Breslow and Henry built the Red Sox built to beat the dodgers

[bobo52]

Red Sox are built to beat the Dodgers.  They have 4-5 lefty starters in Tolle, Sandoval, Suarez, Bennet and Crochet.  The only righty is Gray.  Just look at the Dodger splits below.  Ohtani is almost mortal with an 885 OPS.  Freeman is around league average against lefties at 719 and Mookie sucks at 589.  Dalton Rushing also is much worse against lefties at 692 OPS and Will Smith is even worse at 434.  

I think the Dodgers  picked up Skubal who is a lefty because they just didnt want the Brewers to get him so they dont have to face him.

I will also point out that the Dodgers will soon be on a big decline.  Betts already declining at 33 (they have to pay him $30 million a year until 2033),

Freeman is 36 and Muncy is 35.  

Ohtani struggling with injuries is 32 but they need to pay him $46 million a year (CBT payroll which also happens to be the right number) until 2033 when he will be 38.

Dodgers age is showing now as they are 5 and 10 in August.  A long season is tough on 35 and 36 year old guys.  

These will to just easily be replaced in free agency either - the payroll is already massively bloated and they have to keep paying underperforming players like Betts for a long time.  

 

2026 MLB Hitting OPS Splits

Dodgers 

 

Dodgers

Starters

Hitter	Bats	OPS vs RHP	OPS vs LHP
Shohei Ohtani	L	.915	.885
Andy Pages	R	.751	.880
Freddie Freeman	L	.943	.719
Max Muncy	L	.852	.851
Mookie Betts	R	.749	.589
Kyle Tucker	L	.688	.763
Teoscar Hernández	R	.708	.725
Tommy Edman	S	.928	.848
Dalton Rushing	L	.836	.692
STARTING 9 AVERAGE		.804	.731

Reserves

Hitter	Bats	OPS vs RHP	OPS vs LHP
Alex Call	R	.536	.875
Miguel Rojas	R	.533	.852
Enrique Hernández	R	.750	.761
Ben Rortvedt	L	—	—

[mvp 78]

The problem is that they may have to go through the Yankees who have been strong vs LH starters (766 OPS overall with Judge/Grisham/Goldie/Bellinger/Rice/McMahon all over 800). Rays have also been decent vs LH starters (754 OPS overall with Vilade, Diaz, Camiero and DeLuca over 800). 

[bobo52]

 

 

Quote

The problem is that they may have to go through the Yankees who have been strong vs LH starters (766 OPS overall with Judge/Grisham/Goldie/Bellinger/Rice/McMahon all over 800). Rays have also been decent vs LH starters (754 OPS overall with Vilade, Diaz, Camiero and DeLuca over 800). 

Here are charts for Yankees and Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay has a problem with LHP but Yankees with Judge and Goldschmidt are a different animal.  They hit well against both sides.

Interestingly right now - we appear headed for the Yankees in the WC round as we are both solidly the 4 and 5 seeds (the 3rd division winner is the #3 seed).   Only a total TB collapse (or collapse by Red Sox or Yankees) can change that.  Catching the Yankees would mean the series is played at Fenway - I think we want that.  

 

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, bobo52 said:

They have 4-5 lefty starters in Tolle, Sandoval, Suarez, Bennet and Crochet.

Decent chance that the RS aren't using either Bennett or Crochet in the playoffs.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, bobo52 said:

Catching the Yankees would mean the series is played at Fenway - I think we want that.  

Right now, that might require a 4-game sweep of our next series in NY.  Maybe 3-4 I could believe in.  We need to get closer.

[moonslav59]

I'm still eying the division win.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm still eying the division win.

8.5 back and just went 3-7. Seems unlikely. 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

8.5 back and just went 3-7. Seems unlikely. 

I don't get hung up on things like 3-7. How about the 35-12 record? We repeat that and we're in bid-ness.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't get hung up on things like 3-7. How about the 35-12 record? We repeat that and we're in bid-ness.

So, they'd catch the Rays if the Sox play .750 ball and the Rays play .500 ball. Even that seems like a lot. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

So, they'd catch the Rays if the Sox play .750 ball and the Rays play .500 ball. Even that seems like a lot. 

you arent confident that we'll be in "bid-ness"?

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

you arent confident that we'll be in "bid-ness"?

Will they play .750 ball with Bennett, Suarez and Sandoval pitching the way they have recently? 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Will they play .750 ball with Bennett, Suarez and Sandoval pitching the way they have recently? 

thats how you walk after taking a big poop

[vegasbob]

.750 win rate will be a breeze after Anthony gets done tearing up AA and AAA pitching. showing up in Boston around September  1

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

So, they'd catch the Rays if the Sox play .750 ball and the Rays play .500 ball. Even that seems like a lot. 

Sweep the Rays, and it's easy.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Sweep the Rays, and it's easy.

Per FanGraphs:

3.1% win division

7.0% win WS

It's more likely that they win the World Series than win the division. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

8.5 back and just went 3-7. Seems unlikely. 

