A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 hours ago, BP34Sox said:

It makes me so MAD when we get blown out by the Yankees. 9-0 and then 9-2? Come on! These losses hurt extra. I don't care if we're still in 3rd place, this is a huge feels BAD for me.

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JimEd said:

seriously? 

100% serious.

In recent years, the Sox shattered the highest contract ever given to a player, David Price, by extending Devers to nearly 50% more total money. (Yes, they traded him shortly after the contract kicked in, but still...)

They then signed a player to the highest AAV ever given out, Bregman, this time by nearly 33% more than ever given before.

The Suarez signing was that largest FA signing since Story, but at a higher AAV. The $26M AAV is the 2nd largest AAV ever given to a Sox player for more than 3 years, and it was a 5 year deal.

This is not a defense of JH and their budget-related decisions. I'm as pissed as anyone for allowing their "top targets" to continually sign elsewhere. The Bregman signing barely counts for anything, as he bolted after one year and was clearly our top target last winter. The Devers deal was not a FA signing but it did represent a major shift in decision making involving keeping our own stars- then they undid it. Suarez was a major signing, but he was not their first choice. I get that, but the signing still counts as outbidding others.

Seriously, Suarez was the 7th highest paid FA last winter. Bregman got the highest AAV in MLB the season before. The situation has changed, but we still have not signed our #1 target to a long term deal since 2016 with Price.

If your "seriously" was aimed at what Sato's signing amount might be, that's a different issue, and I admit I have no idea what he will get. Yoshida got more than anyone thought he would, but Murakami got less than what MLBTR projected last winter. It wasn't even close!

#4 Murakami estimated at $180M/8: he got $34M/2

#19 Okamoto got slightly less than projected: $60M/4 vs a projected $64M/4.

Sato seems way better than these two, and I suppose you think he'll get way more than we offered  Bregman. I'm not so sure. (Maybe he does.)

 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

Number 1 NOBODY is asking you to care. You guys crack me up. All I did was mention that all Atlanta had to pay in 2024 in actual cash value was $500,000 for Chris sale to win a CY Young for them, and for some reason ORDS you guys took it, and ran off with it from there. Bottom line in all of this is that Brez got his pockets picked, and fleeced by Atlanta, and Brez was so grateful he chipped in $17M. Now if this had been the other way around, and Boston had picked up a CY Young winner from someone who chipped in $17M for a SUSPECT you all would have been praising Brez to high heaven, but unfortunately that didn’t happen that way.Oops🙈..

Nobody said anyone asked us to care, and obviously you care enough to spew nonsense ad nauseum.

We took what "and ran with it."

The trade was a complete disaster, but you missed the part about there still being some logic to the deal, when it was made. Not a single person praised Brez for this trade in hindsight, and the ones who liked it, of grew to like it like I did after initially not liking it all knew it could blow up and that $17M was a lot of money.

Keep arguing against strawmen: that's your specialty. Keep ignoring that hindsight can vary from foresight and still be logical. It's a strange black and white world you live in, but to each his own. At least you seem blissful in your cocoon of ignorance.

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

How did Brez get Brez?🤔

Breg.

My bad.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, BP34Sox said:

It makes me so MAD when we get blown out by the Yankees. 9-0 and then 9-2? Come on! These losses hurt extra. I don't care if we're still in 3rd place, this is a huge feels BAD for me.

Welcome aboard.

It sucked- bigtime. Getting killed in both games made it even worse.

It's going to be a long winter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like Sato but apparently so do the "Dodgers, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Phillies" (according to online article).

Breslow may not be able to outbid any of them since he plans to be very busy training players already on the roster to improve their power strokes. 

[NHNative]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Breg.

My bad.

We saw and knew.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like Sato but apparently so do the "Dodgers, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Phillies" (according to online article).

Breslow may not be able to outbid any of them since he plans to be very busy training players already on the roster to improve their power strokes. 

