters so by the end of it , we have 5.  Its like people want 8 good SP because we've all learned that 5 isnt enough, but everybody just shrugs and says thats the way the cookie crumbles when its batter injuries.

This is exactly what I mean when I say that true depth is having multiple fearsome sluggers and Ben Rice actually backs up Judge.  And Moon, said I disagree, positions , positions, positions, positions, lets break it down by position.

And Im like Rice is Judges backup because 2025 it was Judge hitting nail in the coffin homeruns in the playoffs and in 2026 it was Rice hitting nail in the coffin playoff runs , sinking us , doing the damage because Judge was hurt.  And that matters way more than who plays what position.

Any slugger is welcomed by me.  And if someone has to change positions or get moved from starting to next man up, to fit him in thats fine.

If you star the year with your bottom 3 hitters being noodle bats, you will end the year with your bottom 6 hitters being noodle bats.  And thats the mistake we keep failing to correct since weve become the fourth place out of 5 on average plate passives that we became 7-8 years ago when we got rid of DD and started dumping slug every year.

Good points.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Yep. And a team with elite pitching and defense couldnt finish higher than third.

Bingo! And we’re still looking for a power bat, or two. Seems to me there were some available last off-season too.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm all for signing batters to longer deals, but I'm pretty sure we won't outbid everyone for the best ones, I don't have a mind set that is against the idea, but I try to be realistic about projections. I often suggest we sign the large and long ones.

If Arias is as good on D as I hear, I'm okay if he never hits 20 dingers.

I am for a serious upgrade for a big bat to compensate for Arias and a few other mid-power players up and down our projected line-up.

I do think we have already upgraded our offense over the summer, but the Mead injury on day one pushed his plus contribution to 2027. I'm also hopeful AR and Anthony gan give us full seasons we did not see in 2026.

I realize we will likely have injuries, again, but I think we are well-prepared for any major injury, except at Catcher.

1B: Contreras> Mead> Gasper/Romy/Sogard/Casas

2B: Mead> Story> Seigler/Sogard/Romy/Monasterio

3B: Durbin> Mead/Story> Sogard/Monasterio/Eaton

LF: Anthony> Duran> Yoshida/White/Jones/KC

CF: Rafaela> Duran/Anthony> White/Ward/KC

RF: Abreu> Anthony> KC/Ward

DH: Anthony/Mead/Story> Gasper/Romy, Casas/Jones

 

Contreras - will be 35 yrs old, kind of a headcase
Mead - was heading for bust ville, but then got hot for a few months, has a very weird hippity hoppity swing
Durbin - 5'3 plays a powermans position
Andthony - keeps getting hurt doing regular things, not from freak accidents.  Also, too passive at the plate, and hits the ball into the groupnd too much
Rafaela - Im a bit worried about how he keeps disappearing in the playoffs, but Ill give you this.  Fine.  Now that doesnt mean I dont get a slugging CF if I can.  One can play a different OF position
Abrea - see Rafaela

(And note if you go into the playoffs hoping cedanne and abreu will be two plus hitters come playoffs so you can live with noodlebats elsewhere - that keeps not happening ....Cedanne and Abreu have like a combined .400 career playoff OPS)

Anthony/Mead/Story - this is just you putting other players that you already said at DH.  

Your team that is "well equipped to handle injuries" is not a real threat to win it all.  Im not looking for a team that can lose a couple contributors to injuries and still finish .500ish.

 

[drewski6]

Heres what needs to change, this mentality: Starting pitching - cant have enough. Relief pitching - cant have enough.  Positional Defense - cant have enough.  OBP - Cant have enough.  SLG - I dont think we need it, heres why....

[drewski6]

Weve done it your way and the results are in.  Why not try my way? Nine sluggers.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My point is count on injuries, and so we should open the year with nine plus hitters so by the end of it , we have 5.  Its like people want 8 good SP because we've all learned that 5 isnt enough, but everybody just shrugs and says thats the way the cookie crumbles when its batter injuries.

This is exactly what I mean when I say that true depth is having multiple fearsome sluggers and Ben Rice actually backs up Judge.  And Moon, said I disagree, positions , positions, positions, positions, lets break it down by position.

And Im like Rice is Judges backup because 2025 it was Judge hitting nail in the coffin homeruns in the playoffs and in 2026 it was Rice hitting nail in the coffin playoff runs , sinking us , doing the damage because Judge was hurt.  And that matters way more than who plays what position.

Any slugger is welcomed by me.  And if someone has to change positions or get moved from starting to next man up, to fit him in thats fine.

If you star the year with your bottom 3 hitters being noodle bats, you will end the year with your bottom 6 hitters being noodle bats.  And thats the mistake we keep failing to correct since weve become the fourth place out of 5 on average plate passives that we became 7-8 years ago when we got rid of DD and started dumping slug every year.