3-7 is one way to look at it.  35-12 is another…

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

3-7 is one way to look at it.  35-12 is another…

15 game win streak incoming I guess! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Per FanGraphs:

3.1% win division

7.0% win WS

It's more likely that they win the World Series than win the division. 

Agreed, but I'm not done "eying" the division lead.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

15 game win streak incoming I guess! 

Just win 3 of every 4. No long streak needed.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just win 3 of every 4. No long streak needed.

That would get them to 95 wins. Only 2 teams in baseball had that many last season. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That would get them to 95 wins. Only 2 teams in baseball had that many last season. 

I realize it's not likely, but it's not impossible.

We could pass the Rays by sweeping them and playing .650 overall.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I realize it's not likely, but it's not impossible.

We could pass the Rays by sweeping them and playing .650 overall.

Did I say "impossible?" Don't believe I did! 

"8.5 back and just went 3-7. Seems unlikely." 

[moonslav59]

I didn't say you said impossible.

IMO, te Ray are not as good as their record. They have yet to have a long bad stretch. I think they have one in them.

They are 7 games over Pythagorean.

Of their 10 batters with 250+ PAs...

2 are over .799

7 are below .735

6 are at .703 or lower and 4 below .685. This site would be going bonkers if we had those numbers on O. Oh wait, we did have those numbers and did go bonkers, but we were under pythagorean, too.

Like us, they have 3 strong SP'ers (all at 3,25 or better.) I'm not sure Peralta is coming to the rescue. (7.53 last 3 starts)

Of course, the odds strongly favor the Rays, but I'm putting the FAN in fanatic!

[drewski6]

My opinion is that it isnt worth arguing about.  

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I didn't say you said impossible.

IMO, te Ray are not as good as their record. They have yet to have a long bad stretch. I think they have one in them.

They are 7 games over Pythagorean.

Of their 10 batters with 250+ PAs...

2 are over .799

7 are below .735

6 are at .703 or lower and 4 below .685. This site would be going bonkers if we had those numbers on O. Oh wait, we did have those numbers and did go bonkers, but we were under pythagorean, too.

Like us, they have 3 strong SP'ers (all at 3,25 or better.) I'm not sure Peralta is coming to the rescue. (7.53 last 3 starts)

Of course, the odds strongly favor the Rays, but I'm putting the FAN in fanatic!

To what win the regular season division?  I dont care.  And I dont care about who is better either.  I care about who gets hotter between now and October.

[drewski6]

I guess my thing is the closer we get to October, the less I care about our default talent level and the more I care about how hot we are.

Great teams who limp into the playoffs ice cold dont magically become great just because its now playoffs.  Maybe basketball because they stop dogging it on defense, lol.  And similarly , teams that are playing above their heads and are just okay from a preseason talent ranking perspective, but go into the playoffs on fire, dont immediately cool off just because "they arent supposed to win so much"

Right now, the focus should 100% on trying to get guys hot.

[drewski6]

Early and even mid season it is better to be good than hot because there is still plenty of runway between then and playoffs, but at a certain point, it flips.  In terms of improtance (lowest to highest)

3. Being hot well before playoff season

2. Being good

1. Being hot on the cusp of playoff season 

Id rather be okay talent and go in hot than be a good team that limps into playoffs.  Im not sure when it switches from "better to be good than hot" to "better to be hot than good", but that switch cant be too far away.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

To what win the regular season division?  I dont care.  And I dont care about who is better either.  I care about who gets hotter between now and October.

Winning a ring is certainly most important. Winning the Pennant is second. Advancing in the playoffs next.

Winning the division would be nice, and I'm eyeing it. I'm not predicting it or arguing with anyone that says it is unlikely. I agree it is.

I do think we have a good shot at the Pennant.

[Behindenemylines]

On 8/17/2026 at 8:19 PM, JoeBrady said:

Decent chance that the RS aren't using either Bennett or Crochet in the playoffs.

As of today the Sox would pitch Gray, Suarez, and Tolle would be your starters and Bennett and Crochet (If he is back) would be used out of the pen. I saw something today that looks like a potential plan if Crochet makes it back. Would be ideal opener for Bello and an option for a playoff game.

[moonslav59]

While the Rutschman deal was fairly short term-minded, for the most part Brez & Henry have been building this roster for the longer term. Some of the extensions given out have been roundly criticized, but the overall outlook on key players being under control at reasonable prices for 3+ years looks pretty solid.

SP: Crochet 5, Suarez 5, Tolle 5, Bennet 5, Bello 4 (Crawford 2, Houck & Oviedo 1)

RP: Chapman 1, Whitlock 2, Slaten & Weissert 3, TGuerrero 1, Moran 4

C: Rutschman 1, Wong 2

1B: Contreras, Casas & Romy 2

2B: Mead 4, Seigler 5, Sogard 5

3B: Durbin 5, Eaton 4

SS: Arias 5, Monasterio 3, Story 1

LF: Anthony 8, Duran & White 2

CF: Rafaela 5

RF: Abreu 3

DH: Campbell 8

Only RP, C and 1B need attention in 2 years.