I just hope Brez is not looking at the summer additions of AR and Mead and the return of Anthony for 600+ PAs as all or most of what we need to improve our offense in 2027.

[moonslav59]

Since we have pretty solid 13-16 everyday players on the 40, and we lack enough high quality batters to be a top offense, we should have the ability to add a big bat, and then trade from the depth we have and the current starter we replace can, in theory be traded, too.

We have a bottleneck at utility infielders, and while we cannot expect any grand return by trading one, we could trade something like Seigler + Slaten or Monasterio + Weissert for a better RP'er. We could trade Sogard, who i think more than just I like a lot, plus Duran for a better LF'er. Sogard plus Durbin for a better 3Bman. Sogard plus Yoshida for some salary relief and a better DH. This just theory: I get it. Other teams are looking at 40 man roster crunches and try to avoid 1 for 2 in November/December. I do think many teams might view Sogard as a FT'er in 2027 on their team. They may not like Weissert, Slaten or Duran and Yoshida, but we could plug in someone else and try to move from quantity to quality just a little bit with 1-2 trades, then make one major bat signing, and maybe together it will be enough.

[NHNative]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Since we have pretty solid 13-16 everyday players on the 40, and we lack enough high quality batters to be a top offense, we should have the ability to add a big bat, and then trade from the depth we have and the current starter we replace can, in theory be traded, too.

We have a bottleneck at utility infielders, and while we cannot expect any grand return by trading one, we could trade something like Seigler + Slaten or Monasterio + Weissert for a better RP'er. We could trade Sogard, who i think more than just I like a lot, plus Duran for a better LF'er. Sogard plus Durbin for a better 3Bman. Sogard plus Yoshida for some salary relief and a better DH. This just theory: I get it. Other teams are looking at 40 man roster crunches and try to avoid 1 for 2 in November/December. I do think many teams might view Sogard as a FT'er in 2027 on their team. They may not like Weissert, Slaten or Duran and Yoshida, but we could plug in someone else and try to move from quantity to quality just a little bit with 1-2 trades, then make one major bat signing, and maybe together it will be enough.

I have to repeat. I think it a mistake to trade Durbin and Sogard.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I have to repeat. I think it a mistake to trade Durbin and Sogard.

I really like Durbin, and there is a good chance he gets better.

My point was to trade Durbin & Sogard for someone better than Durbin?

You don't want someone better than Durbin?

Look, I get the point about thinking Durbin is way down on the list of starters needing an upgrade, but the theory is an upgrade is an upgrade.

Our top fWAR everyday players:

4.1 Rafaela

4.0 Contreras (will be 36)

3.3 Abreu

3.1 Durbin

1.2 Sogard

1.1 IKF (goner)

0.8 Gasper

0.7 Anthony & AR

0.6 Jones

0.5 Duran

0.4 Yoshida & Seigler

_________________

fWAR per game

.0308 Contreras

.0303 Rutschman

.0297 Rafaela

.0210 Abreu

.0202 Durbin

.0182 Sogard

.0170 Mead

.0130 Anthony (.0363 in 2025)

.0120 Gasper

_________________

Durbin in not close to being "the guy" we look to upgrade, but we should never overlook a chance to upgrade anywhere.

[NHNative]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Durbin, and there is a good chance he gets better.

My point was to trade Durbin & Sogard for someone better than Durbin?

You don't want someone better than Durbin?

Look, I get the point about thinking Durbin is way down on the list of starters needing an upgrade, but the theory is an upgrade is an upgrade.

Our top fWAR everyday players:

4.1 Rafaela

4.0 Contreras (will be 36)

3.3 Abreu

3.1 Durbin

1.2 Sogard

1.1 IKF (goner)

0.8 Gasper

0.7 Anthony & AR

0.6 Jones

0.5 Duran

0.4 Yoshida & Seigler

_________________

fWAR per game

.0308 Contreras

.0303 Rutschman

.0297 Rafaela

.0210 Abreu

.0202 Durbin

.0182 Sogard

.0170 Mead

.0130 Anthony (.0363 in 2025)

.0120 Gasper

_________________

Durbin in not close to being "the guy" we look to upgrade, but we should never overlook a chance to upgrade anywhere.