I think it just means you have to make sure that your backups can actually hit. Romy used to be able to hit. Duran used to be able to hit. Gasper hit this season. Just don't fill your bench with David Hamiltons. Go find the next Rob Refsnyder.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I know he was a trade and not a FA, but end of day, Contreras was a low cost add due to his age and 1-2 yr commitment.  And that was an example of it working out.  But the issue is for all we added with Contreras , we dumped more - because we fell from like 15th in slug to like 26th despite getting great numbers from Contreras.

When so many of our players were pre prime or prime going from 2025 to 2026, one would normally expect improvement, and with SLG, many players slug better in or near post prime.

2025>2026 SLG Improved:

.414>.444 Rafaela

.388>.399 Yoshida

.344>.385 Sogard

.238>.348 Wong

Not many major gains, and 3 of these guys has very limited PAs.

_____________________

SLG Declined:

.483> .303 Romy

.469>  .446 Abreu

.463> .396 Anthony

.442> .361 Duran

.433> .351 Story (.371 Monasterio)

.419> .275 Narvaez (.419 Rutschman)

.402> .312 Mayer (.400 Seagler)

As you can see, some massive drops occurred among our "keepers." I'd venture to say the drop in this group is much more significant than the change-over slots...

______________________

Changes:

.504 Devers> .516 Contreras

.486 Refsnyder> .585 Jones

.462 Bregman> .378 Durbin

.420 N Lowe/.371 Toro>.466 Gasper

.333 DHam>.311 IKF 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Contreras - will be 35 yrs old, kind of a headcase
Mead - was heading for bust ville, but then got hot for a few months, has a very weird hippity hoppity swing
Durbin - 5'3 plays a powermans position
Andthony - keeps getting hurt doing regular things, not from freak accidents.  Also, too passive at the plate, and hits the ball into the groupnd too much
Rafaela - Im a bit worried about how he keeps disappearing in the playoffs, but Ill give you this.  Fine.  Now that doesnt mean I dont get a slugging CF if I can.  One can play a different OF position
Abrea - see Rafaela

(And note if you go into the playoffs hoping cedanne and abreu will be two plus hitters come playoffs so you can live with noodlebats elsewhere - that keeps not happening ....Cedanne and Abreu have like a combined .400 career playoff OPS)

Anthony/Mead/Story - this is just you putting other players that you already said at DH.  

Your team that is "well equipped to handle injuries" is not a real threat to win it all.  Im not looking for a team that can lose a couple contributors to injuries and still finish .500ish.

 

Good summation. little A is too impassive at the plate. Those check swings can be detrimental to your health.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it just means you have to make sure that your backups can actually hit. Romy used to be able to hit. Duran used to be able to hit. Gasper hit this season. Just don't fill your bench with David Hamiltons. Go find the next Rob Refsnyder.

Who’s the big bopper on the team, or his backup? You someone who will hit 35-40 HOMERS, and drive inn100+ runs.

[NHNative]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who’s the big bopper on the team, or his backup? You someone who will hit 35-40 HOMERS, and drive inn100+ runs.

There ain't one....x....2.

We need them whatever it takes.

No rocket scientists need apply.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Who’s the big bopper on the team, or his backup? You someone who will hit 35-40 HOMERS, and drive inn100+ runs.

Only 11 players hit 35 HR last season. Only 5 went 35-100. People ran Devers away. Sox chose not to sign Schwarber, Alonso or Murakami last offseason. I don't think there's a chance they sign Lowe this offseason. I just don't see this team having a 35 HR guy in the near future. 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Durbin could be a starting 3b, but he better be hitting 8th or 9th! The problem is that this lineup also had holes at SS, 2B, C (Wong), LF (Duran) and DH for most of the year. Hard to sneak 5 bats into the 7 - 9 spots. 

B-I-N-G-O.

You can fit 3 in the 7-8-9 slots, and that's what Brez tried to do over the summer. BTW, Rafaela might be best in the 7 slot.

AR replaced Narvaez and some from Wong.

Mead was meant to turn the 2B slot from a sh_t show to a top 5-10 positional ranking- both on O and overall.

The SS position killed us as our HR and RBI leader crapped himself. Hard to blame Brez for not adding a top SS, especially with Arias in the wings.

The LF position was supposed to be top 5-10 and had depth (Anthony & Duran.) I can't blame Brez here, as many of us wanted him to trade the depth (Duran,) and we needed up needing it. Too bed Duran was horrible.

Thinking of the DH slot batting 7-9 just seems plain wrong. With Yoshida getting $18M and being untradable, I can understand Brez leaving it as is, and thinking Anthony could DH, if needed.

Looking at 2027, Arias may "fix" the SS position, but nobody is expecting him to give the offense a boost. One encouraging fact is that our 2026 SS OPS was just .660. Breaking even should be more than achievable.

The 2026 DH slot hit .769, so I'm not sure the premise that DH should be 7-9, but with so many injuries, we often had poor to mediocre batters in the DH slot. It's hard to know who will DH in 2027, but Yoshida could be back and maybe Anthony or Mead could DH. At worst, a Gaper-Jones platoon is not bad. A Casas-Romy platoon may surprise.

LF will depend on Anthony and maybe Duran. I can see Duran batting 7-9 but not Anthony.

 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

YAY. POSITIONS!!!

The flexibility allows us to not have be so positionally specific on who we add.

Just what you want! (I like it, too.)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 11 players hit 35 HR last season. Only 5 went 35-100. People ran Devers away. Sox chose not to sign Schwarber, Alonso or Murakami last offseason. I don't think there's a chance they sign Lowe this offseason. I just don't see this team having a 35 HR guy in the near future. 

Sato?

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 11 players hit 35 HR last season. Only 5 went 35-100. People ran Devers away. Sox chose not to sign Schwarber, Alonso or Murakami last offseason. I don't think there's a chance they sign Lowe this offseason. I just don't see this team having a 35 HR guy in the near future. 

You’re probably right on that, but the Red Scored 97 less runs in 2026 than in 2025. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, NHNative said:

There ain't one....x....2.

We need them whatever it takes.

No rocket scientists need apply.

Who is on the block?

HRs 2025-2026

101 Schwarber (156 XBH)

87 Caminero (141 XBH)

85 Ohtani (159 XBH but 99 in 2024!)

83 Raleigh (122)

81 Alonso (127 XBH)

(79 Sato with 160 XBHs- is more than any above.)

76 PCR

75 E Suarez

72 Devers & Goodman

71 Judge

70 Soto & Olson

67 Rice

66 B Lowe (FA)

61 Wood

60 Buxton & Adell

58 Suzuki (FA)

57 Machado, Torkelson & Kurtz

56 Harper & C Walker

54 J Rod, Langeliers & Busch

53 Arozena (FA,) Carroll & Neto

52 Lindor, Grisham, Abrams, de la Cruz & Montgomery

51 Adames & S Perez

50 KMarte, Tatis,Pages & Chisholm (FA)

 

[drewski6]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it just means you have to make sure that your backups can actually hit. Romy used to be able to hit. Duran used to be able to hit. Gasper hit this season. Just don't fill your bench with David Hamiltons. Go find the next Rob Refsnyder.

I think that Manny and Ortiz kind of backed up each other more than whomever would take over LF or DH if one had to miss a game or a spell of games.  But I do see the value in having capable hitters with minor league options like Gasper for example.  But still, Id like to see us go into next year, with sluggers up and down the lineup, because I dont think its realistic to think that we can have non starting players that can come in and make a difference with the bat.  But Gasper is likely one.  

[moonslav59]

HRs per 650 PA in 2026

33 Mead

32 Contreras

29 Gasper

24 Rutschman

22 Abreu

21 Duran

20 Jones

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re probably right on that, but the Red Scored 97 less runs in 2026 than in 2025. 

Story, Duran, Narvaez, Mayer all playing like dogdoo is like 75 of those runs. 

[drewski6]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When so many of our players were pre prime or prime going from 2025 to 2026, one would normally expect improvement, and with SLG, many players slug better in or near post prime.

2025>2026 SLG Improved:

.414>.444 Rafaela

.388>.399 Yoshida

.344>.385 Sogard

.238>.348 Wong

Not many major gains, and 3 of these guys has very limited PAs.

_____________________

SLG Declined:

.483> .303 Romy

.469>  .446 Abreu

.463> .396 Anthony

.442> .361 Duran

.433> .351 Story (.371 Monasterio)

.419> .275 Narvaez (.419 Rutschman)

.402> .312 Mayer (.400 Seagler)

As you can see, some massive drops occurred among our "keepers." I'd venture to say the drop in this group is much more significant than the change-over slots...

______________________

Changes:

.504 Devers> .516 Contreras

.486 Refsnyder> .585 Jones

.462 Bregman> .378 Durbin

.420 N Lowe/.371 Toro>.466 Gasper

.333 DHam>.311 IKF 

We couldnt hit in the playoffs in 2025, the offseason began with Breslow talking about how we needed to improve the offense and ended with Breslow saying "its no secret that our strength is pitching and defense", preseason expectations were for the offense as a whole to be underwhelming.  I dont subscribe to the Joe Brady excuse making train that it was a mixture of bad luck and unforeseeable drop offs.

Even Breslow told you that the strategy was to win with pitching and D. And we saw the ceiling of the team that Breslow built.  

At some point in the offseason Breslow went from talking about getting bats to talking about pitching and D.  It was at this exact moment, the future dimmed.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Durbin could be a starting 3b, but he better be hitting 8th or 9th! The problem is that this lineup also had holes at SS, 2B, C (Wong), LF (Duran) and DH for most of the year. Hard to sneak 5 bats into the 7 - 9 spots. 

This.

Both Monasterio and Sogard were in the top 8 for plate appearances.  Not a good sign when two utility infielders achieve that…