I hear you, but I tend to look at the human factors as well as numbers.

Its like that article just posted on Rafa. Lots of numbers and words to say little. It still comes down to the game and how. the team works as a whole.

Durbin and Sogard have heart and my guess is they are both a positive influence in the locker room.

Or---I'm just nutz. I don't have an answer, but we need an elite bat.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I hear you, but I tend to look at the human factors as well as numbers.

Its like that article just posted on Rafa. Lots of numbers and words to say little. It still comes down to the game and how. the team works as a whole.

Durbin and Sogard have heart and my guess is they are both a positive influence in the locker room.

Or---I'm just nutz. I don't have an answer, but we need an elite bat.

The easy solution is to just sign Sato and cross our fingers he's not like Yoshida.

I'm thinking we might need more than just Sato (or Suzuki.)

I'm a big Durbin and Sogard fan, but I also know we have to give something of value to get something of equal or greater value. I'd much rather trade Duran, Story and Yoshida, but we won't be getting quality returns for any or all of them.

I also really like Seigler, Monasterio, Gasper, Cheng, Arias and Story to take over Sogard's role. The idea of getting a better offensive 3Bman with Sato and then using Durbin and Sogard to upgrade another slot has some merit.

Ideally, we get Sato and keep these 8: Rafaela, Abreu, Contreras, Durbin, AR, Mead and Anthony and simply upgrade 9th slot some other way. IMO, starting Arias at SS does just that. Try and trade 1-3 from Duran, Story or Masa to save some money, so we can afford Sato and maybe Gray, but I realize this is not an easy task.

Adding Sato and upgrading one of the other 8 listed plus Arias/Story at SS is essentially the only other way to improve the offense.

Here is a question for you: assuming we add Sato (big assumption, I know,) and assuming you have to upgrade one other slot, which one (player) do you choose to upgrade?

C: AR

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead (Story?)

3B: Durbin

SS: Arias (Story?)

LF: Anthony/Duran

CF: Rafaela/Duran

RF: Abreu

If we can trade or bench Duran & Story, we'd have Mead at 2B or DH and Anthony in LF or DH, and the upgrade could come at any of the 2 slots: 2B/LF/DH rather than 3B (Durbin) or SS (Arias,) but is there a better slot to look at?

DH: Mead/Anthony

[NHNative]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The easy solution is to just sign Sato and cross our fingers he's not like Yoshida.

I'm thinking we might need more than just Sato (or Suzuki.)

I'm a big Durbin and Sogard fan, but I also know we have to give something of value to get something of equal or greater value. I'd much rather trade Duran, Story and Yoshida, but we won't be getting quality returns for any or all of them.

I also really like Seigler, Monasterio, Gasper, Cheng, Arias and Story to take over Sogard's role. The idea of getting a better offensive 3Bman with Sato and then using Durbin and Sogard to upgrade another slot has some merit.

Ideally, we get Sato and keep these 8: Rafaela, Abreu, Contreras, Durbin, AR, Mead and Anthony and simply upgrade 9th slot some other way. IMO, starting Arias at SS does just that. Try and trade 1-3 from Duran, Story or Masa to save some money, so we can afford Sato and maybe Gray, but I realize this is not an easy task.

Adding Sato and upgrading one of the other 8 listed plus Arias/Story at SS is essentially the only other way to improve the offense.

Here is a question for you: assuming we add Sato (big assumption, I know,) and assuming you have to upgrade one other slot, which one (player) do you choose to upgrade?

C: AR

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead (Story?)

3B: Durbin

SS: Arias (Story?)

LF: Anthony/Duran

CF: Rafaela/Duran

RF: Abreu

If we can trade or bench Duran & Story, we'd have Mead at 2B or DH and Anthony in LF or DH, and the upgrade could come at any of the 2 slots: 2B/LF/DH rather than 3B (Durbin) or SS (Arias,) but is there a better slot to look at?

DH: Mead/Anthony

Probably Story or Duran, but I have a feeling Anthony is damaged goods.

If he is done, we may be looking for more than just Sato.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Probably Story or Duran, but I have a feeling Anthony is damaged goods.

If he is done, we may be looking for more than just Sato.

Even if we dump Story, Duran and Yoshida, here is starting 9:

C: AR

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin

SS: Arias

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Gasper-Jones (Sogard-Romy)

But my question involved adding Sato (or Suzuki,) so that bumps the DH slot to Sato or we put Sato at 2B and move Mead to DH. Now, who is the guy you try to upgrade?

I could see choosing Anthony, due to his unreliability or Arias due to his unknown factor, but to me Durbin is close, especially if we focus on offense only.

Anthony (if healthy)> Durbin

Durbin> Arias (probably)

It's a close call.

Hey, adding just Sato and dumping Duran & Yoshida, while getting Story to agree to be the back-up middle infielder makes sense, too but the Story claim is concerning, and then that squeezes Sogard out of that role, and he might be better.

 

[NHNative]

We need to learn more about what is wrong with Anthony.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, NHNative said:

We need to learn more about what is wrong with Anthony.

They say he does not need surgery, but how do they know that, if they don't know what is wrong and why it didn't heal as fast as expected for what they believed the injury was?

[NHNative]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They say he does not need surgery, but how do they know that, if they don't know what is wrong and why it didn't heal as fast as expected for what they believed the injury was?

Yup--I heard there is more than one issue with the hand.

They are being hush hush it seems. If he is out, all scenarios change.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Yup--I heard there is more than one issue with the hand.

They are being hush hush it seems. If he is out, all scenarios change.

When is the last time a hand injury forced a player to miss two seasons?

This seems absurd.

[NHNative]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When is the last time a hand injury forced a player to miss two seasons?

This seems absurd.

Agreed and he is so young.

[moonslav59]

Some interesting pitching fWAR numbers:

Sox:

#15 Tolle 4.1

#20 Suarez 3.8

#26 Gray 3.4

#67 Bennett 2.3 (just 19 GS)

#85 Whitlock 2.0 (10th as a RP)

#110 Chapman 1.6 (15th as RP)

#135 Sandoval 1.3

#165 Bello 1.0 (1.2 as RP places 33rd)

Have we ever had three top 26 fWAR pitchers?

2004: #5 Schilling 6.6,  #9 Pedro 4.9, #29 Arroyo 3.3 & #77 DLowe 2.2

2007: #4 Beckett 5.7, #46 Dice-K 2.9, #65 Schilling 2.3 & #77 Papelbon 2.0

2013: #32 Lester 3.3, #40 Uehara 3.1, #47 Buchholz 2.7 & #55 Lackey 2.5

2018: #4 Sale 6.2, #50 Price & Porcello 2.4 & #65 Nate 2.2 (2 teams)

 

Ex-Sox:

#4 Sale 5.8

#30 ERod 3.2

#40 D May 2.8

#60 Wacha 2.4

#85 Drohan 2.0 (better than Harrison)

#100 Eovaldi 1.8

#105 Harrison & Newcomb 1.7

#125 Buehler & M Perez 1.5

#135 Pivetta 1.3

______________________

How about some 2 year SP'er fWAR totals?

#6 Sale 9.3

#11 Suarez 7.9

#19 Gray 7.0

#21 Wacha 6.2

#22 Crochet 6.1

#30 Nate 5.3

#34 Pivetta 5.0

#48 ERod 4.5

#57 Tolle 3.9

#70 D May 3.4

RP

#5 Chapman & Whitlock 4.2

#17 Newcomb 2.4

#43 Bernardino 1.6

#70 Bello 1.0

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Agreed and he is so young.

We will likely know nothing more until we see him batting in ST'ing.

[NHNative]

I am gonna throw out a guess. 

A tendon issue and a hairline fracture that was missed.

[NHNative]

Interesting that Tolle's fWAR over all value is highest.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Interesting that Tolle's fWAR over all value is highest.

Here is another view: fWAR/IP:

.028 Tolle

.026 Suarez

.020 Bennett

.020 Gray

.019 Sandoval

.006 Early

__________

.009 Bello

__________

.038 Whitlock

.031 Chapman

.019 Slaten

.017 Guerrero

.016 Miller

.015 Gamboa

.004 Weissert

________________________

2025-2026

.026 Crochet

.026 Suarez (2 teams)

.024 Tolle

.020 Bennett

0.20 Gray (2 teams)

.010 Bello

__________

.037 Chapman

.034 Whitlock

.013 Slaten

.007 Weissert

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I just hope Brez is not looking at the summer additions of AR and Mead and the return of Anthony for 600+ PAs as all or most of what we need to improve our offense in 2027.

I mean, that does involve replacing 1/3 of the lineup, and is an upgrade from Yoshida, Sogard and Narvaez…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I mean, that does involve replacing 1/3 of the lineup, and is an upgrade from Yoshida, Sogard and Narvaez…

Indeed, but we counted on 300 PAs more from Anthony this year and got less.

Don't get me wrong, I'm really liking the idea of full seasons from Mead, AR and maybe Anthony. That alone could be all the boost we need, but chances are someone gets hurt or has a sharp decline. Maybe it won't be one of those three. It could be Contreras, Abreu, Rafaela or Durbin. It could be the decent depth we got from Gasper (132 OPS+), Jones (178) Sogard (106) and Seigler (105) goes bad.

I remember thinking .700 to .720 from Narvaez, this season and maybe .725 to .775 from Duran. Something almost always goes wrong, and we need to plan for that.

I'd go hard for Sato or Suzuki and trade Duran. I'd kick some tires on dumping Yoshida and Story, but I know the chances are slim, unless we just trade dumps with another team- like Yoshida for Kikuchi.

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, but we counted on 300 PAs more from Anthony this year and got less.

Don't get me wrong, I'm really liking the idea of full seasons from Mead, AR and maybe Anthony. That alone could be all the boost we need, but chances are someone gets hurt or has a sharp decline. Maybe it won't be one of those three. It could be Contreras, Abreu, Rafaela or Durbin. It could be the decent depth we got from Gasper (132 OPS+), Jones (178) Sogard (106) and Seigler (105) goes bad.

I remember thinking .700 to .720 from Narvaez, this season and maybe .725 to .775 from Duran. Something almost always goes wrong, and we need to plan for that.

I'd go hard for Sato or Suzuki and trade Duran. I'd kick some tires on dumping Yoshida and Story, but I know the chances are slim, unless we just trade dumps with another team- like Yoshida for Kikuchi.

With the s***** free agent class, I’m hoping for Sato but not going to be surprised or disappointed if they don’t get him.  
 

Im not wild about: 

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras 

2b: Story

3b: Durbin

SS: Arias

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela 

RF: Abreu

DH: Mead (or Mead/Gasper or Mead/Yoshida)

… but I don’t think it would shock me either.  And I certainly don’t think it’s horrible…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

 And I certainly don’t think it’s horrible…

Not horrible = not a ring.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

With the s***** free agent class, I’m hoping for Sato but not going to be surprised or disappointed if they don’t get him.  
 

Im not wild about: 

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras 

2b: Story

3b: Durbin

SS: Arias

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela 

RF: Abreu

DH: Mead (or Mead/Gasper or Mead/Yoshida)

… but I don’t think it would shock me either.  And I certainly don’t think it’s horrible…

This also assumes no major injury,

I think we need a major upgrade. I doubt we get Sato or Suzuki, and I'm not sure any other FA would be a major upgrade. That's one reason I was suggesting frameworks for minor upgrades... like Durbin + _____ for a better 3Bman.